STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Friday was a mini Black Friday with the robot cruising along on the short side with the algo number 18 points below the signal line.

During the last hour of trading, volatility gave up the ship confirming the downside pain. There are many moving parts and undercurrents in the stock market currently.

Utilities, retail stocks and volatility are in the bear camp creating the Friday swoon. Banks, copper and commodities are in the bull camp trying to hold back the bears from driving stocks far lower. 

Volatility will trade overnight and play at the VIX 20.52 line in the sand. Price is at 21.51 creating stock market negativity. Bears need the VIX to move higher. Bulls desperately need the VIX below 20.52 or they got buptkis and face nothing but pain and misery going forward.

Bulls also need UTIL above 1113.84 starting at 1110. Volatility and utes will tell you if the bulls have any hope going forward. If stocks rally and the dip-buyers are throwing cash at the market, but the VIX remains above 20.52, stocks will reverse and fall apart again.

Bears need banks and copper to drop about -1.7% each to create a big downside push and begin a rout. Bears need XLF below 51.43 and CPER below 37.38 to create market mayhem.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Bulls are cheering for lower volatility and stronger utes while bears are cheering for weaker banks and copper to begin serious downside damage. Keep an ear to the wires this afternoon to see if King Donnie tries to pump the S&P futures that begin trading at 6 PM EST. Bring in the cheerleaders for Smells Like Teen Spirit.

6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST =
6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +25
6/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +7; signal line is +27
6/5/26; 3:50 PM EST = +21; signal line is +28
6/5/26; 3:21 PM EST = +7; signal line is +29
6/5/26; 3:09 PM EST = +21; signal line is +30
6/5/26; 2:03 PM EST = +37; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
6/5/26; 10:56 AM EST = +21; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market turmoil continues. Retail stocks fail back into the bear camp creating market weakness. Banks remain elevated helping stocks remain buoyant. Utilities keep hanging around the critical UTIL 1113.90 line in the sand on the bear side. Stocks will recover if UTIL moves above 1114.

Stocks will collapse if XLF loses 51.37 but price remains above 52 having a good ole time.

The bulls can stabilize the stock market and help stocks recover if XRT recovers back above 83.33.

Thus, retail stocks, utes and banks are running the show. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and utilities while bears need weaker banks. Traders watch the drop as Sports Team sings The Drop. Let it drop. Maybe a Black Friday?

6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/26; 10:56 AM EST = +21; signal line is +31
6/5/26; 9:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
6/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the chop suey baby games continue. The quant wants to flip long again with the algo number 4 points above the signal line, out of the gate this morning, but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move, so the robot remains short. If the SPX moves above 7598 tomorrow, starting at 7584, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, the imminent turn notation is in the title line again. Watch the S&P futures to see if 14 points are there.

The bulls had an easy time to keep the stock market afloat today with the US Monthly Jobs Report on deck in the morning. Traders are content to hold tight and wait for the BLS numbers at 8:30 AM EST.

The bulls came to play today, knowing that stocks were about to slip away. They pumped banks, retail stocks and utilities like madmen trying to keep the bull party going. Utilities and retail stocks fell on their sword after the big opening spikes higher. Banks, however, remained in orgy mode all day long gaining almost +3%.

The robot is tracking the SPX 7598, XRT 83.33, XLF 51.37, and UTIL 1114 lines in the sand. Retail stocks and banks are in the bull camp creating upside in equities while utes are in the bear camp creating downside for stocks.

Bulls need SPX above 7598 to flip the quant long and verify the bull party into the weekend. If XRT loses 83.33, it is only 20 cents away, all bets are off and the quant will likely not flip long.

Bears must prevent SPX 7598 from printing and pull XRT below 83.33, and then XLF below 51.37. This activity would create mayhem in the stock market.

Bulls stopped UTIL at 1100 overnight tonight within striking distance of the critical 1114 tomorrow. It is a battle royale. Lorde sings Royals. The bulls must push UTIL above 1114 asap or face grave consequences ahead. Watch it out of the gate in the morning. If you see stocks up and utilities jump higher and over the 1114, it will be a huge bull orgy into the weekend.

Hopefully, all that is clearer than mud albeit only slightly. Bulls need a stronger SPX to flip the quant long and stronger utilities will create euphoric bull joy.

Bears need to keep utes below 1114 and pull retail stocks lower. That will create a path to pain and misery for stocks. There was only one Big Iz.

6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
6/3/26; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short today at munchtime at SPX 7559. It is about time looking back at that trail of sordid trading since late May.  The quant wanted to go short more than long, during the time it was long.

The SPX prints the all-time high at 7620.90 and all-time closing high at 7609.78 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.

The banks and retail stocks both slipped on a banana peel out of the gate this morning. This weakness created a pall on the market. The bulls jammed the utilities higher to try and stave off the bears but failed. UTIL came up to test the critical 1114 line in the sand only to fail miserably and collapse to 1095. This price action in utes is a very bad omen and places a crash scenario for the stock market on the table going forward.

At the end of the session, the bulls were pumping retail stocks like mad and managed to push the XRT to 83.37 only 3 measly pennies above the 83.34 line in the sand. PVH takes the pipe in afterhours trading crashing -22%. Wow. PVH is retail so retail stocks in general should take the pipe tomorrow and XRT will likely flip negative again.

The bears need XRT below 83.34 to start pushing stocks lower and get the ball rolling downhill.

The bulls need to keep XRT above 83.34 and then push XLF above 51.32. These two metrics will tell you stock market direction tomorrow.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program gains +2.5% exactly reversing the prior trade's loss. The actual trading generated by the quant gains +5%. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 moves into double-digits up +10.4%. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out singing, "We're in the Money." For the year, the quant program is up +3% and the actual trading is up a couple percent underperforming the SPX by 8 percentage points. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered QID.

6/7/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/26; 3:59 PM EST = +21; signal line is +33
6/3/26; 12:27 PM EST = +5; signal line is +34; go short 7559 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +10.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +4.9%; Actual results for 2026 = +1.6%)
6/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = +5; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
6/2/26; 10:58 AM EST = +37; signal line is +36
6/2/26; 9:58 AM EST = +21; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
6/2/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 3:36 PM EST = +21; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 1:48 PM EST = +37; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 1:07 PM EST = +21; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 12:30 PM EST = +5; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 11:24 AM EST = +21; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 10:39 AM EST = +5; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
6/1/26; 10:23 AM EST = +21; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +37; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/29/26; 9:50 AM EST = +37; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/28/26; 3:36 PM EST = +53; signal line is +40
5/28/26; 11:24 AM EST = +37; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/28/26; 11:06 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40
5/28/26; 10:37 AM EST = +37; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +53; signal line is +39
5/26/26; 11:05 AM EST = +37; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
5/26/26; 10:06 AM EST = +53; signal line is +39
5/26/26; 10:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
5/26/26; 9:36 AM EST = +37; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/24/26; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +39
5/22/26; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +39
5/21/26; 9:58 AM EST = +53; signal line is +38
5/21/26; 9:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains long
5/20/26; 3:53 PM EST = +37; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/20/26; 2:41 PM EST = +53; signal line is +40
5/20/26; 11:30 AM EST = +37; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
5/20/26; 9:56 AM EST = +53; signal line is +42; go long 7378 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +7.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = +0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -4.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.3%)