STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The market bears are cruising.  SPX fell thru the critical 12-month MA. The caution flag remains out, however, since happy Euro news can easily reverse the markets.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:45 AM EST = -44 signal line -21

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST = -30 signal line -19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start this last day of trading for the week.  The Monthly Jobs Report laid an egg; a disasterous report showing that there is no economic recovery occurring.  Futures markets are down large with the S&P's slated to tumble about 27 points.  This will easily slice thru the SPX 1299 highlighted last evening to accelerate the selling, and price will next likely fail the critical 1292-1293 area that represents the SPX 12-month MA and the edge of the cliff for markets. Obviously, very market bearish. Keybot is motoring along on the short side.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST = -30 signal line -19

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -30 signal line -19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short ahead of the all-important Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM so the action can be updated at that time. Today is month-end. The algo was very active today printing a total of six numbers. RTH 41.16 will be important again tomorrow; it is now creating market bearishness at 41.01.

For the SPX starting at 1310, the bulls need to touch 1320 to accelerate the upside and start the weekend party early.  The bears need to push under 1299 to accelerate the downside. A move thru 1300-1319 is sideways action.  The Jobs Report will impact the futures so we can check before the open to see how the landscape looks. For Keybot to go long, the RTH will have to first regain the 41.16 level for starters. Tomorrow morning will provide high drama.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -30 signal line -19

5/31/12; 3:49 PM EST = -30 signal line -18

5/31/12; 3:11 PM EST = -14 signal line -17 but algorithm says stay short

5/31/12; 1:25 PM EST = -30 signal line -17

5/31/12; 12:26 PM EST = -14 signal line -15 but algorithm says stay short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The RTH tumbled under 41.16 at the open and continued well under 41 before recovering as happy Euro news hit the wires. The algo number is now above the signal line so the quant is chomping at the bit to go long but internal programming rules are holding it back, keeping it on the bear side.  One of the key items that would have to line up is the SPX will need to take out yesterday's highs at 1331.25. The SPX is currently printing 1312 well below so the quant has no intentions of flipping long, for now.

This is high drama and shows that the bulls and bears are fighting intensely ahead of the Jobs Report in the morning when the die will be cast.  Watch RTH 41.16. This retail sector carries serious clout right now more than any other sector.  The RTH is a hair above as this message is typed. If the RTH falls below 41.16 you will see the markets deteriorate. The markets will stay buoyant if the RTH stays above 41.16.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/12; 12:26 PM EST = -14 signal line -15 but algorithm says stay short

5/31/12; 9:30 AM EST = -30 signal line -14

5/30/12; 3:25 PM EST = -14 signal line -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short to start the Thursday trading session. Today is the EOM with a brutal May drawing to a close. Yesterday's trading drama centered around the retail sector where RTH would not commit to neither bull nor bear oscillating to and fro all day long finishing one single point on the bull side.  Watch RTH 41.16 very closely at the opening bell (now at 41.17). Above and the day belongs to the bulls, below and the day belongs to the bears. As RTH goes, so goes the markets today.

Note that Keybot is on the ragged edge of moving back to the long side.  The algo number is smack dab on top of the signal line after printing six numbers yesterday. If the algo number moves higher, and other internal programming rules for the quant are satisfied, Keybot will flip long. The next couple days are extremely important for the markets. For now, Keybot remains inthe bear camp.

For the SPX starting at 1313, the bears only need to see two points lower, to push the SPX under 1311, and the markets will accelerate lower.  The bulls need to recover yesterday's losses to reignite upside momo, a formidable task.  Instead, bulls will focus on keeping the RTH elevated above 41.16 which will keep the broad indexes elevated.  A move thru SPX 1312-1330 is sideways action today.  A pre-scheduled number prints after the close this evening that will button up the month of May then another pre-scheduled number prints Friday morning before the open. Extreme caution is warranted as the bulls and bears fight it out for market control.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/30/12; 3:25 PM EST = -14 signal line -14

5/30/12; 3:15 PM EST = -30 signal line -14

5/30/12; 12:47 PM EST = -14 signal line -13

5/30/12; 12:04 PM EST = -30 signal line -13

5/30/12; 11:35 AM EST = -14 signal line -12

5/30/12; 10:33 AM EST = -30 signal line -12

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Wednesday session.  The algo idled along yesterday without printing any numbers after the pre-scheduled number printed. RTH moved above 41.15 which caused the bullish thrust yesterday, closing at 41.59, but with futures poised to give back yesterday's gains, watch the RTH closely again today. If RTH drops under 41.15 the markets will take a leg lower. If this fails, watch the SPX 1295 level since this represents the cliff edge for markets. If happy news comes out of Europe, which is hard to imagine, but if it does, and RTH stays above 41.15, watch NYA 7646 (now at 7615) since that will signal that the bulls are in full control and a substantial market rally is occurring. Considering the souring market mood today, this outcome does not appear to be on tap. If the NYA moves above 7646, Keybot will likely move to the long side. Otherwise, Keybot appears to be content with staying short, remaining on the bearish side for about three and one-half weeks.

For the SPX, starting at 1332, the bulls need to touch the 1335 handle and the markets will accelerate skyward. The bears need to push under 1319 and the downside will accelerate. A move thru 1320-1334 is sideways action today. Note that with a ten point drop projected by futures currently, this would still leave the bears three points shy of the 1319.  Volatility remains high, markets remain unstable.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the holiday-shortened week is underway. The pre-scheduled number results in no change to the algo number but the signal line ticked one point lower.  The RTH is remaining up above 41.15 so this creates the market bullishness today. The NYA, however, is at 7600 remaining short of the 7646 level that will verify a strong bullish rally in progress and sustainable. The 7646 level replaces the 7637 level mentioned in prior posts since this is the 40-week MA and is constantly changing in real-time.

The SPX punched thru 1324 so an upside acceleration was expected and the HOD print is 1331, a critical resistance level now being tested. Keep watching NYA 7646 since this will likely trigger Keybot to go long. Otherwise, Keybot remains short. The markets remain highly unstable.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -10

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -9

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the holiday-shortened trading week. The retail sector, RTH, and the NYA index are the two key elements that will dictate broad market direction.  The quant is tracking 41.15 for RTH and 7637 for NYA.  RTH closed three pennies above this important level at 41.18 which is bullish for markets. The NYA closed at 7534 about 100 points under the important level which is bearish for markets. If the RTH falls under 41.15 the bears will be pushing markets lower once again. If this occurs, keep watching the line in the sand where markets will fall off a cliff at SPX 1294.  The bulls, however, will try to keep the RTH above 41.15 which will create broad market buoyancy. If they succeed at this task, the bulls will then focus on the NYA regaining the 7637 level.  If the NYA moves above 7637, it is likely that Keybot will flip to the long side ending the three-week run for the bears.

For the SPX for Tuesday, the first day of trading for the week, starting at 1318, the bears have an easier task ahead only needing about four points lower, to move under the 1314 level, and a strong down leg will occur for the broad indexes. The bulls need to move above 1324, about six points higher to accelerate an up move for the broad indexes. A move thru 1315-1323 is sideways action. If the markets stage a post-holiday rally, watch 1324 closely, if the bulls cannot move above, they got nothing. If the bulls move above 1324, they got game and they can easily extend the rally higher perhaps finally performing a back kiss of the 1340 level that represents the neck line rupture of the H&S pattern.

The short four-day week is packed full of economic data with the Jobs Report on Friday.  Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week starting at 10 AM Tuesday so the market action can be updated at that time. Markets remain unstable and erratic as volatility works higher. Caution is warranted. RTH 41.15 and NYA 7637 will tell you the story.

6/3/12; 7:00 PM EST =

6/1/12; 9:00 AM EST =

5/31/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/29/12; 10:00 AM EST =

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST = -14 signal line -9

5/25/12; 3:42 PM EST = -14 signal line -8

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short thru the holiday weekend. The algo printed two more numbers in the afternoon and now the algo number is only six points away from the signal line. This action places Keybot closer to moving to the long side. The bulls are trying to lift the markets by using the retail sector. The RTH closed above the 41.15 level of interest identified by Keybot by only three pennies but it is above nonetheless favoring the bulls. The bulls could not punch the NYA thru the 40-week MA, however. These two items will be key when the Tuesday opening bell rings as well as the SPX 12-month MA and also volatility. The sectors and levels of interest for next week can be set up tomorrow after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

5/27/12; 7:00 PM EST =

5/25/12; 3:42 PM EST = -14 signal line -8

5/25/12; 3:18 PM EST = -30 signal line -7

5/25/12; 10:00 AM EST = -14 signal line -6

5/25/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14 signal line -5

5/20/12; 7:00 PM EST = -30 signal line -3