Friday, February 5, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Friday session is underway. The bears are applying pressure but copper is holding up. Watch JJC 23.89. Price is at 24.11. Market weakness would be confirmed if JJC drops under 23.89, if it stays above, the door is open for the stock market to rise.

The algorithm is quiet this week printing a number on Wednesday and the pre-scheduled number before this morning's opening bell. Stocks remain very choppy and erratic as volatility remains elevated but the broad stock market will likely go as copper goes.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -33
2/3/16; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -35
1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The model is idling along all week long without printing any numbers thus far. Interestingly, stocks sell off but utilities are buoyant. Bears will receive more negative juice if utes drop. UTIL will need to fall through 594.41 to help the bears but is far higher. The market bulls need either JJC above 23.83 and/or VIX under 19.17 to prove that a sustainable rally is in place. Watch copper closely overnight into tomorrow for a sign on market direction.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 1903, the bulls need to push above 1935 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will focus on pushing utes and copper higher and volatility lower. The bears need to push the SPX under 1897, only 5 or 6 points lower, and boom, the SPX will quickly fall several more handles towards 1890. A move through 1898-1934 is sideways action.

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

Sunday, January 31, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are running with the ball for the first time this year; will they run downfield or trip and fumble? Market bulls need either JJC above 23.90 and/or VIX below 19.20 which will prove the upside stock market rally is real. Until at least one of these two parameters occur, the rally in equities is suspect.

The market bears need to push UTIL under 594.41 to get their mojo back but this is a formidable task with UTIL exploding above 611 last week. If UTIL drops under 594.41, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side. If UTIL drops under 580.50 it is likely that the stock market would go into free fall. For now, bulls are not worried since utes are strong.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 1940, the bulls need any smidge of green in the S&P futures overnight and bingo, several handles of upside is on tap for the SPX after the opening bell. The bears need to retrace Friday's big move higher, as they say in Brooklyn, 'good luck wit dat', so instead the bears will be pushing utilities and copper lower and volatility higher. Watch copper overnight since stocks will likely move in the same direction as the other yellow metal this week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 13 points above the signal line but the caution flag remains out until utes, copper and volatility decide the market direction forward.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

Saturday, January 30, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend as the bulls will attempt to continue the recovery rally next week. Bulls will need higher copper and lower volatility to verify that the stock market will continue rallying. Parameters and levels of interest can be highlighted after the Sunday and EOM number prints tomorrow.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37
1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)

Friday, January 29, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

After all the recent threats, the Keybot the Quant flips to the long side. UTIL ran up through the critical 597 level and never looked back. UTIL is at 608 now creating bull fuel. Keybot flips long at SPX 1902 after the opening bell. The market bulls have to move JJC (copper) above 23.90 and/or VIX under 19.20 to firmly prove that up is the direction for stocks going forward. The market bears must send UTIL under 597 to create market negativity. If the three parameters above bump along remaining  in their respective camps, equities will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw move back to the short side. For now, the bulls are in charge for the first time this year.

The SPX benchmark index begins the year down -7%. On the first trade of 2016, the algorithm gains +7% and the actual executed trading gains +11.4%. Keybot exits RWM and enters SSO. The algo is back in 2x ETF mode using a double-leveraged play. The 2x ETF's will be used unless a whipsaw move occurs which will cause the model to drop back into the 1x ETF mode for about a 5-week duration. The bulls have the ball; how far will they run down field?

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37
1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)
1/28/16; 12:35 PM EST = -23; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains short
1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = -39; signal line is -38
1/25/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/22/16; 11:57 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/21/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 1:29 PM EST = -56; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 10:26 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38
1/21/16; 9:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -38
1/20/16; 3:15 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 11:54 AM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 10:25 AM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 2:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/15/16; 1:35 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/15/16; 1:34 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/15/16; 1:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 12:55 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 3:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -35
1/12/16; 3:07 PM EST = -56; signal line is -35
1/12/16; 1:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -34
1/12/16; 12:30 PM EST = -56; signal line is -33
1/12/16; 12:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -33
1/12/16; 11:16 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 11:01 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/12/16; 9:55 AM EST = -56; signal line is -31
1/12/16; 9:54 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30
1/11/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29
1/8/16; 3:53 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29
1/8/16; 11:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 11:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -29
1/8/16; 10:50 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 10:42 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30
1/8/16; 10:32 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 10:15 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/8/16; 9:38 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/7/16; 11:28 AM EST = -40; signal line is -32
1/7/16; 11:17 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short
1/7/16; 11:04 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/7/16; 10:54 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
1/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -28
1/6/16; 3:18 PM EST = -24; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
1/6/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -22
1/6/16; 12:14 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19
1/6/16; 12:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18
1/6/16; 11:26 AM EST = -8; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
1/6/16; 11:15 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13
1/6/16; 10:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -11
1/6/16; 10:39 AM EST = -24; signal line is -8
1/6/16; 10:27 AM EST = -8; signal line is -6
1/6/16; 10:14 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4
1/6/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -3
1/5/16; 1:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -1
1/5/16; 10:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +0
1/5/16; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is +1
1/5/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is +3
1/4/16; 11:34 AM EST = -40; signal line is +5
1/4/16; 11:02 AM EST = -56; signal line is +7
1/4/16; 10:39 AM EST = -40; signal line is +10
1/4/16; 10:32 AM EST = -56; signal line is +13
1/4/16; 10:08 AM EST = -40; signal line is +17
1/4/16; 9:59 AM EST = -24; signal line is +19
1/4/16; 9:57 AM EST = -40; signal line is +21
1/4/16; 9:48 AM EST = -56; signal line is +23
1/4/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is +25
1/1/16; Begin 2016 Data Set = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2016 = 0%) Keybot the Quant Begins 2016 on the Short Side from SPX 2044. All Data 0%. Begin 2016.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues, one day down a couple hundred Dow points and the next day up a couple hundred. The bull-bear fight is ongoing with the algo number and signal line displaying only a one point difference. The bulls need either VIX below 19.30, JJC above 23.88 and/or UTIL above 597 to prove the relief rally is real. If any one of those three parameters turn bullish, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need UTIL under 577.33 which would unleash carnage in the stock market. If the parameters remain as is, the stock market will float sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 1904, the bulls need to touch 1907 and the upside will accelerate to 1910-1912 immediately then to 1920. The bears need to push under 1879 to regain their mojo. A move through 1880-1906 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls also have their hands on the steering wheel as the vehicle careens down the boulevard. Pay attention to volatility and copper.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = -39; signal line is -38
1/25/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

Sunday, January 24, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

The bull-bear battle continues. With Friday's robust upside action you would think the algo would have flipped long but it did not. Keybot is a hair away from flipping long and probably will if the SPX runs above 1909, however, the bulls will likely be slapped in the face due to the utilities. UTIL 577.24 and 596.98 are two key bull-bear levels for the week ahead. UTIL begins at 589.14 creating stock market bullishness above the 577 level but will create bearishness under 597 and likely dampen the bulls hope to receive the go signal for the upside (last week the key upper level was UTIL 583 but this number no longer has any meaning and is replaced with 597 for all of this week).

The opening minutes of trading will be very critical on Monday morning. Since the utes may be out of touch for the bulls, volatility or copper may lock in the move to the bull camp if either VIX drops under 19.33 and/or JJC moves above 23.95. Keybot is currently flagging utilities, volatility and copper as the three key parameters most greatly impacting broad market direction.

For the SPX starting at 1907, the bulls need to touch 1909 and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 1910-1912 in a heartbeat and then likely to 1920 and the uber strong 1924 resistance level. The bears need to push under 1877 to regain their downside mojo, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on pushing utilities lower, volatility higher and copper lower. A move through 1878-1908 is sideways action to begin the new week.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday. The January month of trading ends on Friday. Note that the algo number is overtaking the signal line more and more each day but the bulls still need a tiny bit more energy to confirm a relief rally and flip Keybot to the long side.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/22/16; 11:57 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/21/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 1:29 PM EST = -56; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 10:26 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38
1/21/16; 9:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -38
1/20/16; 3:15 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 11:54 AM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 10:25 AM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short and does not print any numbers during the Tuesday session. The algo wants to flip long but internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 1901 tomorrow (Wednesday), Keybot will likely flip long and price will likely accelerate rapidly higher towards 1910. The bears mush push the SPX under 1865 to accelerate price lower. A move through 1866-1900 is sideways action for Wednesday. The SPX begins the session from 1881. The bears need lower utilities and higher volatility to maintain downward pressure in stocks. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST =
1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, January 16, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the three-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed in the States on Monday in honor of Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day. Markets reopen Tuesday morning. Friday was market carnage. The algo continues to stagger through wanting to go long but continuing to revert lower remaining in the bear camp. The algo number is 13 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move to the long side.

Utilities will be key next week and continue to play an important role. UTIL 583.36 is a key level for every day next week and price was fighting for this level during the last hour of trading yesterday but closes below. Bulls need higher utes and bears need lower utes. This can be discussed in more detail after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

The algo was active on Friday printing seven numbers including the pre-scheduled number.

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 2:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/15/16; 1:35 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/15/16; 1:34 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/15/16; 1:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 12:55 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short

Thursday, January 14, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the model remains positioned to go long. The internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move. Keybot has not printed any numbers since Tuesday. At yesterday's opening bell, price gapped higher to 1946-1950 and then collapsed trending lower all day long. The algo did not bite on the long side.

Did you see late in the day yesterday UTIL dropping down to the exact range of 577.25-577.85 called out by the algo and then bounce? Isn't it amazing that those levels are called out before they occur? That was critical. If UTIL fails at 577, stocks will likely crash. So anyone bullish on the markets should be happy with the magnitude of the selloff that occurred yesterday since markets were actually on the edge of a complete breakdown into free fall.

UTIL 577.25-577.85 remains key. Price is above at 584 so this is causing lift in the stock market. Watch VIX 19.40. Price is 22.29 firmly above causing market bearishness. If VIX falls under 20, the recovery rally in stocks is real, until then, markets remain a coin-flip.

Keybot will likely flip long if the SPX moves above 1950 or if some wild upside orgy move kicks in it could flip long sooner. This is a formidable task so bulls may simply try to stabilize markets today and stop the market selling by keeping utes elevated and pushing volatility lower. The beat goes on. Keybot the Quant wants to flip long but the ducks are not yet lined up in a row. SPX is at 1917.

It is interesting looking back to the last day of trading for 2015 on New Year's Eve. Keybot flipped short during the last minute of trading of 2015 and has been short ever since. The move to end the year appeared very odd and unexpected at the time but here we are two weeks later. Machines are smarter than humans.

1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =
1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short