Wednesday, December 2, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo quietly motors through another week. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3678 yesterday and new all-time closing high today at 3669. The pre-scheduled number prints but the quant does not print any other numbers as yet this week. The bulls have the market parameters pegged to the ceiling.

The bulls are in charge of market direction with the algo number 21 points above the signal line. Bears need the VIX above 25.50 but the bulls have it down at 21.17. Bears would also benefit from weaker retail stocks and utilities. The bulls enjoy another beautiful day at Itchykoo Park.

12/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
12/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +72; signal line is +51
11/29/20; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +49

Sunday, November 29, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through another sleepy week. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. Bears need weaker utilities and retail stocks and higher volatility. Bears need the VIX above 25.70 (now at 20.84) or they got nothing.

Keybot prints the month-end (EOM) number tomorrow and another pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. December trading begins on Tuesday.

12/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
12/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/20; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +49
11/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +46
11/24/20; 10:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +43
11/22/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +41

Sunday, November 22, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new holiday-shortened week of trading is about to begin. US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and Friday is a half-session (that is typically bullish). The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 32 points above the signal line.

The quant is tracking volatility and retail stocks as the two key parameters most impacting market direction currently. Bears need VIX above 26.04 (now at 23.70) and RTH below 151.30 (now at 154.40). These two parameters will likely tell the story for Monday. If both remain bullish, stocks float higher. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, consider the caution flag out as stocks become soggy. If both parameters turn bearish, stocks will be selling off in earnest and consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on hump day morning, Thanksgiving Eve. The month of November ends (EOM) on Monday a week hence. So there are only 4-1/2 trading days remining in the month before December begins on Tuesday, 12/1/20.

11/29/20; 7:00 PM EST =
11/25/20; 10:00 AM EST =
11/24/20; 10:00 AM EST =
11/22/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +41
11/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +38

Saturday, November 21, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The quant is sleepy last week only printing the pre-scheduled number on Wednesday morning. The stock market is in suspended animation. If stocks begin selling off, it will likely occur with higher volatility (VIX) and weaker retail stocks (think AMZN, HD, LOW, WMT, TGT, COST, JD, DG, CVS, etc.) leading the way down. For now, the bulls are happy with the algo number 35 points above the signal line.

11/22/20; 7:00 PM EST =
11/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +38

Thursday, November 19, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The quant is idling along this week without printing any numbers thus far except for the pre-scheduled number. The bulls are running the show with the algo number 35 points above the signal line.

Bears need higher volatility and must push VIX above 26.04 or they got nothing. The VIX is currently trading at 23.64. Retail stocks may come into play over the coming days, also, perhaps copper and commodities depending on if the dollar moves higher.

11/22/20; 7:00 PM EST =
11/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +38
11/15/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +36

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 37 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. The PFE and MRNA vaccine hype creates joy in the stock market over the last week. Banks rally sending the major indexes higher. Bears need higher volatility and must push VIX above 26.00 to create stock market negativity. Bears got nothing until this happens. VIX is currently trading at 22.40 with S&P futures up +4.

Price action remains erratic and unstable. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

11/22/20; 7:00 PM EST =
11/18/20; 9:00 AM EST =
11/15/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +36
11/13/20; 10:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +35
11/12/20; 3:59 PM EST = +73; signal line is +34
11/12/20; 2:06 PM EST = +59; signal line is +33
11/10/20; 10:56 AM EST = +73; signal line is +32
11/10/20; 10:43 AM EST = +59; signal line is +31
11/9/20; 9:36 AM EST = +73; signal line is +31
11/8/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +31

Sunday, November 8, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as America wrestles through the election drama. Joe Biden is named the 46th President of the United States but President Trump refuses to concede.

From election day (11/3/20) forward, the bulls are pumping chips, banks, retail stocks and commodities higher while slapping volatility lower. Stocks rocket launch higher. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 28 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. Bulls need stronger commodities to keep the party going. Bulls need GTX above 1722 (now at 1705) and that will create a strong leg higher in equities.

The bears are going to try and create negativity by smacking banks lower and pushing volatility higher; XLF below 24.58 (now at 24.96) and VIX above 26.84 (now at 24.86), respectively. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, the stock market will roll over with a downward bias. If both parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 3484 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday the 13th a superstitious day. It will be interesting to see how markets react to the new President-Elect Biden and the lame-duck President Trump who is hiding in the Lincoln Bedroom refusing to concede.

11/15/20; 7:00 PM EST =
11/13/20; 10:00 AM EST =
11/8/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +31
11/6/20; 10:16 AM EST = +59; signal line is +31
11/6/20; 9:53 AM EST = +45; signal line is +31
11/6/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +32
11/5/20; 9:30 AM EST = +59; signal line is +32
11/5/20; 4:53 AM EST = +73; signal line is +32
11/4/20; 11:48 AM EST = +59; signal line is +32
11/3/20; 9:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +32; go long 3360; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +4.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.0%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +44.0%)

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips into the bull camp this morning shortly after the opening bell at SPX 3360. The bulls have been trying to hoist the slippery chips higher this week, and now succeeded, along with pumping retail stocks and banks higher; a trifecta of bull glory.

Today is the US Presidential Election Day, 11/3/20. Vote early and often, as the saying goes. Humorously, America chooses between two corrupt silver-haired white guys. The stock market may whipsaw in the coming days as election results are finalized. Perhaps the winner will be known around midnight tonight.

Bulls need stronger commodities and lower volatility to send stocks higher. Bulls need GTX above 1723 and this is what they are gunning for right now.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, banks and chips, which will likely fail in that order. Bears need RTH below 148.30, XLF below 24.58 and/or SOX below 2261. Any 1 of the 3 slipping into the bear camp will immediately halt the upside rally. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side in play, and then if the SPX drops below 3280-ish (a long way down), Keybot will likely flip short. Thus, stocks may stumble along sideways until the existing or new king is crowned in America.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the algo program gains nearly +2% and the actual trading gains +1.4%. For the year, the statistics are all whole numbers which is interesting. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +4% in 2020 while the quant program gains +24% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +44% this year thus far. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. The world awaits the election results. Is King Donnie Trump the winner or Sleepy Joe Biden?

11/8/20; 7:00 PM EST =
11/3/20; 9:56 AM EST = +45; signal line is +32; go long 3360; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +4.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.0%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +44.0%)
11/3/20; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +33
11/2/20; 12:06 PM EST = -3; signal line is +34
11/2/20; 11:51 AM EST = +13; signal line is +37
11/2/20; 11:25 AM EST = -3; signal line is +39
11/2/20; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +41
11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -3; signal line is +43
10/30/20; 10:18 AM EST = -3; signal line is +46
10/30/20; 10:09 AM EST = +13; signal line is +47
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +49
10/30/20; 9:47 AM EST = -3; signal line is +50
10/29/20; 10:44 AM EST = +13; signal line is +53
10/28/20; 9:38 AM EST = -3; signal line is +54
10/28/20; 9:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +56
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +57
10/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +57
10/26/20; 10:50 AM EST = +29; signal line is +56
10/26/20; 10:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +57; go short 3421; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.6%)

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The bears are in control of stock market direction with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Bears enjoy high volatility and weaker banks while bulls maintain market buoyancy with commodities, retail stocks and chips.

Bears need GTX back below 1731, RTH below 149.22 and/or SOX below 2263. You can gauge the depth of any stock market selloff by which and how many of these three parameters flip bearish. Scamazon is in the RTH so that would be a key failure and any weakness in chips will weaken the stock market. If stocks sell off but none of these Three Stooges flip bearish, the stock market will recovery and rally. If one turns bearish, stocks take a noticeable dip, if two fail, the selling is in your face and strong, if all three flip bearish, stocks will be falling apart to the downside with the blood flowing on Wall Street.

Bulls need to keep the commodities, retail stocks and chips in their camp while at the same time pumping the banks higher and volatility lower. Bulls need XLF above 24.66. Yesterday, the market goes as banks go, and they went lower so stocks went lower and S&P futures are currently down -50 points this morning. Bullish traders rising on the East Coast just soiled their sheets. Bulls need VIX below 27.01 and they got nothing until they bring volatility lower. VIX is currently trading and pops above 36.

11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST = +43; signal line is +57
10/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +57
10/26/20; 10:50 AM EST = +29; signal line is +56

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 3421 during the market hiccup. As always, remain vigilant for a potential whipsaw move today. Commodities and banks create the stock market softness but the late session rally brought the banks back from the dead. Bulls need lower volatility and stronger commodities. Bears need weaker banks, chips and retail stocks.

Bulls need VIX below 27.01 or they got nothing. Bulls also need GTX above 1730 and XLF above 24.68. XLF closes yesterday exactly on top of the 24.68 identified by the quant. As banks go, so goes the markets. Bulls will celebrate if XLF moves above 24.68 heading higher but bears will be happy and stocks will remain weak, and deteriorate, if XLF drops below 24.68 moving lower.  

Bears also need RTH below 149.22 and SOX below 2263 which would create market carnage. Yesterday, RTH came down to kiss the bull-bear line in the sand but price recovered allowing the late-day rally.

XLF dictates stock market direction, if it moves higher, watch VIX to see if it can extend the rally. If XLF moves lower, watch RTH and SOX for potential failures which would usher in serious stock market negativity.

On the last trade, that ran for 3 weeks, the Keybot program gains +0.7% and the actual trading generated by Keybot gains +1.4%. Keybot exits QQQ and enters SDS flipping back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since it has been over a month since the whipsaw. The stock market may be moving out of its choppy pattern. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +6%, the Keybot the Quant program is up +22% and the actual trading is up +43%. Watch the banks. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning.

11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/20; 10:50 AM EST = +29; signal line is +56
10/26/20; 10:32 AM EST = +45; signal line is +57; go short 3421; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.6%)
10/26/20; 9:45 AM EST = +45; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/16/20; 4:10 PM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +52
10/16/20; 7:25 AM EST = +73; signal line is +50
10/16/20; 6:54 AM EST = +59; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 6:46 AM EST = +73; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 3:06 AM EST = +59; signal line is +46
10/15/20; 3:25 PM EST = +73; signal line is +45
10/15/20; 4:30 AM EST = +59; signal line is +43
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40
10/8/20; 1:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +38
10/8/20; 9:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +35
10/8/20; 9:08 AM EST = +73; signal line is +33
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 1:32 PM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 12:50 PM EST = +43; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 12:42 PM EST = +59; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 11:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 10:42 AM EST = +59; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/5/20; 2:59 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25; go long 3399; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.2%)

Monday, October 26, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls are in charge but only with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. Volatility is key and it moves higher this morning favoring bears. VIX is at 30-ish with S&P futures down -31. Bears need the VIX to remain above 27.19 while the bulls will throw confetti and sing happy songs if the VIX drops below 27.19.

Bears need weaker commodities, banks and chips to send stocks lower; GTX below 1730, XLF under 24.61 and SOX below 2250, respectively. If any one of the three turn bearish, and the SPX falls below 3440 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The US dollar index is moving higher weakening commodities so that may be the crack in the foundation. The XLF is down -1.4% in the pre-market but bears need double that loss to create market mayhem.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning the other Friday morning. The EOM is Friday, Halloween is Saturday and November trading begins one week from today on Monday, 11/2/20; the day before the US presidential election on Tuesday, 11/3/20 (the election day always occurs on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November).

11/1/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +55

Thursday, October 22, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and does not print any numbers this week thus far except for the pre-scheduled number. The bulls remain in control of stock market direction although the algo number is only 4 measly points above the signal line.

Volatility is the key metric steering the market ship. VIX 27.24 is the bull-bear line in the sand. VIX is trading at the 30.03 palindrome, in the bear camp; a 30-handle. The stock market will only go up if the VIX drops below 27.24. If the VIX remains above 27.24, the bears will win going forward. A  move above 30.58 will flush the stock market lower.

Two key parameters to watch are banks and commodities. Bears need XLF below 24.55 (now at 24.68) and GTX below 1730 (now at 1759). If either one turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 3433 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. S&P futures are down -23 slipping away this morning as are European stock indexes. Watch the banks.

10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST = +59; signal line is +55
10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +54

Sunday, October 18, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bull's momentum slips slightly. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only 5 points above the signal line. Interestingly, on Friday, the important price action for the stock market occurred outside of the standard session hours. 

Volatility is in the bear camp with the VIX at 27.41 above the critical 27.02 bull-bear line in the sand. Stocks will weaken if the VIX remains above 27.02. Bulls will be on easy street if the VIX falls below 27.02.

Bears need weaker copper, commodities and/or banks, CPER below 18.50, GTX below 1726 and/or XLF below 24.50, respectively. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX falls below 3480, Keybot will likely flip short. Copper futures will need to fall about -2.7% so the bears have their work cut out for them. Banks reported earnings last week so watch to see if any sogginess shows up in financials this week.

VIX 27.02 is the rudder steering the stock market ship. Another way for the bears to steal the stock market back away from the bulls is to keep jogging volatility above and below 27.02 during the Monday session. Each time that the VIX price jogs below and then back above 27.02 the signal line will move higher to eventually confront the algorithm number and perhaps set up the flip to the bear side. If you see the VIX price jog above and below 27.02 two or three times on Monday, take that as a hint that the stock market is ready to turn south. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning before the opening bell. 

10/25/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/20; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST = +59; signal line is +54
10/16/20; 4:10 PM EST = +59; signal line is +53
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST = +73; signal line is +52
10/16/20; 7:25 AM EST = +73; signal line is +50
10/16/20; 6:54 AM EST = +59; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 6:46 AM EST = +73; signal line is +48
10/16/20; 3:06 AM EST = +59; signal line is +46

Friday, October 16, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The algorithm is sleepy this week. Last week it was printing numbers like crazy. The bulls are cruising but weaker copper, commodities and/or banks would help the bears.

The bulls must push volatility lower to prove they can push stocks higher. Bulls need VIX below 27.02 and it is currently trading at 27.35. S&P futures are down -2, call it flat. Bulls will throw confetti and celebrate into the weekend if the VIX drops below 27.02.

Bears must keep VIX above 27.02. In addition, bears need weaker banks and must push XLF below 24.52. If banks fail, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Weaker copper and commodities also help the bears but they are at elevated levels. A stronger US dollar index would drive copper and commodities lower.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. VIX 27.02 is the rudder that will steer the stock market ship on Friday.

10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/16/20; 3:06 AM EST = +59; signal line is +46
10/15/20; 3:25 PM EST = +73; signal line is +45
10/15/20; 4:30 AM EST = +59; signal line is +43
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40

Monday, October 12, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are on a rampage higher. The quant did not print any numbers today. Bears need higher volatility and weaker commodities and copper; VIX above 26.97, GTX below 1723 and CPER below 18.50, respectively. The algorithm likely needs to see 2 of the 3 to flip bearish to flip the model short and that may not be enough; one of the two may have to jog above and below the key number listed above at least once. If all 3 flip bearish, Keybot may flip short immediately.

10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks continue higher on fiscal stimulus hype. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 33 points above the signal line a big margin. The quant did not print any numbers on Friday. The bulls are cruising.

Bears need higher volatility to stop the equity rally. Bears need VIX above 27.10 and it is currently trading at 25.59 up this morning along with S&P futures up +7 so one of them is wrong. Bears need weaker copper and commodities so watch the US dollar closely this week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The stimulus bill news is moving stocks up and down. Traders believe a stimulus deal will occur after the election if not sooner.

10/18/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/16/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST = +73; signal line is +40
10/8/20; 1:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +38

Thursday, October 8, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Slap. Thwack. Oooff. Those are the sounds from the shed out back as the bears are beaten to a pulp. VIX falls below the key VIX 27.16 bull-bear line in the sand so stocks take off higher. Three numbers print today with the bulls in charge and cruising along with the algo number 35 points above the signal line. Stocks twist higher.

Bulls are in good shape and simply need to keep VIX below 27.16. Bears must immediately push volatility higher and VIX above 27.16 to stop the stock market rally or they got nothing.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/8/20; 1:55 PM EST = +73; signal line is +38
10/8/20; 9:18 AM EST = +59; signal line is +35
10/8/20; 9:08 AM EST = +73; signal line is +33
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. The bulls partying like its 1999. The bulls pumped copper out of the gate on hump day and stocks never looked back. FCX launches +7.4%. Any move in copper is exacerbated in that same direction by Freeport-McMoRan.

Oddly, volatility remains in the bear camp. This never happens. When the stock market is moving in a particular direction, volatility is always towards the front or the middle of the pack leading in that direction. Now the VIX continues scooping up the horse manure at the end of the bull parade. Something is wrong somewhere. Bulls need VIX below 27.18 to prove that the move higher in equities is real. If the VIX does not drop below 27.18, stocks will weaken and roll over going forward. VIX is trading at 27.84 with the S&P futures up +15. The bulls need another 66 cents lower in the VIX to prove that they can take stocks higher. Otherwise, they cannot.

Bears need to keep volatility elevated while pounding copper and commodities lower. The stock market rally is over if CPER drops below 18.33 and GTX below 1719. For now, the bulls are in charge but the caution flag remains out since the market price action is erratic and unstable.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/20; 9:36 AM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Displaying Keybot the Quant Turns in 2020



The SPX chart shows the turns this year for the Keybot the Quant algorithm robot. Red is where Keybot went short and green is where it went long. The big money-maker's this year thus far was long in January, then short in February and March, then long in late May-early June, long in July, long in August and short in September.

Note the cluster of whipsaw turns in the upper right of the chart; the current ongoing action. Chop suey. Bulls and bears alike are chopped-up in sideways whipsaw price moves.

Be Charitable; Increase Your Worth and Wealth While Helping Humanity

Be charitable, empathetic and compassionate in these crazy troubled times. Helping others helps yourself; it creates spiritual wealth. Do not forget to support your local charities. Gather up the canned goods that have been sitting in the cabinets or pantry for a while and donate them to the food bank. That will give you a chance to clean the shelves and then you can go out and buy new stuff for yourself. The food bank will appreciate it and you end up with a clean kitchen.

Winter is coming fast in the northern states. Disadvantaged kids always need coats, hats, gloves, scarves, sweaters, sweatshirts and boots to fend off the frigid winds. As a child, Keystone (Keybot the Quant algorithm and K E Stone articles, books and blogs) remembers pulling bread wrappers over his feet before placing them in the boots because the boots leaked. When you are poor you do what you have to do. Humorously, by the time he arrived at school, the feet would be wet anyway from sweating in the plastic bags or the bags would work their way down the calf, ankle and end up only covering the front of the feet that now had wet socks. Those days are distant memories now, but you never forget your roots.

In America, sadly, many poor and disadvantaged children continue shivering in the cold and damp winter air while listening to their hunger pangs as other families enjoy lavish turkey and ham feasts in well-heated homes.

Last winter, you told yourself that your coat does not fit well anymore, it is out of style and you need a new one, so donate it to the local thrift store. Any winter clothing items would be appreciated. Search for the smaller locally-operated volunteer-type thrift shops ran by the blue-haired gal’s and silver-haired gentlemen since these little stores directly help the people in that community and your stuff will be put to good use quickly.

The bigger chain thrift stores collect money into one big pot and then disseminate the help from there--after some of that cash goes into corrupt people’s pockets. The small local volunteer thrift stores offer stuff real cheap for disadvantaged folks (so they maintain human dignity purchasing something with their own money) but most of these local stores will outright give people stuff if they are in desperate need. This does not happen out of those big chain thrift stores that control inventories with fancy colored bar code labels. Who knows, perhaps you will like the folks at that humble local thrift shop and after a few laughs find yourself volunteering once or twice per month. Most thrift stores also take food donations (canned goods, pasta, etc…) so you can drop off clothes and food at one place.

You can also make things to donate such as hats and scarves. At the local thrift store that Keystone supports and helps, a lady brought in a bag full of crocheted winter hats for women in early December; all different colors and styles. She is poor as a church mouse but gets by with her apartment and food and such. She spends all year crocheting the hats and then donates them to the local thrift stores in the region during November and December. That is a genuine, authentic, human being.

For the exercise enthusiasts and cyclists, there are many charities always conducting events such as walks, runs, bike runs, etc… The Spin4 events for cyclists help the Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation; that may be of interest to you. There are always charity walks and runs in the towns and cities near you; it is a great way to meet a bunch of like-minded people rallying around a specific cause.

Other ways you can be charitable, even if you say that you are too busy, is to ask your employer (HR person) about a volunteer program. Most large companies already offer these programs to employees. The volunteer program is typically structured where an employee will agree to volunteer, say, 12 times during the year, once per month, at a local hospital, senior center, thrift store, etc.., and in return, the employer pays the employee as if it was a regular day at work. Everybody wins. The employee gets out of the office or shop once per month for something different, the place where the volunteer work occurs (usually selected by the volunteer and approved by the company) benefits from receiving help that day and the employer benefits from good will with people thinking highly of the business or company since it supports and cares about the community. These programs can be structured in lots of different ways. If your company does not have a volunteer program, perhaps spearhead an effort or ask the HR person if that can be put on the agenda at a company meeting to see if folks are interested. Yes, they will be interested.

Lighten your heart and soul by helping others and you will receive wealth beyond your wildest dreams.

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and prints 7 numbers in the Tuesday session. These are wild markets. The quant has been going nutso lately spitting out numbers left and right. Tuesday was another choppy session. The bulls started to run stocks higher on stronger copper and commodities in the afternoon but President Trump cancelled stimulus talks which tanked the stock market.

The move lower in stocks and futures is muted since traders know that the president is likely bloviating as usual and sure enough, only hours later, Trump is talking about $1,200 stimulus checks for Americans and more bailout stimulus money for airlines (huge layoffs coming if stimulus is not provided). S&P futures are +18 with the VIX remaining elevated at 29.56. Both futures and volatility are higher right now so one of them is wrong.

The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. Bulls are receiving strength from commodities and must keep GTX above 1718. Bulls need CPER above 18.33 and VIX below 27.22 to create upside joy in equities. Watch commodities, copper and volatility.

Bears need copper and volatility to remain in their camp and to pull GTX below 1718 to get commodities back in their camp. This will send stocks south and potentially flip the model short. Bears also benefit from weaker banks if XLF drops below 24.30. If commodities or banks, or retail stocks for that matter, fail, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX then moves below 3354 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/20; 2:16 PM EST = +43; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 1:32 PM EST = +59; signal line is +30
10/6/20; 12:50 PM EST = +43; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 12:42 PM EST = +59; signal line is +29
10/6/20; 11:09 AM EST = +43; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 10:42 AM EST = +59; signal line is +27
10/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = +43; signal line is +26
10/5/20; 2:59 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25; go long 3399; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.2%)

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3399. The last couple days of choppy action is due to President Trump's coronavirus drama. The bulls are in charge but stocks remain a coin-flip with the algo number only 4 points above the signal line. The markets are chop suey. Bulls and bears alike are chopped-up and served cold.

There remains several moving parts creating the whipsaw price action. Typically, only one or two parameters will dominate the US stock market direction on any given day but for the last month there are at least six, seven, sometimes more, parameters jumping around like ping-pong balls. These are epic times for the stock market.

The bulls need to see stronger copper and commodities and lower volatility; CPER above 18.35, GTX above 1717 and VIX below 27.18, respectively. Any one of these flipping bullish will create upside in the stock market, two will create bigtime equity gains and all three will send stocks catapulting higher. Copper and commodities would move lower on a stronger US dollar now trading marginally lower at 93.45. Coper futures are dead flat. At the same time, bulls will try to keep pumping utilities and banks higher.

The bears need to see weaker utilities and banks; UTIL below 826.80 and XLF below 24.30, respectively. Banks receive a boost as the yield curve steepens. At the same time, bears will try to keep stabbing and kicking copper and commodities lower while keeping volatility elevated. If either UTIL or XLF turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and then if the SPX drops below 3367, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. For now, the caution flag is out.

UTIL above 826.80 is a huge win for bulls. If UTIL remains above 826, the stock market will likely not take a huge dramatic tumble into year end. If UTIL falls back below 826, and down to and below 8 hundo, trending lower, that would spell major trouble ahead for the stock market on the intermediate term basis.

The VIX 27.18 bull-bear line in the sand is important. The VIX is coming on line now. Let's see. VIX 28.18. S&P -3. Volatility initially moves higher out of the gate giving a nod to the bears. Watch this closely. Bears win going forward if VIX remains above 27.18. Bulls will be enjoying a nice rally higher in stocks if VIX falls below 27.18.

On the last trade that ran for about 12 hours, the quant program loses -2% and the actual trading loses -1%. The whipsaw action continues. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ. For the year thus far, the S&P 500, the US stock market, is up +5.2%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up about +22% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +41%. Humorously, President Trump is back and this time it is no more Mr Nice Guy.

10/11/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/20; 2:59 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25; go long 3399; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +5.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.2%)
10/5/20; 2:19 PM EST = +29; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/5/20; 10:52 AM EST = +43; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST = +29; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:58 PM EST = +29; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:33 PM EST = +43; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:18 PM EST = +29; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:27 PM EST = +43; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 1:56 PM EST = +13; signal line is +17
10/2/20; 1:45 PM EST = +29; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:18 PM EST = +45; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:05 PM EST = +13; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 11:31 AM EST = +29; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:48 AM EST = +13; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +6
10/2/20; 9:30 AM EST = -3; signal line is +4; go short 3331; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = +3.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.2%)

Saturday, October 3, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3331 after Friday's opening bell as the stock market pandemonium continues. President Trump tests positive for coronavirus and is not on camera on Friday creating stock market angst. Hopefully, the president and First Lady, and a dozen others now sickened with COVID-19 in and around the Whitehouse, make speedy recoveries. Stocks collapsed at the open but that was the low print for the day. The bulls pumped utilities, copper and the banks higher to stabilize the stock market but copper faded. The stimulus deal is slightly more likely now that the president has taken ill which buoys stocks.

The quant prints 15 numbers on Friday a very active day. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 5 points above the signal line but the internal program parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The unprecedented price behavior continues. This is Crazy erratic stuff occurring as dip-buyers constantly want to jump back into the market on any little pullback since everyone knows the Federal Reserve and other global central banks will print money forever to keep stocks elevated. Something's likely going to give at some point forward. If the SPX moves above 3369 on Monday, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the long side.

The smoke is still clearing from Friday's activity. The bulls need SPX 3369 and they are all-clear for more upside. Bulls need lower volatility and stronger copper and commodities to push equities higher. The wild intraday huge moves up and down are occurring with the VIX still in the 20's. Just think how wild the price action will be in the days and weeks ahead when the VIX is in the 30's; the Dow will be moving 500, 600, 700 or more points intraday each way and day to day. It will be fun.

Bears need weaker banks and utilities to create a sharp down move in the stock market. Volatility, copper, banks and utes are going to determine market direction on Monday.

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading about +4%. Keybot exits IWM and enters PSQ remaining in the 1x ETF's. For the year thus far, the SPX is up +3%, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +24% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +42%.

10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/20; 3:58 PM EST = +29; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:33 PM EST = +43; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 3:18 PM EST = +29; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:27 PM EST = +43; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 2:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 1:56 PM EST = +13; signal line is +17
10/2/20; 1:45 PM EST = +29; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:18 PM EST = +45; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 12:05 PM EST = +13; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 11:31 AM EST = +29; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:48 AM EST = +13; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +6
10/2/20; 9:30 AM EST = -3; signal line is +4; go short 3331; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.5%)(Actual trading results this trade = +3.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.2%)
10/2/20; 9:00 AM EST = -3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
10/2/20; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
10/1/20; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +3
9/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +41; signal line is +2
9/30/20; 3:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is -1
9/30/20; 2:52 PM EST = +27; signal line is -4
9/30/20; 2:12 PM EST = +41; signal line is -7
9/30/20; 1:07 PM EST = +27; signal line is -11
9/30/20; 12:49 PM EST = +41; signal line is -14
9/29/20; 12:15 PM EST = +27; signal line is -17
9/29/20; 11:54 AM EST = +13; signal line is -19
9/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is -23
9/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is -26
9/28/20; 11:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is -28
9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is -30
9/25/20; 1:39 PM EST = +20; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 1:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 11:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 11:07 AM EST = -26; signal line is -30
9/25/20; 10:45 AM EST = -10; signal line is -29
9/25/20; 10:41 AM EST = -26; signal line is -28
9/25/20; 9:39 AM EST = -42; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
9/25/20; 9:36 AM EST = -26; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains long
9/24/20; 3:52 PM EST = -10; signal line is -24; go long 3248; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.5%)

Thursday, October 1, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 39 points above the signal line. Commodities were pumped on hump day to create broad stock market gains. September is in the bag and October trading begins today. New money typically flows into the market to begin a month, especially a new quarter (Q4), creating buoyancy in equities. S&P futures are up +27 seven hours before the opening bell on Wall Street. Investors are also bulled-up on the hopes for a stimulus package. The US Monthly Jobs Report hits tomorrow so stocks may idle sideways waiting for that data.

Utilities and banks are the only two weak spots in the stock market. Bulls need UTIL above 826 and XLF above 24.26 to prove that there is more upside ahead for equities. XLF came up to test the 24.24-24.27 area yesterday and was repelled. Isn't it amazing the robot tells you these levels before they occur?

Bears need weaker commodities, utilities and copper and higher volatility; GTX under 1723.50, UTIL below 771, CPER below 18.37 and VIX above 27.18, respectively. Bears likely need three of these four to turn bearish to cause the model to flip short, however, if stocks begin selling off, chips and retail stocks may be dropping quickly.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers tomorrow morning one before the opening bell and one after. Follow the GTX 1723.50, VIX 27.18 and XLF 24.26 bull-bear lines in the sand that dictate stock market direction going forward.

10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/20; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +41; signal line is +2
9/30/20; 3:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is -1
9/30/20; 2:52 PM EST = +27; signal line is -4
9/30/20; 2:12 PM EST = +41; signal line is -7
9/30/20; 1:07 PM EST = +27; signal line is -11
9/30/20; 12:49 PM EST = +41; signal line is -14
9/29/20; 12:15 PM EST = +27; signal line is -17
9/29/20; 11:54 AM EST = +13; signal line is -19
9/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is -23

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 50 points above the signal line. The bulls took advantage of the weaker dollar yesterday pumping commodities higher which sent stocks higher. The pre-scheduled number for Tuesday prints and provides further lift in the stock market.

The upside rally will stop with weaker copper and higher volatility. Bears need CPER below 18.34, which may fail at any time, copper futures are on the border line now, and VIX above 27.17 (now at 26.08).

Bulls need stronger commodities, utilities and banks; GTX above 1723, UTIL above 826 and XLF above 24.24, respectively. Any one of these three parameters will immediately prove that the bulls got game. Every hour that goes by and the bulls do not pull one of these into their camp, however, means equities will likely become soggy and develop a downward bias.

The first of three US presidential debates occur this evening (East Coast time) so markets may idle sideways until the results are known.

9/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/20; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is -23
9/29/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is -26
9/28/20; 11:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is -28
9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is -30

Sunday, September 27, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side with the bulls in charge and the algo number 50 points above the signal line. Despite this huge spread, the caution flag remains out due to the crazy and wild swings in the stock market over the last week.

Bulls need stronger utilities, banks and commodities and lower volatility. UTIL begins at the 808 palindrome and the bulls will be celebrating if price tags the 828 palindrome. Bulls need GTX above 1723 which is only 6 bucks away. Bulls enjoy the VIX at 26.38 below the key bull-bear line in the sand at 27.46 which creates lift in the stock market.

Bears need weaker utilities, chips, retail stocks, copper and higher volatility. Bears need UTIL below 771 this week to create market weakness. Bears need CPER below 18.33 and it begins the week only 9 pennies above so watch copper futures overnight. Bears need VIX above 27.46 or they got nothing.

Keybot prints four pre-scheduled numbers during the week ahead. September ends on Wednesday which is EOM and EOQ3 and October trading begins on Thursday.

10/4/20; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/20; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/20; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/20; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is -30
9/25/20; 1:39 PM EST = +20; signal line is -31

Saturday, September 26, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the historic triple whipsaw on Thursday. The algo prints another 8 numbers on Friday capping off a wild week of printing 50 numbers. The bulls are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 51 points above the signal line. Despite this huge spread, the caution flag remains out. Watching the internal market parameters bouncing around like ping-pong balls and seeing the wild whipsaw flips in price action, and with the VIX only in the upper 20's and barely into the 30's (not yet extensively volatile), reinforces the notion that anything can happen going forward.

The utilities rally which is a big plus for the bulls. UTIL is at the 808 palindrome. Bulls need to tag the 828 palindrome next week to create more upside juice in the stock market. Bears need UTIL below 771 next week to create market mayhem. Banks, commodities and utes are in the bear camp so bulls need to see improvements in these sectors to send stocks higher. The beat goes on.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/25/20; 1:39 PM EST = +20; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 1:36 PM EST = +4; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 11:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -31
9/25/20; 11:07 AM EST = -26; signal line is -30
9/25/20; 10:45 AM EST = -10; signal line is -29
9/25/20; 10:41 AM EST = -26; signal line is -28
9/25/20; 9:39 AM EST = -42; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
9/25/20; 9:36 AM EST = -26; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains long
9/24/20; 3:52 PM EST = -10; signal line is -24; go long 3248; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.5%)

Friday, September 25, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long from SPX 3248 after one of the wildest days in the quant's history. A double whipsaw has occurred rarely with the algorithm but yesterday is a triple whipsaw that has never occurred. The model flipped long at munch time, then short in the afternoon then back to long before the session ended. Comically, S&P futures are down -26 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Friday session.

The imminent turn notation is in the title line because it is a wild mystery as to what will happen. Stock market parameters are bouncing around in all directions creating unprecedented price action. Copper is teetering on the bull-bear line in the sand and is down -0.6% in the futures so that will be a failure at the open creating negativity.

Bulls need stronger copper, retail stocks, commodities and lower volatility. Bears need weaker copper, utilities and chips. There ae a lot of moving parts currently. Watch the NYA 12306 bull-bear line in the sand. NYA is at 12366. The stock market is in big trouble if NYA 12306 fails. If stocks sell off, which appears to be on the agenda for the open, watch NYA 12306. If it fails, it's light's out. If the NYA holds the 12306 support, stocks will probably recover and rally.

The algo has logged five losing trades in a row for the actual trading which has never happened in Keybot's history. The losses are all nominal except for that first one. The quant has cycled through SPY, SH, DIA, DOG and currently in IWM (long, short, long, short, long, respectively). For the year, the S&P 500 which is the US stock market, is flat. The quant program is up about -21% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +39% in 2020 thus far. Keybot remains in the single 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw behavior in the price action. These choppy sawtooth markets chew up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot the Quant may whipsaw back to the short side today. The stock market is a coin-flip. Climb aboard the Crazy Train.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/24/20; 3:52 PM EST = -10; signal line is -24; go long 3248; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.5%)
9/24/20; 3:45 PM EST = -26; signal line is -23
9/24/20; 3:44 PM EST = -42; signal line is -21
9/24/20; 3:28 PM EST = -58; signal line is -19
9/24/20; 3:26 PM EST = -42; signal line is -17; go short 3233; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.4%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +38.8%)
9/24/20; 2:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
9/24/20; 1:06 PM EST = +6; signal line is -18
9/24/20; 12:13 PM EST = -10; signal line is -19; go long 3258; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +39.4%)
9/24/20; 11:51 AM EST = -26; signal line is -20
9/24/20; 11:29 AM EST = -42; signal line is -20
9/24/20; 10:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -20
9/24/20; 10:37 AM EST = -72; signal line is -19
9/24/20; 10:36 AM EST = -56; signal line is -18
9/24/20; 10:06 AM EST = -42; signal line is -17
9/24/20; 9:46 AM EST = -56; signal line is -14
9/24/20; 9:40 AM EST = -72; signal line is -11
9/23/20; 3:10 PM EST = -58; signal line is -7
9/23/20; 3:08 PM EST = -42; signal line is -5
9/23/20; 2:49 PM EST = -26; signal line is -3; go short 3254; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +39.6%)

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips bearish at SPX 3254 this afternoon. The whipsaw carnival continues. The bears are in charge with the algo number 51 points below the signal line. The stock market deteriorated in the afternoon as many parameters fell like dominoes one after another. Volatility pops so stocks drop, utilities failed ushering in negativity, then retail stocks collapsed, then the chips were down, literally and figuratively as the dirty SOX became soiled, and then the piece de resistance, as some would say the piece of resistance, copper failed. That carnage provides a -79 point down day on the S&P 500; a -2.4% bloodbath.

The utility failure is serious business. UTIL loses the 793 level and the algorithms started executing sell programs. UTIL ends the day at 785. Bulls must push UTIL back above 793 immediately, otherwise, the stock market will remain soggy. For next week, the 793 number is meaningless and replaced with 770.61. Thus, watch UTIL at 4 PM EST on Friday because that will give you a heads-up about next week. If UTIL finishes the week above 771, the bulls are hanging in there for next week. If UTIL ends this week below 771, there will be Hell to pay come Monday.

There are a lot of moving parts currently so it is difficult to sum things up into something simple for yinz to watch but keep an eye on NYA 12306-12307. It is for all the marbles. NYA price is at 12359; if 12306 fails, turn out the lights the party is over. Stocks will plummet into Hades. Bulls will hang in there going forward as long as they keep NYA above 12306.

On the last trade, that only lasted about 5 hours, another whipsaw, the algo program and actual trading both lose about a percent. For the year, the SPX is up not even one percent. The quant program is up about +22% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up about +40% in 2020 thus far. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH remaining in 1x ETF's to lessen risk in choppy whipsaw markets.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/23/20; 3:10 PM EST = -58; signal line is -7
9/23/20; 3:08 PM EST = -42; signal line is -5
9/23/20; 2:49 PM EST = -26; signal line is -3; go short 3254; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +22.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.7%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +39.6%)
9/23/20; 2:21 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains long
9/23/20; 1:58 PM EST = +6; signal line is 0
9/22/20; 1:18 PM EST = +20; signal line is +1
9/22/20; 12:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +1
9/22/20; 12:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +2
9/22/20; 11:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +2
9/22/20; 11:01 AM EST = -10; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
9/22/20; 10:46 AM EST = +6; signal line is +4
9/22/20; 10:22 AM EST = +34; signal line is +5
9/22/20; 10:21 AM EST = +20; signal line is +5
9/22/20; 9:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is +5
9/22/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +6
9/21/20; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +6; go long 3282; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +40.3%)

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The price insanity continues with the algo printing 10 numbers today. The quant is bouncing around like a pinball with the bulls in charge of stock market direction. The algo number is 19 points above the signal line. 

Bulls need strong commodities and need to push GTX above 1723 to send equities higher.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker utilities and chips; VIX above 27.48, UTIL below 793 and SOX below 2141, respectively. The quant likely needs to see 2 of these 3 turn bearish to flip short. UTIL tested 793 and bounced so there may be more drama there tomorrow. Stocks will be in trouble if UTIL 793 fails. Bears need VIX above 27.48 or they got nothing.

The imminent turn notation remains in the title line since the market can turn on a dime. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/22/20; 1:18 PM EST = +20; signal line is +1
9/22/20; 12:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +1
9/22/20; 12:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +2
9/22/20; 11:24 AM EST = +6; signal line is +2
9/22/20; 11:01 AM EST = -10; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
9/22/20; 10:46 AM EST = +6; signal line is +4
9/22/20; 10:22 AM EST = +34; signal line is +5
9/22/20; 10:21 AM EST = +20; signal line is +5
9/22/20; 9:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is +5
9/22/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +6
9/21/20; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +6; go long 3282; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +40.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long after a wild whipsaw day in the stock market. S&P futures were down big, -65 points or so, early Monday morning and the sogginess fed through the day. You knew some crazy stuff was afoot and it arrived in spades yesterday. Pandemonium. Keybot flipped short after the opening bell and that whipsawed back to the long side at the closing bell bookending the day. The stock market is a coin-toss with the algo number and signal line both sitting at +6.


There are many market parameters sitting at their bull-bear lines in the sand so the imminent turn notation remains in the title line and do not be surprised at another whipsaw back to the short side again. S&P futures are down -12 points with the VIX at 28.47 about 5-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Tuesday session on Wall Street.

Bulls need lower volatility and stronger commodities and banks. Bulls need VIX below 27.48 or they got nothing.

Bears need weaker utilities, chips and retail stocks. Bears need UTIL below 793 and SOX below 2140.80 to create stock market negativity.

On the 5-day trade, the quant program loses -5.1% and the actual trading loses -9.5%. It is interesting because if the price action was one-minute either way on 9/16/20, Keybot would not have flipped long. Every now and then the robot is snared in a bull or bear trap. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS. On yesterday's trade that lasted all of 6 hours or so, a whipsaw, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a percent. Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY dropping into the single 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw. The quant will trade the 1x ETF's for at least the next 30 days to lessen risk in these volatile markets. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +1.6%, basically flat. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +23.2% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up +40.3% in 2020 giving back about -10% over the last week.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/21/20; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +6; go long 3282; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +1.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +23.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +40.3%)
9/21/20; 3:28 PM EST = -26; signal line is +7
9/21/20; 1:59 PM EST = -42; signal line is +8
9/21/20; 1:17 PM EST = -26; signal line is +11
9/21/20; 1:03 PM EST = -42; signal line is +13
9/21/20; 12:07 PM EST = -26; signal line is +15
9/21/20; 11:23 AM EST = -42; signal line is +18
9/21/20; 10:47 AM EST = -26; signal line is +20
9/21/20; 10:18 AM EST = -42; signal line is +22
9/21/20; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is +23; go short 3255; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -5.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.1%)(Actual trading results this trade = -9.5%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +41.5%)
9/21/20; 3:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
9/18/20; 1:53 PM EST = +34; signal line is +23
9/18/20; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
9/18/20; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
9/18/20; 1:32 PM EST = +18; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
9/17/20; 3:15 PM EST = +34; signal line is +21
9/17/20; 3:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
9/17/20; 2:49 PM EST = +34; signal line is +20
9/17/20; 2:35 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:01 PM EST = +34; signal line is +20
9/17/20; 12:16 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 9:57 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
9/17/20; 4:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +17
9/17/20; 4:29 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
9/17/20; 3:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
9/16/20; 2:40 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19; go long 3429; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +29.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +8.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +51.0%)

Sunday, September 20, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls are in charge of the stock market direction despite last week's sogginess through the new moon. The algo number is 10 points above the signal line.

Bulls need UTIL above 793 during the week ahead to gain stock market strength. Price begins the week at 798 making for happy bulls. Utilities are the key for the bulls that need to see UTIL climb back above 8 hundo and remain elevated. This tells you that any near-term selloff will probably not be too bad and stocks will likely remain buoyant into year-end. Bulls would then need UTIL above 829 which will send the stock market back to record highs.

Bears need UTIL below 793 as soon as possible preferably out of the gate on Monday to create stock market negativity. Bears need higher volatility, VIX above 27.54, which will usher in strong downward selling pressure. VIX begins the week at 25.83. Bears likely need both UTIL and VIX to flip to the bear camp to flip Keybot to the short sideKeybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

9/27/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
9/18/20; 1:53 PM EST = +34; signal line is +23

Saturday, September 19, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as a bull trap is sprung on Wednesday and a bear trap on Friday. On 9/16/20, stocks were jammed higher with the party in full swing during the afternoon. Bulls jump aboard the stock market that is heading higher. Thwack. The bulls heads are delivered on a platter as the SPX drops from 3430 to 3332 on Thursday. On 9/18/20, the bears are emboldened salivating that the selloff has finally arrived and begin going short like madmen. Thwack. The bears heads are delivered on a platter after the SPX bottoms at 3292 on Friday and ends the day at 3319 (nonetheless, the SPX does finish down -1.1% on Friday).

The quant prints five numbers on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. Keybot was champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. Then, late day, stocks recover and the robot is back in the bull camp with the algo number 11 points above the signal line. In a rare oddity, which also occurred a couple weeks or so ago, the S&P 500 is down big say -30 to -50 points but the VIX is also down. That simply does not happen to that extreme extent and now twice in recent days. Something is happening here.

UTIL ends at 798. Bulls are happy since UTIL must be above 793 for the week ahead. This provides bulls an advantage come Monday morning. The bears need to push UTIL below 793 as soon as possible and lower over the next couple weeks to prove that a longer term stock market selloff is ahead.

9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/20; 1:53 PM EST = +34; signal line is +23
9/18/20; 1:50 PM EST = +20; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
9/18/20; 1:42 PM EST = +4; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
9/18/20; 1:32 PM EST = +18; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
9/17/20; 3:15 PM EST = +34; signal line is +21

Thursday, September 17, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the markets remain Crazy.  The quant rattles off 13 numbers today including the pre-scheduled number and remains long with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The imminent turn remains in play for a whipsaw back to the short side. Volatility was, well, volatile, today. The VIX jumps on the Crazy Train. All aboard.

Keybot is tracking VIX 27.56 as a key bull/bear line in the sand. If VIX moves above 27.56 (now at 26.46), and if the SPX falls below 3329, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The stock market is a coin-toss.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker utilities. Bears need UTIL under 793 for all of next week. Bulls will receive strength if they push UTIL above 827 tomorrow or above 793 any day next week.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow one-half hour after the opening bell on Wall Street.

9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =
9/17/20; 3:15 PM EST = +34; signal line is +21
9/17/20; 3:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
9/17/20; 2:49 PM EST = +34; signal line is +20
9/17/20; 2:35 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:01 PM EST = +34; signal line is +20
9/17/20; 12:16 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 9:57 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
9/17/20; 4:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +17
9/17/20; 4:29 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
9/17/20; 3:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
9/16/20; 2:40 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19; go long 3429; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +29.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +8.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +51.0%)

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the  long side this afternoon at SPX 3429. Fed Chairman Powell promises easy money forever. The algo wanted to flip long at the start of trading and commodities turn bullish providing more upside fuel. It was not until the afternoon, however, when all the internal parameters latched that the move ot the long side occurs. Humorously, the SPX then promptly fell on its sword collapsing into the closing bell.

Commodities, volatility and utilities are running the show. Bulls need UTIL above 827 to guarantee upside happiness for stocks. UTIL is at 815. For next week, the 827 does not matter but 793 does. Thus, the bears have to push utes lower over the next couple days below UTIL 793 to prove that they can send stocks lower next week.

Bears need VIX above 27.54 which will tell you loud and clear that the downside is occurring in equities. Bears also need weaker commodities; GTX below 1720.

On the last trade that ran for 2 weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +8%. For the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, SPX, is up +6.1%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +29% and the actual trading, generated by Keybot, is up a huge +51%. Let's see if the robot gives anything back during the final 3-1/2 months. Keybot exits QID and enters SSO.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell. As always, watch for a potential whipsaw. 

9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =
9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =
9/16/20; 2:40 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19; go long 3429; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +29.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +8.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +51.0%)
9/16/20; 10:07 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
9/15/20; 12:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
9/15/20; 10:09 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21
9/11/20; 3:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +23
9/11/20; 3:06 PM EST = +4; signal line is +24
9/11/20; 2:38 PM EST = +20; signal line is +26
9/11/20; 2:20 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27
9/11/20; 1:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is +29
9/11/20; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +31
9/11/20; 10:02 AM EST = +6; signal line is +33
9/11/20; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35
9/10/20; 1:45 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
9/10/20; 1:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +38
9/10/20; 10:51 AM EST = +6; signal line is +40
9/10/20; 10:43 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
9/10/20; 10:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +43
9/10/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +44
9/10/20; 9:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:38 AM EST = +22; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +46
9/8/20; 2:42 PM EST = -10; signal line is +47
9/8/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/3/20; 11:11 AM EST = +36; signal line is +52
9/3/20; 10:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +52; go short 3511; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +8.666%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +26.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +15.9%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.8%)