Monday, August 29, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as stocks rally to begin the new week. The algo prints three numbers today and prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning shortly after trading begins. If the GTX moves above 2272 and SPX above 2183, Keybot will likely flip long. If GTX turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If RTH slips under 79.53, stocks will begin selling off. If VIX moves above 14.47, stocks will be falling like a rock.

For the SPX on Tuesday starting at 2180, the bulls need three points higher, to move above 2183 and stocks will accelerate higher towards 2190. The bears need to push below 2170 to get their mojo back. A move through 2171-2182 on Tuesday is sideways action. The beat goes on.

8/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/16; 10:00 AM EST =
8/29/16; 11:24 AM EST = +64; signal line is +75

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the market roller coaster ride continues. The battle for market direction control is between retail stocks and commodities. Bulls win with GTX above 2272. Bears win with RTH under 79.53. If commodities remain in the bear camp and retail stocks in the bull camp, the stock market will stagger sideways with a slight upward bias. If GTX moves above 2272 and SPX above 2188, Keybot will likely flip long. If commodities turn bullish, consider the imminent turn, a potential whipsaw move back to the long side, to be in play.

8/30/16; 10:00 AM EST = 
8/29/16; 11:24 AM EST = +64; signal line is +75
8/29/16; 10:54 AM EST = +48; signal line is +75
8/29/16; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +76
8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST = +62; signal line is +76

Sunday, August 28, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side as of last Friday. Markets remain erratic and unstable so a whipsaw back to the long side may occur. Retail stocks are the key focus to begin the week. If RTH remains below 79.53 (now at 79.46) stocks will continue drifting lower. Market bulls need RTH above 79.53 which will signal that market selling is over and stocks will move higher. Keybot probably wants to see RTH above 79.53 and SPX above 2188 to whipsaw back to the long side.

For the bears to gain further downside traction, VIX needs to move above 14.47 (now at 13.65) and GTX needs to move below 2271 (now at 2288). So retail, volatility and commodities are the three parameters currently most influencing market direction.

For the SPX starting at 2169, the bulls need to push above 2188 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2160 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2161-2187 is sideways action to begin the week.

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week. The month ends on Wednesday. The SPX began August at 2173.60 so there may be a fight at this level heading into mid-week. The US Monthly Jobs Report is Friday. The Labor Day holiday is Monday, 9/5/16, so stocks may be buoyant at the tail end of this week into the three-day holiday weekend.

9/4/16; 7:00 PM EST =
9/2/16; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/16; 10:00 AM EST =
8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST = +62; signal line is +76
8/26/16; 3:20 PM EST = +62; signal line is +77

Saturday, August 27, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side during the Friday trade at noon time at SPX 2166. Retail stocks, volatility and commodities are the three key parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently. Retail is in the bear camp crating market weakness while volatility and commodities are in the bull camp creating lift in stocks. The tickers and key levels for next week can be called out after Sunday's pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

After two weeks of threatening to go short, the algorithm finally makes the move. A whipsaw is in play due to the erratic choppiness of the stock market. If retail stocks rally, the bulls will regain their footing. If volatility spikes, stocks will begin falling in earnest.

On the last trade, which was a long one for Keybot, about seven weeks duration, the algo program gains +3.6% and the actual trading gains +3.6%. The benchmark SPX is up +6.0% this year. Keybot's actual trading gains this year are nearly +18%. The algo exits SPY and enters SDS going back into the double ETF plays. The beat goes on.

8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/16; 3:20 PM EST = +62; signal line is +77
8/26/16; 2:22 PM EST = +48; signal line is +77
8/26/16; 12:10 PM EST = +62; signal line is +77; go short 2166; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +6.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.6%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +10.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.6%; Actual results for 2016 = +17.7%)
8/26/16; 12:00 PM EST = +62; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
8/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = +78; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
8/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/21/16; 7:00 PM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/19/16; 1:31 PM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/19/16; 1:02 PM EST = +78; signal line is +76
8/19/16; 11:09 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/19/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +76
8/18/16; 11:19 AM EST = +94; signal line is +76
8/18/16; 11:09 AM EST = +78; signal line is +76
8/18/16; 10:55 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/18/16; 10:43 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/18/16; 9:36 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/17/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/16/16; 11:36 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/16/16; 10:47 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/16/16; 10:35 AM EST = +64; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
8/16/16; 9:00 AM EST = +78; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
8/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/14/16; 7:00 PM EST = +64; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
8/12/16; 10:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
8/12/16; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
8/11/16; 9:48 AM EST = +79; signal line is +77
8/10/16; 12:37 PM EST = +63; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
8/10/16; 9:36 AM EST = +79; signal line is +77
8/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
8/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
8/4/16; 12:25 PM EST = +63; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long
8/4/16; 12:01 PM EST = +79; signal line is +75
8/4/16; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
7/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +79; signal line is +75
7/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = +79; signal line is +74
7/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +74
7/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +74
7/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +82; signal line is +75
7/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +75
7/15/16; 11:07 AM EST = +82; signal line is +75
7/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = +96; signal line is +75
7/15/16; 9:53 AM EST = +98; signal line is +75
7/14/16; 11:52 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
7/14/16; 11:31 AM EST = +98; signal line is +74
7/13/16; 10:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +72
7/12/16; 11:42 AM EST = +98; signal line is +72
7/12/16; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70
7/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
7/8/16; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67
7/8/16; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long
7/7/16; 11:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains long
7/7/16; 10:54 AM EST = +66; signal line is +62
7/7/16; 10:39 AM EST = +82; signal line is +61
7/7/16; 9:56 AM EST = +66; signal line is +59
7/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = +82; signal line is +58
7/6/16; 1:01 PM EST = +66; signal line is +57; go long 2097; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.1%)

Friday, August 26, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. Fed Chair Yellen will begin speaking in Jackson Hole in 90 minutes one-half hour after the opening bell. That is also when Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number for this week.

Retail stocks collapsed yesterday. The dollar stores were beaten like a rented mule. Amazingly, RTH drops to 79.53 exactly at the 79.53 line in the sand that the quant identifies. As retail stocks go, so goes the markets. If RTH drops below 79.53, and the SPX drops under 2170, Keybot will likely flip short. GTX under 2271 (note how GTX came down to test this level yesterday and bounced telling you that the bears did not have enough juice; Keybot is a smart robot) and VIX above 14.50 will also benefit the market bears. If RTH remains above 79.53, bulls are fine and stocks should float sideways to sideways higher.

For the SPX starting at 2172, the bulls need to push above 2179 and bingo, stocks will accelerate well into the 2180's. The bears need only 2 points lower, to push under 2170, and the downside will accelerate to the low to mid 2160's in a flash. A move through 2171-2178 is sideways action.

All eyes are watching Fed Chair Yellen. Watch RTH 79.53 and SPX 2170 to assess stock market direction.

8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
8/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo has not printed a number since Monday. Note how commodities, GTX, fell to the 2270-2272 line in the sand identified by Keybot and bounced refusing to fail. It is amazing that the algo can call these specific parameters and the actual levels out before they occur. If you are not impressed, you should be.

Bears need to either push GTX under 2271 (now at 2278) and/or VIX above 14.45 (now at 13.45) to create stock market selling. If both turn bearish, stocks will be falling like a rock. If one of the two turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2171, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn to the bears side is back in play.

For the SPX starting at 2175, the bulls need to push above 2187 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push below 2171 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2172-2186 is sideways action for Thursday.

Watch GTX 2271, VIX 14.45 and SPX 2171; these three numbers will likely tell the market story on Thursday.

8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
8/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The beat goes on. The algo prints one number after yesterday's opening bell. Copper is in the bear camp and commodities are in the bull camp. These two parameters remain key to broad stock market direction currently. If GTX loses 2272 (now at 2297) and SPX drops under 2176, Keybot will likely flip short and stocks may begin falling in earnest. If GTX loses 2272 consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play. If JJC moves above 24.78 (now at 24.46), the bulls will ride stocks higher with the SPX back on track towards 2200.

For the SPX starting at 2183, the bulls need to push above 2185 to accelerate the upside while the bears need to push under 2176 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2177-2184 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bulls remain in control but only by a  single hair with the algo number only one tick above the signal line.

Watch JJC, 24.78, GTX 2272 and SPX 2176. S&P futures are indicating a +5 gain at the opening bell about three hours away. If stocks rally today, but the JJC does not move above 24.78, bulls got nothing and stocks will roll back over to the downside. If stocks and copper rally with JJC above 24.78, the bulls will be throwing confetti. Copper is marginally negative in overnight trading.

8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
8/22/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/21/16; 7:00 PM EST = +94; signal line is +77

Sunday, August 21, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo is active on Friday printing four numbers. The bulls remain in control and the model remains in nosebleed territory at overbot levels at +94 (+100 is the maximum possible reading). Copper remains key to broad stock market direction. Watch JJC 24.80; now at 24.86 in the bull camp creating uplift in stocks.

Bears will benefit from JJC under 24.80, GTX under 2268 and/or UTIL under 665.34.

For the SPX starting the week at 2184, the bulls need to push above 2185 and bingo, 2190+ will occur quickly. The bears need to push below 2175 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2176-2184 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday.

8/28/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
8/21/16; 7:00 PM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/19/16; 1:31 PM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/19/16; 1:02 PM EST = +78; signal line is +76
8/19/16; 11:09 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/19/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +76
8/18/16; 11:19 AM EST = +94; signal line is +76

Friday, August 19, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo prints five numbers in the Thursday session the most active day for the model in two weeks or more. Isn't it amazing that the algorithm can call out the most important parameter that impacts the direction of the stock market including the key level for that parameter? JJC ends the session at 24.80 exactly at the bull-bear line in the sand called out ahead of time at 24.79-24.80. This is astounding. Enjoy the information while it is presented since if the Keystone family of web sites are not supported properly, the ongoing information can end at anytime.

The copper pivot will send stocks in the same direction. Copper futures are trading lower overnight so JJC should slip into the bear camp after the opening bell for the regular session and create sogginess in stocks. S&P futures are down -5 three hours before the opening bell. The market bears likely need more than weak copper, however, to flip the algo short. Bears need GTX to drop under 2268. Weak utilities and higher volatility will also help bears.

The collapse in utilities in recent days is very important. A roll over in utes is a negative signal for the stock market. UTIL 665.34 is a key bull-bear level identified by Keybot and it comes into play at 4 PM EST today and all of next week. UTIL is at 691.52 but has printed as low as 667.43 this week. If UTIL loses 665.34 over the coming days, the stock market will be in serious trouble.

For the SPX starting at 2187 for the Friday session, the bulls need any smidge of green in the S&P futures and the SPX will run several handles higher into the 2190's. S&P futures point to a lower open. The bears need to push under 2180 to accelerate the downside.

The bulls continue to drive the bus. Lower copper will help the bears move towards flipping the model short but the algo will likely want to see more such as GTX under 2268, UTIL under 665 and/or VIX above 14.58 (now at 12.04 in early trading) to commit to the short side.

8/21/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/16; 11:19 AM EST = +94; signal line is +76
8/18/16; 11:09 AM EST = +78; signal line is +76
8/18/16; 10:55 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/18/16; 10:43 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/18/16; 9:36 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77
8/17/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77

Thursday, August 18, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints one number in the Wednesday trade. The bulls maintain control of markets with the algo number one tick above the signal line. Bulls need higher copper, JJC above 24.79 (now at 24.66), to guarantee more upside in the stock market. Copper is trading up about +1.5% overnight which is about 37 cents to the JJC which will place copper in the bull camp and make for happy bulls. JJC 24.79 is key today.

Bears need to keep copper under 24.79 and pull GTX under 2263 to send the stock market lower. The weakness in the US dollar index causes lift in commodities and copper and a punch to the bear's face. A higher dollar will likely reward the bears.

For the SPX starting at 2182, the bulls need only one point, to push above 2183, and bingo, price will run towards 2190. The bears need to push below 2169 to accelerate lower. A move through 2170-2182 is sideways action for Thursday.

The bulls continue to steer the bus. If copper remains weak, and GTX drops under 2263, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops under 2169, Keybot may flip short, but this scenario does not appear on the table with copper rising in the pre-market. Copper and commodities are dictating stock market direction currently.

8/21/16; 7:00 PM EST =
8/17/16; 9:36 AM EST = +78; signal line is +77
8/16/16; 11:36 AM EST = +94; signal line is +77