Tuesday, January 17, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keyboth the Quant remains long as the algo prints 8 numbers to begin the week. The bulls remain in control. Keybot is pegged at the ceiling at an epic maxed-out +100 number. This is important since when the algo moves away from +100 it may be years before it returns.

The market bears need UTIL under 663.25 (this is a battle ground to begin the week) and/or XLF under 22.73 to create downside damage in stocks. If both parameters turn bearish, and the SPX trades below 2263, Keybot will likely flip short. The caution flag is in the title line and if one parameter turns bearish consider the imminent turn to be in play.

For Wednesday with the SPX starting at 2268, the bulls need to push above 2272 to accelerate the upside which will target 2280 in a flash. The bears need to push under 2263 to accelerate the downside which will be quickly in the 2250's. A move through 2264-2271 is sideways action for hump day.

1/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
1/17/17; 3:38 PM EST = +100; signal line is +73
1/17/17; 3:08 PM EST = +84; signal line is +72
1/17/17; 2:33 PM EST = +100; signal line is +71
1/17/17; 2:22 PM EST = +84; signal line is +69
1/17/17; 12:49 PM EST = +100; signal line is +69
1/17/17; 12:40 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68
1/17/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to begin the holiday-shortened trading week. Utilities jump higher as the Treasury yields drop lower. The algo prints two numbers to begin the week. Sound the seven trumpets! The algorithm tags the +100 level the highest number possible for the model! This is interesting since it occurs in a down tape. Stocks are well off their initial lows. The bulls are in control.

Market bears need UTIL under 663.25 or they got nothing. UTIL has come down to test this level four times over the last one-half hour and the bulls keep pumping utes higher. Weak financials will also help bears. XLF would need to drop below 22.75 (now at 23.15) to create broad stock market selling. Retail stocks rally strongly which prohibits the broad stock market from falling to any great extent.

1/22/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
1/17/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68
1/17/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +66
1/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65

Sunday, January 15, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the three-day holiday weekend. US markets are closed on Monday for the Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day.

Last week, Keybot idled along only printing four numbers including the Friday pre-scheduled number; the algo was unresponsive to the non-stop daily drama. Utilities sank last week but not enough to take UTIL under 643.46 a critical number for all of the new week ahead. This helps the bulls and will create buoyancy in the stock market. Bears need to push UTIL under 643.46 (now at 657). If UTIL moves higher above 662.50, the stock market will be rallying higher.

The bears need weaker utilities and retail stocks. Bears need RTH under 76.58 (now at 77.17) to create strong selling action in the stock market. The algorithm likely needs both UTIL to fail through 643.46 and RTH to fail under 76.58 to flip the algo short. Weakness in copper and commodities will also help the market bears.

For the SPX starting at 2275 on Tuesday, the bulls need to touch the 2279 handle and the upside will accelerate quickly well into the 2280's. The bears need to push below 2272 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2273-2278 is sideways action. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number in the new week ahead on Thursday morning.

1/22/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
1/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65
1/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +65
1/11/17; 2:31 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66

Thursday, January 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and has not printed any numbers as yet in the Thursday session. The algo came close to flipping short on Wednesday afternoon but all of the internal parameters would not latch. The bulls remain in control with the algo number only 2 points above the signal line. Keep flipping that coin as the bulls and bears battle.

Bulls need UTIL above 662.50 to prove they have the beans to take stocks higher. Bears need RTH under 76.56 to prove they have the juice to take stocks lower. Bulls cheer for higher utilities while bears root for lower retail stocks. The UTIL failing at 662.50 the other day is very important and spells big trouble for stocks in the weeks and months ahead as long as it stays under this level.

If RTH drops under 76.56, and the SPX drops under 2254, Keybot will likely flip short. The beat goes on.

1/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
1/11/17; 2:31 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66
1/11/17; 12:07 PM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
1/9/17; 9:41 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo idled along in the Tuesday session without printing any numbers. The fight for Wednesday involves utes, retail stocks and commodities. The bulls need UTIL above 663 to take stocks higher. The bears need RTH under 76.56 and/or GTX under 2324 to confirm downside action for the stock market. If RTH or GTX turns bearish, either one would do, and the SPX falls under 2265, Keybot will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn is listed in the title line. Bulls need higher utilities while bears need lower retail stocks and commodities.

For the SPX starting at 2269, the bulls need to push above 2279 to accelerate the upside. Bears need SPX under 2265 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2266-2278 is sideways action. If UTIL remains bearish, and RTH and GTX bullish, stocks will float along sideways with a slight upward bias.

1/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
1/9/17; 9:41 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints one number in the Monday trade. UTIL failed the 661.56 level so the bears painted a red tape. The bulls remain in control but the algo number is only 1 measly point above the signal line. In other words, flip a coin for the markets. Bulls and bears are fighting it out and the pricing action is erratic and unstable.

Bulls need UTIL above 661.56 to signal upside fun ahead and Dow 20K. The bears need either RTH under 76.48, JJC under 28.57 and/or GTX under 2325 (retail stocks, copper and commodity stocks, respectively). Copper is trading higher overnight. If RTH drops under 76.48, and the SPX is trading under 2269 and dropping, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

Bulls win with UTIL above 661.56. Bears win with RTH under 76.48. If utes remain bearish and retail stocks remain bullish, the stock market will stagger along sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2269 on Tuesday, the bears need any smidge of red in the futures and the downside will accelerate several handles. S&P futures are printing a hair to the red side five hours before the opening bell. The bulls need to push above 2275 to regain their mojo. A move through 2270-2274 is sideways action for Tuesday but since it is such a tight range a winner and loser will be chosen. UTIL 661.56 and RTH 76.48 are key.

1/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
1/9/17; 9:41 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67
1/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68

Sunday, January 8, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant begins the first full week of trading in 2017 on the long side. Utilities and retail stocks are dictating the broad stock market direction currently. Bulls need UTIL above 661.56 and the Dow is on its way to 20K. If UTIL moves above 668.13, stocks will explode higher in a buying frenzy.

Bears need to push UTIL under 661.56 and stocks will begin selling off. Bears need RTH under 76.48, however, if they want to do serious downside damage. Keybot likely wants to see both UTIL under 661.56 and RTH 76.48 to flip back to the short side.

If UTIL continues to jog above and below the 661.56 level as the Monday session proceeds, that may hint that the bears are setting things up to flip the model short in the near future. If UTIL runs above 661.56 and is moving higher to 663, 665, and so forth, the bulls will be celebrating Dow 20K and the talk will increase about SPX 2300. It is extremely important for the market bears to keep UTIL under 661.56 and moving lower; the pivot up or down of this key parameter will influence stock market direction for weeks and months ahead.

For the SPX starting at 2277, the bulls need to push above 2282, five points higher, and a strong upside acceleration will occur towards 2290. The bears need to push below 2264, about 13 points lower, to accelerate the downside which will seek the 2250's quickly. A move through 2265-2281 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning, Friday the 13th. Watch UTIL 661.56 after Monday's opening bell.

1/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
1/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68
1/6/17; 2:14 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68

Saturday, January 7, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at lunchtime in the Friday session at SPX 2280. Stock market direction is currently most greatly influenced by utilities and retail stocks. The algo has been calling out UTIL 661.56 the last few days and amazingly, the week ends with UTIL exactly  on this number to the penny. That is astonishing that the robot can call these key areas and their prices out before they happen. Obviously, the pivot of UTIL from 661.56 on Monday morning is hugely important. Not only from a short term perspective but for the intermediate term (weeks and months).

The areas most greatly impacting broad stock market direction and their values can be identified tomorrow after the Sunday print. Markets are very erratic and unstable. Call them a coin-flip. Keybot may whipsaw on Monday back to the bear side, however, it will likely take weakness in both the utilities and the retail stocks.

On the last trade, which is the first trade of the year, Keybot starts out on a negative note. The benchmark SPX is up +1.8% after the first week of trading in 2017. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is down -1.8% and the actual trading loses -3.6% to begin the year. The last trade began in late 2016 so the loss is larger due to the pro-rating of the data to begin 2017. The bulls have the ball with the algo number 16 points above the signal line.

1/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/17; 2:14 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68
1/6/17; 12:57 PM EST = +68; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
1/6/17; 12:33 PM EST = +84; signal line is +69; go long 2280; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -3.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -3.6%)
1/6/17; 10:58 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71
1/6/17; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +71
1/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +72
1/4/17; 11:42 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73
1/4/17; 11:18 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short
1/4/17; 10:49 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/4/17; 10:09 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short
1/4/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +76
1/1/17; Begin 2017 Data Set = +38; signal line is +77; go short 2239; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2017 = 0%)

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls are pushing hard to flip the algo back to the long side. Keybot prints five numbers today and the algo wanted to go long but the internal programming parameters would not fully latch to permit the move.

Thursday will be a duel between utilities and retail stocks. UTIL is battling at its 50-week MA at 661.55. This is an extremely important market parameter. The bulls punched above but then fell back below. If UTIL remains under 661.55, stocks will be in trouble for the weeks and months ahead. If the bulls push UTIL above 661.55 (now at 659.24 only 2 points away), Dow 20K is on tap as the bulls will send stocks strongly higher. If UTIL moves above 661.55, and the SPX moves above 2273, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bears desperately need weaker retail stocks and for the RTH to drop under 76.48 (now at 76.93). This will create a leg lower in the stock market. After the closing bell this evening, KSS, M and other retail stocks are collapsing on lower guidance and disappointing holiday retail sales. The bears smile; this is exactly what they need, however, is it enough to sink the RTH tomorrow? If RTH remains bullish, and UTIL bearish, the stock market will stagger along sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2271, the bulls need to touch the 2273 handle, only 2 points higher, and bingo, the upside will accelerate with price tapping on 2280 so fast your head will spin. Watch the overnight S&P futures to see if a couple positive points appear, or not. The bears need to push below 2262 to get their mojo back. A move through 2263-2272 is sideways action for Thursday.

The bears are in control but the bulls have their hands on the steering wheel as well. The algo number is only 5 points below the signal line. UTIL 661.55 and RTH 76.48 will tell the stock market direction story on Thursday. Bulls cheer for higher utilities while bears cheer for lower retail stocks.

1/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =
1/4/17; 11:42 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73
1/4/17; 11:18 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short
1/4/17; 10:49 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/4/17; 10:09 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short
1/4/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +76

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the first day of trading in the new year. The algo prints one number after the opening bell with the algo number now 24 points under the signal line remaining stubbornly bearish. Volatility collapsed with the VIX dropping to a 12-handle so the bulls punched the bears in the face in today's trade.

Wednesday is a critical day. Market bulls need UTIL above 661.50 and/or RTH above 76.48 to guarantee upside stock market joy; the Dow will be over 20K and the SPX will be targeting 2300. Keybot likely needs both parameters to turn bullish to create a flip back to the long side. But either parameter turning bullish guarantees stock market upside and the Dow will likely print 20,000.

The market bears need lower copper so watch the trading overnight to see if the other yellow metal sinks lower, or not. Bears need JJC under 28.39 and it is smooth sailing lower for the stock market. Bears need lower copper and higher volatility (watch the VIX 14.10 level) while bulls need higher utes and retail stocks.

For the SPX starting at 2258, the bulls need to touch the 2264 handle and bingo, price will be above 2270 in a flash. The bears need to push under 2245 to regain downside mojo. A move through 2246-2263 is sideways for hump day. Utilities, retailers and copper dictate broad stock market direction currently.

1/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
1/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =
1/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +76
1/1/17; Begin 2017 Data Set = +38; signal line is +77; go short 2239; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2017 = 0%)