Thursday, March 23, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and idles along sideways for the last couple days. The previous important parameters remain bearish so stocks are staggering sideways. Copper shows signs of life which may place a bottom in stocks. Watch JJC 30.45 (now at 30.35 only one dime below) which will place a firm floor in the stock market. Bulls will receive upside fuel if VIX drops under 11.92 and/or RTH above 78.22. Any one of the three parameters will place a floor in stocks.

Bears need to keep JJC under 30.45, VIX above 11.92 and RTH below 78.22 and they will continue to slap the bulls around.

For the SPX starting at 2346, the bulls need to touch the 2359 handle and price will accelerate higher. The bears need to push below 2342 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2343-2358 is sideways action for Friday. Higher copper will kick the bulls into rally mode. S&P futures are up +8 on Thursday evening. Bears need copper to trade lower to kick in more market selling. Copper is currently trading down -0.4%.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears seek revenge against the bulls in Tuesday's session. There is serious technical damage done with copper, banks, retail stocks and volatility. For Wednesday, the bulls can stop the market selling by either pushing VIX below 11.92 and/or RTH above 78.25. VIX trades before the stock market opens for the regular session and will provide a hint on market direction. If the VIX remains above 12 and the RTH remains under 78.25, the stock market will float along sideways with a downward bias.

For the SPX on hump day starting at 2344, the bulls need to push above 2382 to get their mojo back a formidable task but anything can happen in these markets. The bears need to push below 2342, only a couple points lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 2343-2381 is sideways action for Wednesday. VIX 11.92 may play a key role in the hump day trade. The bears are in charge and growling strongly with the algo number 54 points under the signal line.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78

Quarterly Reminder

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STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears showed up to play today and are bludgeoning the bulls. You saw copper down strongly overnight into the opening bell so you knew the gain of 6 points in the S&P futures did not mean anything. Copper started the ball rolling down hill and retail stocks, financials and volatility are crushing stocks lower.

The bulls need to send the VIX back below 11.92 as quick as possible to stop the market selling. Bulls can also stop the market selling by pushing XLF, the banks, above 24.04. The bears are growling. Focus on the price action around VIX 11.92 and XLF 24.04 since this will dictate broad stock market direction.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78
3/21/17; 10:59 AM EST = +38; signal line is +81
3/21/17; 10:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +83
3/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +84
3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short

Monday, March 20, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is one point above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the long side. Note that the bulls jogged copper, JJC, below and above the critical 30.46 bull-bear line in the sand which turned the model in the bulls favor. This was mentioned in the previous message; after a while you begin to notice patterns in the markets.

If the SPX touches and moves above 2380, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The bears need either JJC under 30.46 and/or RTH under 78.25 and/or VIX above 11.91. If any of the three turn bearish, Keybot will not flip to the long side and instead stocks will begin tumbling lower. If the downside in stocks occurs, the magnitude of the move lower is dictated as per if one, two or all three of the parameters turn bearish, or not. Watch copper overnight as an early indication on stock market direction for tomorrow. Bears need negative copper overnight while bulls will be happy with copper moving higher.The VIX begins trading at 4 AM EST so that will provide an early hint for market direction as well. 

For Tuesday, with the S&P 500 starting at 2373, the bulls need to push above 2380 to accelerate the upside and flip the algorithm long as explained above. Bulls would be best off with a slow and steady move higher in stocks rather than a gap-up move. The bears need to push below 2370 to accelerate the downside and regain control of market direction. A move through 2371-2379 is sideways action for Tuesday.

The bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it; they need SPX 2380. The bears will create downside selling in stocks with weaker copper, weaker retailers and/or higher volatility. The table is set for Tuesday. Which side will win?

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short
3/20/17; 2:53 PM EST = +70; signal line is +85
3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

Sunday, March 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short heading into the new week of trading but the algo wants to flip long. The internal programming parameters are not completely latching to allow the move. The bulls need GTX above 2345 to gain upside strength for stocks. The bears need JJC under 30.41, RTH under 78.22 and/or VIX above 12.48. One of the above four parameters need to flip to prove the direction ahead. Until then, more choppy sideways.

Watch to see if JJC jogs above and below 30.41 since that may hint that the algo is getting ready to flip long. The bears need copper to weaken and JJC to drop through 30.41 and to continue lower.

For the SPX starting at 2378, the bulls need to push above 2386 to accelerate the upside which will quickly run into the low 2390's. The bears need to push below 2378, only one point lower, to accelerate the downside. A move through 2379-2385 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, March 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. The bulls and bears are fighting it out with the algo number and signal line the same number. Copper, volatility and commodities will be key next week. The key parameters and levels impacting broad stock market direction can be identified after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short

Friday, March 17, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the bulls keep pushing for control. The pre-scheduled number prints this morning creating an interesting outcome. Both the algo number and the signal line are,....... wait for it, ........the same number at +86. Keybot is setting up to go long but the internal programming parameters are not yet latched to permit the move. The status is quo with the three previous parameters highlighted, JJC 30.40, VIX 12.48 and GTX 2345. Copper and volatility remain bullish while commodities remain bearish. One of these three should flinch at some point forward.

The SPX is,....... wait for it, ........2379, where the algo went short a few days ago. The markets are providing a lot of theatrics and drama but not going anywhere. Pay attention to copper; it may start playing games. The JJC 30.40 level is key.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short
3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

Thursday, March 16, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short heading into the Friday session. The bears need JJC under 30.40 (now at 30.69) and/or VIX above 12.48 (now at 11.21) to send the stock market lower. The bulls need to push GTX above 2345 (now at 2259) to send stocks higher. If the status quo remains, stocks will move sideways with a slight upward bias. One of these three parameters are going to flinch going forward. Copper may be sneaky at that JJC 30.40 level. If price oscillates above and below this key level that is hinting that Keybot may be setting up to flip long. The bears need JJC to fall through 30.40 and to keep on dropping like a rock.

For the SPX starting at 2381, the bulls need to push above 2388 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push below 2377 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2378-2387 is sideways action. Keybot printed a pre-scheduled number this morning and prints another on Friday morning one-half hour after the opening bell.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after the Federal Reserve hikes the key rate by 25 bips today. The algo prints three numbers in the morning before the Fed announcement. The algo number is only one point under the signal line. The caution flag is out. Bulls need GTX above 2345 to create more buying in stocks. Watch JJC 30.39, now at 30.58 creating bullishness in the stock market. If you see JJC oscillating above and below the 30.39 number tomorrow, the model is likely setting up to go long.

Bears need to push JJC under 30.39 and keep it under. The bears need RTH under 78.16 and/or the VIX above 12.51. RTH came down to the 78.16-ish level, that the algo called out ahead of time, and bounced.

For the SPX on Thursday starting at 2385, the bulls need to push above 2390 and price will be on its way to 2400. The bears need to push below 2369 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2370-2389 is sideways action for Thursday. The bears are hanging on by a thread. The bears need lower copper and retail stocks and higher volatility.

3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
3/15/17; 11:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +88
3/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +88
3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88