Wednesday, August 27, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the battle with copper and volatility continues. Both parameters remain bullish which allows the stock market to keep floating sideways to sideways higher. The bears need either JJC 38.81 or VIX 12.52 to stop the market upside. JJC begins at 38.99 only 18 cents away from the bearish target. Copper is weak overnight down -0.2% but this will only create about 8 cents of downside and place JJC price at 38.90-ish so the bears will need more weakness if they want to flex their muscles. If copper is down about -0.5% or lower today that will place a lid in any further equity market upside. The bears also need higher volatility. VIX begins at 11.63 so the bears need a one-point jump to receive strong downside fuel. If both parameters flip bearish, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. If both parameters remain bullish, equities will continue floating higher.

For the SPX starting at 2000, the bulls need to push above 2005 to create an upside acceleration that will print 2009-2011 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1999 to accelerate the downside to 1991. A move through 2000-2004 is sideways action and a tight range so a winner will likely be determined outside this range.

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +42

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. The pre-scheduled number bumps the algo number up to +70 moving higher into what can be thought of as overbot territory. Copper is weaker with JJC at 39.02 continuing to create market upside. Bears need the JJC to move under 38.81; so, only about twenty cents lower. Volatility is flatish with VIX at 11.63 continuing to create bullishness. Bears need VIX above 12.53 or they got nothing. The beat goes on.

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +42
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40

Monday, August 25, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and simpoly idled along today without printing any  numbers. The bears receive more slaps to the face with the SPX exploding higher and printing a new all-time record high above 2K at the 2002 palindrome. Interestingly, the prior all-time high about one week ago was 1991, another palindrome and of course the March 2009 market bottom was the 676 closing print; a palindrome. When copper was stronger this morning the fix was in for the bulls. Note that the VIX and the SPX are both up so one of them is wrong and tomorrow we find out which (volatility and the equity markets move inverse to each other and only move in the same direction less than 10% of the time).

Watch JJC 38.85 and VIX 12.58; both are now causing bullishness. Bears need one or both of these targets or they got nothing. If both flip bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. If both remain bullish markets will continue floating higher. For the SPX starting at 1998, the bulls need to touch the actual 2002 handle and voila, the acceleration higher will continue targeting 2010. The bears need to push under 1992 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1993-2001 is sideways action. Watch copper and volatility. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning one-half hour after trading begins.

8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37

Sunday, August 24, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. Copper and volatility are driving market direction more than any other parameter right now. Watch JJC 38.73 (now at 39.12 creating market bullishness) and VIX 12.79 (now at 11.47 causing market bullishness). If both parameters remain bullish, equities will float up with the Dow Industrials and Transports printing new all-time highs and the SPX floating above 2000+. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, the market top is in, a ceiling is immediately placed on any further upside and equities will begin trending lower. If both parameters turn bearish, markets will be in serious sell off mode and Keybot will likely be in position to flip to the short side. Caution is required if 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish and an imminent turn to the short side will be in play if both parameters turn bearish.

For the SPX starting at 1988, the bulls need to push above 1993.50 to create an upside acceleration that will carry the banner to 2000. The bears need to push under 1985 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1986-1993 is sideways action to begin the week. Bears need weaker copper and the S&P futures to be down -3 or more overnight to show they have game come Monday morning, otherwise, they got nothing. Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The August month of trading began at SPX 1930.67 and ends on Friday. There are only five trading days remaining with the SPX comfortably 57 points above the starting number for a positive month, thus far. Will the bulls maintain a positive August?

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37

Saturday, August 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend and did not print any numbers on Friday. The bulls are cruising without worry or concern. Bears need higher volatility and lower copper or they got nothing. Next week's areas and levels of interest can be identified once the algo prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37

Friday, August 22, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper was weak the previous evening so the bears were going to stage a fight, however, at yesterday's opening bell copper turned positive and began running higher fueling the stock market gains and new all-time record highs for the SPX. It's all going the bull's way. Bears need either JJC under 38.73 and/or VIX above 12.80 to stop the market upside. Very interestingly, despite all the uber bullishness, if both copper and volatility turn bearish, respectively, Keybot will be in position to flip to the short side. The caution flag will be out if one of the two parameters enter the bear camp and the imminent turn status will be in play if both parameters turn bearish.

For the SPX starting at 1992, the bulls need three points, to touch the 1995 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 2000+ for the first time in history. The bears need to push under 1987 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1988-1994 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are flat. Watch copper and volatility. Copper is higher in today's early trading.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37
8/20/14; 3:57 PM EST = +53; signal line is +34

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo prints four numbers today in an active day. Copper tells the market story going forward; watch JJC 38.73 (JJC is 38.70 three pennies on the bear side causing market negativity). New all-time highs for the SPX are guaranteed if JJC moves above 38.73 so look for any smidge of positivity in copper trading overnight. The bears will focus on keeping JJC under 38.73 and at the same time try to push the VIX above 12.80 (now at 11.78 causing market bullishness) to stop the strong ongoing nine-day relief rally.

For the SPX for Thursday starting at 1987, the bulls need to touch the 1989 handle and bingo, stocks will run wildly higher in an upside acceleration party that has the SPX and other indexes printing new all-time highs. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bulls can produce +2 of upside to continue the bull party, or not. The bears need to push under 1978 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1979-1988 is sideways action. The bulls are driving the bus but note that the signal line is quickly closing the gap towards the algo number now 19 points difference.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/14; 3:57 PM EST = +53; signal line is +34
8/20/14; 1:53 PM EST = +69; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls send copper higher slapping the bears in the face. The algo is tracking JJC 38.73 as the bull-bear line in the sand. JJC above 38.73 paves the way to new all-time market highs. Price is fighting along this important level now at 38.72 slipping a hair below. The VIX falls under 12 providing upside market fuel.

Pay attention to JJC 38.73 since copper dictates market direction currently.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/14; 1:53 PM EST = +69; signal line is +32
8/20/14; 1:26 PM EST = +53; signal line is +29
8/20/14; 12:17 PM EST = +69; signal line is +27
8/19/14; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Wednesday session. Same-o scenario on tap. Bulls win with JJC above 38.61. Bears win with VIX above 12.83. Today was status quo so sideways to up would be expected and another 10 handles of up occurs for the SPX.

For the SPX starting at 1982, the bulls need only one point of upside in the overnight futures and bingo, another upside acceleration occurs to test at or near all-time highs at 1985-1991. The bears need to push below 1973 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1974-1982 is sideways action. Bulls need higher copper but price actually dropped -0.8% on Tuesday. Bears need higher volatility or they got nothing.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/19/14; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. The algo prints this week's pre-scheduled number resulting in a two-point increase to the signal line. The bulls remain in full control. The fight is between volatility and copper. Bulls need higher copper, JJC above 38.61, to send markets higher to the all-time highs. Bears need higher volatility, VIX above 12.84, to place a lid on the market upside. If JJC stays under 38.61 and VIX under 12.84, status quo, equities will float sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX today starting at 1972, the bulls only need a smidge of green to create an upside acceleration and the S&P futures are +6 so the acceleration path is already in play. The 1976 level is key resistance. The bears need to push under 1958, a formidable task, to create a downside acceleration. Instead, the bears will focus on pushing volatility higher to try and stop the market rally. Pay attention to volatility and copper.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/19/14; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +24
8/18/14; 9:36 AM EST = +53; signal line is +22