Sunday, September 25, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

10/2/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
9/30/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/16; 7:00 PM EST = +65; signal line is +37
9/22/16; 1:01 PM EST = +65; signal line is +36
9/22/16; 11:06 AM EST = +79; signal line is +35
9/22/16; 10:58 AM EST = +65; signal line is +34
9/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +33
9/21/16; 2:06 PM EST = +65; signal line is +32
9/21/16; 1:51 PM EST = +51; signal line is +31
9/21/16; 11:02 AM EST = +35; signal line is +31
9/21/16; 10:06 AM EST = +49; signal line is +32
9/20/16; 11:37 AM EST = +35; signal line is +32
9/20/16; 9:38 AM EST = +51; signal line is +33
9/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = +35; signal line is +33
9/19/16; 9:36 AM EST = +35; signal line is +34; go long 2148; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +5.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = +1.0%; Actual results for 2016 = +18.7%)
9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +34

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Quarterly Reminder September 2016

It's time for the Quarterly Reminder,

The KE Stone blogs (Keybot the Quant; Keystone Speculator; Keystone the Scribe) generate huge international interest with thousands of daily followers and continue to increase but the support does not match the strong interest. At the same time, ad blocking software continues to destroy free original content on the internet.

Daily updates to the Keystone the Scribe website are suspended but the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics monthly publications will continue through Amazon. The September Daily Chronology 2016-09 will be published and available internationally on 10/1/16. The October release is tentatively set for a 11/5/16 publication date.


The Keybot the Quant algorithm updates are suspended. Ditto all the charts and valuable technical analysis on the Keystone Speculator site. The support for the sites do not match the thousands of daily users. Proceeds from the blogs go to charity.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short heading into the new week of trading. Late in Friday trading utilities, UTIL, ran higher to test the 672.35 level that Keybot called out before it happened. UTIL was unable to punch up through and failed the last few minutes into the closing bell. It is astounding that the model is able to identify these levels ahead of time. For the new week ahead, the UTIL 672.35 is no longer applicable and instead the 680.62 level is in play and price begins at 665. Thus, the utes will exert bearishness on the stock market. Bulls will be winning big in the week ahead if UTIL moves above 681.

The algo is tracking financials, copper and volatility as the three most influential parameters impacting broad stock market direction currently. The market bulls win if XLF (banks) moves above 23.76 or if VIX (volatility) drops under 14.50. The market bears win if JJC drops under 24.27 so watch to see how copper trades overnight into Monday.

For the SPX starting at 2139, the bulls need to push above 2146 to accelerate the upside. If XLF pushes above 23.76 and SPX moves above 2146, Keybot will likely flip to the long side, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The bears need to push the SPX under 2131 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2132-2145 is sideways action to begin the week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled on Tuesday morning but updates will no longer be provided due to lack of support for the site. The KE Stone blogs (Keybot the Quant; Keystone Speculator; Keystone the Scribe) generate huge international interest with thousands of daily followers and continue to increase but the support does not match the strong interest.

9/25/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/16; 9:00 AM EST =
9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +34
9/16/16; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +35
9/16/16; 3:54 PM EST = +35; signal line is +36
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST = +19; signal line is +36
9/16/16; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +37
9/15/16; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +39

Thursday, September 15, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo prints one number thus far today with the algo number only 3 points under the signal line. Bulls and bears are fighting for control of markets. The bulls push XLF above 23.84 so stocks rally. Bears need XLF under 23.84 or they got nothing. Bulls need to push utilities, retail stocks and commodities higher but the three parameters are not yet cooperating. The beat goes on.

9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/15/16; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +39
9/14/16; 3:28 PM EST = +20; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Thursday session. The algo prints four numbers in yesterday's trade. Note that the algo number came within 5 points of the signal line representing a market that may want to float higher.

Copper catapults higher creating lift in stocks. JJC is above the important 24.25 level identified by Keybot. Financials collapse under Keybot's key level at XLF 23.84 into yesterday's closing bell which creates broad stock market negativity. It is amazing how Keybot can call out the important parameters and specific levels before they occur. If you are not impressed, you should be.

XLF 23.84 tells the market story. Stocks will rally if XLF moves higher. The bears will create market negativity if XLF remains under 23.84 heading lower. Bears will also benefit if JJC drops under 24.25. Bulls will be happy with stocks rallying if copper remains strong and if financials rally.

For the SPX starting at 2126, the bulls need to push above 2141 to accelerate the upside while the bears need to push below 2120 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2121-2140 is sideways action for Thursday. Watch the banks.

9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/14/16; 3:28 PM EST = +20; signal line is +39
9/14/16; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41
9/14/16; 10:02 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
9/14/16; 9:38 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43
9/13/16; 1:18 PM EST = +20; signal line is +44

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. XLF 23.84 remains the key to the market. Price is at 23.88 creating lift in stocks. Bears need to push XLF under 23.84 and that will seal the negative fate for equities. If XLF remains above 23.84, stocks will float higher going forward.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 2127, the bulls need to push above 2150 to regain their mojo, a formidable task. Instead, the bulls will focus on pushing the banks higher. The bears need to push under SPX 2120 to accelerate the downside that will slice through 2118 in an instant and seek 2110. A move through 2121-2149 is sideways action.

9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/13/16; 1:18 PM EST = +20; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the fight at XLF 23.84 continues. Note that equities are down near the lows but XLF comes back down to 23.88 not testing the 23.84. Keybot only sees 1's and 0's but this behavior may hint that the bulls are planning a mini relief rally. XLF 23.84 is key. Bulls need to drive volatility lower and utilities, copper, and commodities higher. The bears remain in control with the algo number 24 points under the signal line.

9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/13/16; 1:18 PM EST = +20; signal line is +44
9/13/16; 12:57 PM EST = +4; signal line is +45
9/13/16; 12:12 PM EST = +20; signal line is +47
9/13/16; 11:55 AM EST = +4; signal line is +49
9/12/16; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Tuesday session reverses the Monday joy in stocks. Keybot does not print any numbers yet today but the algo is tracking financials as the key parameter determining broad market direction. Watch the XLF 23.84 bull-bear line in the sand like a hawk. Stocks may drop into free fall if XLF 23.84 fails, at the least another strong down leg will occur. Bulls can continue to set the stage for a recover if they hold the XLF 23.84 support.

XLF is at ....... wait for it........ 23.84. Bounce or die. SPX is at 2127. XLF 21.84 is telling the market story as this is typed.

9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/12/16; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +52

Monday, September 12, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a big snap-back rally occurs to begin the week. Keybot prints one number which drives the model more bearish. It is surprising to see the rally after the utilities failed. After the opening bell, both the semiconductors and financials were on the verge of creating more downside but recovered.

For Tuesday, stocks would be expected to roll back over to the downside unless utilities move higher and/or volatility lower. Watch UTIL 672.35 now at 667.52 creating bearishness. Watch VIX 14.51 now at 14.96 creating bearishness.

If UTIL moves above 672.35 and VIX below 14.51, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If both of these parameters turn bullish and the SPX moves above 2163, Keybot may flip to the long side.

For the SPX starting at 2159, the bulls need to push above 2163 and the upside will accelerate quickly towards 2170. The bears need to push below 2119 to get their mojo back. A move through 2120-2162 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bears remain in control. Watch utilities and volatility. The intraday moves and day-to-day moves will increase in magnitude in the major indexes as volatility rises.

9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/12/16; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +52
9/11/16; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +55

Sunday, September 11, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the new week of trading. UTIL 672.35 is a key bull-bear level that is in play for the entire week so monitor this level closely. Bears have the edge as long as utilities remain below 672.35 in the bear camp. The bears need lower semiconductors, SOX under 764.90 (now at 768.37) to create another substantive down leg in the stock market.

Bulls need UTIL above 672.35 to stop the market selling. Also, GTX above 2262 and/or VIX under 14.53 will help the bulls recover. Pay the closest attention to UTIL 672.35 as the week begins.

For the SPX starting at 2128, the bears need any smidge of negativity in the S&P futures overnight and the SPX price will move several handles lower after the opening bell. The market bulls need to recover Friday's losses to get their mojo back, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on pushing utes higher, chips higher, commodities higher and volatility lower. A move through SPX 2129-2168 is considered sideways action to begin the week.

The bears are in control with the algo number 19 points under the signal line. This spread will increase (more bear-friendly) after Monday's opening bell due to UTIL under 672.35. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell.

9/18/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/16; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/16; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +55
9/9/16; 11:44 AM EST = +36; signal line is +57