Friday, August 28, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as Friday trading is underway. The two-day stock market rally has not changed the algo's outlook for continued weakness ahead. The algo has not printed any numbers in a couple of days and the algo number remains 59 points under the signal line. Bulls have a lot of ground to make up. The Friday pre-scheduled number prints a short time ago dropping the algo number and signal line by one point each. The bears remain in control despite the two-day rally.

8/30/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/15; 10:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is +5
8/25/15; 10:00 AM EST = -53; signal line is +6

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The big rally in stocks today does not impress the algo. The pre-scheduled number prints and bounces the algo number 5 points higher. Bears remain in firm control.

8/28/15; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/15; 10:00 AM EST = -53; signal line is +6
8/24/15; 1:22 PM EST = -58; signal line is +7

Monday, August 24, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears keep smacking the bulls around. Bulls can probably stop the market selling if they move the utilities higher. Watch UTIL 585.74, call it 586. UTIL is at 573 which causes market negativity. Bulls can stop the stock market carnage by pushing UTIL above 586. UTIL failed the 50-week MA this morning at 589 and the closing low 15 weeks ago at 585.74 opening a trap-door in the markets and stocks certainly collapsed through the trap-door.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 65 points under the signal line. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after trading begins on Tuesday.

8/25/15; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/15; 1:22 PM EST = -58; signal line is +7
8/24/15; 11:59 AM EST = -26; signal line is +9
8/24/15; 9:36 AM EST = -58; signal line is +11
8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST = -26; signal line is +13

Sunday, August 23, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short to begin the new week of trading. The stock market drubbing was extensive last week. Market bears will receive more downside fuel if utilities move lower. Bulls will need retail and financial stocks higher, and volatility lower, to recover.

For the SPX starting at 1971, the bears need any amount of red in the S&P futures and the SPX will drop several handles at the opening bell. Bulls will simply try to keep the S&P futures green with all their might which will at least stabilize stocks sideways. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday. The bears are in control.

8/30/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/15; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/15; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST = -26; signal line is +13
8/21/15; 9:36 AM EST = -26; signal line is +15

Saturday, August 22, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish through the weekend. Stocks fell out of bed on Friday afternoon in a mini-crash. The algo is tracking utilities, retail and volatility so UTIL, RTH and VIX will be important things to watch next week. The stock market always takes the stairs up and the elevator down. Areas and levels of interest can be identified after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/15; 9:36 AM EST = -26; signal line is +15

Friday, August 21, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short as retail stocks take the pipe to begin Friday's trade. RTH plummets below 77.37 creating negativity. Bulls will need to bring RTH higher to stop the market selling. Bears are in firm control and are now attacking the utility sector to gain more downside juice. Bulls will try to keep utilities strong while pulling retail stocks higher.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 41 points below the signal line. The markets are erratic and unstable.

8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/15; 9:36 AM EST = -26; signal line is +15
8/20/15; 10:01 AM EST = -10; signal line is +16

Thursday, August 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short today with the banks breaking down. Friday is a contest between retail and financial stocks. Bears will receive further downside fuel with RTH under 77.37 (now at 77.41 only four pennies on the bull side creating market upside). If RTH moves higher then the stock market will recover. The bulls need either SPX above 2060 and/or XLF above 25.00, either would do, to confirm that the market selling is over. If stocks recover on Friday, but the SPX remains under 2060 and XLF under 25, then the market selling will likely resume next week.

For the SPX starting at 2036, any smidge of negativity in the S&P futures will send the SPX several points lower. The bulls need to recover today's big loss in the SPX, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on sending RTH, XLF and the SPX higher to at least slow down or stabilize the market selling. The bears are driving the bus.

Keybot the Quant algo logs the third loss in a row as markets keep trading choppy sideways. The losses, however, are marginal the computer program and the actual trading both losing about one-half percent. The robot is in the single ETF's mode due to the choppy nature of the price action. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH. The SPX Benchmark Index is up +0.8% but after the day played out and ended at 2035, the SPX is down -1.2% on the year. The bears are in charge with the algo number 26 points below the signal line. 

8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/15; 10:01 AM EST = -10; signal line is +16
8/20/15; 9:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17; go short 2076; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2015 = +1.7%)
8/19/15; 11:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
8/19/15; 10:46 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/18/15; 11:37 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
8/18/15; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/18/15; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
8/18/15; 9:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/17/15; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
8/16/15; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/14/15; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/14/15; 9:58 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/14/15; 9:45 AM EST = +20; signal line is +15
8/13/15; 3:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +16
8/13/15; 3:40 PM EST = +21; signal line is +15
8/13/15; 11:54 AM EST = +35; signal line is +14
8/13/15; 10:34 AM EST = +21; signal line is +12
8/13/15; 9:53 AM EST = +5; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
8/12/15; 3:30 PM EST = +21; signal line is +10; go long 2087; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2015 = +2.1%)

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and for all the market dramatics today the algo only prints two numbers and motors along on the long side. The bears were in the driver's seat at 11 AM EST but did not have the oomph to force markets lower. XLF 25.00 is key and will dictate market direction tomorrow. XLF begins at 25.05 on the bull side so the broad stock market will float higher. If XLF drops under 25, the selling in equities will accelerate.

Bulls will confirm an upside rally ahead if the VIX drops under 13.50 (now at 15.25 in the bear camp causing market negativity). If VIX stays above 13.50 and XLF above 25, stocks will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. If XLF drops under 25, stocks will start selling off and Keybot the Quant will likely go short but the SPX probably will need to drop under 2071. If the VIX drops under 13.50, bulls will be partying into the weekend with a big rally.

For the SPX starting at 2080 on Thursday morning, the bulls need to touch the 2096 handle to accelerate higher above 2100 in quick order. The bears need to push SPX under 2071 to accelerate the downside and bad things will begin happening to equities. The SPX started the year at 2059. A move through 2072-2095 on Thursday is sideways action. The imminent turn notation is in the title line since XLF under 25 will set the algo up to potentially flip short. Therefore, listen for any bank news overnight that will influence XLF one way or the other.

8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/19/15; 11:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
8/19/15; 10:46 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/18/15; 11:37 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo continues to track volatility as the main market direction driver currently at VIX 13.48. The VIX is above at 13.92 which ushers in the stock market weakness. Bulls will not continue the path higher with stocks unless VIX drops under 13.48. The algo number is only two points from the signal line so the bulls and bears are battling for control.

Market bears need weaker retail and financial stocks to push the market substantially lower. It would not be surprising to see volatility oscillate above and below the VIX 13.48 level today and tomorrow which will continue to cause the algo number and signal line to converge for a potential turn. For now, the bulls are maintaining control but they need the VIX back under 13.48 as soon as possible.

8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/15; 11:37 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
8/18/15; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/18/15; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
8/18/15; 9:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/17/15; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16

Monday, August 17, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only four points from the signal line. The bulls remain in control but the bears are using higher volatility to push stocks lower. Watch VIX 13.48 as the line in the sand. Stocks will sell off if the VIX is above 13.48 and moving higher.  Stocks will rally higher if VIX drops under 13.48. VIX is currently printing 13.63 in the bear camp by only 15 cents. Volatility will dictate market direction today.

8/18/15; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
8/16/15; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16

Note Added 10:53 AM: VIX is down to 13.52 at the 13.48 line in the sand. The market direction story will now be told. Volatility, the VIX, will either bounce or die from this level and the stock market will move in the opposite direction.