Monday, February 11, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. On Friday at 11 AM EST, XLF came down to test the 25.34-25.36 Keybot called out ahead of time, and bounced, so you knew the bears did not have the gusto to take stocks lower. Utilities continue higher.

2/17/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/15/19; 10:00 AM EST =
2/10/19; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +25
2/7/19; 1:08 PM EST = +42; signal line is +24

Friday, February 8, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. At lunch time yesterday, the bears were flexing their muscles but utilities ran higher supporting the stock market.

UTIL catapults higher to 736 creating market joy. Bears need UTIL below 729.72 today to create negativity and this number expires at 4 PM and is replaced with 724.85 for all of next week. Utes will tell you a lot about stock market strength. Bulls will be joyous going forward as long as UTIL remains above 730. If UTIL drops below 730, the stock market will noticeably weaken and if 725 is lost, which is key for all of next week, this portends more weakness for equities ahead. Utes are not only key in the very short term (VST) as described but also for predicting the intermediate term. Pay attention to those numbers as well as UTIL 713 which is the trap-door which may create a drastic drop (fee fall) in the stock market should it fail.

Bears will also benefit from weaker banks. Bears need XLF below 25.36 (now at 25.80) to create a strong leg lower in the stock market. If UTIL or XLF turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then loses the 2687 level, Keybot will likely flip short

The bulls need the SPX above 2727.80 pronto (begins the Friday session at 2706). This is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull market and cyclical bear market. The bulls managed to poke above for a couple days but the bears smacked price back below so the stock market remains in a cyclical bear pattern going forward (weeks and months).

Bulls will also benefit from stronger commodities and a higher NYA index. Bulls need GTX above 2454.10 (now at 2388) and NYA above 12489 (now at 12295), respectively. You will know that the stock market rally has serious up legs if either SPX moves above 2727, GTX above 2454, and/or NYA above 12489.

The NYA 12489 is also a cyclical market signal so you can see the extreme importance of the SPX 2727-2728 and NYA 12489-12490 levels. These two parameters dictate whether the bulls or the bears will be happy for the weeks and months ahead. For now, both indicators say the US stock market is in a cyclical bear market pattern. Stock market bulls will throw confetti and sing songs if either SPX moves above 2727 or NYA above 12489. Bears rejoice if prices remain below these levelsThe beat goes on.

2/10/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/19; 1:08 PM EST = +42; signal line is +24
2/7/19; 12:31 PM EST = +26; signal line is +23
2/7/19; 11:19 AM EST = +42; signal line is +21
2/7/19; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +19
2/6/19; 10:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +18
2/6/19; 10:17 AM EST = +26; signal line is +16
2/5/19; 1:48 PM EST = +40; signal line is +15
2/5/19; 1:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +13
2/5/19; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +12
2/3/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
2/1/19; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +11

Friday, February 1, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Fed Chairman Powell flapped his dovish wings on Wednesday afternoon dropping money from the sky. The stock market catapults higher on central banker easy money as it has for a decade. Utilities flip to the bull side creating more upside momo in equities.

However, the 4.0% unemployment rate creates negativity in the Keybot model. This comes out of left field. The algo signaled a healthy job market ahead in late 2010 nine years ago and that joy continued until today. An unhealthy job market going forward is not good news. A rising unemployment rate occurs in concert with an oncoming recession. It will take another 2 or 3 months to see what the story is. The sentiment data is weak which also creates negativity in the algorithm.

The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points above the signal line. UTIL 729.72 is a key level for all of next week. Price is at 722 right now and went up to look at 729-730 late yesterday. The thieves are already sniffing out this level that Keybot called out before it occurred. Bulls will benefit greatly if UTIL moves above 729.72. Bears will receive downside fuel and send stocks lower if UTIL slips below 711.80.

Bears will also benefit from lower retail stocks, lower copper and higher volatility. Bulls will benefit from stronger commodities and a higher NYA Index. Bulls will also benefit greatly if the SPX overtakes the 2728 level. This will sound the joyous all-clear for stocks and the SPX 3000+ targets by the Wall Street analyst Einstein's may not look so silly after all. Bears must prevent the SPX from moving above 2728 with all their might. The stock market remains in a cyclical bear market as long as the SPX remains below 2728. The beat goes on.

2/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/1/19; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +11
2/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +11
1/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +42; signal line is +11
1/30/19; 2:17 PM EST = +42; signal line is +11
1/29/19; 3:13 PM EST = +26; signal line is +10

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the market drama continues. At 3 PM EST, the algo number and signal line are both +10 verifying that the stock market direction is a coin-flip. The session ends with the bulls maintaining control of the stock market direction with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

Bulls need stronger commodities and higher NYA index to keep sending stocks higher. Bulls need GTX above 2460 and NYA above 12490.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, weaker copper and higher volatility. Bears need RTH below 98.36, CPER under 16.96 and VIX above 19.82. Each parameter would represent a strong leg lower in the stock market should they fail. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play and Keybot may flip short. If 2 of the 3 fail into the bear camp, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. Markets are erratic and unstable. Hold on to your hat.

2/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/1/19; 10:00 AM EST =
2/1/19; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/19; 3:13 PM EST = +26; signal line is +10
1/29/19; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
1/29/19; 1:13 PM EST = +26; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long this morning at SPX 2649. The bull-bear battle continues creating choppy sideways markets chewing up both sides. The algo continues to print numbers like a madman another nine today and the day is not over. Retail stocks and copper run the show today. The bulls are in control with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

Bears need RTH under 98.36 and CPER under 16.96 to regain stock market direction control. Otherwise, the bulls rule. Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side (if retail stocks and copper fail) especially in these crazy markets and with AAPL reporting earnings this evening.

On the last trade, the algo program loses a percent and is flat on the year. The actual trading loses -2.3% due to the DXD 2x ETF. The Dow is higher today and held up better in the short downdraft so DXD is hurt more than other ETF's. Sometimes the quant wins on the ETF in play, sometimes not. 2x ETF's are not a good play in sideways choppiness but the algo has not yet whipsawed to prevent the use of double ETF's. Keybot exits DXD and enters SSO. The S&P 500 benchmark index is up a strong +5.666% this year thus far.

1/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/19; 1:13 PM EST = +26; signal line is +10
1/29/19; 1:02 PM EST = +10; signal line is +9
1/29/19; 11:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +9
1/29/19; 11:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +8
1/29/19; 10:56 AM EST = -6; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
1/29/19; 10:35 AM EST = +10; signal line is +8
1/29/19; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +8
1/29/19; 9:48 AM EST = +26; signal line is +7; go long 2649; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +5.666%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +0.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.3%; Actual trading results for 2018 = -0.6%)
1/29/19; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 1:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 12:59 PM EST = -4; signal line is +4
1/28/19; 12:31 PM EST = +10; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 12:30 PM EST = -6; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 11:46 AM EST = -20; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 11:18 AM EST = -6; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 11:06 AM EST = -20; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 10:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 10:26 AM EST = +10; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 9:56 AM EST = -20; signal line is +2
1/28/19; 9:52 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2
1/28/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/25/19; 12:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
1/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +42; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 2:26 PM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 12:42 PM EST = +12; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 10:20 AM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 9:40 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 7:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 7:27 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 6:33 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 4:46 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/23/19; 3:06 PM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 2:47 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 1:15 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2
1/23/19; 1:06 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 12:52 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2
1/23/19; 11:51 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 11:27 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 10:48 AM EST = -20; signal line is -4
1/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/22/19; 3:59 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/22/19; 2:16 PM EST = -36; signal line is -2
1/22/19; 1:06 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
1/22/19; 1:04 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1; go short 2629; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +4.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +5.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +1.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algo continues to spit out numbers faster than a baseball coach leaning over a dugout railing. Keybot prints a dozen numbers in the Monday session. Markets are erratic and unstable. The bulls and bears are in a knock-down, drag-out fight for control of the stock market.

Keybot is champing at the bit to go long as the Monday session ended but the internal parameters will not latch to allow the move. At the opening bell for Tuesday morning, all things remaining the same, if the SPX moves above 2645, only a point or two higher than the opening price, Keybot will likely flip long. As always, the bulls need a slow, consistent and steady rise higher in SPX price and not a gap-up move which would delay any potential flip to the long side. S&P futures are down -2 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell.

Copper, utilities, retail and volatility are the four key parameters controlling stock market direction right now. The utility trapdoor remains open with UTIL under 711.70. Bears also benefit from weak copper.

Stock market bulls will drive stocks higher if UTIL moves above 711.70 and/or CPER above 16.96. Copper futures are higher this morning so CPER may flip bullish at the opening bell for the regular trading session which would provide market lift.

Bears need utes and copper to remain weak and at the same time smack retail stocks lower and drive volatility higher. Bears need RTH below 98.40 and/or VIX above 19.80 to send the stock market strongly lower. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning (Tuesday).

1/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =
1/28/19; 1:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 12:59 PM EST = -4; signal line is +4
1/28/19; 12:31 PM EST = +10; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 12:30 PM EST = -6; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 11:46 AM EST = -20; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 11:18 AM EST = -6; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 11:06 AM EST = -20; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 10:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +3
1/28/19; 10:26 AM EST = +10; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
1/28/19; 9:56 AM EST = -20; signal line is +2
1/28/19; 9:52 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2
1/28/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short

Sunday, January 27, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but continues champing at the bit to go long. The bulls had it on a silver platter on Friday only needing a nice steady and orderly increase in the SPX price to likely flip the model long, however, instead, the S&P 500 catapults higher in a gap-up move at the opening bell. That behavior triggers a gap-up timer and the model is prohibited from flipping for approximately 90 minutes. At that time, the SPX was off the highs and had difficulty holding the price high for the remainder of the day. The underlying parameters are strong but oddly, price is having trouble moving higher. Markets are very unstable.

Keybot may flip to the long side at anytime especially with SPX price above 2665, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. On Sunday evening in the States, Monday morning with Asia markets coming on line, S&P futures are down -6.

Bulls need higher utilities and commodities to send stocks higher. Bulls need UTIL above 711.26 and GTX above 2465. The UTIL 711.26 level is a trap-door for the stock market and it is open now which is dangerous for the bulls that need to send utes higher and close this trap-door.

Bears need weaker copper and higher volatility. Bears need CPER below 16.94 and VIX above 19.48. The bears likely need both to turn bearish to confirm that down is the direction for the stock market ahead. Keybot prints four pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday, one Thursday evening and two on Friday.

2/3/19; 7:00 PM EST =
2/1/19; 10:00 AM EST =
2/1/19; 9:00 AM EST = 
1/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/19; 10:00 AM EST =
1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
1/25/19; 12:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
1/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +42; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 2:26 PM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short

Thursday, January 24, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side. The algorithm goes wild over the last couple days spitting out 21 numbers. Markets are erratic and unstable. The semiconductors launch into the stratosphere today. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long but is held back because the internal parameters of the model will not yet fully latch.

To keep things simple, if the SPX moves above 2647 tomorrow (Friday), Keybot will likely flip long. The regular session will begin from 2642 so watch to see if the S&P futures overnight can muster up 5 or more points to hint at bullish market joy to end the week. The bulls will benefit from a stock market trending slowly higher. If a gap-up move occurs at the opening bell, the algorithm will likely delay any flip to the long side for approximately 90 minutes.

Bulls will benefit more if utilities, commodities and/or copper rally higher. This behavior will send the stock market strongly higher. 

Bears need UTIL below 711.28, RTH under 98.15 and/or VIX above 19.54. Bears will need at least 2 of these 3 parameters to turn bearish for the downside in the stock market to resume. Volatility is behaving very erratically. Watch VIX 19.54 closely. 

1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/24/19; 2:26 PM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 12:42 PM EST = +12; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 10:20 AM EST = +26; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 9:50 AM EST = +12; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 9:40 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 7:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 7:27 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 6:33 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/24/19; 4:46 AM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/24/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
1/23/19; 3:06 PM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 2:47 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 1:15 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2
1/23/19; 1:06 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 12:52 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2
1/23/19; 11:51 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 11:27 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/23/19; 10:48 AM EST = -20; signal line is -4
1/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -3
1/22/19; 3:59 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 2629. Copper and chips are smacked lower and volatility higher creating a trio of pain for bulls. The bears are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 17 points below the signal line.

Retail stocks and banks are supporting the stock market on the bull side but they have rickety feet, skinny arms and thin shoulders. Bears need RTH under 98.13 and XLF under 25.13 to automatically create more downside carnage in the stock market.

The stock market bulls need stronger chips and utilities and lower volatility, SOX above 1194.30, UTIL above 711.23 and VIX below 19.58, respectively. It appears that Keybot likely needs 2 of these 3 parameters to turn bullish for the stock market to restart the upside path.

The benchmark S&P 500 is up +5% this year. The Keybot algorithm turns positive on the year up +1%. The actual trading triggered by Keybot is also in the green up +1.7% this year. The algorithm exited SSO and entered DXD. The drama continues. 

1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/22/19; 3:59 PM EST = -20; signal line is -3
1/22/19; 2:16 PM EST = -36; signal line is -2
1/22/19; 1:06 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
1/22/19; 1:04 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1; go short 2629; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +4.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.0%)(Actual results this trade = +5.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +1.7%)
1/22/19; 12:31 PM EST = -4; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long
1/22/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -2
1/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is -4
1/18/19; 10:26 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7
1/18/19; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is -9
1/17/19; 11:38 AM EST = +10; signal line is -10
1/17/19; 11:28 AM EST = -6; signal line is -11
1/17/19; 11:02 AM EST = +10; signal line is -11
1/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is -12
1/17/19; 8:08 AM EST = +10; signal line is -12
1/17/19; 7:20 AM EST = -4; signal line is -14
1/17/19; 5:16 AM EST = +10; signal line is -14
1/17/19; 4:39 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15
1/17/19; 4:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is -15
1/17/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16
1/16/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -16
1/14/19; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18
1/14/19; 10:22 AM EST = -20; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains long
1/14/19; 10:15 AM EST = -6; signal line is -20
1/14/19; 9:50 AM EST = -20; signal line is -21
1/14/19; 9:37 AM EST = -36; signal line is -22 but algorithm remains long
1/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -22
1/14/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -23
1/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is -25
1/11/19; 12:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is -27
1/10/19; 11:10 AM EST = -4; signal line is -29
1/10/19; 10:28 AM EST = -20; signal line is -30
1/10/19; 10:14 AM EST = -36; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains long
1/10/19; 10:07 AM EST = -20; signal line is -31
1/10/19; 10:04 AM EST = -36; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
1/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = -52; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
1/10/19; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains long
1/9/19; 1:37 PM EST = -20; signal line is -32
1/9/19; 12:54 PM EST = -4; signal line is -33
1/9/19; 12:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is -34
1/9/19; 11:07 AM EST = -4; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 10:58 AM EST = -20; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 10:50 AM EST = -36; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
1/9/19; 10:49 AM EST = -20; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 10:11 AM EST = -4; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 9:44 AM EST = -20; signal line is -37
1/9/19; 9:39 AM EST = -4; signal line is -37
1/8/19; 3:14 PM EST = -20; signal line is -38
1/7/19; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -38; go long 2555; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -1.9%)(Actual results this trade = -4.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = -4.1%)

Sunday, January 20, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the world's global central bankers pump the stock market higher with dovish policy talk. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 30 points above the signal line. The bulls need stronger utilities and commodities to guarantee more upside joy. Bulls need UTIL above 710.29 and GTX above 2474.

Bears need weaker copper and higher volatility. Bears need CPER below 16.93 and VIX above 19.34 to create downside momentum. If one parameter turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play. If both turn bearish, and the SPX is under 2648 and dropping, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. Watch copper and volatility overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for a heads up on the stock market. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

1/27/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/20/19; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is -4
1/18/19; 10:26 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7

Saturday, January 19, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the bulls jamming chips and copper higher. The algo number is 33 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising. Bears likely need weaker copper and higher volatility. US markets are closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr Day.

1/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/18/19; 10:26 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7
1/18/19; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is -9
1/17/19; 11:38 AM EST = +10; signal line is -10
1/17/19; 11:28 AM EST = -6; signal line is -11
1/17/19; 11:02 AM EST = +10; signal line is -11

Thursday, January 17, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The chips are creating market drama. As the chips go, so goes the market. Keep watching VIX 19.39, SOX 1186.71 and CPER 16.92. If either VIX or SOX turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be back on the table. For now, the bulls continue smiling and inching stocks higher.

1/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/18/19; 10:00 AM EST =
1/17/19; 11:02 AM EST = +10; signal line is -11
1/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is -12
1/17/19; 8:08 AM EST = +10; signal line is -12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 22 points above the signal line but markets remain erratic and unstable. Banks rally providing market lift. Utilities remain weak creating market negativity. The VIX is battling at the key 19.39 bull-bear level ever since it opened at 3 AM EST this morning. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can identify these key levels before they occur? No other algorithm on Wall Street is capable of such feats.

The algo is tracking volatility, chips and copper as the key parameters impacting market direction. Bears need VIX above 19.39 to create market selling. Bears also need weaker chips, SOX below 1186.80 (now at 1187.19), which will flush the stock market lower. If both VIX and SOX turn bearish, and if the SPX drops below 2613, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need to maintain lower volatility and higher semiconductors while boosting copper higher. Bulls need CPER above 16.93 (now at 16.74) to signal the all-clear for the upside rally. Copper futures are down -0.4% as this message is typed a few minutes before the opening bell.

The pre-scheduled number for this morning is cancelled because of the government shutdown which is impacting economic data feeds. VIX 19.39, SOX 1186.80 and CPER 16.93 tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction today.

1/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/18/19; 10:00 AM EST =
1/17/19; 8:08 AM EST = +10; signal line is -12
1/17/19; 7:20 AM EST = -4; signal line is -14
1/17/19; 5:16 AM EST = +10; signal line is -14
1/17/19; 4:39 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15
1/17/19; 4:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is -15
1/17/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16
1/16/19; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -16
1/14/19; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18

Monday, January 14, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with volatility remaining in bull territory. Utilities are punched in the face after PCG crashes. The crash in utes opens the door to ugly things for the stock market going forward.

The bears need higher volatility and/or lower retail stocks and chips if they want to spank the stock market lower. Bears need VIX above 19.39, RTH below 97.65 and/or SOX below 1188. Each one of these parameters will knock the stock market a leg lower. There are shenanigans going on in markets because the retail sector and chips both came down to those targets today and bounced.

The bulls need stronger banks and as fate would have it there are bank earnings on tap in the morning and the banksters are kicking off the Q4 2018 earnings season this week. C reported this morning and was goosed +4% higher. Bulls need XLF above 24.81 to signal the all-clear for the stock market. Equities will take a strong leg higher if the banks turn bullish.

Volatility remains the key. As the VIX goes, so goes the market inversely. If either VIX, RTH or SOX turns bearish, any one will do, and the SPX drops below 2570, Keybot will likely flip short.

1/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =
1/14/19; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18
1/14/19; 10:22 AM EST = -20; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. The algo goes crazy printing six numbers thus far after the opening bell of the regular session. Keybot teases at going short but the parameters are not yet in line to permit the move.

The VIX bull-bear line in the sand is 19.39 (replacing the 19.09 number; the quant is continuously recalculating values) and price is at 19.26 on the bull side. Bears cannot get downside traction in the stock market with the lower volatility.

Watch VIX 19.39, RTH 97.70, SOX 1188 and XLF 24.81. Keybot is tracking all four of these parameters so volatility, retail stocks, chips and banks are the key to stock market direction ahead. If VIX moves above 19.39, and the SPX below 2570, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

1/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =
1/14/19; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18
1/14/19; 10:22 AM EST = -20; signal line is -19 but algorithm remains long
1/14/19; 10:15 AM EST = -6; signal line is -20
1/14/19; 9:50 AM EST = -20; signal line is -21
1/14/19; 9:37 AM EST = -36; signal line is -22 but algorithm remains long
1/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -22
1/14/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading begins. The algo number is 19 points above the signal line. The bears push the VIX above the important 19.09 level so S&P futures are down 20 handles. The bulls must push the VIX back below 19.09 or they got nothing. As volatility goes, so goes the markets inversely.

Utilities are key this week with UTIL 733.73 and UTIL 709.78 the key bull-bear lines in the sand. UTIL begins the week at 714 so the stock market is receiving a lift because utes are above 710 but at the same time the market receives negativity from UTIL under 734. The bulls need UTIL above 734 which will create upside juice for the stock market. The bears need UTIL under 709.78 which will usher in serious negativity and downward selling pressure in equities (the trap-door).

If you see behavior today such as the VIX dancing to and fro above and below the 19.09 level, and/or UTIL doing same at 709.78, this likely indicates that the quant may be setting up to flip short. Watch these two parameters closely on Monday since they likely tell the stock market directional story.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday morning and the other on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

1/20/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/18/19; 10:00 AM EST =
1/17/19; 9:00 AM EST =
1/14/19; 3:06 AM EST = -4; signal line is -23
1/13/19; 7:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is -25
1/11/19; 12:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is -27

Saturday, January 12, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Fed's dovishness pumps the stock market higher. The VIX falls below the critical 19.09 bull-bear line in the sand at noontime Friday. Stocks should jump higher but instead finish the session flattish. The VIX is at 18.19, an 18-handle, not seen since the first couple days of December.

The market bulls are singing songs and throwing confetti into the weekend since the lower volatility will guarantee more upside joy in equities. Bears need the VIX above 19.09 pronto, when trading begins 3 AM EST Monday morning, otherwise, the bulls are going to punch them in the face. The bulls are all smiles while sipping Fed champagne. The algo number is 37 points above the signal line.

1/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/11/19; 12:21 PM EST = +10; signal line is -27
1/10/19; 11:10 AM EST = -4; signal line is -29

Friday, January 11, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algorithm goes crazy the last two days printing 17 numbers. The model is very active. Utilities, semiconductors and retail stocks create the upside market joy. The algo was a hair from going short yesterday but the Federal Reserve rode to the rescue flapping dovish wings and pumping the stock market higher. The central bankers are the market.

The market bulls need UTIL above 720.60 (now at the 717 palindrome) to gain more stock market strength. Interestingly, this 721 number means nothing come 4 PM EST and is replaced by 733.73 which is in play as a bull-bear line for all of next week. The bulls will have a more difficult time moving UTIL above 734 next week but if they do, stocks will be catapulting higher. If UTIL slumps and falls below 709.75 today or any day next week, the broad stock market will fall apart.

The bulls need lower volatility to continue the upside party. The bulls need to push the VIX below 19.11 (now at 19.666 in real-time Friday morning 4 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session). If bulls can push the VIX 55 pennies lower, the stock market is going to take a huge leg higher. If bears hold the VIX 19.11 line in the sand and volatility begins drifting higher again, the stock market will sag.

The bears need to move chips lower by sending SOX below 1182 (now at 1201). Bears will also benefit from weaker retail stocks. Bears need RTH below 97.47 (now at 98.65). You can see why the bulls are feeling pretty good above these key levels. If either one fails, however, the stock market will take a strong leg lower.

Watch UTIL 709.75, SOX 1182 and RTH 97.47. If any one of these three parameters turn bearish (falling below the levels shown), the imminent turn to the short side is in play. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 2565, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need VIX below 19.11 and they will be throwing confetti and singing songs. VIX is 19.78 up a couple ticks from a few minutes ago. If VIX cannot drop below 19.11, it tells you that the stock market rally is not strong or sustainable and will likely roll over and die. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

1/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/19; 11:10 AM EST = -4; signal line is -29
1/10/19; 10:28 AM EST = -20; signal line is -30
1/10/19; 10:14 AM EST = -36; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains long
1/10/19; 10:07 AM EST = -20; signal line is -31
1/10/19; 10:04 AM EST = -36; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
1/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = -52; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
1/10/19; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains long
1/9/19; 1:37 PM EST = -20; signal line is -32
1/9/19; 12:54 PM EST = -4; signal line is -33
1/9/19; 12:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is -34
1/9/19; 11:07 AM EST = -4; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 10:58 AM EST = -20; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 10:50 AM EST = -36; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
1/9/19; 10:49 AM EST = -20; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 10:11 AM EST = -4; signal line is -35
1/9/19; 9:44 AM EST = -20; signal line is -37
1/9/19; 9:39 AM EST = -4; signal line is -37
1/8/19; 3:14 PM EST = -20; signal line is -38
1/7/19; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -38; go long 2555; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -1.9%)(Actual results this trade = -4.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = -4.1%)

Monday, January 7, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 2555 the first turn for the year. Utilities drop like a rock but out of the blue retail stocks are goosed higher. The bulls must keep RTH above 97.50 (now at 97.89). Bears must crush retail stocks tomorrow and potentially, if RTH slips below 97.50 and if SPX drops under 2525, Keybot may whipsaw back to the short side.

Bulls need UTIL above 709.50, CPER above 16.97 and VIX below 19.20. Any of these parameters turning bullish will create upside fuel for the stock market.

On the first trade of the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index is up nearly +2% on the year after only four days of trading in 2019. The Keybot model loses the same amount and the actual trading loses -4.1%. The results are deceiving since the short trade actually started way above SPX 2700 in December. The re-zeroeing of the algo for 2019 creates the loss. No worries. Keybot has the whole year to make it up. In past years, Keybot has been down as much as -7% and -10% before recovering on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO.

RTH 97.50 and UTIL 709.50 will dictate stock market direction on Tuesday. Markets are erratic and unstable to begin 2019.

1/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/7/19; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -38; go long 2555; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -1.9%)(Actual results this trade = -4.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = -4.1%)
1/7/19; 10:50 AM EST = -36; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains short
1/7/19; 9:36 AM EST = -52; signal line is -37
1/6/19; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/4/19; 3:38 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/4/19; 1:25 PM EST = -52; signal line is -36
1/4/19; 12:46 PM EST = -36; signal line is -35
1/4/19; 9:00 AM EST = -52; signal line is -34
1/2/19; 9:37 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
1/1/19; Begin 2019 Data Set = -36; signal line is -32; go short 2507; (Benchmark SPX for 20198 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2019 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2019 = 0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading begins, however, the model wants to flip long with the algo number 1 point above the signal line. If UTIL remains above 709.50, and if the SPX moves above 2538 (the week begins at 2532), Keybot will likely flip long, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. S&P futures are up +6 about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular Monday trading session. Whoa, no. Futures hit an air pocket over the last few minutes with the spoo's now down -4. The VIX is at 21.38.

Utilities are key. For this week, UTIL 709.50 and 720.60 are in play as key bull-bear lines in the sand. UTIL begins at 711.91. If UTIL falls below 709.50, run for your life because stocks will likely fall apart and trend lower again. If UTIL moves above 720.60, bingo, the relief rally for the stock market will gather lots of upside steam. If UTIL remains between 710 and 720, the stock market will bump along sideways with a slight upward bias.

Copper is key. Bulls need CPER abve 17.03 to prove that the relief rally is real. Bulls also need lower volatility. Bulls need the VIX below 18.73 which would create upside rocket fuel for the stock market. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Watch utilities out of the gate; that UTIL 709.50, the trapdoor in the stock market, is key.

1/13/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/19; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/4/19; 3:38 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, January 5, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage a huge comeback rally on central banker largess. The PBOC (China's central bank) greases the skids with a triple R cut and then Fed (US central bank) Chairman Powell flaps his dovish wings. The double-barreled dovish bazooka shoots global stock markets higher. The central bankers are the market. Easy money makes the world go 'round.

Note how UTIL came up to play with the critical 709.49 bull-bear line in the sand on Friday. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can identify these levels before they occur? Utilities pop up through to verify the bull breakout in equities, however, after lunch utes slump again. Then late-day joy sends UTIL back above 709.55 creating a euphoric finish for the day and week.

The algo is champing at the bit to go long now, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line,  but the internal parameters are not fully latching as yet to permit the move. The bulls are going to need to push the SPX above 2538 while maintaining strong utilities if they want to lock in the upside relief rally and likely get Keybot to flip long. Copper finally caught a bid on Friday but it needs to keep rallying to prove that the relief rally in the stock market is real. Keybot prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

1/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/4/19; 3:38 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/4/19; 1:25 PM EST = -52; signal line is -36
1/4/19; 12:46 PM EST = -36; signal line is -35
1/4/19; 9:00 AM EST = -52; signal line is -34
1/2/19; 9:37 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33

Thursday, January 3, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as 2019 is off and stumbling. The bears are slapping the bulls silly. Slap, slap. Want some more, bulls? Here you go. Slap, slap. The bears are in control with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. Today was a bloodbath. Remember, when the the UTIL 709.34 trapdoor opened, shareholders fell into Hades.

Utilities are likely the key way the bulls can stabilize markets and fight back. The algo continues to track utilities with interest. Bulls need UTIL above 709.34. If UTIL remains below 709.34 (now at 702), the Armageddon scenario remains on the table.

If UTIL rallies, watch to see if it jogs above and below the 709.34, if so, say a couple jogs above and below, and if the SPX rallies all the way up to 2493, Keybot may flip long. The VIX remains elevated so the wild intraday and day to day points swings will continue.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before Friday's opening bell. 2019 begins with pain and misery for bulls but joyous ecstasy for bears. Typically, when the blood is flowing on Wall Street, that is when stocks recover. Tomorrow (Friday) is a big day. Keep watching utilities and copper for clues. If both head higher those are feathers in the bull's cap. If both head lower, keep those crash helmets on.

1/6/19; 7:00 PM EST =
1/4/19; 9:00 AM EST =
1/2/19; 9:37 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
1/1/19; Begin 2019 Data Set = -36; signal line is -32; go short 2507; (Benchmark SPX for 20198 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2019 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2019 = 0%)