Thursday, December 18, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the NYA battles for 10755 successfully. The algo prints two more numbers with the bulls in firm control and a market melt-up underway.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/14; 3:01 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
12/18/14; 2:31 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
12/18/14; 12:50 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 2047; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +10.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2014 = +15.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2014 = +16.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today at SPX 2047 after the NYA floats above the critical 10755 bull-bear line in the sand identified by the algo. NYA 10755 (40-week MA) is a key indicator and a major blow to the bearish case on a cyclical basis (months). Continue watching it closely. Stocks will finish the year bullish if NYA remains above 10755. Bulls will create additional upside strength with VIX below14.76.

The algo program lost about one-half percent on the last trade and the actual trading lost -1.3%. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the double ETF's. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw today or tomorrow. The bulls are driving the bus.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/18/14; 12:50 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 2047; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +10.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2014 = +15.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2014 = +16.5%)
12/18/14; 12:42 PM EST = +46; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
12/18/14; 10:24 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
12/18/14; 10:16 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
12/17/14; 1:02 PM EST = +32; signal line is +34
12/17/14; 12:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34
12/17/14; 12:02 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36
12/16/14; 2:56 PM EST = +16; signal line is +36
12/16/14; 1:55 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/16/14; 1:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +38
12/16/14; 11:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +39
12/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40
12/15/14; 3:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +42
12/15/14; 2:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +43
12/15/14; 2:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +44
12/15/14; 12:41 PM EST = +32; signal line is +47
12/15/14; 11:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +48
12/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +49
12/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +50
12/11/14; 2:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +50
12/11/14; 10:26 AM EST = +44; signal line is +51
12/10/14; 12:13 PM EST = +30; signal line is +52
12/10/14; 11:55 AM EST = +44; signal line is +53
12/10/14; 11:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +53
12/10/14; 11:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +54
12/10/14; 10:41 AM EST = +30; signal line is +54
12/9/14; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 2038; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.3%; Keybot algo for 2014 = +16.2%)(Actual results this trade = +8.1%; Actual results for 2014 = +17.8%)

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls stage a strong comeback fueled by the Fed's easy money dovish talk. The algo prints three numbers today. Financials lead the way higher and the fix was in before the Fed statement with the XLF above 23.96. The algo number is a hair away from overcoming the signal line which would position Keybot to go long (if other internal programming rules latch properly) but for now the bears remain in control.

For Thursday, the fight is between the NYA Index and financials. Bulls need the NYA above 10755 to prove they can sustain the rally. Bears need to push XLF under 23.96 or they got nothing. Stocks will move sideways with an upward bias if NYA remains under 10755 and XLF over 23.96. If the NYA moves above 10755 and the SPX moves above 2017, Keybot will likely flip long, hence, the caution flag is out and if NYA turns bullish (above 10755) an imminent turn to the long side will be at hand.

For the SPX for Thursday starting at 2013, the bulls need to move above 2017 to create an acceleration higher. The bears need to push under 1974 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1975-2012 is sideways action. Watch NYA 10755 and XLF 23.96.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/17/14; 1:02 PM EST = +32; signal line is +34
12/17/14; 12:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +34
12/17/14; 12:02 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36
12/16/14; 2:56 PM EST = +16; signal line is +36

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo prints five numbers today. The directional move on Wednesday will depend on financials and semiconductors; XLF 23.95 and SOX 657, respectively. XLF is at 23.69 creating market negativity. SOX is 661 creating market poistivity. Bears need SOX under 661 to unleash carnage. Bulls need XLF above 23.95 to create a relief rally, like today, only today's rally fizzled once XLF failed back under 23.95. If stocks sell off on Wednesday morning, but the SOX remains above 657, bears got nothing and stocks will recover.

For the SPX starting at 1973, the bears only need a smidge of red in the overnight S&P futures and stocks will accelerate lower after the opening bell. The bulls need to push the SPX above 2017 to regain their mojo, a formidable task. Instead, bulls will focus on keeping semiconductors bullish while pushing the banks higher with all their might. A move through the wide SPX 1974-2016 range is sideways action for Wednesday. The bears are driving the bus. Watch XLF 23.95 and SOX 657 to gauge broad market direction.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/16/14; 2:56 PM EST = +16; signal line is +36
12/16/14; 1:55 PM EST = +32; signal line is +37
12/16/14; 1:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +38
12/16/14; 11:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remans short but the bulls step up to the plate pushing XLF above 23.95 to create broad market bullishness. Equities float higher. Watch XLF 23.95 as the rudder steering the market ship. XLF is at 24.05 nine pennies in the bull camp creating lift in the stock market. The bulls  tighten the point gap to only seven points between the algo number and signal line but the bears remain relaxed. The VIX is actually up today despite the rally.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/16/14; 11:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +39
12/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as financials take the pipe with XLF down to 23.82. The bears are only able to push SOX down to 660, however. Bears need to push SOX under 657 to create another strong leg lower for equities and additional market mayhem. The SPX also maintains the lower boundary for today at 1982 trying to push down through but unable to so the bulls will push higher. Watch XLF 23.95 as the main guide; bears are fine below while a market rally will occur if the bulls push above. The pre-scheduled number results in a two-point decrease in the signal line closing the gap between the algo number and signal line to 24 points.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40
12/15/14; 3:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +42

Monday, December 15, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algo is off to an active start for Monday printing five numbers. The fight is currently over the financial sector which is impacting market direction more than any other variable. Note that XLF ends at 23.92 the exact number the algorithm called out yesterday for today. It is amazing how Keybot can identify these numbers before they occur. David Copperfield shakes his head in wonder and disbelief.

For Tuesday, watch XLF 23.95 as the bull-bear line in the sand. The XLF is in bear territory causing broad market selling by only three pennies. If the XLF moves above 23.95 after the opening bell tomorrow, stocks will rally. If XLF remains under 23.95 and moves lower, stocks will continue the downside collapse. If the bears win with weaker financials, watch semi's, SOX 657, since bears will gather even more fuel if this level fails. If the bulls win with XLF, markets will be floating higher so watch VIX 14.85 which signals the all-clear for bulls. If the VIX remains above 14.85, stocks will remains weak indefinitely moving forward.

For the SPX starting at 1990, the bulls need to touch the 2019 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate well into the 2020's. The bears need to push under 1982 and stocks will immediately collapse to 1978 and then 1973. A move through 1983-2018 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus. Listen and watch for any news concerning banks overnight good or bad. Bulls need stronger financials tomorrow or they are in for more pain. Stronger copper will also help the bulls recover. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
12/15/14; 3:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +42
12/15/14; 2:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +43
12/15/14; 2:17 PM EST = +16; signal line is +44
12/15/14; 12:41 PM EST = +32; signal line is +47
12/15/14; 11:27 AM EST = +16; signal line is +48
12/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +49

Sunday, December 14, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new week of trading. The bears need weaker financials to push the stock market down another leg. Watch XLF 23.92 with price at 24.14 to begin the week. If bears receive 22 pennies of downside in XLF the SPX will drop to the 1990's and even 1980's. The bulls must send the banks higher from the get-go or they are in serious trouble.

The bulls need to either push copper higher with JJC above 36.10 or push the NYA Index above 10750 to reestablish an uptrend. Bulls will likely focus on copper. If the stock market bounces on Monday but neither JJC or NYA cooperate, then markets will roll back over to the downside.

For the SPX starting at 2002, any smidge of negativity in the overnight S&P futures will create another several-handle acceleration move lower for the SPX to begin the week. Market bulls must keep the S&P futures positive by all means necessary or the SPX will be tumbling under 2000. The bulls need to push the SPX above 2032 to accelerate the upside in stocks, a very difficult task although in these markets anything is game, so instead the bulls will focus on keeping the S&P futures positive, preventing the banks from dropping and pushing copper higher. A move through 2003-2031 is sideways action to begin the week. The bears are driving the bus. Pay attention to copper.

12/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
12/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +49
12/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +50

Saturday, December 13, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish through the weekend. Financials drop big on Friday with XLF down to 24.14. The XLF 23.92 is identified as the bull-bear line in the sand but this can be firmed up after the pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. Financials, the NYA, copper and semiconductors are all receiving interest by the algo since they are impacting market direction. The bears end the strong historic bull market rally from mid-October to the early December top.

12/14/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +50

Friday, December 12, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the Friday session is underway and the pre-scheduled number prints improving the algo number by two points but remaining well under the +50 signal line. The SPX collapsed through 2028 so the 2022 handle printed quickly. Stocks are moderating sideways with NYA and JJC under the targets previously listed and XLF above. The bears are becoming comfortable on the short side. Bulls need higher NYA Index and higher copper.

12/14/14; 7:00 PM EST =
12/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +50
12/11/14; 2:03 PM EST = +30; signal line is +50