Tuesday, September 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but note that the algo wants to flip long with the algo number and signal line on top of each other at +42. There is an internal latch that will not close under these conditions so the algo remains bearish. UTIL explodes higher well above the 550 danger line in place for all of this week bolstering the bull case. The bulls also send semiconductors higher with SOX above the critical 682.81 level back  in the bull camp creating the market upside. The bears are content since VIX remains above 12.39.

Despite the run higher, the algo will likely not flip long today. If the VIX falls under 12.39, however, the upside path is guaranteed and Keybot will likely flip long in a heartbeat. For now, the beat goes on.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/16/14; 9:52 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
9/15/14; 3:48 PM EST = +26; signal line is +43

Monday, September 15, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish after an active day for the algo. The semiconductors are dancing to and fro so SOX 632.81 will identify the winner on Tuesday. Note the algo number was within two points of the signal line after 2 PM. The best thing for the bulls is to jog the semiconductors higher in other words move SOX above and below 632.81 to move the algo number above the signal line and set the model up to move to the bullish side. The bulls also need VIX under 12.39 to receive more upside juice. The bears need to keep semi's bearish and also move UTIL under 550 to receive more downside juice.

For the SPX starting at 1984, the bulls need three points of upside, to move above 1987 and 1991 will come very fast. The bears need to push about 5 points lower, under 1978.50, to accelerate the downside to 1973 in quick order. A move through 1979-1986 is sideways action.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/15/14; 3:48 PM EST = +26; signal line is +43
9/15/14; 2:32 PM EST = +42; signal line is +44
9/15/14; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +45
9/15/14; 12:55 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls launch a quick comeback smashing the bear hopes for a sharp collapse. UTIL regains 550 and SOX is running strongly higher above 632.85 so equities recover. Watch these two parameters and VIX 12.37. If the VIX drops under 12.37 and SPX moves above 1997, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to weaken utes and semi's to send equities lower.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/15/14; 12:55 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47
9/15/14; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +48
9/15/14; 12:09 PM EST = +10; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with some intense market action occurring. Both utilities and semiconductors fail this morning so it is surprising to not see the broad indexes tumbling lower in earnest. As this message is typed UTIL is trying to regain the critical 550 level and SOX is trying to regain the critical 632.85 bull-bear line in the sand. Pay close attention to these two parameters as they control market direction. Volatility is higher with VIX above 14 creating sustainable market negativity. If the UTIL and SOX cannot print on the bull side in the minutes ahead, the markets will fall down the rabbit hole in a downside acceleration. The broad indexes will recover today if either UTIL moves above 550 or if SOX moves above 632.85. The bears are cruising. The market action will become very ugly unless the bulls push utes or socks higher.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/15/14; 12:09 PM EST = +10; signal line is +49
9/15/14; 11:23 AM EST = +26; signal line is +51
9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +52

Sunday, September 14, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to begin the new week of trading. As explained in the previous message, UTIL 550 is a key bull-bear line in the sand for all of this week. If UTIL remains under 550 (now at 549.64), equities leak lower. If UTIL moves above 550, equities move higher. VIX 12.36 is important. The broad indexes will remains weak as long as VIX stays above 12.36. The algo is next tracking semiconductors as a key market driver and identifying SOX 631.50 as a key bull-bear line in the sand. SOX is near 640 well above the danger line.

For the SPX starting at 1986, the bulls need to touch the 1997 handle to regain their mojo. This may prove difficult so instead bulls will focus on pushing utilities and semi's higher and volatility lower. The bears need to push the SPX under 1980 to accelerate the downside which will print at the 1973 support in quick order. A move through 1981-1996 is sideways action for Monday. The bears are driving the bus. Watch UTIL 550 in the opening minutes. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning.

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +52
9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53

Saturday, September 13, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. The bears ride the higher volatility into the weekend sending markets lower. The bulls maintain a bid in financials preventing a market collapse.

UTIL closes at 549.64 under the 550 level that the algorithm is targeting for all of next week and called out one week ago. Isn't it astounding how Keybot can identify these key numbers before they occur? Since UTIL closes under 550 it will begin the new week in bear territory (as dictated by the algorithm) creating market negativity and another leg lower for stocks. If UTIL recovers above 550 at the opening bell that will tell you that stocks will recover. Utilities and volatility are key on Monday and semi's are moving up in the algo's current hierarchy. The imminent turn notation is removed since UTIL is on the bear side come Monday morning but if utes bounce at the opening bell the imminent turn notation will return since the bulls will be pushing the SPX higher.

Other areas and levels of interest important for Monday can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53

Friday, September 12, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Friday session is underway and Keybot prints this weeks pre-scheduled number a short time ago. The bulls have the market on a silver platter but the bears show up to play pushing volatility higher and the SPX lower. Watch VIX 12.35 as the market rudder. Above and bears will be happy into the weekend. If the VIX drops under 12.35, the bulls will mount a huge upside rally and Keybot will likely flip long.

Financials are upbeat which keeps the bulls in the game. Semi's are weak helping bears. UTIL is 555 and remember the 550 is a critical bull-bear line for all of next week. If UTIL closes today under 550, the bears will be in great shape come Monday morning. The SPX is staggering sideways along the 1990-1991 support area.

9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53
9/8/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +53

Thursday, September 11, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short motoring along through the week without printing any numbers since Monday. VIX 12.35 remains the key market driver currently. VIX is above at 12.80 creating market negativity. Bulls need VIX under 12.35 and the upside orgy for equities will begin again. If the VIX drops under 12.35 and the SPX prints above 1998 and higher, Keybot will likely flip long so the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The bears need to send volatility higher immediately at the opening bell for Friday as well as send financials, semiconductor and retail stocks lower. The positivity or negativity in these three sectors will tell a lot about the path ahead.

For Friday with the SPX starting at 1997, the bulls need to touch the 1998 handle and bingo, a quick upside acceleration will occur sending price easily above 2000 to the 2002-2003 resistance. Therefore, watch the S&P futures overnight since any smidge of green will place the bulls in a festive party mood going into the weekend. The bears must push under 1986 to accelerate the downside a difficult task so the bears will instead focus on pushing volatility higher and financials, semi's and retail stocks lower. A move through 1987-1997 is sideways action. The bulls are in position to retake control; all they need is lower volatility to light the way. The bears need some bad news overnight to set a sour mood for Friday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM tomorrow.

9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +53

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short riding out the ongoing market drama without printing any numbers since Monday. Same-o story. Market direction is determined by the battle between financials and volatility. Today VIX runs higher to 14 and the bears were in clover, however, as the day played out VIX drops to 12.88 fueling the market recovery intraday. Financials are buoyant today which helped the bulls.

Bears need XLF under 22.93. Bulls need VIX below 12.35. One of the two will flinch. If the VIX turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 1997 and remains above, Keybot will likely flip long. For the SPX starting at 1996 on Thursday, the bulls only need one point to push above 1997 to mount an upside acceleration. The bears need to push under 1983 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1984-1996 is sideways action. The imminent turn status returns since the bulls only need some weaker volatility and a point or two higher in the SPX to begin a bull rally and potentially flip Keybot back to the long side. Interestingly, 1997 is the same level that the algo flipped short at last Thursday.

9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +53

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo idled along without printing any numbers but the fix was in for the bear side when copper collapsed. Copper took the pipe and is now firmly entrenched in the bear camp wanting to see lower equities going forward. The algo is now tracking volatility and financials as the key market movers and is also showing developing attention with utilities. Watch XLF 22.92 (now at 23.23 causing market upside) and VIX 12.34 (now at 12.91 causing market downside). Bears need XLF under 22.92 to create a firm flush lower for stocks. The bulls need VIX under 12.34 to stop the market selling and begin a recovery move. If VIX drops under 12.34 and the SPX moves above 2001, Keybot will likely flip long, easily doable in these erratic markets, but difficult, so the imminent turn notation is removed. If volatility drops, consider the imminent turn notation to be back in place since the bulls will be pushing equities higher.

For utilities, watch UTIL 545 for the remaining three days this week and starting 4 PM EST on Friday afternoon, watch UTIL 550 all through next week. UTIL drops to 557 today. Utilities are causing market bullishness but that changes if UTIL 545 fails this week, which is somewhat unlikely, but big trouble occurs for markets next week if UTIL 550 fails, so write this number down and monitor it all next week.

For the SPX starting at 1988 support on Wednesday, the bulls need to touch the 2001 handle to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1985 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1986-2000 is sideways action. Bulls need lower volatility to stop the bleeding. Bears need lower financials to create more selling.

9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST =
9/8/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +53