Sunday, May 1, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after an active Friday session that printed 7 numbers. Chips collapsed at the opening bell last Friday but retail stocks soared higher. The algo was itching to go short two different times but the internal programming rules would not completely latch to permit the flip to the short side. The imminent turn notation remains and the battle between chips and retail stocks continues.

Bears need RTH under 75.88 to create a leg lower in stocks. If RTH fails and the SPX moves under 2052, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls need to move semiconductors higher to create buoyancy in stocks and if SOX regains the 658 level the bulls will be celebrating by moving the stock market higher. If RTH remains above 75.88 and SOX below 658, the stock market will stumble along sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2065, the bulls need to touch the 2074 handle and bingo, stocks will accelerate higher into the 2080's. The bears need to push under 2052 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2053-2073 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are in charge but the bears are trying to make a move. The algo number is only 5 points above the signal line. Semiconductors and retail stocks will dictate stock market direction.

5/8/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/6/16; 9:00 AM EST =
5/1/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +76; signal line is +71
4/29/16; 3:21 PM EST = +76; signal line is +70
4/29/16; 1:45 PM EST = +60; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
4/29/16; 12:53 PM EST = +76; signal line is +69
4/29/16; 11:41 AM EST = +60; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
4/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = +76; signal line is +68
4/29/16; 9:37 AM EST = +77; signal line is +67
4/29/16; 9:36 AM EST = +93; signal line is +66
4/28/16; 3:29 PM EST = +77; signal line is +65

April Monthly Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-04 Available from Amazon; The "Panama Papers"; Central Bankers Active; Brexit Drama; Exxon Credit Downgrade; Dollar/Yen 106-Handle

The April publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-04 is available through Amazon (AMZN). The epic market action continues. The global stock markets begin the year by crashing and collapsing into 2/11/16. The prior monthly chronologies explain the huge crash from late December into mid-February. Then, as everyone was convinced that the stock market would go into free fall and sentiment was extremely negative, the bottom occurs and stocks rally from mid-February through April.

Italian, Spanish and Portuguese banks are a major problem in 2016 but the concerns temporary subside allowing for a recovery in global stocks. 
The US POTUS primary elections continue with Clinton the likely democrat nominee. Clinton may be undone by the ongoing email scandal. On the republican side, Trump and Cruz are battling for the nomination and the media is already awarding Trump the victory but they have been wrong every step of the way. The general election for the next US president is 11/8/16.


Central bankers such as the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBOC keep pumping stocks higher. The chronology explains how the central bankers are the marketThe oil rally continues in April as the US dollar index drops like a stone now at the bottom of a key long-term range. The "Panama Papers" are released exposing secret accounts of governments, corporations and the wealthy elite class. The Panama Papers information and developing scandals will continue for weeks and months.


The Brexit drama continues with President Obama stepping into the fray with unwelcome comments. The Brexit referendum vote is 6/23/16. Japan is in turmoil. The BOJ has taken rates negative and they print record negative lows. The dollar/yen pair drops to a 106-handle which reflects a stronger yen that hurts exports. Exxon loses its AAA credit rating and epic event.


The chronology describes the reactions to economic data such as the Monthly Jobs Reports in real-time. There is no other document available on the world wide web that records the action in such detail. Inflation, that the Federal Reserve has tried to create for seven years with their obscene Keynesian programs, cannot exist without wage inflation occurring so each jobs report is very important.


The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists in this format where the stock, bond and currency moves are provided and explained as world events take place in real-time.


The chronology records economic history preventing revisionist tampering in future years. Many of the same asset managers telling everyone to go long the market in 2007-2008 repeated the same mantra through 2015. The stock market topped in May 2015 placing anyone that listened to television pundits over the last couple years underwater on their long trades and losing money.


Analyst and strategist quotes and words are recorded in the chronology so credit or disdain can be handed out in the future. If a multi-year top has printed, the chronology serves as the most accurate accounting of the stock market topping process ever recorded in historyThe chronology is the most reliable and easy to understand source for explaining global marketsThe chronology is very easy to read and avoids using fancy ten-dollar college words.


As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on this web site as well as clarifications and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.


We are living through historic stock market and economic times. The daily chronology is the most accurate accounting on how the stock market tops and bottoms occur in real-time. The monthly publications are compatible with any electronic device and include an extensive Business Acronym List and Ticker Symbol List. The Acronym List is the most comprehensive business-related acronym list available on the internet. The chronology is not available in hard copy and only distributed around the world electronically.


Download this valuable resource today. Remember to support the KE Stone Series of blogs (Keystone the Scribe, The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant) through donations, the daily chronology book sales and honoring advertisers that support the original free content provided in the blogs. The blog proceeds aid charities.


The free blog content is posted in proportion to the advertising, book and donation income received. Thus, you folks working at the large money-center banks around the world need to open your wallets if you want this unique trading and economic information, that is not available elsewhere, to continue.


The KE Stone Series of blogs are viewed by 100's of thousands of people around the globe each month including money managers, investors, students, traders, historians, economists, teachers, current event enthusiasts, hedge fund managers, political junkies and folks that truly want to understand how the world's economic systems and markets function. All readers should support the blogs to expand the information provided.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long going into the Friday session. The algo prints one number today as stocks fell in the afternoon. Keybot identifies the retail stocks and chips as the two most important influences on broad market direction currently. The bulls need RTH above 75.88 (now at 75.75) to resume the upside rally. The bears need to push SOX under 659.10 (now at 662.69) which will create significant market selling. If SOX drops under 659.10, and the SPX drops under 2072, Keybot will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

For the SPX on Friday starting at 2076, the bulls need to retrace the Thursday drop to 2099 to regain their mojo. The bears need to push below 2072 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2073-2098 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. Pay close attention to any news on semiconductors overnight. The bears have it on a silver platter for the algo to flip short if the chips (SOX, SMH, XSD) cooperate.

5/1/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
4/28/16; 3:29 PM EST = +77; signal line is +65
4/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = +93; signal line is +64

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints the pre-scheduled number but no additional numbers. The algo number is 29 points above the signal line showing that the bulls remain on easy street. Bears need either SOX under 659 or JJC under 25.23 to create market weakness and Keybot would likely set up to go short if both parameters fail. AAPL laid an egg with earnings after the closing bell this evening which will hurt chip stocks tomorrow and send SOX lower but time will tell how low.

For the SPX starting at 2092, the bulls need to touch the 2097 handle and bingo, price will run to 2102-2103 in a heartbeat. The bears need to push under 2086 to accelerate the downside that will seek the 2070's. A move through 2087-2091 is sideways action for hump day and a tight range so price is going to pick a direction. The Fed rate decision is Wednesday afternoon so price is going to commit one way or the other from 2 PM EST forward.

4/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
4/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = +93; signal line is +64
4/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = +94; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls maintain their advantage in the stock market. The algo idles along without printing any numbers on Monday. Bears need weaker chips and copper to confirm any move lower. Watch SOX 659 and JJC 25.25 as two bull-bear lines in the sand. If the stock market sells off but these two parameters remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

For the SPX starting at 2088, the bulls only need one point of upside to create a several-handle acceleration and S&P futures are +3. The bears need to push below 2078 to accelerate the downside. The bulls remain in control. There is weak news concerning chips out of Korea and Europe overnight so SOX may be interesting today. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell.

4/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
4/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = +94; signal line is +63

Sunday, April 24, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algorithm is pegged to the ceiling at +94 (+100 is the maximum). It is rare for the algo to print this high, a multi-year event, so there may be something important and special occurring in the stock market. For now, Keybot remains comfortably long with all its parameters in the bull camp creating market upside. Bears need weaker semiconductors,  copper and commodities to push stocks lower.

For the SPX starting at 2092, the bulls only need a couple points, to push above 2094, and bingo, price will accelerate above 2100 quickly. The bears need to push below 2081 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2082-2093 is sideways action. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Friday is EOM; there is only five trading days remaining in April. The bulls remain in control.

5/1/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
4/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = +94; signal line is +63
4/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +94; signal line is +62

Thursday, April 21, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The beat goes on. The algo is idling along without printing any numbers over the last couple days. Market bears need either SOX under 657 and/or JJC under 25.05. The bulls keep cruising along without a care in the world. It is interesting since Keybot is printing uber multi-year highs at +94.

For the SPX starting at 2091 on Friday, the bulls need to push above 2104 to launch price to 2011 in a heartbeat. The bears need to push under 2089 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2090-2103 is sideways action. Watch chips and copper.

4/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +94; signal line is +62

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls keep pushing higher. Copper and commodities run higher taking turns slapping the bears in the face. The algo began flagging chips today. Watch these three key parameters; SOX 657 (now at 666), JJC 25 (now at 25.72) and GTX 2150 (now at 2222). The market bears got nothing unless one of these three parameters turn bearish.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 2101, the bulls need three points of upside, to poke up through 2104 and the upside will quickly accelerate to 2011. The bears need to push under 2092 to accelerate the downside into the low 2080's. A move through 2093-2103 is sideways action for hump day. The bulls remain in firm control.

4/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +94; signal line is +62

Quarterly Reminder

It is time for the Quarterly Reminder;

Remember to support the KE Stone Series of blogs with the button in the right margin to continue the free original content concerning global markets and world economics. Any amount is welcome, especially from the tens of thousands of traders and other market enthusiasts that monitor the blogs daily; it all goes to a good cause. This message is not directed to the loyal supporters to the site.

Remember to help your local food banks since there are lots of folks that are hungry in society; some are too proud to ask for help so the food bank is one discreet way they can receive aid. Children need food in their bellies to learn properly. Go through your kitchen cupboards and load canned goods into a bag and donate it to your local food bank; lots of people would appreciate receiving that style of beans or perhaps creamed corn that you no longer prefer.

Also go through the closet and get rid of old clothes that are still in nice shape without any rips or stains and give them to the local Goodwill or other thrift shop. The ladies there will be happy to receive any goods and it will help folks in need.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday trade. The pre-scheduled number prints this week bumping the signal line number up a couple points. Bulls remain in firm control with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. The +94 is an uber overbot level for the stock market but the band plays on and the bullish party continues.

Bears got nothing unless either JJC drops under 24.90 and/or GTX under 2146. For the SPX starting at 2094, any smidge of positivity will accelerate stocks higher and S&P futures are +8 so bulls will pop stocks at the opening bell. The bears would need the SPX to drop under 2074 today to regain their mojo and accelerate the stock market lower.

4/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +94; signal line is +62
4/18/16; 9:54 AM EST = +94; signal line is +60