Friday, May 24, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Friday session. VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.77 remain key. Both are creating bearishness in markets so the bulls need to regain one or both of these levels. For the SPX starting at 1651, the bulls need to move above 1655.50 and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to drop under 1637 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1638-1655 is sideways action today. If either VIX or JJC reach the levels shown above, and the SPX moves towards 1656 and higher, Keybot may flip back to the long side, otherwise, the bears will maintain control. Markets remain erratic and very unstable.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
5/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +44

Thursday, May 23, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The utilities sector experiences a mini flash crash in the first few minutes of trading but recovers. UTIL 481 is a bull-bear line that the algo is now tracking with interest. UTIL is printing 497 and market bears would receive more downside fuel if 481 is lost. Higher volatility and lower copper and commodities are the main negative drivers in place right now.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/23/13; 9:45 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44
5/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +0; signal line is +44
5/22/13; 3:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is +46 but algorithm says stay short
5/22/13; 2:12 PM EST = +32; signal line is +46; go short 1661; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +16.5%)(Keybot this trade = +5.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = +5.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.5%)

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side. Volatility spiked and copper tumbled lower creating market negativity. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw tomorrow. Watch VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.77. In the final few minutes, copper recovered to close at JJC 41.82, jumping back into the bull camp, creating the lift in equities into the closing bell. Watch copper overnight since positivity will lead to a bull recovery tomorrow but negativity in copper will continue the market push lower.

Keybot exited DIA and entered SDS, a double inverse ETF. The last trade results in a 6% gain for the algo program and 5% gain in actual trading. For the SPX on Thursday starting at 1655, the bears need to push under the strong 1649-1650 support to take the next leg lower. Bulls need to recover today's losses and then some, a huge task of about 33 points of upside, a formidable endeavor, but never say never in these crazy markets. Instead, the bulls will focus on pushing copper higher and volatility lower to stem the downside. Markets remain erratic and unstable, simply look at today's action. Tomorrow the bears show if they have any gusto, or not.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/22/13; 3:58 PM EST = +48; signal line is +46 but algorithm says stay short
5/22/13; 2:12 PM EST = +32; signal line is +46; go short 1661; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +16.5%)(Keybot this trade = +5.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +6.8%)(Actual this trade = +5.0%; Actual for 2013 = +5.5%)
5/22/13; 10:20 AM EST = +48; signal line is +46
5/22/13; 10:13 AM EST = +62; signal line is +46
5/22/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45
5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long
5/21/13; 11:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
5/21/13; 10:34 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long
5/21/13; 10:12 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45
5/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +45
5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43
5/20/13; 9:30 AM EST = +32; signal line is +42 but algorithm says stay long
5/19/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +41
5/17/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +40
5/16/13; 3:58 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
5/16/13; 3:47 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long
5/16/13; 10:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
5/16/13; 10:01 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long
5/16/13; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38
5/15/13; 1:35 PM EST = +46; signal line is +37
5/15/13; 12:40 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm says stay long
5/13/13; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37
5/12/13; 7:00 PM EST = +62; signal line is +36
5/10/13; 3:54 PM EST = +62; signal line is +34
5/8/13; 11:04 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
5/8/13; 9:32 AM EST = +62; signal line is +32
5/5/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
5/3/13; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
5/2/13; 10:14 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
5/1/13; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31
4/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line is +32
4/30/13; 10:45 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32
4/30/13; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31
4/30/13; 9:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm says stay long
4/28/13; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32
4/26/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32
4/23/13; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 1569; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2013 = +0.9%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2013 = +0.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. JJC is 42.05 above the 41.79 bull-bear line, bullish.  VIX is 13.44 above the 13.12 bull-bear line, bearish. The algo is active today. Note that there is only two points separating the algo number and signal line showing that the markets are at an inflection point. Bulls need lower volatility and bears need lower copper. JJC 41.79 and VIX 13.12 will tell the story today.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/22/13; 10:20 AM EST = +48; signal line is +46
5/22/13; 10:13 AM EST = +62; signal line is +46
5/22/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper bounces today playing spoiler for the bears. Watch VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.79. VIX is 13.39, surprisingly remaining bearish, while JJC is 42.11 flipping into the bull camp creating market buoyancy.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/22/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45
5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo wants to flip short but the internal signals are not lining up properly to commit to the short side. Bears had another golden opportunity yesterday but could not create enough downside energy. Watch VIX 13.11, JJC 41.77 and GTX 4795. All are in the bear camp right now creating market negativity but copper is up this morning favoring the bulls once again. For the SPX starting at 1669, the bulls need to touch the 1675 handle to accelerate the upside into the 1680's. The bears need to push under 1663 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1664-1674 is sideways action. If the SPX drops under 1663, Keybot will likely flip short. If JJC moves above 41.77 or the VIX drops back under 13.11, the bulls will maintain leadership moving forward. Markets remain erratic and unstable as the bulls march higher.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long
5/21/13; 11:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - -LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long in a very active day for the algo. As highlighted this morning, volatility and copper are running the show today, VIX 13.12 and JJC 41.77, respectively. At the 10:34 AM signal, Keybot was a hair away from going short but the internal programming rules held it back.  Then the SPX runs higher to punch through the 1673 the bulls needed to accelerate the upside. The SPX petered out after a HOD at 1674.93 so only a two handle jump occurs past 1673. VIX now jumps back above 13.12 which is causing the SPX to drift lower again.

Keybot wants to flip short right now but is held back since the proper signals are not lined up correctly. Under the current conditions, the SPX needs to drop under 1662.67, and hold that failure for five minutes, and Keybot will flip short, otherwise, Keybot will remain long through the closing bell. A turn appears imminent. The bears had it in their grasp this morning, once again, only to run out of gas and let the bulls maintain control. Bears need the SPX to drop under 1663.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/13; 2:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long
5/21/13; 11:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +44
5/21/13; 10:34 AM EST = +32; signal line is +44 but algorithm says stay long
5/21/13; 10:12 AM EST = +48; signal line is +45
5/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper buoyancy (JJC) provides market lift but JJC is dancing all around the 41.77 bull-bear line. VIX is under 13.12 by pennies. Things can go either way today. Watch JJC 41.77, VIX 13.12 and GTX 4795. The imminent turn notation is removed once again since the bulls are bouncing copper.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +45
5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. Volatility spiked higher (helping market bears) yesterday only to fall back (helping bulls) as it has for many times recently. At the same time, copper rose yesterday. The algo identifies three key parameters most affecting market direction; volatility, copper and commodities. Watch VIX 13.12, JJC 41.76, and GTX 4800, respectively. VIX is 13.02 creating market upside. JJC is 41.67 and GTX is 4760 creating market downside. The movement of these three parameters will dictate market direction.

The market bulls want the VIX to stay under 13.12 while moving JJC above 41.76 and/or GTX above 4800. If JJC moves above 41.76, the SPX will move well into the 1670's. If both JJC and GTX turn bullish the SPX is likely headed for the 1680's and much higher. The bears want to move the VIX above 13.12 to provide downside negativity for markets while at the same time maintaining the JJC and GTX bearishness. This action may begin more extended market selling moving forward.

For the SPX starting at 1666, the bulls need to touch the 1673 handle and it is off to the races higher with price moving towards 1680. The bears need to push under 1664 to create a downside acceleration.  A move through 1665-1672 is sideways action.  If the VIX moves above 13.12 and the SPX drops under 1664, it is likely that Keybot will flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. However, if JJC prints above 41.76, the bulls will likely maintain full control moving forward. At this writing, about four hours before the U.S. opening bell, copper is lower. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

5/26/13; 7:00 PM EST =
5/20/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +43