Wednesday, February 25, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. The algo idled along on Wednesday without printing any numbers. Note how UTIL dropped today to 598 but bears would need a move under 586 on Thursday or Friday, or a move under 596 any day next week, to create negativity in equities. Bears also need either VIX above 16.20 or XLF under 24.10 but these parameters are firmly in the bull camp creating stock market lift.

The market bulls need higher copper and commodities to receive the blessing for higher equities ahead. Bulls need JJC above 31.95 now at 31.66 only about 30 cents away. If JJC moves above 31.95, the bulls lock in upside victory with the SPX above 2120 and running well into and through the 2120's. So watch copper closely.

For the SPX starting at 2114 on Thursday, the bulls need to touch the 2120 handle and the upside will accelerate (watch to see if JJC will provide fuel above 31.95). The bears need to push under 2110 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2111-2119 is sideways action for Thursday. As a general rule, it looks like 'as copper goes, so goes the markets'.

3/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/15; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as Wednesday trading is underway. Nefarious computer bugs are creating technical issues this morning but the systems are fending off the attacks and stabilizing. The bulls remain in the driver's seat. Bulls need copper and commodities to strengthen to send the stock market higher and neither are cooperating as yet. Bears need VIX above 16.20 and/or XLF under 24.10 but both remain strong.

At the Friday close and for all of next week, UTIL 596 will be a very important level. UTIL is above 600 so bulls are receiving upside stock market juice from the buoyant utilities. Stocks will weaken if UTIL leaks below 596 next week but has to fall under 586 for this week to cause market weakness.

For the SPX starting at 2115, the bulls need to touch the 2118 handle and bingo, price will be above 2120 in an instant. The bears must push under 2106 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2107-2117 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bulls are in charge.

3/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/15; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +52
2/23/15; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +51

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls are on cruise control. Financials run higher and volatility drops like a stone creating new all-time stock market highs. Copper is adding further strength producing a dramatic turnaround ot the upside. JJC is up to 31.82 and the algo identifies the 31.97 level as a critical bull-bear line in the sand. If JJC moves above 31.97, the SPX will launch above 3120 and higher. So the battle ground is copper, at JJC 31.97, which will tell you if the upside stock market rally has far stronger legs, or, if the bulls are ready to run out of gas.

2/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/15; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +52
2/23/15; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Tuesday session. The algo printed one number yesterday after the opening bell. It was surprising the bulls could not make further upside progress. The bears hold the SPX 2110-2111 ceiling. The bulls need stronger copper and commodities to gain further upside but the performance in these raw material markets remains lackluster. Bears need either XLF under 24.10 and/or VIX above 16.25 or they got nothing. The stock market will only begin and sustain a downward path if one of these two parameters fail.

For the SPX starting at 2110, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures and boom, the upside will accelerate several handles. S&P futures are flat and non-committal about an hour before the opening bell. The bears need to push under 2103 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2104-2110 is sideways action for Tuesday.

Watch financials and volatility. If both the XLF and VIX turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2103, Keybot will likely flip short. For now, bulls are fine with no worries but if financials or volatility turns bearish as described, consider the caution and imminent turn flags to be waving. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell. The algo number is 19 points above the signal line.

2/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/23/15; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +51
2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50

Sunday, February 22, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. UTIL is at 600 and will print above the important UTIL 586 level, in play for the entire week, which creates market bullishness. Bears got nothing unless they move UTIL below 586 and/or VIX above 16.60. Otherwise, stocks will float sideways to sideways higher.

For the SPX starting at 2110, the bulls need to touch the 2111 handle and an upside acceleration will occur beginning to target towards 2020+. So watch to see if there is a smidge of positivity in the S&P futures to create the bull party. The bears need to push under 2085 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2086-2110 is sideways action for Monday. The bulls are in control. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. EOM is Friday.

3/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/27/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/24/15; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50
2/19/15; 12:22 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50

Saturday, February 21, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo did not print any numbers on Friday. Stocks dropped like a rock at the opening bell but you saw that the VIX did not move above 16.60 so the bears had nothing. In addition, did you see XLF come down to test the 24.00-24.10 area identified by the algorithm ahead of time? Yes, the XLF came down and bounced telling you the bears had nothing. Stocks recover all day Friday as volatility dropped and utilities move higher. The SPX ran above 2102 so bingo, price jumped to the 2110 level.

The bears suffer another big blow since UTIL finished at 600. That number was good for the bears last week with the bull-bear line at 603 but next week the bull-bear line in the sand is 586 for all five days. Therefore, at Monday morning's opening bell, the bulls will immediately receive a thrust of positivity with the higher utilities since UTIL will be above 586. Bears need to push utes lower and volatility higher

Next week volatility and utilities remain the key market direction drivers (identified by Keybot) to begin the week. Exact levels can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/19/15; 12:22 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50

Friday, February 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. Yesterday was a sideways session where bears were pressing equities lower but could not push VIX above 16.60, so they had nothing, and then the bulls pushing stocks higher but they could not push UTIL above 603, so they had nothing.

Bulls need UTIL above 603 to confirm a strong upside path for stocks ahead. Stronger copper and commodities will also help bulls. Bears need either VIX above 16.60 or XLF under 24.01 to create market negativity. If utes remain in the bear camp, and volatility and the financials in the bull camp, equities will float sideways with a slight upward bias into the weekend.

For the SPX starting at 2097, the bulls need to push above 2102 and bingo, the upside will run several handles more targeting 2108-2110. The bears need to push under 2091 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2092-2101 is sideways action to end the week. The caution flag is out. If either volatility or financials turn bearish as described above, and the SPX drops under 2091, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/19/15; 12:22 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50

Thursday, February 19, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo is active printing three numbers today thus far. The markets initially sold off but the VIX did not move above 16.61 so bears got nothing. UTIL moves under 603, however, helping the bears and placing a ceiling on the market upside. Bulls need UTIL above 603 to light the way higher to more all-time highs for stocks. So watch UTIL 603 and VIX 16.61. The algo is now tracking financials in addition to utilities and volatility; XLF 24.02 is identifed as a key bull-bear line in the sand. XLF is at 24.29 creating market bullishness. Bears will roll stocks south if XLF fails at 24.02.

Stocks are staggering sideways and will gain strength higher with UTIL above 603, or, gain strength lower with VIX above 16.61. The algo number is only four points from the signal line indicating an ongoing bull-bear fight. Utes and volatility determine the winner. A spike in volatility would set the algo up to potentially flip short so a caution flag is in order as stocks stumble sideways.

2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/19/15; 12:22 PM EST = +54; signal line is +50
2/19/15; 12:03 PM EST = +70; signal line is +49
2/19/15; 11:08 AM EST = +54; signal line is +47
2/18/15; 2:17 PM EST = +70; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. The bears push VIX above 16.61 at the opening bell yesterday and began celebrating but minutes later volatility dropped destroying the bear joy. In addition, in the afternoon, UTIL moves above the 603 bull-bear line in the sand smacking the bears further. The bulls are cruising.

Bulls need higher copper and commodities to make further headway higher. Bears need either VIX above 16.61 and/or UTIL under 603 to stop the stock market rally, otherwise they got nothing.

For the SPX starting at 2100, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the S&P futures and an upside acceleration of several handles will occur. At this writing, about three hours before the opening bell, S&P futures are -2. The bears need to push under 2092 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2093-2099 is sideways action. Markets will float higher unless the VIX moves above 16.61 or UTIL moves below 603.

2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/15; 2:17 PM EST = +70; signal line is +45
2/18/15; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +43
2/15/15; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +42

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo begins the week without printing any numbers. Bears need VIX above 16.61 to place a lid on the stock market rally. Bulls need UTIL above 603 to create a new leg higher for stocks. JJC above 32.00 will also create bull juice. The stock market is greatly impacted by volatility currently and today the VIX and SPX are both higher so one of them is wrong. As volatility goes, the stock market will move inversely.

For the SPX starting at 2100, the first closing print above 2100 in history, the bulls only need one point, to push above 2101 to keep the party going so watch for any positivity in the overnight S&P futures. The bears need to push under 2090 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2091-2100 is sideways action for Tuesday. Watch VIX 16.61. The caution flag is out since, interestingly, if the VIX moves above 16.61, and the SPX under 2090, Keybot will likely flip short.

2/22/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/18/15; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/15; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +42