Saturday, May 28, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the holiday weekend. The bulls keep slapping the bears around. Bulls need higher copper to guarantee the path to new all-time highs for stocks while the bears need lower retail stocks. Next week can be set up once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57

Friday, May 27, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The pre-scheduled number prints a short time ago and the bulls remain in charge with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. The algo number is above +80 and, since Keybot is an oscillator at its heart, this level reflects an overbot condition.

The bulls will confirm more upside juice for stocks with strength in copper. Bulls need JJC above 24.63 and new all-time record stock market highs are likely. Bears need weaker retail stocks to stop the stock market rally by pushing RTH under 75.71. If copper remains in the bear camp and retail in the bull camp, stocks will stagger along sideways with a slight upward bias.

After today's trading, US markets will not reopen until Tuesday. Markets are closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The bulls are steering the bus. EOM is Tuesday.

5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/25/16; 10:02 AM EST = +79; signal line is +57

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long the market as the bulls slap the bears in the face for another day. Retail stocks turn bullish today and end the day exactly at the number called out by the Keybot algorithm ahead of time at RTH 75.70. This is astounding. Have you ever witnessed such a feat where predictions prove true down to the penny? Robots are smarter than humans.

The pivot from RTH 75.69-75.70 dictates the broad stock market direction for Thursday. The bulls need stronger retail stocks and copper to prove they can take the indexes to new all-time highs. Bears need RTH under 75.69 asap or they are in big trouble. If RTH remains above 75.69, the bulls are on easy street sending stocks higher. JJC above 24.58 will also help the bulls.

For the SPX starting at 2091, the bulls need to touch 2095 to accelerate price above 2100 in a heartbeat. The bears need to push under 2079 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2080-2094 is sideways action. The bulls are driving the bus. Watch RTH 75.69 to determine broad market direction.

5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST =
5/25/16; 10:02 AM EST = +79; signal line is +57
5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and has been idling along thus far this week without printing any numbers. The stock market rallies strongly but not enough to push retail stocks into bull territory. The market bulls need RTH above 75.70 (now at 75.45) to prove they can take the stock market higher. If the retail stocks do not cooperate, the upside in equities will stall and peter out. Higher copper will also help bulls.

Bears need to keep retail stocks and copper weak and at the same time push commodities lower and volatility higher. The US dollar will be important since its direction will send copper and commodities in the opposite direction.

For Wednesday with the SPX starting at 2076, the bulls need to touch the 2080 handle and bingo, the stock market will accelerate higher. The bears need to push under 2053 a formidable task so bears will focus on dealing with the parameters explained above. A move through 2054-2079 is sideways action. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. Watch RTH 75.70. The beat goes on.

5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST =
5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57

Sunday, May 22, 2016

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Showing Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns

Here are the turns thus far this year for the Keybot the Quant algorithm. The red line is where the algo went short and the green line is where Keybot goes long. The year was off to a wild start. As you will recall, Keybot flipped short on the very last trading day of 2015 during the last one minute of trading. That was interesting. The algo benefited from the losses in stocks early in the year. The choppy sideways activity, that chews up bulls and bears alike, continues. Last December was a mess; look at all that back and forth choppy slop that ultimately resolved to the down side. The bulls are in charge as the week of 5/23/16 begins.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long going into the new week of trading. The market bulls need RTH above 75.73 to prove they can rally the stock market higher so listen for news on retail stocks. The bears need to push either SOX under 650 and/or XLF under 22.80 to regain control of the stock market. If retail stocks remain bearish, and chips and banks bullish, then stocks will stagger sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2052, the bulls need to push above 2058 to accelerate the upside well into the 2060's. The bears need to push under 2042 to regain their downside mojo. A move through 2043-2057 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. The bulls have the ball; retail stocks will determine if they can run down the field. Watch copper as well since a boost in copper would signal that the bulls have further oomph.

5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST =
5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57
5/20/16; 9:52 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57; go long 2054; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2016 = +12.3%)

Saturday, May 21, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side after Friday's opening bell at SPX 2054. Semiconductors catapulted higher so you knew the fix was in for the bulls. The choppy sideways behavior continues. Next week will start out with retail stocks, financials and semiconductors key. As always, remain alert for a potential whipsaw move back to the short side early next week. Bulls will need higher retail stocks to send the stock market higher. Bears need weaker chips and financials.

On the last trade, the algorithm program is dead flat entering and exiting at SPX 2053-2054. For the actual trading dictated by the program, Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. The actual trading takes a -1% loss for the last trade. The SPX benchmark index is up one-half percent this year. Keybot's acrtual return remains robust thus far this year up +12% in 4-1/2 months. A look at next week's key parameters and levels can be determined after tomorrow's pre-scheduled Sunday print occurs.

5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/20/16; 9:52 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57; go long 2054; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2016 = +12.3%)
5/20/16; 9:36 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
5/19/16; 9:52 AM EST = +47; signal line is +57
5/19/16; 9:44 AM EST = +63; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains short
5/19/16; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +58
5/18/16; 3:59 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short
5/18/16; 3:18 PM EST = +47; signal line is +61
5/18/16; 3:07 PM EST = +63; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short
5/18/16; 2:32 PM EST = +47; signal line is +63
5/18/16; 10:16 AM EST = +63; signal line is +65
5/17/16; 9:49 AM EST = +47; signal line is +66
5/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +67
5/16/16; 1:03 PM EST = +63; signal line is +67
5/15/16; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +68
5/13/16; 10:00 AM EST = +47; signal line is +69
5/12/16; 3:02 PM EST = +44; signal line is +70
5/12/16; 2:52 PM EST = +60; signal line is +72
5/11/16; 2:49 PM EST = +44; signal line is +72
5/11/16; 12:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +73
5/11/16; 11:42 AM EST = +44; signal line is +74
5/8/16; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +74
5/6/16; 2:04 PM EST = +60; signal line is +74
5/6/16; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +73
5/6/16; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +73
5/4/16; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +72; go short 2053; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +6.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +13.2%)

Thursday, May 19, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Qaunt remains short as the market roller coaster ride continues. Semiconductors failed after the opening bell so you knew down was the direction for stocks. The algo prints three numbers today and the bears remain in control with the algo number 10 points under the signal line.

Friday is a fight between semi's and the financials/SPX. The bulls need SOX above 649.27 or they got nothing. The bears need XLF under 22.79 and/or SPX under 2025 to create market mayhem. If SOX remains bearish and XLF bullish, and the SPX above 2025, stocks will stagger sideways with an upward bias into the weekend. If SOX moves above 649.27 and the SPX moves above 2044, Keybot will likely flip long so consider an imminent turn in play if the chips rally.

For the SPX starting Friday at 2040, the bulls need to push 4 points higher, above 2044, and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2026 to accelerate the downside. The SPX 2025-2026 level takes on extreme importance for Friday; if this level fails, there will likely be serious market carnage ahead. The beat goes on.

5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/19/16; 9:52 AM EST = +47; signal line is +57
5/19/16; 9:44 AM EST = +63; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains short
5/19/16; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +58
5/18/16; 3:59 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the Wednesday drama. The algo prints five numbers yesterday and is champing at the bit to go long. The internal program requirements are not yet latching to allow the move. Keybot wants to go long right now and if the SPX touches the 2061 handle the algo will likely flip long. The main driver of stocks yesterday were the chips and financials. Banks took off to the upside creating support under the stock market.

Semiconductors are the main parameter controlling market direction right now. Keybot identifies the SOX 649.30 level as the key bull-bear line. Price is at 649.35 only pennies above in the bull camp which creates stock market buoyancy. It is always amazing to see markets move and end the day at a parameter and price level that Keybot identifies ahead of time. Robots are smarter than humans. The bears need SOX under 649.30 or they got nothing. This level will determine the direction of stocks Thursday morning.

For the SPX starting at 2048, the bulls need to push above 2061 to accelerate the upside while the bears need to push under 2035 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2036-2060 is sideways action for Thursday. The algorithm remains short but wants to go long. Watch SOX 649.30 and SPX 2061 to see who wins.

5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/18/16; 3:59 PM EST = +63; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short
5/18/16; 3:18 PM EST = +47; signal line is +61
5/18/16; 3:07 PM EST = +63; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short
5/18/16; 2:32 PM EST = +47; signal line is +63
5/18/16; 10:16 AM EST = +63; signal line is +65
5/17/16; 9:49 AM EST = +47; signal line is +66

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and prints a number to begin the day. Retail stocks weaken creating broad market weakness. Watch RTH 75.77 now at 75.53 in the bear camp; bulls got nothing unless they can push RTH above 75.77. Watch SOX 649 now at 645. Bulls got nothing unless they can push SOX above 649. The longer that price remains under these two targets the more likely that the stock market will roll over to the downside.

Watch the retail stocks and semi's; bulls need both if they want to begin a new rally higher for the stock market. Bears win if both remain bearish. The LOD for SPX thus far is 2056. The beat goes on.

5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/16; 9:49 AM EST = +47; signal line is +66
5/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +67