Thursday, October 18, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market continues to chop sideways from the high volatility. Bulls will benefit from stronger copper. If CPER moves above 17.40, and the SPX above 2813, Keybot will likely flip long.

Bears need weaker commodities and utilities and will benefit from GTX below 2765 and UTIL under 729.37, respectively. One of the three parameters should flinch going forward which will confirm the stock market direction ahead. The bears remain in charge with the algo number 13 points below the signal line. Watch copper, commodities and utilities.

10/21/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/18; 11:20 AM EST = +8; signal line is +21
10/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/16/18; 10:13 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls create a strong upside thrust. Utilities run higher creating bull fuel. Copper remains elevated and retail stocks catch a bid. The algo number is only 1 point from the signal line, in bear territory, so it is near where it will want to flip long but it did not flip long for the big rally today. Keybot only sees 1's and 0's and is not ready to flip long as yet.

The bears need weaker utilities and copper to prove they can jam stocks lower again. Bears need UTIL under 729.37 and/or CPER under 17.40.

The bulls need stronger retail stocks; this will paint the way higher. Bulls need RTH above 107.81 and the equity rally will develop strong legs higher.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning. The bulls and bears are battling. If RTH moves above 107.81, and the SPX moves above 2813, Keybot will likely flip long.

10/17/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/18; 10:13 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
10/15/18; 3:08 PM EST = +8; signal line is +26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utilities oscillate above and below the UTIL 729.37 bull-bear line in the sand. The bulls are jogging the utes to move the algo closer to flipping long. The algo number is 18 points below the signal line but was only 3 points below on the prior print.

Bulls need UTIL above 729.37 to create lift in the stock market. A continued move above and below this level, then resolving above, likely indicates that the relief rally for equities is underway.

Bears need utilities to sell off as well as copper and commodities. The SPX 2747 bull-bear line in the sand is uber importante. This represents the point of no return for the stock market and the SPX begins the day only 3 points above at 2750. If SPX 2747 fails and price remains below and trends lower, the stock market will be weak for weeks, months and perhaps years ahead. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

UTIL 729.37 (for happy bulls) or SPX 2747 (for ecstatic bears) will tell the market story on Tuesday. S&P futures are up +9 three hours before the opening bell.

10/21/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/15/18; 3:08 PM EST = +8; signal line is +26
10/15/18; 2:27 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
10/15/18; 11:10 AM EST = +8; signal line is +28
10/15/18; 10:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29
10/15/18; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29
10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +30

Sunday, October 14, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION


Keybot the Quant remains short. The wild choppy whipsaw market action will likely continue due to the elevated volatility. The bears are in control with the algo number 6 points below the signal line to begin the new week of trading.

The bears need UTIL under 729.37. This number is key for the entire week ahead. UTIL closed at 724 on Friday so at the opening bell the bears are going to receive downside juice from the weaker utilities. IF UTIL pops above 729.37, the stock market will build on a relief rally higher.

Bears will also create more carnage if CPER drops under 17.36 and/or the SPX below 2747. The SPX 2747 is a major stock market level where a crash scenario will be on the table if it fails.

The bulls must push UTIL above 729.37, NYA above 12806 and/or XLF above 27.83 to keep creating buoyancy and a potential rally with stocks. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

10/21/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +30
10/12/18; 3:01 PM EST = +24; signal line is +31

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Displays Keybot the Quant Turn Signals This Year

The chart shows the Keybot the Quant's turn signals over the last year. It is interesting to look back especially recalling how the algorithm remained stubbornly short in January as the stock markets partied higher day after day. That joy ended quickly into the early February low.

April into early May was a lot of whipsaw choppy action then the bulls took over. Instead of "Sell in May and Go Away" it was "Buy in May and Receive a Big Pay-Day."

Keybot flipped nicely short on 10/4/18 which would have been a perfect set up for the crash last week, however, the tricky bulls lured the algo back to the bull side. That resulted in the quick whipsaw back to the short side and the rout was on in equities. The wild and large moves in stock prices will continue both intraday and day to day due to the higher volatility. The VIX prints a 26-handle last week when only days before had an 11-handle.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as this week of historic and erratic market action ends. The algorithm remains active printing six numbers on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The bears remain in control with the algo number 7 points below the signal line.

The bulls recover the key SPX 2747 bull-bear line in the sand avoiding the Armageddon scenario for the stock market, for now. There is major trouble ahead for the stock market for weeks and months ahead if the S&P 500 loses the 2747 level.

Keybot is tracking utilities. The UTIL 729.37 level is a bull-bear line in the sand for all five days next week and UTIL ended last week at 724. Thus, after Monday's opening bell, the utilities will likely fail which is a feather in the bear's cap.

The SPX 2747 level, the NYA 12806 level, UTIL 729.37, CPER 17.36 and XLF 27.83 are key bull-bear parameters for early next week.

10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/12/18; 3:01 PM EST = +24; signal line is +31
10/12/18; 1:33 PM EST = +10; signal line is +31
10/12/18; 1:12 PM EST = +24; signal line is +33
10/12/18; 12:32 PM EST = +10; signal line is +34
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +36
10/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +36
10/11/18; 3:50 PM EST = +10; signal line is +37

Friday, October 12, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the wild market action continues. Keybot prints six numbers in the Thursday session and the bears continue running the show with the algo number 27 points below the signal line. Two major negative levels have been crossed in markets; NYA 12806 and SPX 2745. If prices remain below these levels the stock market is in serious trouble for weeks and months to come.

The bears need weaker copper, commodities and utilities to create further downside carnage. Bears need CPER under 17.34 now only 2 cents on the bull side at 17.36. Bulls obviously need to push copper higher. Copper futures are down -0.2% as this message is typed; the price action is along the flatline overnight.

The bulls need SPX above 2745 as soon as possible to stop the stock market bleeding. This level will at least stop the market selling and stabilize the situation. If the S&P 500 comes up to kiss the 2745 and rolls back over lower, the stock market can potentially experience a crash event.

If bulls attain the SPX 2745 level and hold it, they can probably flip Keybot back to the long side if either NYA moves above 12806 and/or XLF above 27.97. Q3 bank earnings begin in a couple hours and will send XLF wildly up, or down.

If CPER falls below 17.34, stocks will continue sideways to sideways lower. If SPX moves above 2745, the stock market will stabilize into the weekend. If the SPX regains 2745, and either NYA moves above 12806 and/or XLF above 27.97, consider the imminent turn back to the long side to be in play. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number later this morning. The beat goes on.

10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST =
10/11/18; 3:50 PM EST = +10; signal line is +37
10/11/18; 3:21 PM EST = +24; signal line is +38
10/11/18; 3:12 PM EST = +10; signal line is +39
10/11/18; 3:03 PM EST = -6; signal line is +41
10/11/18; 2:41 PM EST = +10; signal line is +44
10/11/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +46
10/10/18; 2:46 PM EST = +8; signal line is +47

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 2846 with a whipsaw move. The algo flipped long yesterday but then wanted to flip short from lunchtime into this morning. Stocks gapped-down at the opening bell so typically a recovery occurs. A gap-down timer was triggered so Keybot did not flip short immediately. Retail, banks, copper and the NYA Index have all lost key levels creating the crash in the stock market today.

The session was a bloodbath. Stocks trended slowly lower and then collapsed in the afternoon. When Ernest Hemingway was asked how he went bankrupt he quipped, "at first very slowly.....then all at once."

It was an odd day since banks held up for most of the morning. Ditto copper. Then they both gave up the ghost. The VIX spikes to 22 so the intraday and day to day moves in the stock market will be large and frequent going forward. There is likely choppy waters ahead.

The bears need weaker utilities and commodities to create further downside carnage. The SPX under 2749 will create a massive leg lower in stocks and potential crash event.

The bulls need to push one of these three parameters into the bull camp as fast as possible to stop the market bleeding; CPER above 17.34, NYA above 12806 and/or XLF above 27.97. CPER is at 17.32 only 2 cents on the bear side so watch copper overnight; it will provide an early indication of stock market direction tomorrow.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 44 points below the signal line. There was carnage today with the S&P 500 beaten 95 points; -3.3%. That will leave a mark.

On the last trade, that only lasted about 24 hours, the algo program loses -1.6% and the actual trading gives up -3%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +6.4% this year with the actual trading up about +12%. Keybot exits DDM and enters SH. The algo drops down into the single ETF's for the next month. The whipsaw of the algo signals that market choppiness may lay ahead so Keybot uses single 1x ETF's to minimize risk. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST =
10/10/18; 2:46 PM EST = +8; signal line is +47
10/10/18; 1:56 PM EST = +24; signal line is +49
10/10/18; 1:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is +51
10/10/18; 1:05 PM EST = +24; signal line is +53
10/10/18; 11:15 AM EST = +38; signal line is +54
10/10/18; 10:57 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56; go short 2846; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +6.4%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.9%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +11.7%)
10/9/18; 12:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
10/9/18; 10:31 AM EST = +70; signal line is +59; go long 2892; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side on Tuesday at SPX 2892. It was a wild day with stocks down at the opening bell then recovering then fading again late-day. Markets remain a coin-flip. Keybot may whipsaw back to the short side. The algo number is 4 points below the signal line wanting the model to flip to the bear camp especially if the SPX drops under 2874.

Banks, copper and retail stocks run the show currently. Copper and retail stocks created the upside in the stock market yesterday, and bank buoyancy, but retail gave up the ghost after lunchtime. The bulls need RTH aobve 108.32 to prove that up is the direction forward for stocks.

The bears need XLF below 27.97 and/or CPER (copper) under 17.34 to send the stock market lower. These two parameters are causing the stock market to lift and remain buoyant. S&P futures are down -3 about three hours before the opening bell for the regular session.

On the last trade, the algo program gains +0.6% and the actual trading gains +1.3%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +8.2% this year. The Keybot algo computer program is up +4% this year and the actual trading triggered by the algo is up +15%. Keybot exits DXD and enters DDM. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/18; 12:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
10/9/18; 10:31 AM EST = +70; signal line is +59; go long 2892; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)
10/9/18; 9:59 AM EST = +70; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains short
10/9/18; 9:53 AM EST = +54; signal line is +59
10/9/18; 9:47 AM EST = +38; signal line is +60
10/9/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61
10/8/18; 12:16 PM EST = +38; signal line is +61
10/8/18; 11:50 AM EST = +22; signal line is +62
10/8/18; 11:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +62
10/8/18; 10:39 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
10/8/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +63
10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66
10/4/18; 2:34 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
10/4/18; 2:21 PM EST = +38; signal line is +65
10/4/18; 1:47 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66
10/4/18; 1:36 PM EST = +38; signal line is +68
10/4/18; 12:44 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69
10/4/18; 12:37 PM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
10/4/18; 12:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71
10/4/18; 11:50 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72
10/4/18; 11:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +73
10/4/18; 10:11 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75; go short 2910; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.3%)

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bearish with an important day on tap. Banks, copper and retail stocks are the three main parameters currently impacting stock market direction. 

Bears need weaker banks, XLF under 27.98 (now at 28.19), and stocks will tumble lower. S&P futures are -13 as this message is typed but it means nothing unless XLF fails.

Bulls need JJCTF above 30.41 (now at 30.41) and/or RTH above 108.38 (now at 108.18). Copper futures trade higher so that will be a win for the bull camp since JJCTF will pop higher at the opening bell for the regular session.

Each of the three parameters sit on their respective bull-bear lines so the stock market is a coin-flip. This is why the caution flag is out. Today may be a wild day. The open will tell a lot. If both JJCTF and RTH turn bullish, consider the imminent turn in play, and if the SPX is above 2889 and moving higher, Keybot will likely flip long.

For now, the bears rule with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. Bears need XLF under 27.98 and dropping, otherwise, the bulls will probably stage a recovery.

10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/18; 12:16 PM EST = +38; signal line is +61

Monday, October 8, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is bearish as the new week of trading is underway. The algo is active off the get-go printing five numbers so far on Monday. The fight for stock market direction is between copper and banks. Market bears need weaker banks and for XLF to drop below 27.98. Bulls need stronger copper and for JJTF to move above 30.41.

The XLF spikes to 28.23 as this message is typed so you see the boost in the stock market. JJCTF is battling at the 30.41-30.42 bull-bear level. So bulls win if they can push copper higher while bears win if they push the banks lower. If JJCTF remains bearish (under 30.41) and XLF bullish (above 27.98), the stock market will likely move choppy sideways.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Bulls are trying to pull copper into their camp so they can begin a relief rally. The bears are in control of the stock market with the algo number 23 points below the signal line.

10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/18; 12:16 PM EST = +38; signal line is +61
10/8/18; 11:50 AM EST = +22; signal line is +62
10/8/18; 11:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +62
10/8/18; 10:39 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
10/8/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +63
10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66

Friday, October 5, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the Friday session underway. Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number remaining bearish with the algo number 12 points below the signal line.

Key parameters are not budging from their respective camps. RTH remains bearish below 108.58. XLF remains bullish above 27.97. JJCTF remains bullish above 30.38. One of these three will likely flinch and dictate the path ahead for the stock market.

10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66
10/4/18; 2:34 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65

Thursday, October 4, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 2910. The algo is very active, the most in a long time, printing 13 numbers today including the turn to the bear side.  Comically, at the opening bell, the banks jumped into the bull camp but simultaneously, the chips jumped into the bear camp. The stock market remains a coin-flip and it is even more of a crap-shoot with the jobs report on tap Friday morning.

The bears need XLF under 27.97, JJCTF under 30.38 and/or UTIL under 711, to create market mayhem. Each parameter that may turn bearish would create another leg lower in the stock market.

The bulls need RTH above 108.59, SOX above 1370 and/or VIX below 12.91. Each parameter that would turn bullish would create a strong relief rally for the stock market. If any one of the three parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 2920, Keybot may whipsaw back to the long side. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

Thus, bears need lower banks, copper and utes. Bulls need higher retail stocks, chips and lower volatility.

On the last trade, that was only three days, the Keybot program loses -0.7%. The actual trading ekes out a +0.2% gain only because the robot was in the DDM ETF (the Dow was strong despite broad market weakness). Keybot exits DDM and enters DXD. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +9%, the Keybot the Quant algo program is up +3% and the Keybot the Quant actual trading is up +13%.

Retail, banks and copper tell the story for Friday. Watch the RTH 108.59, XLF 27.97 and JJCTF 30.38 bull-bear lines in the sand. They are the rudders that steer the stock market directional ship. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning.

10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/4/18; 2:34 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
10/4/18; 2:21 PM EST = +38; signal line is +65
10/4/18; 1:47 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66
10/4/18; 1:36 PM EST = +38; signal line is +68
10/4/18; 12:44 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69
10/4/18; 12:37 PM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
10/4/18; 12:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71
10/4/18; 11:50 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72
10/4/18; 11:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +73
10/4/18; 10:11 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75; go short 2910; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.3%)
10/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
10/4/18; 9:10 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
10/4/18; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
10/3/18; 2:42 PM EST = +84; signal line is +74
10/3/18; 12:14 PM EST = +100; signal line is +75
10/3/18; 11:54 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
10/3/18; 9:54 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
10/1/18; 9:41 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74; go long 2931; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +9.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long printing four numbers in the Wednesday session. Keybot prints another +100 maximum number. The bulls appear unstoppable. The algo number remains 10 points above the signal line.

The current battle for stock market direction is centered around the chips and banks. Bulls win if XLF moves above 27.98 (now at 27.95 only 3 cents on the bear side creating market negativity).

Bears need SOX below 1369.85 (now at 1372 on the bull side creating market positivity). If SOX turns bearish and the SPX drops below 2921, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Bears are also helped if RTH falls below 108.60 and/or if JJCTF falls below 30.40. The VIX above 12.89 would also help the bears.

The bulls are driving the bus and will receive more upside fuel with stronger banks. Bulls must also keep semiconductors strong. Bloomberg, however, releases a negative story a few hours ago about China installing nefarious hardware chips in US devices so the chip sector may be slapped around today.

The bears need weaker chips, retail stocks and copper and higher volatility. XLF 27.98 and SOX 1369.85 dictate the stock market direction ahead. The beat goes on.

10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/3/18; 2:42 PM EST = +84; signal line is +74
10/3/18; 12:14 PM EST = +100; signal line is +75
10/3/18; 11:54 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
10/3/18; 9:54 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
10/1/18; 9:41 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74; go long 2931; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +9.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 2931. The stock market is a coin-flip with the semiconductors not yet willing to choose a direction. SOX is at the 1370 level that Keybot has been calling out for several days. The banks are the bear's best friend.

The drama is with the chips. The SOX bull-bear line in the sand is 1369.65 (price is now at 1370.44). The stock market will weaken if SOX loses the 1370 level. Stocks will strengthen if SOX moves higher. Bears, in addition to SOX sub 1370, need JJCTF (copper) to fall below 30.40 (now at 30.61). Bulls need XLF above 28.00 which will create upside strength for stocks.

Thus, bulls need higher semiconductors and banks. Bears need lower semi's, lower copper and higher volatility.

Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side especially in these erratic unstable markets. Chips are running the show and dictating the direction of the broad stock market.

On the last trade, the algo program loses -0.8% and the actual trading dumps -1.5%. The benchmark SPX is up +9.6% this year. The Keybot the Quant computer program is up +4% and actual trading is up +13% on the year. Keybot exits the losing SDS trade and enters DDM. Watch SOX 1370.

10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/18; 9:41 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74; go long 2931; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +9.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)
9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +68; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 8:40 AM EST = +52; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 6:50 AM EST = +38; signal line is +74
9/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +75
9/27/18; 1:12 PM EST = +68; signal line is +76
9/27/18; 12:42 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains short
9/27/18; 12:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +77
9/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77; go short 2908; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)

Sunday, September 30, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as trading for the month of October begins. The EOM and EOQ3 for trading ended on Friday. Monday is the first day of Q4.

The SOX came up to poke at the 1370 level, that Keybot called out ahead of time, and failed. Isn't it astounding that Keybot can perform such a feat? That guaranteed soggy stocks to finish the week and US equities were flat on the day. If SOX would have taken out 1370, the stock indexes would have jumped strongly higher. Watch the semi's.

Weak chips and banks are causing market weakness while stronger utilities and copper, and lower volatility, are creating market lift.

Bears need UTIL under 711, JJCTF under 30.34 and/or VIX above 12.97.  Bulls need SOX above 1370 and/or XLF above 28.05. These five parameters are steering the stock market ship to begin the new week ahead. If the bulls flip either the semiconductors or banks bullish, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2921, Keybot may flip long.

Watch SOX 1370 (now at 1367) at the opening bell on Monday morning since it will immediately dictate the broad stock market direction. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

10/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
10/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +68; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73

Friday, September 28, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algo remains active. The algo number is 5 points below the signal line with the bears in control. The bulls jammed the utilities higher which creates buoyancy in the broad stock market. Financials remain weak. Chips remain weak but the bulls are jamming the semi's higher hoping to gather more upside juice. Volatility remains bullish but was helping the bears a few hours ago.

Bears need VIX above 12.97 and/or UTIL below 710.80 to create stock market mayhem.

Bulls need XLF above 28.06 and/or SOX above 1370 to guarantee an upside path for the stock market ahead. If either the banks or chips turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 2927, Keybot may flip long.

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 8:40 AM EST = +52; signal line is +73
9/28/18; 6:50 AM EST = +38; signal line is +74
9/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +75
9/27/18; 1:12 PM EST = +68; signal line is +76
9/27/18; 12:42 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains short
9/27/18; 12:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +77
9/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77; go short 2908; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)

Thursday, September 27, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side at SPX 2908 late Wednesday. The utilities failed creating a weak day. Chips remain weak. Late in the hump day session, the banks failed.

The bears need the VIX above 12.98 (now trading at 12.50) to create stock market carnage. Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper and commodities.

The bulls need XLF above 28.06 (now at 27.97) pronto. Bulls also need UTIL above 710.80 (now at 704) and SOX above 1370 (now at 1352). Bulls need stronger banks, utilities and chips.

On the last trade, the changes were flat. Keybot had went long at SPX 2907 the other day and now goes short at the same level at 2908. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +52; signal line is +77; go short 2908; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.6%)
9/26/18; 3:44 PM EST = +52; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
9/26/18; 10:26 AM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
9/25/18; 1:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +79
9/25/18; 12:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78
9/25/18; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +78
9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76
9/20/18; 11:41 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75
9/19/18; 1:45 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73
9/19/18; 1:27 PM EST = +68; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long
9/19/18; 12:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +72
9/19/18; 12:43 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
9/19/18; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71
9/19/18; 10:42 AM EST = +100; signal line is +71; go long 2907; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.7%)

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears continue battling. Utilities failed today at lunchtime so the door was wide open for the bears but they did not have the strength to follow through. The algo number fell below the signal line but the internal parameters would not completely latch to permit Keybot to flip to the short side.

Bears need UTIL under 710.80 (now at 712) to create stock market negativity. If UTIL falls below 711 and remains below, this spells serious trouble for the stock market over the intermediate term (weeks and months ahead). In the very near term, any day, if the UTIL 711 fails, remain alert for a sharp flush lower in the S&P 500. UTIL failed today at 711 but then recovered before any carnage could occur.

Bears also need VIX above 12.97 (now at 12.42). If either UTIL goes sub 711, or VIX pops above 12.97, either one would do, and the SPX drops under 2914, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need strong chips. Bulls need SOX above 1370.50 (now at 1365) pronto. The semiconductors are the only thing that can pull the bulls out of the quagmire. Bears need weaker chips, weaker utes and higher volatility. These three parameters currently dictate stock market direction.

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/18; 1:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +79
9/25/18; 12:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo did not print any numbers on Monday but prints the pre-scheduled number and one other this morning. The algo comes off of the epic +100 number now only 6 points above the signal line. The chips turn weak over the last few minutes creating the slight negativity. Watch SOX 1370.25 since this will tell you if the stock market will go up or down today. For now, the SOX is at 1369 and change, a hair on the bear side, creating market negativity.

Bears will also benefit from VIX above 12.97 and/or UTIL below 710.89. Watch UTIL closely since a failure at 711 will forecast sustained trouble for the US stock market going forward. If either VIX or UTIL turns bearish, and the SPX is under 2913, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Watch those chips.

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78
9/25/18; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +78
9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76


Sunday, September 23, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with the algorithm pegged at the historic and epic maximum +100 level. Copper exploded +10% higher last week sending stocks to new all-time record highs. The Dow Jones Industrials, INDU or DJI, overtake the January record highs. It is remarkable to see a +100 print since once stocks eventually roll over, another +100 may not appear for many years.

The bulls are in control. Market bears will need weaker copper (JJCTF below 30.16) and higher volatility (VIX above 13.00) to create negativity.  Weaker chips (SOX below 1369) and weaker utilities (UTIL under 711.23) will also create stock market negativity. If any of the four parameters turn bearish, consider the caution flag out. If two turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play and if the SPX is below 2927 and dropping, Keybot may flip short.

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning the other Friday morning. The last day of trading for September is Friday (EOM and EOQ3).

9/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/18; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76
9/20/18; 11:41 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75

Thursday, September 20, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long printing one number today again achieving the +100 level the highest possible number for the algorithm. It is historic. The stock market is receiving all systems go from its root parameters. The S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials print new all-time record highs.

Copper jumps into the bull camp creating stock market joy. Bears need JJCTF below 30.06 pronto to stop the upside in equities. SOX below 1368 and/or VIX above 13.00 would also help the bears. For now, the bulls rule the stock market with a +100 orgy party.

The bears likely need 2 of the 3 parameters to turn bearish to flip Keybot to the short side. Watch copper, chips and volatility.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/18; 11:41 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75
9/19/18; 1:45 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today as the algorithm tags +100 the highest number possible for the oscillator. It completely pegged to the maximum possible number and that triggers Keybot to finally flip long at SPX 2907. The stock market is a coin-flip right now, perhaps traders are biding their time ahead of the big Wednesday, 9/26/18, Fed rate hike next week that is a done deal? Watch out for a potential whipsaw.

The bulls pulled copper into their camp to print the +100 algo number but that only lasted for an hour and the bears pull copper back into their camp. The chips are in the bull camp.

The Thursday battle is copper versus semiconductors. The bulls need JJCTF above 30.06 and stocks will experience an orgy of upside joy with new record highs on tap. Bears need to push SOX below 1367.44, and the stock market will become ill and deteriorate lower. If the VIX then moves above 13.00, the stock market will fall apart.

Generally, if SOX turns bearish and the SPX drops below 2904, Keybot may be getting ready to whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade, Keybot exits TWM and enters SSO. The algo program loses -0.7% since the direction was short but the stock market generally headed higher. However, the small caps did drift lower so TWM (2x invert ETF) was a +1.8% winner nonetheless. Sometimes the ETF selection helps and sometimes it can hurt. Keybot strives to typically play the SSO (2x), SDS (-2x), SPY (1x) and SH (-1x) derivatives of the S&P 500. The actual trading is up almost +15% this year thus far. 

JJCTF 30.06 and SOX 1367.44 tell the market direction story. They will join together on one side or the other and dictate the direction of the stock market ahead. Copper and chips. You can check copper futures overnight to see how they are trading.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/18; 1:45 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73
9/19/18; 1:27 PM EST = +68; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long
9/19/18; 12:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +72
9/19/18; 12:43 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
9/19/18; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71
9/19/18; 10:42 AM EST = +100; signal line is +71; go long 2907; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +14.7%)
9/19/18; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short
9/18/18; 10:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short
9/18/18; 10:16 AM EST = +70; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
9/18/18; 10:07 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67
9/18/18; 9:07 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
9/17/18; 3:12 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68
9/17/18; 3:03 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
9/17/18; 2:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
9/17/18; 1:20 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
9/14/18; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short
9/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short
9/13/18; 3:11 PM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/13/18; 11:17 AM EST = +84; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = +68; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/13/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains short
9/12/18; 3:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short
9/12/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61
9/12/18; 11:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains short
9/12/18; 10:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +62
9/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +68; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains short
9/12/18; 6:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
9/12/18; 3:45 AM EST = +68; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
9/11/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64
9/11/18; 10:55 AM EST = +70; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
9/11/18; 10:19 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66
9/11/18; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
9/11/18; 9:53 AM EST = +56; signal line is +67
9/11/18; 9:47 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
9/11/18; 9:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
9/10/18; 10:38 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains short
9/10/18; 10:09 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69
9/10/18; 9:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
9/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +71
9/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +71
9/7/18; 1:10 PM EST = +40; signal line is +72
9/7/18; 1:01 PM EST = +56; signal line is +73
9/7/18; 12:30 PM EST = +40; signal line is +73
9/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74
9/6/18; 11:16 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74
9/5/18; 3:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75
9/4/18; 3:59 PM EST = +84; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains short
9/4/18; 9:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74; go short 2888; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +8.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +12.9%)

Monday, September 17, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the chips and high volatility jump back into the bear camp. The algo prints four numbers to begin the week and the algo is back under the signal line by 14 points. Chips, volatility and banks dictate the path ahead for the stock market.

Bears need XLF under 28.02 (now at 28.11) and stocks will take a significant leg lower.

Bulls need either SOX above 1367 (now at 1357.48) and/or VIX below 13.03 (now at 13.68).  If one of the two turn bullish, the turn to the long side is firmly on the table. If both turn bullish, the stock market will be ramping higher towards new all-time highs. If either SOX or VIX turns bullish, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2905, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

Bears need weaker banks while bulls need stronger chips and lower volatility. Watch XLF 28.02 since that likely tells you if the stock market plans on collapsing, or not. The odd price action continues.

9/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/18; 9:00 AM EST =
9/17/18; 3:12 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68
9/17/18; 3:03 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
9/17/18; 2:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
9/17/18; 1:20 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short