Thursday, November 21, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Copper fails into the bear camp creating stock market sogginess. Bears need weaker commodities and higher volatility to increase the selling pressure. Bulls need to pump copper higher to save the day. The SPX is down 4 points at 3104.

11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +80
11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side today as the wild and crazy market action continues. Keybot flips bearish today but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. The bulls jam commodities higher to try and regain control of the stock market.

If the SPX moves above 3119, which will probably have to occur after 10:25 AM EST tomorrow (Thursday, 11/21/19), Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The quant is short but the bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The internal parameters of the model are creating market negativity. It is a bull-bear battle. Flip a coin.

The bears need weaker copper and commodities and higher volatility if they want to take the stock market lower. Bears must push CPER below 16.59, GTX under 2446 and/or VIX above 15.12, respectively, to create market carnage. In fact, you can gauge the amount of downside juice that is in the stock market by these three parameters.

If none of the three parameters turn bearish, the bears got nothing and stocks will rally. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, the imminent turn notation immediately goes away and equities will be falling. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will be accelerating lower. If all 3 turn bearish, the caution flag will be removed and stocks will be falling into oblivion taking out stops like they are not even there.

Pay attention to copper. For the last couple weeks, 'as copper goes, so goes the market'. Copper futures need to drop -0.2%, a marginal amount, to guarantee stock market downside ahead; futures are currently down -0.1%. Copper overnight provides a heads-up for the US stock market on Thursday.

S&P futures are down -6 on Wednesday evening in the States on the East Coast. The Impeachment Hearings continue into the evening. The US-China trade deal negotiations continue. The global central bank money printing continues. The beat goes on.

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at the SPX 3113 palindrome. The S&P 500 continues bumping along sideways ever since. The bulls jam commodities higher to try and save the day but stocks remain soggy and the quant remains short. The Impeachment Hearings against President Trump continue with Ambassador Sondland testifying and the stock market idles sideways.

The bears need GTX below 2446, CPER below 16.59 and/or VIX above 15.12 to prove that down is the correct direction ahead. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw move back to the long side. The bull-bear battle continues since the algo flips short but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw long again. Time will tell. Bears need one of those three parameters to fail and they will comfortably start walking the stock market lower. If status quo continues, the bulls will slowly regain strength.

On the last trade, which lasted about 6 weeks, the rally was huge. The Keybot algo program gains over +6% while the actual trading gains +13%! The benchmark SPX index is up an astounding +24.2% this year. Wow. Even more impressive is the Keybot the Quant actual trading up almost +41% this year obviously outperforming every quant model on Wall Street. Keybot is a smart robot. The quant exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. Let's see if down is the way forward for stocks or if a whipsaw is on tap over the next day.

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/19; 11:01 AM EST = +88; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains short
11/20/19; 10:25 AM EST = +74; signal line is +79; go short 3113; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +24.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.7%)(Actual results this trade = +13.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +40.7%)
11/19/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/19/19; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +79
11/15/19; 10:56 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79
11/13/19; 10:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/13/19; 10:21 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79
11/12/19; 3:36 PM EST = +72; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/8/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77
11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
10/31/19; 9:48 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +74
10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72
10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +70
10/23/19; 10:33 AM EST = +88; signal line is +67
10/22/19; 11:46 AM EST = +74; signal line is +64
10/22/19; 10:52 AM EST = +88; signal line is +61
10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +59
10/18/19; 10:32 AM EST = +74; signal line is +56
10/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +54
10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +50
10/15/19; 11:55 AM EST = +58; signal line is +48
10/15/19; 11:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +45
10/15/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +42
10/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +40
10/14/19; 9:20 AM EST = +88; signal line is +37
10/14/19; 5:26 AM EST = +74; signal line is +33
10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +30
10/11/19; 1:46 PM EST = +88; signal line is +27
10/11/19; 12:40 PM EST = +74; signal line is +24
10/11/19; 11:57 AM EST = +60; signal line is +23
10/11/19; 11:53 AM EST = +74; signal line is +22
10/11/19; 11:25 AM EST = +88; signal line is +20
10/11/19; 10:58 AM EST = +74; signal line is +18
10/11/19; 10:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +16
10/11/19; 10:08 AM EST = +74; signal line is +14
10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +11
10/11/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +9
10/10/19; 2:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +6
10/10/19; 11:21 AM EST = +42; signal line is +5
10/10/19; 9:57 AM EST = +26; signal line is +4
10/9/19; 3:33 PM EST = +12; signal line is +3; go long 2928; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.7%)

Note Added 1:09 PM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The news wires say the US-China trade deal hits a snag so stocks collapse. The SPX is down 23 points, -0.7%, to 3097 now sub 3.1K. The three parameters mentioned above, however, remains bullish. Bears need to turn at least one of them negative.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but continues champing at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Trying to keep it simple, if the SPX drops below the 3113 palindrome and trends lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins the hump day session at 3120 so that would be a 7 point drop.

S&P futures are down -8 about 40 minutes before the opening bell. The bears need a slow steady move lower rather than a gap-down open which may trigger a timer that delays the move to the bear side for about 90 minutes. Time will tell.


The SPX prints a new all-time record high yesterday, Tuesday, 11/19/19, at 3127.64 the highest number in stock market history. The all-time closing high is at 3122.03 from Monday, 11/18/19.

Yesterday, copper was goosed during the session to keep the stock market buoyant. However, commodities failed creating a path to negativity going forward. Bulls need to move GTX back above 2443 to stop the sogginess in stocks.

Bears need to keep commodities weak and at the same time roll copper over to the downside. Copper futures went negative about an hour ago. Bears need copper to drop about -0.7% which will guarantee downside for the stock market. Bears would also benefit from higher volatility; they need the VIX to move above 15.12 which will create market carnage.

The bulls need higher commodities while the bears need the SPX to drop under 3113. Bears will then create more selling pressure in equities if copper weakens and if volatility rises. Copper futures are down -0.3%. The VIX is higher above 13 at 13.36.

The Housing Starts yesterday miss forecasts by a tiny hair but the number was healthy. The housing recession guessing game continues. Weekly mortgage applications are released this morning and are not impressive.

11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/19/19; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

Monday, November 18, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 7 points below the signal line wanting the quant to flip short but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 3112 and trends lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Thus, watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bears can develop -10 points of downside which would spell trouble for stocks tomorrow.

The SPX prints the highest number in history today, Monday, 11/18/19, at 3124.17, the new all-time high and the new all-time closing high at 3122.03.

Copper failed this morning landing in the bear camp creating stock market downside. The bulls need CPER above 16.58 (now at 16.48) to prevent stock market weakness. The bulls need a +0.8% rise in copper futures which are currently trading down -0.1%.

Commodities are a major battle zone. The bears need GTX below 2446 (now at 2460) to create stock market negativity. If the GTX remains above 2446, the bears will not have much oomph to the downside.

Housing Starts drop in the morning and are uber important. The quant identified 7/17/19 as the start of a housing recession so the housing data tomorrow morning is super critical in determining if this forecast remains in play. Looking at the algo's data, the housing recession call should remain in place and ongoing since Starts will need to be 1.8 million-ish units and that is not going to happen. Copper and commodities are the main drivers of stock market direction these days.

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/19; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +79

Sunday, November 17, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 9 points above the signal line. The new record stock market highs keep printing day after day. The S&P 500 all-time high and all-time closing high are at 3120.46 on Friday, 11/15/19, the highest number ever recorded in stock market history.

The market bears need weaker copper and commodities. Bears need CPER below 16.58 and/or GTX below 2444 to pave the way for downside in equities. Weaker utilities and higher volatility would also help the bear case. Otherwise, the bulls will keep floating stocks higher. Since copper sits exactly on top of the bull-bear line in the sand and has to make a decision one way or the other, 'as copper goes, so goes the market'. Watch the copper futures overnight Sunday to provide a heads-up on US stock market direction.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers during the week this week one on Tuesday and the other on Friday.

President Trump unexpectedly saw the doctor last evening but the Whitehouse does not plan to release details. Wednesday is a key day this week since Ambassador Gordon Sondland at the center of the Impeachment Inquiry will testify and he has to decide if he will defend the president or save his own skin and start singing like a canary.

Sondland's testimony may be damaging to President Trump (since Sondland dealt with the president first-hand and his information is first-person and not hearsay) so markets may take notice. If Trump can weather the impeachment storm through the critical Wednesday testimony, he may be able to gain the upper hand on the proceedings and once again emerge as Teflon Don, or, the most damaging week of Trump's presidency may be on tap in the week ahead. The beat goes on.

11/24/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/19; 9:00 AM EST =
11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +79
11/15/19; 10:56 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79

Saturday, November 16, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The US says a trade deal with China is in its final strokes sending the stock market strongly higher. The SPX prints a new all-time high and new all-time closing high both at 3120.46. Stocks closed the day, and week, at the record highs. Traders will want to here details this weekend on this latest US-China trade news hype.

The bulls are in control with the algo number 9 points above the signal line. Copper keeps teetering in and out of the bear camp now in the bull camp creating stock market buoyancy. Bears need weaker copper to prove they can take stocks lower. As copper goes, so goes the market. The imminent turn to the short side will be back in play for the quant if copper turns bearish.

11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/15/19; 10:56 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79
11/13/19; 10:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long

Thursday, November 14, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short since late Tuesday afternoon. The algo number is 7 points below the signal line but the internal parameters are not yet all fully latched to permit the move to the bear side. If the SPX slides below 3079, it is likely that Keybot will flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

S&P futures are down -5 about 2 hours before the opening bell for the regular Thursday trading session. The SPX begins the Thursday trade at 3094.04 a new all-time closing high from yesterday, Wednesday, 11/13/19, so the bears have their work cut out for them. The all-time high at 3102.61 occurred on Tuesday, 11/12/19.

Copper is the key. CPER comes down to ...... wait for it..... wait a bit longer for it........ no, you really need to wait a bit longer........ 16.58. Keybot the Quant called out that exact number before it occurred. Of course it did; it is the best trading model on Wall Street. Thus, as copper goes, so goes the market. Copper futures are trading up +0.4% currently so CPER is set to pop a penny or two into the bull camp which may delay a drop in the broad stock market. The market bears need to see copper turn red. Commodities remain at play. The bears need GTX below the 2442 palindrome to cause market mayhem.

The bears need the SPX to drop below 3079 and down is the path ahead for stocks while the bulls need higher copper to keep the stock market elevated. The beat goes on.

11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/13/19; 10:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
11/13/19; 10:21 AM EST = +88; signal line is +79
11/12/19; 3:36 PM EST = +72; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78

Monday, November 11, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is underway. Happy Veterans Day to all the vets. Thank you for your service. The algo does not print any numbers during the Monday session.

The bears need weaker copper, commodities and utilities to create market downside. Bears need CPER under 16.58, GTX below the 2442 palindrome and/or UTIL under 818, respectively. This equates to a -0.7% drop in copper futures, -1.1% drop in commodities and -1.3% drop in utes. If any one of the three fail into the bear camp, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If one of the three fail, and the SPX slips below 3076, and is trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins the Tuesday session at 3087.

Copper is the most important parameter currently impacting stock market direction. Thus, bears want to see equities selling off in conjunction with the red metal dropping. If stocks drop but copper remains bullish, stocks will likely recover. If stocks are buoyant but copper becomes soggy, stocks will likely roll over to the downside.

The full moon peaks for the month at 8:34 AM EST tomorrow morning, only 12-1/2 hours away. The overnight scenery outside tonight will be the most lit of the month. Stocks are typically bullish through the full moon each month. This week is OpEx week so typically a Tuesday low leads to a Wednesday high. Thus, the bulls have the wind at their backs the next couple days, into hump day afternoon, but if copper, commodities or utilities fail, the bears will immediately growl. 

11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78

Sunday, November 10, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls maintain elevated equity prices. Investors are convinced that stocks will go up for the remainder of the year and into early 2020. The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3097.77 on 11/7/19 (trip 7's) and new all-time closing high at 3093.08 on 11/8/19.

The bulls are in control with the algo number 10 points above the signal line; not a large difference. The quant is tracking commodities and copper with great interest. Bears need GTX below 2440 (now at 2488) and CPER below 16.54 (now at 16.89), respectively, to create stock market weakness. The VIX moving above 15.38 and UTIL below 818 will also create market pain. If these four parameters remain happily bullish, like now, stocks should continue floating higher.

If any of the four turn bearish, Keybot will be in position to flip short and the imminent turn to the bear side would be on the table. The SPX LOD on Friday is 3074 a key market level for Monday trading. The S&P 500 begins the new week of trading at 3093.

Keybot did not print any numbers last week except for the pre-scheduled number. This is rare behavior for the quant. The stock market is on a pedestal, a plateau, contemplating a breakout higher, or collapse lower, but is frozen like a deer in the headlights not knowing which way to turn.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. These are historic times which may lead to epic stock market moves. Watch copper futures overnight. China or the USA may make trade statements between 5 PM EST and 6 PM EST this evening to influence markets when futures open.

11/17/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/8/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks continue printing new highs. The SPX did not print a new all-time high on Tuesday. Monday's record high for the S&P 500 at 3085.20 remains the highest number ever printed in stock market  history. The algo is idling sideways all week long thus far without printing any numbers.

Commodities and copper remain a key focus so look for weakness in these areas to signal weakness in the stock market. The bears need a -2.4% drop in copper futures to take the stock market lower but the futures are only down -0.2% currently.

The bulls are in control but the algo number is only 10 points above the signal line. Everyone is scratching their heads wondering if a shoe will drop.

11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78

Monday, November 4, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the historic price action continues in the stock market. The bulls are in control with the algo number 10 points above the signal line but this is not much of an advantage so the caution flag remains out. The S&P 500 is at record highs and S&P futures are up +8 about 7 hours before the opening bell for the US regular Monday trading session.

Bulls will keep floating the stock market higher unless the bears can create weakness in commodities and copper. Bears need GTX below 2428 (now at 2479) and/or CPER under 16.49 (now at 16.67). Bears need a -1.1% drop in copper futures which are currently trading up +0.5%. Retail stocks are important and may impact stock market direction this week.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning shortly after the market opens. The market joy continues.

11/10/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/19; 10:00 AM EST =
11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +78
11/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77

Saturday, November 2, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3066.95 and new all-time record closing high at 3066.91 on Friday, 11/1/19. November begins with new stock market record highs. The 3067 is the highest number the SPX has ever printed in stock market history.

The bulls goosed commodities and copper to catapult stocks higher on Friday. Bears cannot stop the upside rally until they weaken these two parameters. The bulls are in control of the stock market direction currently but the caution flag remains out.

Trader complacency, fearlessness and euphoria are off-the-charts. Floor traders formed a conga line at the NYSE yesterday singing songs and buying stocks with reckless abandon. The stock market is one big party day after day and everyone, even Aunt Tillie who is typically skeptical of Wall Street, believes higher and higher prices are ahead through the end of the year.

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77

Friday, November 1, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Just as Lucy pulls the football away as Charlie Brown is about to kick it, the bulls snatch away the bears hopes with a positive Jobs Report. Commodities leap higher driving the S&P 500 to new record highs. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3063.82 and the day has only started. Bears are running for their lives creating short-covering fuel. The bulls want to party today and through the weekend.

Bears need weaker commodities, copper and retail stocks if they want to create negativity.

Bingo. The S&P 500 motors higher to 3063.96 the highest number ever printed in history.

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +77
11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 2 points below the signal line signaling that the bears have gained control of the stock market but the quant's internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move to the short side.

Yesterday, commodities fail into the bear camp creating stock market angst. Note how the SPX fell to the 3026 called out by Keybot ahead of time, and poked down through this critical support for a few minutes, but the bears could not maintain the rupture, and stocks rallied above this low for the remainder of the day.

Bears need the SPX to fall below 3023 for Keybot to likely flip short. The SPX begins Friday morning at 3038 and the important US Monthly Jobs Report hits the tape at 8:30 AM EST before the opening bell.

Bears need weaker copper and retail stocks; CPER under 16.48 and RTH below 114.80, respectively, which will create market mayhem. Since copper is dancing on the bull-bear edge right now, 'as copper goes, so goes the market'.

Bulls must push GTX back above 2428 (now at 2423) as fast as possible to stop stocks from selling off. If commodities remain bearish they will begin infecting other parameters and stocks will drift lower.

For the imminent Jobs Report, the Keybot the Quant algorithm will likely perceive a 3.8% unemployment rate and higher as very bad for the stock market going forward. A rate of 3.7% or lower will not impact markets.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM EST. The algo wants to go long but needs the SPX to retreat about 15 points and more before the move to the short side is triggered. S&P futures are up +6 about 3 hours before the opening bell for the US regular trading session; the Jobs Report is 2 hours away.  VIX 12.98 (a 12-handle making for happy bulls).The beat goes on. 

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = 
10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +74; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
10/31/19; 9:48 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +74

Thursday, October 31, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and is unimpressed with this week's price action thus far. The algorithm only prints one number this week and that is the pre-scheduled number. Bulls remain in control of the stock market but the algo number is only 14 points above the signal line (things can change quickly).

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3050.10 and new all-time closing high at 3046.77 on Wednesday, 10/30/19; the Federal Reserve rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference day. The central bankers are the market. 

Keybot appears to be tracking commodities as the most influential parameter impacting stock market direction. Bears need GTX below 2429 (now at 2448). If this occurs, the quant will likely be in position to go short. The bears would need to send the SPX below 3026 today to create true negativity.

Today is the last day of October, Halloween, EOM. October will be an up month for the stock market (SPX). Keybot prints pre-scheduled numbers this evening and tomorrow morning.

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +74
10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls pump stocks to new all-time record highs. The SPX prints a new record high at 3044.08 and new all-time closing high at 3039.42 on 10/28/19. The bears are running for their lives creating short-covering fuel for the upside rally.

The algo did not print any numbers on Monday but will print a pre-scheduled number later this morning. The bulls are cruising. Bears need weakness in commodities and higher volatility. Markets may idle sideways until Fed Chairman Powell brings the tablets down from on high on Wednesday afternoon. The central bankers are the market.

10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72

Monday, October 28, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. S&P futures are up +8 with the VIX at 13.00 about 90 minutes before the opening bell for the regular US Monday trading session.

Bulls have jammed banks and chips higher, and volatility lower, to pump the stock market higher. Copper and commodities join the bull camp creating further upside joy as the stock market is set to print a new all-time record high.

Bears obviously need all these parameters to turn negative. Bears need the NYA to drop below 12800 (now at 13146) to create market negativity.

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow, the second on Thursday evening for the EOM and the third on Friday morning.

11/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/19; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +72
10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +70

Saturday, October 26, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls party to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 prints a HOD Friday at 3027.39 teasing the all-time record high at 3027.98 from 7/26/19 (only 59 pennies away). The SPX ends the day at 3022.55 compared to the all-time record high close at 3025.86 on 7/26/19 (only about 3 bucks away but price was above the closing record high during the session). The bulls are singin' songs and carryin' on euphorically buying stocks without a care in the world.

The algorithm prints the pre-scheduled number on Friday but has idled quietly sideways since mid-week uninspired to move in either direction. Banks and chips catapult the stock indexes to the new record highs. A steeper yield curve creates banker joy. The SOX prints another record high. Happy US-China trade chatter and the never-ending central banker money-printing sends stocks to the euphoric highs.

It is interesting that the past record highs in the SPX came with the quant at or near +100 but this time around it is at +88 which would be viewed as a long-term negative divergence. For now, the bulls are on easy street. The Fed jammed the VIX down to a 12-handle to create stock market joy. Investors are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again."

The caution flag remains out. Despite the upside joy, the algo number is only 18 points above the signal line so the stock market direction could change quickly. The week ahead is jam-packed with market moving events; Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the Fed decision and GDP data Wednesday, the PCE inflation data and EOM on Thursday, Halloween, and Jobs and ISM on Friday.

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +70
10/23/19; 10:33 AM EST = +88; signal line is +67

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday, but prints two yesterday and one today. The bulls are singing happy songs while buying stocks long and strong. The algo number is 21 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising. The SPX sits at 3000 as this message is typed on hump day before munch time.

Commodities just gapped higher with GTX above the important 2423 bull-bear line in the sand. Bears must reverse this joy. Bears also need weaker copper and must try to push CPER below 16.42 (for copper futures this is analogous to the current price of 2.63 falling below 2.62). Copper floats higher as Chile falls into chaos and anarchy which hurts copper production and supply.

Weaker chips and higher volatility will also create stock market angst. Bears need VIX above 15.70 or they got nothing. The bulls are feeling pretty good about themselves puffing their chests out as stocks float higher. The SPX is at 3001 and climbing higher.

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/19; 10:33 AM EST = +88; signal line is +67
10/22/19; 11:46 AM EST = +74; signal line is +64
10/22/19; 10:52 AM EST = +88; signal line is +61
10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +59

Monday, October 21, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The bulls goosed copper on Friday which maintains the overall market buoyancy. Commodities also jumped into the bull camp but then jumped back out. Commodities, in general, remain bearish while copper remains bullish.

Bulls need GTX above 2423 (now at 2417) to guarantee a higher stock market and 3000-plus numbers for the S&P 500. Bears need CPER below 16.38 (now at 16.53) which would be a -0.9% drop. Copper futures are up +0.9% as this is typed 5 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Monday trading session so the bulls are gathering strength and making it harder on the bears. Thus, S&P futures are up +7. VIX 14.24. Bears need VIX above 15.80 or they got nothing.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday. The caution flag remains out. For the Monday session, bears need weaker copper and the SPX to drop below 2976 to stop the bullish strength. The SPX begins the week at 2986.

10/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/19; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +59
10/18/19; 10:32 AM EST = +74; signal line is +56
10/18/19; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +54
10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +50

Thursday, October 17, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market meanders sideways sticking its head above SPX 3000 now and then. The status is quo. Housing Starts and Permits are disappointing. Analysts sip on Fed Kool-Aid calling the weak data a temporary bump in the road and say the numbers are great only coming down from super great levels.

The quant is idling along the last couple days not printing any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number this morning. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 8 points above the signal line.

Bears need a weaker NYA index and higher volatility to take stocks lower. The VIX has a 13-handle so the bulls are winning in today's ongoing tape.

Bulls need stronger copper and commodities to take equities higher. Bulls need CPER above 16.39 and/or GTX above 2424.05, respectively, to create euphoric upside in stocks. Prices are teasing these levels right now so the bulls must put-up, or shut-up. Watch copper very closely going forward.

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +50
10/15/19; 11:55 AM EST = +58; signal line is +48

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only 10 points above the signal line requiring caution ahead. Commodities and copper join the bear camp this week which creates stock market negativity. The banks and chips run higher creating market joy and of course the central banker jack boots remain on the throat of the VIX creating market buoyancy.

As copper goes, so goes the market. Bulls need CPER above 16.39 (now at 16.37). Copper futures are down -1.4%, tanking, so S&P futures are down -8 with the VIX at 14.13 about 5-1/2 hours  before the opening bell for the US trading session. Bulls also need GTX above 2421.80 (now at 2396) which will send the stock market higher.

Bears need to push the NYA index below 12775 (now at 13006) which will usher in stock market downside and likely set up Keybot to go short. If copper and commodities remain bearish, and the NYA bullish, status quo, stocks will chop sideways. The extremely important Housing Starts drop tomorrow morning. The beat goes on.

10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =
10/15/19; 11:55 AM EST = +58; signal line is +48
10/15/19; 11:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +45
10/15/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +42
10/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +40

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 34 points above the signal line. Volatility dropped yesterday so the bears had no chance to push the stock market lower. The VIX is down to 14.10 with S&P futures up +14 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular Tuesday trading session. Bears need the VIX above 15.85 or they got nothing.

Commodities fell apart in yesterday's tape. Bulls need GTX above 2421.80 (now at 2408) to prove that they can take the SPX towards and above 3K.

Stock market bears need weaker banks, copper and NYA index. Bears need XLF below 27.55, CPER below 16.37 and/or NYA below 12774, respectively. JPM earnings results are imminent which will directly move the XLF. Copper futures are down -0.4% but the bears likely need about a -0.8% drop before they can start growling. Any one of the three parameters turning bearish will send the stock market lower. If two of the parameters turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side would be in play.

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =
10/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +40
10/14/19; 9:20 AM EST = +88; signal line is +37
10/14/19; 5:26 AM EST = +74; signal line is +33
10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +30

Note Added 7:04 AM EST: China changes the goal posts now wanting the tariffs to end before committing to the so-called trade deal. Copper futures -0.6%. VIX 14.22. S&P futures +12. JPM blows out on earnings. XLF jumps 0.6% to 27.86 in the pre-market. Futures dropped on the China news but popped on the happy bank news.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new trading week is set to begin. The bulls are in control with the algo number 58 points above the signal line. These, however, are special and epic times occurring in markets.

There are five parameters in the algorithm that are sitting on their bull-bear lines in the sand. All are a hair in the bull camp, hence, the stock market rallies on Friday. Volatility is the most important parameter currently dictating market direction. VIX is at 15.58 creating upward movement in equities. Bears need the VIX above 16.03 which would immediately stop the stock market rally.

Commodities, copper, the banks and the NYA index are all dancing on a knife-edge as Soybean Donny tweets about a great ag deal with China that will take a month or more to put to paper. The movement in these parameters are having the greatest influence on stock market direction. The bulls are cruising, for now, but be aware that the markets can turn on a dime considering that so many algorithm parameters are sitting on their bull-bear lines in the sand.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

10/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =
10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +30
10/11/19; 1:46 PM EST = +88; signal line is +27

Saturday, October 12, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls pump the stock market higher.

Soybean Donny and Dictator Xi agree that China will buy more ag products and the US will not impose further sanctions so the stock market rocket launches higher. It is revealed Friday afternoon, however, that there is no written agreement only an understanding that the so-called US-China trade deal will be put on paper over the coming days and weeks. The Dow Jones Industrials were up 5 hundo but gave back 2 hundo into the close.

The bulls are cruising with the algo number 61 big points above the signal line.

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/19; 1:46 PM EST = +88; signal line is +27
10/11/19; 12:40 PM EST = +74; signal line is +24
10/11/19; 11:57 AM EST = +60; signal line is +23
10/11/19; 11:53 AM EST = +74; signal line is +22
10/11/19; 11:25 AM EST = +88; signal line is +20
10/11/19; 10:58 AM EST = +74; signal line is +18
10/11/19; 10:46 AM EST = +60; signal line is +16
10/11/19; 10:08 AM EST = +74; signal line is +14
10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +11
10/11/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +9
10/10/19; 2:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +6
10/10/19; 11:21 AM EST = +42; signal line is +5
10/10/19; 9:57 AM EST = +26; signal line is +4
10/9/19; 3:33 PM EST = +12; signal line is +3; go long 2928; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.7%)

Thursday, October 10, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 2928. The bulls pumped chips and retail stocks higher to turn Keybot bullish. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. Considering the ebb and flow of markets due to non-stop news bites on trade and from the central banks, the choppiness will likely continue. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw today.

The stock market bears need RTH below 112.80 and SOX below 1536. Either parameter turning bearish immediately stops the upside in equities and places the algo in position to whipsaw short. The SPX then would likely have to drop below 2907 to go short. The S&P 500 begins the Thursday session at 2919 and the nutso headlines keep hitting the tape in the pre-market bouncing futures up and down like a ping-pong ball.

The bulls need to keep retail stocks and semiconductors bullish while pulling the banks and NYA index higher and volatility lower. Bulls need XLF above 27.51, NYA above 12742 and VIX below 16.12. The degree of upside in the stock market is directly proportional to these three parameters if they turn bullish and how many of the three turn bullish. The five parameters above tell you everything about stock market direction for the next week.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the Keybot computer program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3.5%. The benchmark SPX is up about +17% this year with the actual trading generated by the Keybot the Quant algorithm up almost +28%. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. The fun continues.

10/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/19; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/19; 3:33 PM EST = +12; signal line is +3; go long 2928; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +13.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +27.7%)
10/9/19; 11:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
10/9/19; 11:13 AM EST = -4; signal line is +3
10/9/19; 10:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
10/9/19; 9:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +7
10/9/19; 9:46 AM EST = +12; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
10/9/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +9
10/8/19; 3:03 PM EST = -20; signal line is +11
10/8/19; 2:36 PM EST = -4; signal line is +14
10/8/19; 2:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is +16
10/8/19; 1:31 PM EST = -4; signal line is +19
10/8/19; 1:03 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21
10/8/19; 12:51 PM EST = -4; signal line is +23
10/8/19; 9:49 AM EST = -20; signal line is +25
10/8/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +28
10/7/19; 2:10 PM EST = +26; signal line is +30
10/7/19; 1:52 PM EST = +42; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
10/6/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +32
10/4/19; 11:01 AM EST = +26; signal line is +33
10/4/19; 10:31 AM EST = +10; signal line is +34
10/4/19; 10:07 AM EST = +26; signal line is +36
10/4/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +37
10/4/19; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is +39
10/3/19; 11:14 AM EST = -4; signal line is +41
10/2/19; 10:37 AM EST = -20; signal line is +43
10/2/19; 10:34 AM EST = -4; signal line is +46
10/2/19; 10:13 AM EST = +12; signal line is +48
10/2/19; 9:56 AM EST = -4; signal line is +49
10/2/19; 9:41 AM EST = +12; signal line is +51
10/1/19; 12:23 PM EST = +26; signal line is +52
10/1/19; 10:05 AM EST = +42; signal line is +54
10/1/19; 9:51 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
9/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +42; signal line is +55
9/29/19; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +55
9/27/19; 12:48 PM EST = +42; signal line is +56
9/27/19; 11:43 AM EST = +56; signal line is +57
9/27/19; 10:46 AM EST = +70; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains short
9/27/19; 10:14 AM EST = +56; signal line is +58
9/27/19; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +59
9/27/19; 9:58 AM EST = +40; signal line is +60
9/27/19; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61
9/27/19; 4:11 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/26/19; 3:45 PM EST = +54; signal line is +61
9/26/19; 3:38 PM EST = +68; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short
9/26/19; 2:18 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62
9/26/19; 9:55 AM EST = +40; signal line is +62
9/26/19; 9:15 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
9/26/19; 4:47 AM EST = +68; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short
9/26/19; 4:07 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64
9/26/19; 3:39 AM EST = +68; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
9/25/19; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
9/25/19; 3:46 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/25/19; 1:48 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66
9/25/19; 1:12 PM EST = +40; signal line is +66
9/25/19; 10:58 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
9/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +69
9/24/19; 12:28 PM EST = +54; signal line is +70
9/24/19; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71
9/23/19; 9:43 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71
9/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70
9/22/19; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70
9/18/19; 1:29 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70; go short 2992; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +19.4%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = +2.8%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +24.2%)