Thursday, July 21, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo idles along this week without printing any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning. The idle action with Keybot verifies the sideways move in markets over the last few days. Market bulls need higher commodities; GTX above 2300. Bears need higher volatility; VIX above 15.22.

In general, key parameters currently impacting market direction are commodities, volatility, copper and financials. The moves in these parameters dictate stock market direction. Remember, volatility moves inversely to equities. If VIX moves above 15.22, or XLF under 23.00, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX at 2165 for Friday trading, the bulls need to touch 2175 and bingo, the upside will accelerate and if GTX turns bullish, stocks will rally strongly higher and not look back. The bears need to push below 2160 and boom, stocks will accelerate lower. A move through 2161-2174 is sideways action. The beat goes on. Sometimes after a sideways lull in the market, a wild acceleration phase occurs; the mystery is will it be up, or down?

7/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +82; signal line is +75

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and is very calm thus far this week not printing any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number before the opening bell. Bulls need GTX, commodities, above 2306 to prove that the stock market will travel higher. Bears need to push JJC, copper, under 24.56 to prove they can take the market lower. Bears would also benefit from weaker banks and higher volatility. Stocks are idling sideways.

7/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/16; 9:00 AM EST = +82; signal line is +75
7/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +75

Sunday, July 17, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the new week of trading. The bears stopped the upside rally with lower commodities. Lower copper is likely needed for the algorithm to flip short. Market bulls will celebrate with higher commodities, GTX above 2306, which will send stocks strongly higher. Bears will be victorious if GTX remains under 2306 and if JJC drops under 24.56. This would require a large drop in copper so if you see copper selling off strongly overnight that is a hint that the market bears may be favored on Monday.

If JJC drops under 24.56, and SPX under 2156, Keybot will likely flip short. The SPX begins the week at 2165. The bears need to push under 2156 to accelerate the downside. The bulls need to push above 2169 to accelerate the upside.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. The bulls are in charge but if copper drops in earnest consider a turn to be imminent. Interesting, copper is trading down -0.6% to 2.22 on Sunday evening but bears will need lots more.

7/24/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/16; 9:00 AM EST =
7/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +75
7/15/16; 11:07 AM EST = +82; signal line is +75

Friday, July 15, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the dramatic week continues. The bulls are in control with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. Market bulls need higher commodities, GTX above 2306, to prove that they can take stocks higher. Bears need either  lower banks, XLF under 22.84, or lower copper, JJC under 24.52, to guarantee a path lower for equities. If banks or copper turn negative consider the imminent turn in play and if the SPX drops under 2156, the model may flip short (but either banks or copper must turn bearish). The beat goes on. Commodities, financials and copper are dictating broad market direction today.

7/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/16; 11:07 AM EST = +82; signal line is +75
7/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = +96; signal line is +75
7/15/16; 9:53 AM EST = +98; signal line is +75
7/14/16; 11:52 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74
7/14/16; 11:31 AM EST = +98; signal line is +74
7/13/16; 10:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +72
7/12/16; 11:42 AM EST = +98; signal line is +72

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. You see the buoyancy in copper and commodities taking stocks higher. JJC and GTX join the bull camp and the algorithm is at epic and historic levels at +98. The +100 level is the maximum possible! The bullish euphoria is off the charts. Aunt Edna just invested her entire life savings in dividend stocks. There is something special that is going to happen in the markets.

The bulls are running the show with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. Bears will only be able to stop the stock market rally if GTX drops under 2306, JJC under 24.52 and/or XLF under 22.84. Bank earnings are on tap that will directly impact XLF. If one of these parameters turn bearish consider the caution flag out. If two turn bearish and the SPX drops under 2140, Keybot will likely flip short.

It is remarkable to see a +98 print. These are special times. Watch commodities, copper and financials.

7/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/16; 11:42 AM EST = +98; signal line is +72
7/12/16; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70
7/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long

Sunday, July 10, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. Interestingly, on Friday, the rally gathered steam in the afternoon but copper could not catch a bid. As everyone celebrates, copper, a key to the economy, was the only asset flat to lower. This week begins with the algo number and signal line both at +68. How do you like that? The stock market is a toss-up. The model is teetering on a tight rope about to commit to one direction or the other.

The bulls need stronger copper and commodities to continue the upside stock market party. This  means that a weaker US dollar index is needed which will drive commodities, and stocks, higher. Watch copper in overnight trading since as copper goes, so goes the stock market. Bulls need JJC above 24.38, if so, new record stock market highs are guaranteed and the bulls begin the new week where they left off on Friday.

The bears need copper to remain weak and at the same time push the banks lower. Bank earnings are going to hit the tape starting with JPM mid-week. Bears need XLF under 22.77 to prove they have the beans to take stocks lower. If XLF  fails, and the SPX drops under 2107, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

For the SPX starting at 2130 testing the all-time record highs, the bulls need to touch the 2132 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate, copper will likely be heading higher and a bull party will begin the new week. The bears need to push under 2107 to accelerate the downside in equities. A move through 2108-2131 is sideways action to begin the week. The bulls have the ball but as the algo and signal line numbers show, both bulls and bears have their hands on the steering wheel as the bus careens down the boulevard.

Watch copper and financials to determine market direction. Bulls win with higher copper while bears win with weaker banks. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

7/17/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/16; 10:00 AM EST =
7/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
7/8/16; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67

Friday, July 8, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The pre-scheduled number prints before the opening bell and one number prints after the bell. Yesterday was active with the algo printing five numbers. Note that the algo number is only one measly point above the signal line. This verifies the continued bull-bear fight and battle is ongoing.

Financials and copper are currently controlling broad market direction. Bulls win big with new record highs on the way if JJC moves above 24.38. Market bears will stop the rally in its track if they push XLF below 22.77. If XLF 22.77 fails, consider the imminent turn in play but Keybot may not flip short until SPX 2089 occurs, if it does. For now, the bulls rule.

7/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/16; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +67
7/8/16; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long
7/7/16; 11:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains long
7/7/16; 10:54 AM EST = +66; signal line is +62
7/7/16; 10:39 AM EST = +82; signal line is +61
7/7/16; 9:56 AM EST = +66; signal line is +59
7/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = +82; signal line is +58
7/6/16; 1:01 PM EST = +66; signal line is +57; go long 2097; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.1%)

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side today at SPX 2097 as  the erratic and choppy market action continues. The session began with bear joy but then commodities rallied and volatility dropped creating an upside rally. The bulls need either SOX above 677.90 or XLF above 22.77. The bears need to push VIX above 15.86, or GTX under 2310, or JJC under 24.41. Any one of these three parameters would stop the upside rally.

On the last trade, a 9-hour trade, the algo program loses a smidge and the actual trading loses -0.6%. The benchmark SPX is up +2.6% this year. The Keybot algo is up +7% this year and actual trading is up +14% so far this year. Since a whipsaw occurred, the algo drops into single ETF mode for the next 35 days. Markets are too choppy to play leveraged ETF's. Keybot exits SDS with the loss and enters SPY.

For the SPX on Thursday starting at 2100, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 2101 level, and the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2074 to regain their mojo. If the VIX, GTX or JJC turns bearish, any one of the three would do, and the SPX drops under 2074, Keybot will likely flip short. A move through SPX 2075-2100 is sideways action for Thursday. The bulls have the ball but the algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. A whipsaw move could easily occur back to the bear side. Markets are very unstable.

7/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =
7/6/16; 1:01 PM EST = +66; signal line is +57; go long 2097; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.1%)
7/6/16; 12:09 PM EST = +66; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
7/6/16; 11:47 AM EST = +52; signal line is +55
7/6/16; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
7/5/16; 3:46 PM EST = +66; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
7/5/16; 9:40 AM EST = +52; signal line is +55; go short 2091; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.7%)

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side shortly after this morning's opening bell at SPX 2091. The move came on very fast. Financials stayed in the bear camp, then volatility spiked higher and then the semiconductors broke down. Thus, the bears have a turn at bat. The break lower was very clean for once; lately there has been a lot of drama around the turns. As seen by the last print, the algorithm is already champing at the bit to go long again. If the SPX moves above 2095, Keybot will likely flip long.

For Wednesday, the bulls need to push the chips higher, SOX above 678, and/or the banks higher, XLF above 22.77. Either one will tell you that the market bulls have legs and will take stocks higher. The bears need higher volatility, VIX above 15.88, and/or lower commodities, GTX under 2310, to prove that down is the path ahead for stocks. These four parameters currently control broad stock market direction so there are several moving parts. Pay attention to the VIX 15.88 level it will tell  you if the bears got game. If VIX stays under 15.88, the bears will fold like a cheap suit.

For the SPX for Wednesday starting at 2089, the bulls need to move above 2095 and bingo, price will accelerate back above 2100. The bears need to push below 2081 and a flush lower will occur into the low to mid 2070's a critical support area. A move through 2082-2094 is sideways action.

On the last trade, the computer program gains +1.9% and the actual trading nearly +4%. Keybot exits DDM and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The benchmark SPX Index is up +2.3% this year. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side. Watch  volatility and the chips.

7/10/16; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/16; 9:00 AM EST =
7/5/16; 3:46 PM EST = +66; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
7/5/16; 9:40 AM EST = +52; signal line is +55; go short 2091; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.5%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.7%)
7/5/16; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +55
7/3/16; 7:00 PM EST = +82; signal line is +56
7/1/16; 12:22 PM EST = +82; signal line is +55
6/30/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +98; signal line is +54
6/30/16; 3:58 PM EST = +98; signal line is +52
6/30/16; 3:51 PM EST = +68; signal line is +50
6/30/16; 3:23 PM EST = +82; signal line is +50
6/30/16; 2:16 PM EST = +98; signal line is +49
6/30/16; 10:43 AM EST = +82; signal line is +47
6/29/16; 1:29 PM EST = +68; signal line is +45
6/29/16; 1:11 PM EST = +52; signal line is +44
6/29/16; 12:12 PM EST = +68; signal line is +44
6/29/16; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43; go long 2053; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +5.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.0%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.0%)

Sunday, July 3, 2016

June Publication of Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-06 Available from Amazon; Brexit Referendum Wins; Record Low Global Bond Yields; "Populism"; Sick Italian Banks

The June publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2016-06 is available through Amazon (AMZN). The epic market action continues. 

The big monthly drama for June is the Brexit referendum win. Britain will proceed with exiting the European Union once Article 50 is invoked. UK Prime Minister Cameron resigns with a target date of October when the Article 50  would be invoked by the new prime minister; that is at least the current plan that will likely twist and change. A 'Populism' movement rises. THE CHRONOLOGY EXPLAINS THE DAY BY DAY DRAMA LEADING INTO THE BREXIT VOTE INCLUDING MP JO COX'S ASSASSINATION AND THE IMPACT ON GLOBAL MARKETS. This documentation does not exist anywhere else on the internet.


The Brexit outcome created a big flush downward in markets but the BOE came in to save the day. Central bankers such as the BOE, Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBOC keep pumping stocks higher. The chronology explains how the central bankers are the market. Global yields print new record lows led to the negative side by Switzerland, Japan and GermanyThe US Monthly Jobs Report was a paltry 38K jobs but that news was overshadowed as the Brexit drama played out.


The Italian banks are very sick and officials meet through the holiday weekend to develop plans for saving the banks. Portuguese and Spanish banks are also sick. The European banks may create global contagion.


The chronology describes the reactions to economic data such as the Monthly Jobs Reports in real-time. There is no other document available on the world wide web that records the action in real-time with common sense easy-to-understand detail. Inflation, that the Federal Reserve has tried to create for seven years with their obscene Keynesian programs, cannot exist without wage inflation occurring so each jobs report is very important.


The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists in this format where the stock, bond and currency moves are provided and explained as world events take place in real-time.


The chronology records economic history preventing revisionist tampering in future years. Many of the same asset managers telling everyone to go long the market in 2007-2008 repeat the same mantra in 2015-2016. The stock market topped in May 2015 placing anyone that listened to television pundits over the last couple years either flat or underwater on their long trades.


Analyst and strategist quotes and words are recorded in the chronology so credit or disdain can be handed out in the future. If a multi-year top has printed, the chronology serves as the most accurate accounting of the stock market topping process ever recorded in economic and market historyThe chronology is the most reliable and easy to understand source for explaining global marketsThe chronology is very easy to read and avoids using fancy ten-dollar college words.


As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on this web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.


We are living through historic stock market and economic times. The daily chronology is the most accurate accounting on how the stock market tops and bottoms occur in real-time. The monthly publications are compatible with any electronic device and include an extensive Business Acronym List and Ticker Symbol List. The Acronym List is the most comprehensive business-related acronym list available on the internet. The chronology is not available in hard copy and only distributed around the world electronically.


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