Thursday, April 24, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The bulls are riding a wave of upside glory and in full control of markets. Bears got nothing unless they either push RTH under 58.96 and/or JJC under 37.46. The bulls push the retail sector and copper higher and it is very surprising the broad indexes did not move strongly higher. If RTH and JJC remain bullish, markets will run strongly higher into the weekend.

The algo has not printed at the lofty 79 number since a few 78 prints in October that led to a 50-handle pull-back in the SPX. Another 79 print occurred mid-September identifying the market top that resulted in a 90-handle pull back in the SPX. Thus, enjoy the bull ride but Keybot is signaling overbot conditions which will likely correct over the coming week or three. The algo only sees 1's and 0's, however, so time will tell to see how it works out.

For the SPX starting at 1879, the bulls need to poke up through 1884 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1870 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1871-1883 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number Friday morning. The bulls are cruising without a care in the world. The algo number is 51 points above the signal line.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/14; 10:47 AM EST = +79; signal line is +28

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls explode higher at the opening bell with an orgy of excitement. The broad indexes are either side of the flat line currently giving up the initial leap higher, however, the bulls now have copper and retail in their camp so it is surprising that the indexes are not far higher. Watch RTH 58.96 and JJC 37.46. Prices are above for each creating the elevated and buoyant stock market today. Bears will get run over unless they can reverse the retail and copper joy, respectively, so pay close attention to these two parameters. RTH is 59.04 and JJC is 37.67 so there should be far more bullishness occurring in markets than the action shows.

The algo explodes higher to +79. This number will have to be compared to prior lofty levels. Remember, at its heart, Keybot is an oscillator so the high near-80 print is an indication of highly overbot markets. For now, the bulls continue to cruise and will drive markets strongly higher unless the bears can reverse the copper and/or retail joy as described above.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/14; 10:47 AM EST = +79; signal line is +28
4/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +25
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and idled today without printing any numbers. Bulls remain in control and the AAPL and FB earnings blowouts this evening may keep the upside party going. RTH 58.97 remains the key. Bulls must move through RTH 58.97 to chart the path to SPX 1900. Bears need XLF 21.78 and/or VIX 14.70 to create negativity.

For the SPX starting at 1875, the bulls need to touch the 1880 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1874 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1875-1879 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising along and set up for an up day for Thursday. Watch RTH 58.97.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls throw another party yesterday boosting the retail sector which will launch a move to SPX 1900, however, the bulls faded into the closing bell. Watch RTH 58.97 since it is the key element dictating market direction currently. RTH begins at 58.86 causing market bearisness. Bulls will be popping champagne corks if RTH moves above 58.97. XLF 21.78 is another bull-bear line in the sand. XLF begins at 21.99 causing market bullishness. VIX 14.70 is important with the bulls winning this fight. Copper is important with the bears winning this fight keeping JJC under 37.45.

For the SPX starting at 1880, the bulls need to touch the 1885 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1874-1884 is sideways action for Wednesday. S&P futures are -2 at this writing about three hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising and will be in clover if RTH moves above 58.97. The bears need XLF under 21.78, and VIX above 14.70, and the SPX under 1873, to create a scenario for a potential flip to the short side.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24
4/22/14; 11:38 AM EST = +63; signal line is +24
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls continue an upside rally without resistance. The algo did not print any numbers in the Monday session. The bears held the line at SPX 1870-1871 all day long but in the final minutes the bulls thrust higher to 1872. Note how financials, XLF, actually finished negative. This allows bears to keep a lid on the upside. Bears need either XLF 21.77 and/or VIX 14.70 to place a ceiling on the upside and roll equities over to the downside. If both turn bearish and the SPX drops under 1863, Keybot will likely flip short but at this juncture this scenario does not appear to be in play. The caution flag will be needed if the bears push XLF under 21.77. Bulls will receive more upside juice with either RTH 58.95 and/or JJC 37.45 so the bull focus is to push the retail sector and copper higher, respectively. Bulls must have these two sectors in pocket to move to the all-time highs and then above SPX 1900.

For the SPX starting at 1872, closing at the high, the bulls only need a tiny smidge of positivity and this will set up an acceleration move higher. A move above the strong 1874 resistance is a big deal and shows the bulls in firm control heading to the all-time highs. The bears need to hold the 1872-1874 resistance level with all their might and at the same time push under 1863 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1864-1871 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat about four hours before the US opening bell.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23

Monday, April 21, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new week of trading after the Easter holiday weekend. The algo is tracking financials, volatility and copper as the three key market movers. Bears need either XLF 21.77 and/or VIX 14.74 to place a lid on the market upside. The bulls need higher copper to receive more upside go juice so watch JJC 37.50 as the signal for higher equities. Copper is flat in early trading. If financials and volatility turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1857, Keybot will likely flip short but this appears a tall task as the morning arrives on the East Coast.

For the SPX starting at 1865, the bulls need to touch the 1870 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. Bears need to push under 1857 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1858-1869 is sideways action. S&P futures are +2 at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising and bears got nothing unless they achieve lower financials and higher volatility. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Friday, April 18, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the Easter holiday weekend. US markets will reopen for trading on Monday. Financials, XLF, remain buoyant in the Thursday session providing an easy day for bulls. Semi's catapult higher creating bull juice. Volatility drops popping equities higher. In addition, the bulls are boosting copper so they can receive more upside market juice next week. Bears will focus on pounding financials lower to stop the market upside. Bulls will focus on sending copper higher. Keybot did not print any numbers on Thursday. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 25 points above the signal line.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today. Once the financials, XLF 21.77, joined the bull camp, the algo latched across all parameters and flips long at SPX 1859. The markets are whipsawing sideways. Note that the prior move was 1859 to 1848, now 1848 back to 1859. These moves will wreak havoc on a timing model but Keybot is smart enough to drop down into single ETF's to ride the turbulence out minimizing the damage. Keybot cycled out of SH and into SPY. The algorithm program lost -0.6% on the last trade and also the actual trading. After 3-1/2 months roll by this year, the broad market is flat on the year.

SOX moves above 563.10. VIX drops under 14.77. Then XLF moves above 21.77 creating the late-day orgy into the closing bell. A triumphant of bullishness. Bears got nothing unless they regain one of these critical bull-bear levels. XLF is 21.82 only a nickel away so pay attention to that one after the opening bell. Tomorrow is the last day of trading this week due to the Good Friday holiday. Bulls will receive additional fuel by goosing copper and/or the retail sector.

For the SPX, the power thrust late-day is strong since price closed at the exact high at 1862.31. Therefore, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidgen of green overnight and it will be off to the races with an acceleration higher into the weekend. The bears will try to prevent any positive number in the overnight futures with all their might. In addition, bears must weaken financials and semiconductors and raise volatility. Bears will also try to push the SPX under 1846 to regain their mojo, a formidable task since the holiday weekend is nigh and traders are in a happy mood content with lining the markets out sideways so the barbecue can be fired up.

A move through SPX 1847-1861 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising. If two of the three parameters in the middle paragraph turn bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in play. The caution flag remains out since the bears may stage a comeback tomorrow. The whipsaw sideways market behavior may continue.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Another wild and crazy market day occurs. The algo is tracking SOX 563.10, VIX 14.77 and XLF 21.77 as bull-bear lines in the sand. Semi's and volatility turn bullish today creating the market upside. Finanicals are attacking the XLF 21.77 but stalling so far. Keybot wants to go long right now but the internal programming rules are holding it back. One of the key elements that will help latch the algo into flipping long is the SPX HOD print at 1858.45. If the bulls can send the SPX above 1858.45 and hold it above for several minutes, Keybot will likely flip long. Bears need to move SOX under 563.10 and/or VIX above 14.77 immediately to prevent the algo from flipping long. High drama. Keybot is a hair away from going long.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Wednesday session of trading. Semi's and financials rule the roost. Bears need SOX under 563.10 to regain their mojo. Bulls need XLF above 21.77 to lock in the market upside and substantiate the upside market rally. If the XLF moves above 21.77, and the SPX prints above 1844, and both stay above, Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, pay close attention to bank earnings moving forward since they will impact markets in a major way.

For the SPX starting at 1843, the bulls need to push up through 1844, only one single point, to accelerate higher so watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls receive the positive nod. The bears need to drop under 1816 to regain their mojo; a formidable task that is 27 points lower. Instead, the bears will simply try to create weakness in financials and semiconductors to halt the market upside. A move through SPX 1817-1843 is sideways action for Wednesday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning before the opening bell. The bears are in control but the bulls are making a strong move higher.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23