Friday, August 7, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the pre-scheduled number prints for this week. The bulls remain in charge with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The bulls have the market parameters pegged to the moon right now so it is hard to see how the bears can turn the tables.

The bulls continue to need UTIL above 835.50-ish to signal the all-clear and verify the stock market joy. Bears have hope as long as they do not allow UTIL to move above 835. The beat goes on.

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40
8/5/20; 9:37 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40; go long 3322; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -6.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.9%)

Thursday, August 6, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 3322. The chop suey continues. The bulls pumped commodities, banks and the NYA index higher so the fix was in for a bit more upside, perhaps into tomorrow morning's US Jobs Report. The price action is fascinating.

Did you watch the utes? UTIL pops to 835.73 where it receives another spank down from this critical level that the model identifies before it occurs. Despite the bullish euphoria right now, it is very troublesome that UTIL cannot get above the critical 835.50-ish bull-bear resistance. It is the final prize the bulls need to prove that they can catapult stocks even higher. Stocks have likely reached their peak if UTIL remains below 835 and trending lower. UTIL fell during the session,  after its tease with glory, and will begin the Thursday session at 825.37.

For bears to be happy about utilities signaling carnage ahead, UTIL has to drop below 795 by tomorrow, and for the next couple-three weeks, fall below, and trend below, the 760-765 area. Thus, that is a big 65-point retreat from current levels but in these markets anything can happen. If UTIL ventures lower, sub 800, and dropping, and loses that 750-770 area, the US stock market will be vulnerable to a major crash. If the stock market retreats in the near-term, but utilities remain flat or somewhat buoyant, and UTIL remains above 8 hundo, the market selloff will not be too drastic. Utilities can act as one of your navigational instruments going forward.

The stock market is blown-out to the upside; it is remarkable. Utilities are the only fly in the ointment. As explained above, bulls need UTIL above 835.50-ish for the SPX to print new all-time highs. If UTIL remains sub 835, the market chop probably continues until the jobs report tomorrow. Bears need utilities to fall like rocks which would usher in some equity softness but more importantly need weaker commodities, banks and NYA index: all three have catapulted into the sky over the last couple days. The market parameters are bullish with cushion, it is as if the stock market is on a permanent plateau right now, as Irving Fisher would say.

On the last trade, another chop, that only lasted four trading days, the algo program loses -3.1% and the actual trading dumps -6.0%. That is the most the actual trading lost probably in a couple years; the data would have to be searched. It is simply the nature of the markets, right now; chop suey. Keybot the Quant exits SDS and enters QLD remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. On the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index, which is the United States stock market, turns positive up about +3% after seven months of trials and tribulations. The algo program is up +21% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +27% on the year.

Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side although it wold likely occur more due to a negative news story hitting the wires rather than the technicals. Markets remain very erratic and unstable. Traders and investors likely want to wait for the jobs report tomorrow morning to assess the strength, or lack thereof, of the US economy.

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =
8/5/20; 9:37 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40; go long 3322; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -6.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.9%)
8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +53; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
7/31/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
7/31/20; 3:24 PM EST = +39; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
7/31/20; 11:37 AM EST = +23; signal line is +39
7/31/20; 10:12 AM EST = +39; signal line is +41
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
7/30/20; 2:42 PM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
7/30/20; 1:36 PM EST = +37; signal line is +43
7/30/20; 12:22 PM EST = +53; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
7/30/20; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +44
7/30/20; 11:05 AM EST = +23; signal line is +45
7/30/20; 10:59 AM EST = +39; signal line is +46
7/30/20; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is +47
7/30/20; 10:19 AM EST = +9; signal line is +47
7/30/20; 9:59 AM EST = +23; signal line is +49

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the wacko price action. The quant has not printed any numbers this week thus far. The stock market price behavior is extremely erratic at the opening and closing bells for the last three days. Keybot continues champing at the bit to go long since Friday but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. It is wild stuff.

If the SPX moves above 3317, call it the 3307-3317 range moving higher, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX begins at 3307. S&P futures are up +8 about 7 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for the hump day session so it is looking good for the bulls.

UTIL rallies yesterday popping up to 835.59. The quant told you ahead of time that this level is key. Isn't it amazing that the algorithm can identify not only the key sectors and parameters most greatly impacting stock market direction at any point in time, but also that it pinpoints the prices that the market seeks before they occur? If you are not impressed, you should be. Enjoy and support the information while it is made available.

UTIL price is spanked lower from the key bull-bear line in the sand at 835.50 so the bulls and bears keep slapping each other around as the stock market maintains an upward bias. If UTIL moves above 835.50 heading higher, stocks are going to take off wildly higher in a buying orgy so obscene that it would make Caligula blush.

Bears need to push utilities lower pronto. Bears need either GTX below 1697, NYA below 12433 or XLF below 23.65. If any one of the three turn bearish, the stock market will be rolling over to the downside. If these three parameters remain bullish, and UTIL cannot move above 835, status quo, stocks will chop sideways with a slight upward bias.

The US Monthly Jobs Report is Friday morning so traders are becoming more fixated on that release with each passing hour. So bulls need stronger utilities which will verify the upside party in the stock market and lead to more gains ahead. Bears need weaker utes, commodities, banks and NYA index if they want to growl.

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +53; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market gyrations and epic price action continues. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The bulls needed a slow and steady move higher for the SPX but instead another wild gap-up move occurs yesterday. The quant is tracking S&P 500 price with great interest and it appears that if the SPX moves above 3313, Keybot will likely flip long.

There are many moving parts nowadays creating this sideways choppiness chewing up both the bulls and bears. Commodities are receiving lots of love these days which creates buoyancy in the stock market. Banks are also hanging in there which supports equities. The deciding action remains with the utilities and NYA index. These two are the top dogs dictating the stock market direction ahead.

The bulls are on the verge of flipping the model long. The algo number is 14 points above the signal line which is bullish. As mentioned above, if the SPX moves above 3313, call it that 3303-3313 range, and steadily trends higher, Keybot will likely flip long. If UTIL moves above 835.30, the stock market will take off skyward like a rocket ship. Stronger utes will be confirmation that the bulls are running the show going forward on a near-term (hours, days and a few weeks) and intermediate-term (weeks and months) basis.

The bears must flex their muscles immediately or they will go down in a ball of flames. Bears need NYA below 12432 pronto. This is a lower bull-bear line in the sand, by a few points, as compared to yesterday, so the bears have their work cut out for them. NYA is at 12537 so a 105 point drop is a -0.8% retreat. S&P futures are down -11, or -0.3%, about 3 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for the Tuesday session. Nazzy futures are down -0.4%.

Bears also need weaker utilities. If you see utes rallying out of the gate today moving higher, the bears are likely cooked and the model will probably flip long today. If utes are drifting lower, and the NYA begins trending down towards the 12432, that is an extremely negative sign for the stock market in the near-term. If NYA loses 12432, the stock market will be in retreat. UTIL likely needs to drop below 795 to create a potential crash scenario for the US stock market. Weaker banks will also create market negativity. Bears need XLF below 23.64 which would immediately create significant selling pressure for equities.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls have it on a silver platter; all they need is about +8 to +18 points in the S&P 500 and they will likely flip the quant long. Bears will throw confetti if the NYA loses 12432. If NYA remains bullish, and the SPX cannot achieve the upside shown, status quo, stocks will chop sideways. The price action remains erratic and unstable and just plain odd.

8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +53; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
7/31/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, August 1, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short in this period of market insanity. The price action is erratic, unstable and all over the map. Machines are trading against machines. The bulls had it on a silver platter Friday morning but the one thing occurred which is not good for them; the gap-up open. That resulted in a flame-out and then the bears ruled the day, until the last 90 minutes when the Fed panicked as usual and stepped in to crush volatility's neck with its jackboots. The VIX collapses and stocks shoot to the moon into the closing bell.

Both the critical NYA index and the utilities failed Friday morning. No doubt Powell likely called an emergency internal meeting to address the situation; the Fed has smart technicians working for them. The NYA and UTIL not only signaled trouble for the Friday session but more importantly, trouble for the stock market into year-end. Utes were then goosed higher which reinforced the upside move into the bell. Comically, the NYA crosses above the critical 12452 bull-bear line in the sand during the last minute of trading. It's just another day in the corrupt and rigged crony capitalism system.

So the quant is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 15 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the final and high SPX print would have occurred a few minutes earlier, Keybot would likely be long right now.

Thus, the opening bell on Monday morning should be quite fascinating. Again, the bulls have it on a silver platter and only need a point higher in the SPX to likely flip the model long, however, a gap-up open is not helpful for bulls. Bears simply need NYA back below 12452 which would immediately end the bullish joy. SPX 3272 (for happy bulls) and NYA 12452 (for happy bears) are the only two things that matter come Monday morning. Commodities will also be in play during the session so watch the GTX 1691 bull-bear line in the sand.

July trading is in the bag (EOM) and August trading begins Monday. The price action is historic these days. The choppy whipsaw action continues chewing up bulls and bears alike.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
7/31/20; 3:24 PM EST = +39; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
7/31/20; 11:37 AM EST = +23; signal line is +39
7/31/20; 10:12 AM EST = +39; signal line is +41
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
7/30/20; 2:42 PM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

Thursday, July 30, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side but the algo is champing at the bit to go long. The bears are in charge but the algo number is 11 points above the signal line. The quant wants to flip long but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Markets are whipsawing this week. Keybot the Quant will likely flip long tomorrow if the SPX takes out the 3250-3254 area (the robot will probably want to see the SPX above 3254 during the first 15 minutes of trading and then above 3251 would be good enough for the bulls for the remainder of the day). The SPX begins Friday at 3247. The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it and the tech earnings appear positive thus far this evening to perhaps boost stocks tomorrow.

If a large gap-up opening occurs tomorrow morning, this is not good for bulls. It may trigger a timer that forces the algorithm to not flip long but instead wait about 90 minutes time for the market to settle. Ideally, the bulls need stocks to simply slowly float higher and higher tomorrow and that will probably flip Keybot long.

Bears need UTIL below 824, NYA below 12452, GTX below 1690 and/or XLF below 23.55. Bears must pull one of these parameters into their camp fast or they will be beaten silly by the bulls. If you are bearish, hang your hopes on UTIL 824 for tomorrow morning, if UTIL remains above, you lose, but if UTIL loses 824, and then trends lower all day moving towards 8 hundo, this will spell serious trouble for the stock market going forward.

At the opening bell tomorrow morning, the bulls need SPX to gradually move into and above the 3250-3254 area to flip Keybot the Quant to the long side and signal happy bullish times ahead. The bears need UTIL below 824 as soon as possible which will immediately create stock market sogginess. Watch these two parameters like a hawk since they will tell you the stock market direction forward. The pre-scheduled number prints one-half hour after the opening bell.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/30/20; 2:42 PM EST = +53; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
7/30/20; 1:36 PM EST = +37; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side as of this morning and the drama continues. The algo wanted to flip long a short time ago but the bears bring utilities back into their camp to stop the upside joy.

UTIL is at 823.70. Bulls win above 824. Bears win below 824. Over the last 45 minutes, GTX drops from 1710 to 1698 right now. NYA is at 12509. The cat and mouse game continues. The four big tech stocks, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN and FB, report earnings after the bell. 

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/30/20; 1:36 PM EST = +37; signal line is +43
7/30/20; 12:22 PM EST = +53; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
7/30/20; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +44

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a short time ago at SPX 3222. There is an ongoing battle between utes, the NYA index and commodities. All three failed during the first hour of trading but the NYA and commodities make a comeback. The bears are in charge with the algo number 7 points below the signal line, which 'taint much. Bears will have to press harder if they want to keep the ball.

Bulls need UTIL above 824 to signal the all-clear for upside joy ahead. Before tomorrow's (Friday's) close, bulls must keep UTIL above 795 and that will paint a stabilization picture for stocks for next week.

Bears need to drive UTIL below 795 by Friday's closing bell at 4 PM EST to prove that they will create carnage in the stock market next week. Bears need NYA below 12452 and/or GTX below 1689.30 to create more selling in the stock market. So right now, NYA and GTX are in the bull camp helping to guide markets higher intraday while UTIL is creating ongoing negativity.

The last trade ran for only 11 hours and the previous trade was only 13 hours. Markets are extremely erratic and unstable currently. Time will tell if the choppiness continues. Interestingly, if the turn would have occurred about a half hour sooner, Keybot would likely switch to single 1x non-leveraged ETF's but instead remains in the 2x ETF's. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. On the last trade, the algo program loses a half percent and the actual trading loses about a percent. The choppy action is slapping the quants around. For the year, the S&P 500 slips back into the red, negative on the year, albeit a hair. The Keybot the Quant algoirthm computer program is up +24% on the year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up +33% this year thus far.

Watch UTIL 824, NYA 12452, GTX 1689.30 and XLF 23.55. Nothing else matters. As usual, watch for a potential whipsaw back to the long side especially in these goofball markets. Bulls likely need to get the SPX positive on the day with UTIL above 824 to try and flip the model back to the long side. The Nasdaq is back to positive on the day.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/30/20; 11:08 AM EST = +37; signal line is +44
7/30/20; 11:05 AM EST = +23; signal line is +45
7/30/20; 10:59 AM EST = +39; signal line is +46
7/30/20; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is +47
7/30/20; 10:19 AM EST = +9; signal line is +47
7/30/20; 9:59 AM EST = +23; signal line is +49
7/30/20; 9:43 AM EST = +37; signal line is +50; go short 3222; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.3%)(Actual trading results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +32.9%)
7/28/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +49
7/28/20; 3:48 PM EST = +37; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
7/28/20; 12:45 PM EST = +53; signal line is +48
7/28/20; 12:35 PM EST = +37; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/28/20; 11:42 AM EST = +53; signal line is +47; go long 3242; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -3.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +34.1%)
7/28/20; 10:22 AM EST = +53; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
7/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +47
7/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +46
7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +46
7/24/20; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 12:39 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 12:08 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47; go short 3213; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +25.8%)(Actual trading results this trade = +10.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +37.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo quietly glides through the Wednesday session without printing any numbers. Fed Chairman Powell was tossing out $100 bills to his adoring fans yesterday and the stock market went wild. Pope Powell promises to print money forever to support the US stock market (and protect the wealthy class).

The SPX jumps higher to 3258 but interestingly, UTIL only makes it to 829 well short of the 835 plus the bulls need to signal guaranteed stock market joy and new record highs in the future. Bulls need UTIL above 835.50 to prove they will be the champion going forward.

Bears need weaker utes and to push UTIL below 823.98 as fast as possible. This will create stock market sogginess and end the upside rally. Bears also need NYA below 12455. NYA shot up to 12670 yesterday during the bull parade up +1.666% this week thus far.

Utilities and the NYA index dictate the stock market path ahead. If UTIL and NYA remain status quo, or if UTIL moves above 835, the bulls are on easy street going forward.

If UTIL loses 824, or if NYA loses 12455, either one will do, and if the SPX drops below 3228 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. So bears would need about a 30 point drop in the S&P 500 today to flip the tables on the bulls. S&P futures are -9.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning one-half hour after the market opens. Utes are key. If you are bullish, you want utilities steady or moving higher. If bearish, you want utes to collapse lower and preferably to see UTIL lose 824 which will usher in stock market weakness. The price action remains erratic and unstable.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +49

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side in the Tuesday session just before munch time at SPX 3242. The utilities jump into the bull camp providing lift to the stock indexes and the NYA index remains buoyant. The stock market is a coin-flip right now. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will bring the tablets down from on high today at 2 PM EST and tell global traders how to trade. Pope Powell's press conference will run from 2:30 PM EST to 3:30 PM EST so expect a lot of market gyrations this afternoon.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number only a paltry 4 points above the signal line; that's nothing. Note how the model is walking a tightrope when short it kept dipping a toe on the long side and now that it is long the quant was champing at the bit twice yesterday afternoon to flip back to the short side. Hence, stay on guard, there may be something epic ahead.

The stock market direction is currently dictated by the utilities, NYA index and you can sprinkle some banks on top. Bulls need UTIL above 835.50 (now at 825.47) and the stock market will be in its glory days printing new lofty price highs.

Bears need UTIL below 823.98 pronto (now at 825.47) to create stock market negativity. Bulls are happy as long as UTIL remains above 824 this week. Next week the key UTIL number will be 795 so the bears have their work cut out for them. If UTIL begins dropping, through 824, and trending lower towards 800 by the end of this week and then in the 700's next week, that spells serious trouble for the US stock market going into year end. If bulls keep UTIL above 824 this week into next week, even if they remain above 8 hundo beginning next week for a few weeks, they are fine and the prospects for stocks into year end will be rosier.

Bears need the NYA index to fall below 12453 (now at 12491) and all Hades will break loose in markets. If NYA gives up 12453, the stock market will probably begin falling like a rock. Weak banks will also help the bears; they need XLF below 23.58.

Thus, bulls win with status quo or UTIL above 835.50. Bears win with UTIL below 824 and/or NYA below 12453. This is all you need to know for today. If UTIL or NYA turn bearish, either one would do, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The market is a crap-shoot right now. Choose your poison.

The last trade ran for 13 trading hours but does not meet the whipsaw criteria for the robot so, for now, the quant remains in the 2x leveraged ETF's. The price action hints that there may be a sideways chop for a few days and that makes chop suey out of bulls and bears alike and especially those holding leveraged ETF's. The algo program loses a percent on the last trade and the actual trading dumps -3.3% bludgeoned by the enduring strength in tech stocks. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, turns positive by a hair. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +25% on the year and the actual trading generated by the robot is up over +34%. Keybot exits QID and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. If the turn would have occurred 2 or 3 hours sooner, then Keybot would probably be in a non-leveraged 1x ETF right now instead. Stay on guard, there may be crazy times ahead, as Patsy would croon.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/20; 3:59 PM EST = +53; signal line is +49
7/28/20; 3:48 PM EST = +37; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains long
7/28/20; 12:45 PM EST = +53; signal line is +48
7/28/20; 12:35 PM EST = +37; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/28/20; 11:42 AM EST = +53; signal line is +47; go long 3242; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +24.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = -3.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +34.1%)
7/28/20; 10:22 AM EST = +53; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
7/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +37; signal line is +47
7/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +46
7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +46
7/24/20; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 12:39 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 12:08 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47; go short 3213; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +25.8%)(Actual trading results this trade = +10.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +37.4%)

Monday, July 27, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. The SPX is up +0.5% to 3232. UTIL is down at 814. Bulls must push UTIL above 824 or they got nothing. NYA is 12527. Bears must push NYA below 12453 or they got nothing. Keybot is starting to track the banks. Watch XLF 23.55. Price is at 24.03. Stocks will be noticeably dropping if XLF loses 23.55.

It appears it is a battle between the utes and NYA index. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit. Bears are beating utes with a baseball bat and are now running after the NYA to do it harm. Bulls are hoisting the NYA on their shoulders to carry it away from danger while at the same time trying to pull utilities to higher ground. One of them will flinch. Watch the banks since their directional movement will impact stock market direction currently.

If UTIL moves above 824, and the SPX moves above 3237 heading higher, Keybot will likely flip long. Consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play if UTIL moves above 820 running towards 824. Bears are okay as long as they maintain weakness in utes and begin to drag the NYA and XLF lower. Stocks may be in a holding pattern until the Federal Reserve visits the mountaintop on Wednesday and brings the tablets down from on high telling global traders how to trade.

7/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +46
7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +46

Sunday, July 26, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 20 points below the signal line. The historic market action continues. Bulls need stronger utilities and NYA index while bears need weaker utes and commodities.

The bull-bear lines in the sand for this week for utilities are UTIL 823.98, call it 824, and 835.53. UTIL begins the week at 825.74, call it 826. The bulls will be immediately helped at the opening bell Monday morning with UTIL above 824, that is if it remains that way. If futures are lower overnight, utes may instead drop at the open. Bulls need to drive UTIL higher up through 835.53 which will stop the stock market selling and stabilize equities. The bulls need NYA above 12470 (NYA begins only 8 points in the bear camp at 12462) which will immediately stabilize the stock market and clearly signal that stocks are headed higher again.

If the bulls can push UTIL above 835.53 and NYA above 12470, both are likely needed, Keybot may whipsaw back to the long side. If one of the two turns bullish consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for the quant.

The bears need to push UTIL below 824 out of the gate which will create stock market negativity. Bears must keep NYA bearish below 12470. Every hour that NYA remains bearish is another nail in the bull coffin. At the same time, bears need weaker commodities and to push GTX below 1688 (now at 1724).

The main Monday morning battleground is the utilities and NYA index. These two parameters tell you everything about stock market direction to begin the week. Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Friday is EOM and August trading begins Monday, 8/3/20. Stay alert. The stock market is in a precarious position right now and few realize it.

8/2/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/31/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +46
7/24/20; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47

Saturday, July 25, 2020

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at munch time yesterday (Friday, 7/24/20) at SPX 3213. There has been lots of drama and erratic price action but the bears are making a move. The bulls are shocked. Will they power lower next week or stumble and fall on their face? The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 21 points below the signal line.

Friday was a nutso day. Stocks were weak out of the gate but utilities ran strongly higher. As the morning continued, the utes crumbled and the important NYA index fell down the steps, triggering Keybot to flip short. The utilities and the NYA index are the only two market parameters that stand in the way of the bull's plans to keep the equity party alive.

UTIL fell below both the 828 and 835-ish levels creating stock market negativity. However, the 828 palindrome is now a worthless number and is replaced with 824. UTIL is at 826 so those pesky bulls are not going gentle into the night; they plan to battle on Monday morning. If UTIL remains at 826, above the important 824 number for all of next week, the bulls will stabilize the stock market. If UTIL drops below 824, especially at the opening bell, the stock market is in big trouble.

The stock market drama will continue on Monday only this time the bears are in charge. On the last trade that ran for over 3 weeks, the algo program gains +5% and the actual trading gains over +10%. On the year, the S&P 500 benchmark US stock market index is down -0.6%, call it flat for 2020 thus far, while the actual trading generated by the Keybot the Quant algorithm is up over +37%. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID. The quant remains in the 2x leveraged ETF's and QID is a short play on the Nasdaq/tech arena.

As always, watch for a whipsaw, but the bulls likely need either UTIL above 835-ish, or, UTIL above 824 with NYA above 12470 to coax the algorithm to flip back to the bull side. Will Monday be a Black Monday?

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/24/20; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 12:39 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 12:08 PM EST = +26; signal line is +47; go short 3213; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -0.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.0%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +25.8%)(Actual trading results this trade = +10.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +37.4%)
7/24/20; 11:46 AM EST = +40; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains long
7/24/20; 10:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +47
7/24/20; 9:42 AM EST = +72; signal line is +46
7/23/20; 1:48 PM EST = +56; signal line is +44
7/23/20; 1:36 PM EST = +72; signal line is +43
7/23/20; 1:25 PM EST = +56; signal line is +41
7/23/20; 1:11 PM EST = +72; signal line is +39
7/23/20; 12:49 PM EST = +56; signal line is +38
7/23/20; 12:27 PM EST = +72; signal line is +37
7/23/20; 12:02 PM EST = +56; signal line is +36
7/23/20; 11:43 AM EST = +72; signal line is +34
7/22/20; 12:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +32
7/22/20; 12:35 PM EST = +40; signal line is +31
7/22/20; 12:06 PM EST = +56; signal line is +30
7/21/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +28
7/20/20; 10:18 AM EST = +26; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
7/20/20; 10:03 AM EST = +12; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
7/20/20; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
7/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +25
7/17/20; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +23
7/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +22
7/14/20; 9:44 AM EST = +42; signal line is +20
7/14/20; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +18
7/12/20; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +17
7/10/20; 12:55 PM EST = +42; signal line is +16
7/8/20; 10:14 AM EST = +26; signal line is +14
7/8/20; 10:07 AM EST = +42; signal line is +13
7/7/20; 9:37 AM EST = +26; signal line is +12
7/6/20; 9:36 AM EST = +42; signal line is +11
7/5/20; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +9
7/2/20; 1:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +8
7/2/20; 12:42 PM EST = +12; signal line is +7
7/2/20; 11:58 AM EST = +26; signal line is +7
7/2/20; 10:51 AM EST = +12; signal line is +7
7/2/20; 10:28 AM EST = +28; signal line is +8
7/2/20; 9:38 AM EST = +42; signal line is +8
7/2/20; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +6
7/2/20; 9:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +6
7/1/20; 10:41 AM EST = +12; signal line is +5
7/1/20; 9:40 AM EST = +28; signal line is +5
6/30/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +12; signal line is +4
6/30/20; 10:00 AM EST = +12; signal line is +3
6/30/20; 9:37 AM EST = +7; signal line is +1; go long 3059; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = -5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +20.8%)(Actual trading results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +27.1%)

Friday, July 24, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the bulls in charge with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. Keybot was active yesterday printing 8 numbers. The action is in the utilities and it was a bigtime battle at UTIL 835.57 as the quant told you ahead of time. UTIL price remains in the same place as yesterday above 827.83 creating bullishness for equities while also below 835.57 creating negativity in stocks. One side or the other will win.

Bulls need UTIL above 835.57 and the skies will open up to receive the stock market floating higher and higher.

Bears need UTIL below 827.83 to create broad stock market selling activity and to position the quant to go short. The stakes are higher than that. Bears must end today at UTIL 824 or lower to prove that stocks will be weak next week. Bears will also benefit from NYA dropping below 12470 and/or GTX below 1690. If any one of these three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below the 3223 palindrome, the algo will likely flip short. Watch NYA closely since a drop back below 12470 will signal serious negativity for the stock market into year-end. Ditto if the utilities keep trending lower.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. S&P futures are down -20 with the VIX at 27.80. The SPX begins the trading day at 3236 so a -20 point drop would place the S&P 500 at 3216 satisfying part of the above criteria for the robot to flip short. It looks like it all depends on UTIL 827.83 and/or NYA 12470.

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/23/20; 1:48 PM EST = +56; signal line is +44
7/23/20; 1:36 PM EST = +72; signal line is +43
7/23/20; 1:25 PM EST = +56; signal line is +41
7/23/20; 1:11 PM EST = +72; signal line is +39
7/23/20; 12:49 PM EST = +56; signal line is +38
7/23/20; 12:27 PM EST = +72; signal line is +37
7/23/20; 12:02 PM EST = +56; signal line is +36
7/23/20; 11:43 AM EST = +72; signal line is +34
7/22/20; 12:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +32

Thursday, July 23, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market remains elevated on the euphoric bullishness. The bulls remain in charge with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. Even though this is a substantive spread, the imminent turn notation remains in play since there are likely three potential scenarios ahead.

The bulls pump stocks higher after the utilities turn partially bullish. UTIL is at 830 which creates stock market bullishness above 827.83 this week but is also below 835.57 which creates market bearishness. Utes will make a decision today and the broad market will likely follow. UTIL prints above 833 yesterday for the HOD so the bulls are itching to prove it to the world that the upside rally has more legs.

The bears need weaker utes and to push UTIL below 827.83 pronto. Next week, this bull-bear line in the sand drops to 824 so the bears only have two days to drive UTIL from 830 down below 824. If UTIL finishes the week above 824, the bulls are in okay shape for next week. If UTIL drops below 824 trending lower over the next couple days, that is an extremely negative signal for the stock market.

Bears also need NYA below 12472 and/or GTX below 1690. Something's gotta give since the bulls and bears have each stretched their games to the limit. One of them is going to crack at any time.

So the three scenarios are as follows. First, UTIL overtakes 835.57 which verifies that the bulls will maintain an elevated stock market that will remain buoyant through the end of the year. Second, UTIL fails at 827.83 ushering in negativity, however, bears will also need either NYA or GTX to also join the bear camp, and the SPX to drop below 3253, for Keybot to likely flip short. This sounds like a lot but if things turn south it could happen quickly. The third scenario would be UTIL, NYA and GTX all reversing into the bear camp which may cause the robot to immediately flip short.

The bulls are happy in the early going. European indexes will begin trading in a few minutes ditto the VIX. S&P futures are up +13 ramping higher over the last half hour. The stage is set the die is cast. Bulls need stronger utilities for a walk away victory in the stock market going forward. Bears need weaker utilities, NYA index and commodities.

The stronger euro, popping to 1.15 then 1.16, after the ECB meeting, tanks the US dollar (they move inversely since each basket contains about two-thirds of each other's currency) which pumps commodities, stocks, gold, silver and emerging markets higher. The promises of more government stimulus, and of course Fed and other central bank easy money, and the hype around vaccine development for the coronavirus (COVID-19) contribute to the euphoric highs in equities. S&P futures are now +17 receiving a pump into the European open.

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/22/20; 12:54 PM EST = +56; signal line is +32
7/22/20; 12:35 PM EST = +40; signal line is +31
7/22/20; 12:06 PM EST = +56; signal line is +30
7/21/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +28

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears threaten to take equities lower but the bulls regain stock market control with the algo number 12 points above the signal line. The bulls pumped the NYA index higher to win the day. Ditto commodities. Utilities, however, remain weak so the battle continues.

Bulls need stronger utilities to ride the path to stock market victory and new record highs. It is the only major sector that is not yet providing bull energy to the broad stock market. Bulls need UTIL above 827.83 and also above 835.39 to pave the way to stock market glory. UTIL begins the hump day session at 820. Each day that UTIL remains below the 828 palindrome is another day where negativity is building within the stock market.

Bears need NYA back below 12469 pronto. NYA begins at 12509. This price behavior is key for the broad stock market. As the NYA goes, so goes the stock market. Bears also need GTX below 1688 (now at 1730). The spurt higher in stocks, commodities, gold and silver the last few days is due to the dollar dropping. The euro pops above 1.15 after the ECB drama late last week.

Bulls need to keep the NYA above 12469 and moving higher while pumping utilities. Bears need to keep utilities weak and trending lower while pulling the NYA back below 12469 and/or GTX below 1688. If NYA or GTX turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 3248, trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins at 3257 so bears would need at least a 9 point drop in the S&P 500. S&P futures are up +5 and the VIX is at 24.60 six hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session. The beat goes on.

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/21/20; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +28
7/20/20; 10:18 AM EST = +26; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is a point below the signal line wanting the model to flip short but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 3215, Keybot will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The S&P 500 begins the Tuesday session at 3252 so the bears have their work cut out for them needing a 37 point drop. The bulls throw up another barrier pumping the S&P futures up +19 about 7 hours before the opening bell for the regular US trading session. Nonetheless, it is on a silver platter for the bears if they want it.

Bulls must immediately push the NYA index above 12468 and/or UTIL above 827.83. Since the quant is in position to flips short, it likely will at any time any day ahead, unless the bulls immediately push one of these two parameters into the bull camp. If NYA or UTIL do not turn bullish, than the bulls are in big trouble and stocks will likely begin selling off.

Bears are in good shape now focused on driving the SPX price lower so they can seal the deal. Bears must keep the NYA and UTIL weak. Bears will benefit from weaker commodities and need GTX below 1686 which will send the stock market lower.

Note the failure in utes yesterday. This is uber important. The two key bull-bear lines in the sand for this week are 827.83 and 835.35. UTIL is at 817 in the bear camp. This behavior will create sustainable weakness in the stock market, if it continues. Next week, UTIL must remain below 823.98, call it 824, to keep the bear party alive. Thus, check to see how UTIL ends the week since above 824 signals that the bulls will fight back next week while a close this week below 824 signals trouble next week for equities.

The quant wants to flip short but needs the SPX below 3215. Bulls need a stronger NYA index and stronger utilities to save the day. Bears will growl loudly if commodities weaken.

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/20; 10:18 AM EST = +26; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
7/20/20; 10:03 AM EST = +12; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
7/20/20; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
7/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +25

Sunday, July 19, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market tension increases. This week should provide resolution on market direction one way or the other. The bulls remain in charge with the algo number 17 points above the signal line.

Bulls need stronger utilities and NYA index to push the stock market higher while bears need weaker utes, commodities and banks.

Bulls need UTIL above 835.15 and/or NYA above 12482. Either parameter flipping bullish will send the stock market strongly higher and if both jump into the bull camp, stocks will be flying higher and not looking back.

Bears need UTIL below 827.83 pronto which is a negative market signal. Bears would then gather downside strength with GTX falling below 1685 and/or XLF under 23.35. If 2 of the 3 parameters flip bearish, and the SPX drops below 3206 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short. If only 1 of the 3 parameters flip short, which would likely be the utilities with UTIL losing 827.83, that on its own may not be enough to flip the model short. Watch for a jog move by the utilities where UTIL price falls below the 828 palindrome, then back above for a little while, then slips back below, etc.. If you see this price behavior occurring back and forth across 827.83, Keybot is likely preparing itself to flip short. If UTIL falls below 828, and then jogs back above, and then below again, and the SPX drops below 3206 trending lower, Keybot may flip short.

Monday and the week ahead may be one for the record books; make sure your computer chair is equipped with a harness and helmet. The new moon peaks Monday after lunchtime US East Coast time; the darkest time of the month. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

Watch utilities and the NYA index out of the gate on Monday since they will immediately tell you the broad stock market direction ahead. The SPX begins the week at 3225 only six points negative on the year, call it flat, that started at 3231.

7/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/20; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +25
7/17/20; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +23

Saturday, July 18, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. UTIL comes up to the 828 palindrome as the quant told you before it happened. What an amazing robot. Consider yourselves lucky to view its real-time performance; for as long as it is made available.

UTIL 827.83, UTIL 835.48 and NYA 12482 will dictate the market story on Monday. UTIL begins at 828.60 which creates market bullishness above 827.83 but market sogginess remains with it below 835.48. Utes will likely pick a direction on Monday morning. Same dealio with the NYA index. It will pivot higher or lower on Monday and the broad stock market will go in the same direction.


Stocks are obviously at a major pivot right now. Will next week smell like beautiful roses as utilities and the NYA index skyrocket higher sending the broad stock market into the stratosphere, or, will the smell of napalm fill the air with the major indexes and utilities collapsing lower? The one-month plus of rampant complacency and market fearlessness hints that napalm may win but Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's. Time will tell. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 19 points above the signal line. Next week may be historic for the stock market.


7/19/20; 7:00 PM EST =

7/17/20; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +23
7/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +22
7/14/20; 9:44 AM EST = +42; signal line is +20

Friday, July 17, 2020

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. Banks rally and volatility drops so the bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out as stocks remain strong.

There are only two major parameters that are bearish currently; the NYA index and utilities. Bulls need the NYA above 12482 (now at 12350) which would be a bigtime bullish signal. Equities will run strongly higher if it happens so watch it closely. If NYA stalls here, it will be time for the bears to fight back.

Utilities are key. As previously explained, the key bull-bear lines in the sand, there are two of them, for all of next week are 827.83 and 835.15. Memorize these numbers since they will dictate whether the stock market marches sideways to sideways higher into the end of the year, or, if equities will fail and fall apart into EOY. UTIL begins Friday morning trading at 809.52. This is major drama.

If UTIL ends the day and week at 4 PM EST above 827.83, the bulls are in clover to begin next week and equities should remain buoyant and floating higher. If UTIL closes today above 835.15, equities will remain elevated through the end of the year; the bulls will be joyous going forward.

If UTIL closes below 827.83 today, the stock market will be in trouble out of the gate come Monday morning. If UTIL finishes negative on the day today, take that as a very negative signal for the stock market going forward. If UTIL ends the day sub 800, the stock market will be in major trouble next week. Thus, check the number at 4 PM EST and see which scenario it falls into.

Bears cannot get any downside traction due to the constant happy talk by the crony capitalism handlers. The vaccine news created a pump this week, Madame Lagarde was pumping yesterday, other central banks chime in saying they will keep pumping and to make sure stocks can stay buoyant into the weekend, President Trump promises a payroll tax cut overnight so he is pumping all evening long. S&P futures are +9 with the VIX at 28.00 about six hours before the opening bell on Wall Street.

Bears must prevent that NYA 12482 from occurring with all their might, if not, they are toast. Bears must also stab utilities lower from here forward which would be a sign of not only short term trouble but equity selling into EOY. Bears will benefit with weaker commodities. Bears need GTX below 1679 (now at 1706) to create stock market sogginess.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell and another one after. The quant has been quiet this week only printing two numbers thus far. Perhaps Friday will bring fireworks?

The bottom line is that the bulls will catapult stocks into the stratosphere if they can attain NYA 12482 or the UTIL 828 palindrome. Bears win if GTX loses 1679. The bears likely need both GTX to fail and XLF to fail below 23.35 to place the quant in position to go short so that may depend on bank earnings today and if traders begin selling the news, or not. Watch the utilities. It cannot be overstated how important the UTIL 828 line in the sand is today.

7/19/20; 7:00 PM EST =
7/17/20; 10:00 AM EST =
7/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =
7/14/20; 9:44 AM EST = +42; signal line is +20