Monday, July 27, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears came to play to begin the week. The VIX jumps above 13.85 creating the selling pressure today. This warrants the caution flag. If the financials are weak on Tuesday, with the XLF dropping under 24.82 (now at 24.94) and the SPX under 2064, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls need to push volatility, the VIX, under 13.85 to stage a rally in stocks. Thus, bears win with XLF under 24.82 and bulls win if VIX drops under 13.85. If XLF remains bullish and VIX bearish, stocks will stumble sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2068, the bulls need to push above 2078 and an upside acceleration will occur. Bears need to push under 2064 to create a downside acceleration. The year began at 2059. July began at 2063. A move through 2065-2077 is sideways action for Tuesday. If the XLF loses 24.82, consider the 'imminent turn' notation to be in the title line.

7/28/15; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/15; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is -15
7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is -15

Sunday, July 26, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. Very simply, the market bears will growl and send stocks lower if VIX moves above 13.85. Bears got nothing and stocks will float higher if VIX remains under 13.85.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 2080, the bulls need to push above 2106 to accelerate the upside above 2110, a formidable task, so bulls will instead focus on keeping volatility low. The bears need to push under 2077 to accelerate the downside. Watch to see if the bears can muster up three negative points in the overnight S&P futures, or not. A move through 2078-2105 is sideways action to begin the week. The bulls remain comfortably in control with the algo number 23 points above the signal line. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning.

8/2/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/15; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/15; 10:00 AM EST =
7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is -15
7/24/15; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is -16

Saturday, July 25, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo prints two numbers on Friday afternoon as the market bears started to flex their muscles with higher volatility but it was bluster. VIX 13.85 remains key for Monday. Bears got nothing until they send the VIX above 13.85.

7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/24/15; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is -16
7/24/15; 1:21 PM EST = -6; signal line is -18
7/21/15; 11:05 AM EST = +8; signal line is -19

Friday, July 24, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Same dealio as yesterday. Bears need VIX above 13.82 if they want to growl. Bulls need NYA above 10937 if they want to send stocks higher. If volatility remains subdued and the NYA remains weak, stocks will stagger sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX for Friday beginning at 2102, the bulls need to  touch the 2117 handle to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2099 which will accelerate the downside to 2091 in very quick order. S&P futures are up +4 a couple hours before the opening bell. A move through 2100-2116 is sideways action. The bulls remain in control.

7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/21/15; 11:05 AM EST = +8; signal line is -19

Thursday, July 23, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers in the Wednesday session. Volatility did not move higher so the fix was in and the bears had nothing. The VIX stayed under 12.50 all day long so you knew stocks would not move substantively lower, and they didn't. Bears need higher volatility, the VIX above 13.80, while the bulls need a higher NYA Index, the NYA above 10937. This is the battle. If volatility remains bullish, and the NYA bearish, then stocks will float sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX for Thursday starting at 2114, the bulls need to touch the 2119 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate into the mid 2120's. The bears need to push under 2110 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2111-2118 is sideways action. The bulls remain in control.

7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/21/15; 11:05 AM EST = +8; signal line is -19
7/19/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is -20

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the Wednesday trade. The NYA drops below the 10937 level, identified by the algo, which stops the upside rally. Continue to watch NYA 10937 and also watch VIX 13.80. VIX is at 12.22 creating market bullishness. Bears will receive downside market juice if VIX moves above 13.80 and a caution signal will be warranted in the title line. Overall, the bulls remain comfortable with the algo number 27 points above the signal line.

For Wednesday with the SPX starting at 2119, the bulls need to move above the 2128 level to accelerate the upside to new all-time record highs. S&P futures, however, are -8, about three hours before the opening bell. The bears need to push under 2115 to accelerate the downside which appears on tap. The bears need higher volatility as explained above to make headway to the downside with stocks; a trend change lower for the stock market will then occur if either retail stocks and/or financial stocks weaken.

7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/21/15; 11:05 AM EST = +8; signal line is -19
7/19/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is -20

Sunday, July 19, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the new week of trading. The market is bifurcated with copper, commodities and semiconductors in the bear camp and most other sectors bullish creating upside lift in stocks. The upside equity rally will continue unless the bears can push VIX above 14 and/or NYA under 10918.

For the SPX starting the week at 2127, the bulls need to touch the 2129 handle and bingo, the stock market will accelerate higher and the SPX should print new all-time record highs above 2135. Thus, watch the overnight S&P futures to see if two points of upside are on tap. The bears need to push under 2120 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2121-2128 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Bulls are cruising with the algo number 42 points above the signal line.

7/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is -20
7/17/15; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -22

Friday, July 17, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls motor along without a care in the world. The two pre-scheduled numbers print this week and the algo number is 44 points above the signal line showing bulls in full control. Bears need VIX above 14 and/or NYA under 10918 (now at 10977) to stop the rally. Bulls will receive further upside fuel with stronger semiconductors.

7/19/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/15; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -22
7/17/15; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -23
7/13/15; 3:01 PM EST = +22; signal line is -25

Thursday, July 16, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Volatility ran higher yesterday but the VIX could not overcome the 14 level so the bears got nothing. Bears need either VIX above 14 and/or NYA under 10918 to stop the upside stock market rally. The bulls will receive upside juice from stronger semiconductors and the INTC positive earnings will boost the chip sector.

For the SPX starting at 2107, the bulls need to push above 2114 to accelerate higher above 2120 in a flash. The bears need to push under 2102 to accelerate the downside that will target the low 2090's in quick order. A move through 2103-2113 is sideways action. S&P futures are +7 four hours before the opening bell which would target the SPX 2114 resistance. The algo has not printed any numbers since Monday.

7/19/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/15; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/15; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/15; 3:01 PM EST = +22; signal line is -25

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and did not print any numbers in the Tuesday trade. For Wednesday simply watch volatility; VIX now in the bull camp at 13.37 under the important 14.02 level identified by the algo. Stocks will float higher as long as the VIX is under 14. Bears will create market selling pressure if VIX moves above 14.

For the SPX for Wednesday starting at 2109, the bulls need to touch the 2112 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 2120. The bears need to push under 2098 to accelerate the downside that will tag 2091 in quick order. The bulls are running the show. Bears need to push volatility higher.

7/19/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/15; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/15; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/15; 3:01 PM EST = +22; signal line is -25