Thursday, October 30, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. Watch the NYA 10647 level with price a hair below giving the market bears the nod. Isn't it amazing how the algorithm can identify these key levels before they occur? The stock market will move higher if the NYA prints above 10647 and will move lower if the NYA remains under 10647. Copper is also key; the JJC 37.16 level. Note how JJC sunk lower closing at 37.19 waiting for today to decide direction. Again, isn't it amazing how Keybot can identify these levels ahead of time? The stock market will move higher if JJC stays above 37.16 and will move lower if JJC drops under 37.16. At this writing about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell, copper is collapsing over -1% and S&P futures are -9. JJC will fail after the opening bell providing bear fuel.

For the SPX starting at 1982, the bulls need to push above 1991 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1969 to accelerate the downside. Even with the weak futures, the projected drop in the SPX would only be around 1972-ish. The market bears will need several more points to create a strong downside slide. A move through 1970-1990 is sideways action.

The bulls are driving the bus but the bears are fighting back after receiving a beating during the last couple weeks. Copper should fail today which provides downside market juice. It is not enough to flip the model to the short side. The algo is tracking semiconductors; SOX 613. SOX price is at 624 well above the 613 bull-bear line in the sand and the market bears probably need this to fail for the algo to be in position to flip to the short side.

11/2/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/29/14; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +10
10/29/14; 3:46 PM EST = +60; signal line is +7
10/29/14; 2:05 PM EST = +46; signal line is +3
10/29/14; 1:58 PM EST = +60; signal line is -0
10/29/14; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is -3
10/28/14; 3:06 PM EST = +60; signal line is -6

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears are slapped in the face during a late session melt-up. The NYA moves above the 10646 line in the sand (40-week MA) which signals a cyclical bull market ahead crushing the bear's hope for extended downside. The bulls bludgeoned the bears today using copper and semiconductors early in the day and the NYA above the 40-week MA to unleash the market melt-up during the last hour of trading. 

NYA 10646 is key at the opening bell for Wednesday and the bears must send the NYA under 10646 as soon as possible, otherwise, the SPX will be headed to 2000+. Also watch copper in overnight trading since the bears need to push JJC under 37.16 (now at 37.38 creating bullishness in stocks). A 22 cent drop is -0.6% so this is the magic percentage that bears need to see copper drop by overnight. The algo is also tracking volatility. Watch VIX 13.96 (now at 14.52 creating negativity). If VIX drops under 13.96 the SPX will explode higher above 2000.

For the SPX starting at 1985 closing at the highs in the Tuesday session, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures since this will accelerate the upside several handles through the strong 1985-1986 strong resistance and target 1998. So watch to see if the overnight S&P futures are positive, or not. The bears need to push under 1964 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so at the same time bears will focus on beating copper lower overnight as well as sending the NYA and semiconductors lower. A move through SPX 1965-1984 is sideways action for Wednesday.

The bears were beaten severely Tuesday and will have to fight back on Wednesday. The bears need NYA 10646 and/or JJC 37.16 when the opening bell rings, otherwise, the bears will have to bend over and receive further beatings. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 66 points above the signal line.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 3:06 PM EST = +60; signal line is -6
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls slap the bears in the face with higher copper from the get-go. JJC is above the 37.16 bull-bear line in the sand creating upside thrust. Semi's head higher creating more bull joy. The algo number is now 54 points above the signal line with the bulls cruising without a care in the world.

Bulls receive more upside juice with stronger copper and semi's and NYA moving above 10650. Bears need to push JJC under 37.16 as soon as possible or they got nothing so pay attention to copper today.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -8
10/28/14; 9:36 AM EST = +41; signal line is -11
10/27/14; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the aglo is very active printing five numbers to begin the new week of trading. Despite the flat move in the broad indexes in Monday trading, the bulls have strongly boosted their push higher for equities. In the afternoon, the SOX (semiconductors) moves above the 612.95 bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot which guarantees buoyancy in markets. Bears will need to push SOX under 612.95 to stop the upside rally, otherwise, they got nothing.

The bulls are very close to creating further upside strength. Copper trades higher this morning which will send JJC higher. The bull-bear line in the sand is JJC 37.16 with price beginning at 37.00. Equities will move strongly higher if JJC moves above 37.16 only sixteen pennies away. The bulls will also receive strength if NYA moves above 10650. So its all going the bulls way for the last couple weeks.

For the SPX starting at 1962, the bulls need to touch the 1965 handle and this will create an upside acceleration. S&P futures are +10 at this writing about three hours before the opening bell easily able to punch up through the 1965. The bears need to push under 1951 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1952-1964 is sideways action but will only occur if semiconductors are weak today.

The bulls are cruising with the bears locked in the trunk. SOX under 612.95 will stop the upside rally, otherwise, equities will continue floating higher. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number one-half hour after the opening bell.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/14; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is -14
10/27/14; 1:46 PM EST = +9; signal line is -15
10/27/14; 12:41 PM EST = +25; signal line is -16
10/27/14; 11:42 AM EST = +9; signal line is -18
10/27/14; 11:25 AM EST = +25; signal line is -18
10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is -20

Sunday, October 26, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. Monday begins with a fight between semiconductors and financials. The algo is focusing on the chips as the major determinant in broad market direction; the SOX 612.93 line in the sand. The SOX begins at 612.05 so if the semi's overtake the 612.93 level, less than one point away, the bulls will catapult markets higher and not look back. Watch XLF 22.90. XLF begins at 23.10 causing bullishness so market bears need weaker banks and the XLF under 22.90 to get their downside mojo back. Also watch NYA 10635 which would signal a far higher stock market going forward. If NYA remains under 10635, equities should weaken over time and roll back over to the downside.

For the SPX starting at 1965, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the overnight futures and the upside party continues with a several handle acceleration higher. The bears need to push the SPX under 1946 to regain their mojo. A move through 1947-1964 is sideways to begin the week. Bulls win with SOX 612.93. Bears win with XLF 22.90. Chips and financials rule the roost so listen for any news on semicondutors and banks. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday.

11/2/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is -20
10/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is -21

Saturday, October 25, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The financials, XLF, leap above 22.89 at the opening bell, so voila, the fix was in, and the bulls sent the broad indexes higher. The algo is now tracking semiconductors, financials, the NYA Index and copper. It appears the chips, SOX, will be the key influence on market direction at Monday's opening bell. The areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The bulls are cruising.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is -21
10/23/14; 3:59 PM EST = -7; signal line is -22

Thursday, October 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears fight back late in the session sending the XLF down to 22.88 one penny under the critical 22.89 line in the sand identified by the algo. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can identify these key levels before they occur? So the pivot with financials will determine market direction from the get-go on Friday. Higher banks and higher stocks; lower banks and lower stocks. The bears likely need weaker retail stocks (RTH to move under 62.00) to place the model in a position to go short.

For Friday with the SPX starting at 1951, the bulls need to touch the 1962 handle and a strong upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1931 to accelerate the downside. The S&P futures are -11 on Thursday evening in the States dropping due to a confirmed Ebola infection in New York City. A move through 1932-1961 is sideways action for Friday.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/23/14; 3:59 PM EST = -7; signal line is -22
10/23/14; 10:20 AM EST = +9; signal line is -22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints a number to begin the day sending the bulls 31 points above the signal line and cruising higher. Watch the XLF 22.89 bull-bear line in the sand. XLF moves above this morning creating the strong bull fuel enabling equities to print at the highs today. The day will finish strong if XLF moves higher above 23 and higher. If XLF leaks lower and drops back under 22.89, the stock market will leak lower. The bulls are in charge. XLF is 22.97 now eight cents above the 22.89 bull-bear level so the bears are getting slapped around. The SPX should run to the 1958 resistance and if that gives way the 1960-1961 R level is next.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/23/14; 10:20 AM EST = +9; signal line is -22
10/22/14; 12:21 PM EST = -7; signal line is -22

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints two numbers today around lunch time. The financials, XLF, punched up through 22.90 but could not hold it and once the banks rolled over the broad market followed along lower. XLF 22.90 remains key. Also SPX 1897. Bulls need to move the XLF above 22.90 to continue the upside party. Bears need to push the SPX under 1897 to increase the selling pressure. Weaker retail and utility stocks will also help bears.

For the SPX starting at 1927, the bears need any smidge of negativity and the downside will accelerate. Watch the overnight S&P futures. The bulls need to retrace today's down move to 1949 to regain their mojo. This is a difficult task so bulls will focus on boosting financial stocks. A move through SPX 1928-1948 is sideways action for Thursday. The bulls remain comfortably in control.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/22/14; 12:21 PM EST = -7; signal line is -22
10/22/14; 11:27 AM EST = +9; signal line is -22
10/21/14; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -23

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls slap the bears silly from start to finish in the Tuesday session. The algo printed one number gaining strength up to -7. RTH exploded higher at the opening bell and an upside party followed; the biggest day of the year for equities. For the Wednesday session, it appears the algo is most focused on financials. Watch XLF 22.90 as the bull-bear line in the sand. XLF begins at 22.87 only three pennies on the bear side. If XLF stays under 22.90 and leaks lower, the upside broad market rally will stall and the broad indexes will flatten out sideways with a downward bias. If XLF moves above 22.90, only three pennies away, the stock market will explode into a sustainable and extended upside move and the bears will be toast.

For the SPX starting at 1941, the bulls only need to push above 1942.50 less than two points higher and an upside acceleration will occur to 1951. So watch to see if the S&P futures hand the bulls a couple points overnight, or not. The bears need to retrace Tuesday's large up move, a formidable task, so instead the bears will focus on pushing financials and semiconductors lower. If either XLF or SOX, respectively, moves higher, the bears will fold like a cheap suit. The bulls are driving the bus and they ran over a few bears today. For Wednesday the financials, the pivot from XLF 22.90, will determine the broad market direction forward. Watch it like a hawk and listen for any news, good or bad, concerning the banks.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/21/14; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -23
10/20/14; 2:12 PM EST = -23; signal line is -24; go long 1900; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +2.8%)(Keybot this trade = +2.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.9%)(Actual this trade = +2.3%; Actual for 2014 = +9.7%)