STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the SPX printing a new all-time record high at 6187.68 and new all-time closing high at 6173.07. Some of the upside is due to window dressing for the quarter-end and end of the first half of 2025. Financial managers want to show that they own the hot stocks on the client statements so they buy them in the final days creating uplift in the stock market. The algo number is only a measly 7 points above the signal line so the bulls are in charge but walking a tightrope.

The robot remains most interested in commodities and utilities as the main drivers of stock market direction currently. Both are creating bullishness for stocks with prices above the GTX 3712 and UTIL 1020 bull/bear lines in the sand. If either fails, and the SPX drops below 6132 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short. If UTIL 1009 then fails, it will be lights-out for stocks going forward.

The robot also continues tracking banks, copper and volatility as the next tier of parameters impacting stock market direction. Watch VIX 22.69 because if price remains below, the bears got nothing. If VIX moves above 22.69, stocks will fall apart.

The month, quarter and first half of the year ends on Monday so the quant prints a prescheduled number Monday evening. The US Jobs Monthly Report is pulled forward to Thursday due to the Independence Day July 4th holiday on Friday when US markets are closed for fun, frolic and fireworks. The goal is to still have the same number of fingers next week at this time. The Roman Candles are ready to go.

The stock market typically rallies the day or two in front of a 3-day holiday weekend. Also, new money comes into the market the first few days of July as the new quarter and second half of the year begins usually creating buoyancy in stocks. With these erratic and unstable markets, do not have any expectations. King Donnie or Pope Powell may say something sending stocks wildly in one direction or the other.

Watch commodities and utilities closely and keep a hairy eyeball on banks, copper and volatility. This week you will hear a lot of patriotic songs as it should be. America the Beautiful.

7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = 
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the robot navigates through another sleepy week. The S&P 500 is teasing new all-time record highs but missed by a hair yesterday. The all-time high is 6147.43 and all-time closing high is 6144.15 both on 2/19/25. Price got up to 6147 yesterday but not above the record high and then closed at 6141 below the record close. Will the newspapers and internet web sites have a headline to exploit all weekend long?

Market metrics remain bullish across the board so the robot is sleepy this week idling along until something crazy will likely occur. The banks are pumped higher by the US government relaxing banking rules. Of course they do; it is crony capitalism filth. Copper launches into the stratosphere. Volatility drops faster than a prom dress.

Commodities launched higher but are now dropping in spectacular fashion. The quant is tracking GTX as the main parameter impacting stock market direction. GTX 3712 is the bull/bear line in the sand. GTX is at 3734 in the bull camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. If GTX fails below 3712 today, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play for the quant. If the SPX then loses 6107 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The second prescheduled number prints this morning shortly after the opening bell. The bulls are in charge but only by 8 measly points. Pay attention to commodities today.

Also, the quant is tracking utilities. Stocks will be in trouble if UTIL loses the 1020 line in the sand and will then likely fail bigtime if UTIL would lose the 1009 level anytime now through next Friday. UTIL begins today at 1042. The stock market is Shiny Happy People laughing but how long will that last? Practice makes perfect.

6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market as the daily King Donnie and Fed drama continues and now the US war activity in the Middle East. Traders are programmed to buy war so futures are higher this Monday morning about 5 hours before the US cash open. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 12 points above the signal line which is not much.

Banks, copper and the NYA index are controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating the ongoing daily buoyancy in the stock market. Bears need XLF below 49.93, CPER below 29.65 and/or NYA below 19532. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, the imminent turn will be in play, and if the SPX drops below 5953 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

To aid the bears, banks would need to lose -0.9% but XLF is up +0.2% in the pre-market. Copper futures need to drop -2.1% and are down -0.6% in real-time. The NYA index needs to lose -1.7% for the bears to growl. The bulls do not appear worried at all.

VIX above 22.69 and UTIL below 1018 will also create stock market trouble. 

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning. The stock market remains uber bullish especially with the bombs dropping. Barbara Ann. Or as King Donnie is singing all weekend long, "Bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran."

6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with another sleepy week occurring into the holiday today. Happy Juneteenth, brah.

The quant prints the prescheduled number and the bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. It is nothing to write home about.

As previously mentioned, the quant continues tracking financials, copper and volatility. All 3 metrics are bullish keeping the stock market buoyant. Bears need XLF below 49.93, CPER below 29.65 and/or VIX above 22.69. Any 1 of the 3 will place the quant in position for an imminent turn to the short side.

If any 1 of the 3 metrics turn bearish tomorrow, and the SPX drops below 5972 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The banks are key. As the banks go, so goes the stock market. You can check XLF and the bank tickers in the pre-market to see what will happen. Copper futures would need to drop about -2.3% to help the bears.

If stocks drop but the VIX remains below 22.69, the bears got nothing and the bulls will reexert themselves. If the VIX moves above 22.69, it is lights-out for stocks.

Utilities will likely come back into play next week. UTIL 1018 will spell trouble, same as this week, and price is at 1032. UTIL dropped to touch 1018 and immediately recover; if you blinked, you missed it. If UTIL loses 1018, stocks are in big trouble going forward and then if 1010 is lost, the stock market will go into a crash profile. Lots of fun is ahead.

For now, it is time to have fun and acknowledge the fact that slavery does not exist in America anymore but continues around the world every day; such as the Uyghurs in dirtbag communist China enslaved by Dictator Xi and his CCP henchmen. The Uyghurs will never see a Juneteenth; the world is an ugly place. Hold On.

6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the new week of trading ahead. The regular Sunday number prints and the robot is tracking banks, copper and volatility as the three key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating the ongoing buoyancy in equities.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are XLF 49.91, CPER 29.54 and VIX 22.48. Since the financials failed on Friday, but recovered, they are the major focus of the quant currently. As banks go, so goes the stock market. Check XLF in the pre-market Monday morning and you will know how the day will go.

Copper and VIX futures trade overnight so they will provide a heads-up on how the stock market will move. The bears need copper futures to be down -0.8% or more overnight to spell trouble ahead for stocks. Also, the bears need the VIX to pop above, and track higher, from 22.48, otherwise they got buptkis. Even if stocks sell off, but the VIX does not go above 22.48, the selloff is phony baloney and stocks will recover. Bears win big if VIX moves above 22.48.

If any 1 of the 3 metrics turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play for the robot and if the SPX is below 5963 and tracking lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on hump day.

The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday with Pope Powell bringing the tablets down from On High on hump day that will tell traders how to trade. Stocks are buoyant and bullish about 80% of the time going into a Fed meeting so early week will be interesting. Israel is now bombing Iran's oil refineries and storage facilities so oil futures should continue tracking higher. There were no oil installations hit on the first bombing when stocks were trading on Friday. Also, Israel says the war will continue for weeks not days.

6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = 
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a sleepy, slow, uneventful week ends in turmoil. Israel attacks Iran to stop its uranium enrichment and work towards building a bomb. The bullishness is off the charts these days. Traders and investors are buying any dip with glee even as bombs drop.

The quant did not print any numbers the whole week until today starting with the pre-scheduled number. After lunch, the banks failed. That drove stocks lower creating the afternoon sogginess. Banks recovered into the closing bell so the bears are left at the altar once again.

On Monday, all that matters are banks, copper and volatility. Both copper and volatility will trade overnight into Monday for a heads-up on what is going to happen. Banks are important and will likely send the stock market in the same direction they travel next week.

If any of the three metrics turn bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. The numbers of interest can be pulled from the robot after the Sunday print. XLF 49.91 is the bull/bear line in the sand that controls market direction. XLF finished the week at 49.96 only a nickel bullish so anything can happen on Monday.

No one talked about Friday the 13th today. Probably because of the chaos everywhere. Or maybe they are not superstitious like Stevie in the gang. Funky cool.

6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45
6/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 17 points above the signal line. The bullishness is off the charts these days with confetti tossed even if stocks only advance a smidgeon.

Commodities, copper and utilities are key. If the dollar pops going forward, commodities should sink. GTX 3648, CPER 29.48 and UTIL 1013 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand to watch to begin the new week of trading. Any one turning bearish will likely place the quant in position to go short.

For now, the bulls do not have a care in the world and all traders believe stocks will go up forever. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning; Friday the 13th. Bad Luck. Back in the CBGB days with the wife-beater tee-shirts.

6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
6/4/25; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
6/4/25; 3:14 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 3:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 5925. Copper and commodities jump higher to begin the week carrying the stock market higher. Today, sogginess reenters. Copper and commodities are weak.

CPER 29.42 and GTX 3640 are key bull/bear lines in the sand. GTX gave up the ghost late-day yesterday so the focus is on copper. Copper futures need to drop about -3.2% to help the bears but is down -2.6% right now.

If CPER loses 29.42, and the SPX drops below 5861, Keybot the Quant will likely want to flip short but that is a tall ask for today (SPX likely needs to drop about -75 points to flip the model short).

On the last trade that lasted about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant loses a couple percent. For the year, with only 20 trading days remaining in H1, the benchmark S&P 500 is dead flat. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +16% and the actual trading is up about +19%. Due to the whipsaw, the quant drops into the 1x ETF's again for 30 days because it senses that there is choppy slop ahead and it wants to reduce risk. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SPY. Stay alert for another potential Whipsaw back to the short side this week.

6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36
6/2/25; 2:51 PM EST = +60; signal line is +35
6/2/25; 2:23 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35; go long 5925 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +18.8%)
6/2/25; 2:09 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
6/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short from Friday. Copper futures explode +5% higher because the bulls know what they need to goose to keep the stock market buoyant. S&P futures, however, are down about -30 points. The roller coaster of mixed signals continues. The quant likely needs about 10 SPX points or higher to whipsaw the model back to the long side so if the bulls want it, they need to turn around the negative futures by about 40 points.

The VIX 22.16 bull/bear line in the sand holds a lot of clout. VIX is trading at 20 now (in the bull camp; volatility moves inversely to stocks) about 4 hours before the opening bell for the regular trading session in the US.

Bulls remain in the game and can take the ball back as long as the VIX remains below 22.16. If VIX moves above 22.16, stocks will fall apart.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell.

6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)