Thursday, December 1, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 2193 at about 1 PM EST this afternoon. Volatility spikes through the roof creating market weakness. The algo number is 6 points below the signal line so caution is warranted. The algorithm may whipsaw back to the long side over the next day especially in these erratic and shaky markets.

Bulls need VIX under 13.86 and they can stop the stock market selling. Bears need to push VIX above 14.90 to accelerate the market selling. VIX is currently printing at 14.24. Also, if SOX moves under 835 and/or RTH under 77.17, chips and retail stocks, respectively, the selling will exacerbate. Watch  these 3 parameters to gauge stock market direction ahead.

The benchmark SPX index is up +7.3% this year. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +3.6% on the last trade and is up over +15% this year. The actual trading was in IWM which catapulted over +11% higher with the total return for the year now above +28%. The last trade was big with that hefty Trump Rally. Keybot exited IWM and entered TWM. Stay alert for a whipsaw which would only potentially happen if the VIX falls back under 13.86.

12/4/16; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/16; 9:00 AM EST =
12/1/16; 12:58 PM EST = +52; signal line is +58; go short 2193; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.6%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +15.3%)(Actual results this trade = +11.3%; Actual results for 2016 = +28.3%)
12/1/16; 12:14 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
12/1/16; 11:49 AM EST = +66; signal line is +57
12/1/16; 11:18 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
12/1/16; 11:09 AM EST = +66; signal line is +55
12/1/16; 10:54 AM EST = +52; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
11/30/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +66; signal line is +53
11/30/16; 9:36 AM EST = +66; signal line is +51
11/29/16; 3:59 PM EST = +68; signal line is +50
11/29/16; 3:45 PM EST = +52; signal line is +48
11/29/16; 3:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +47
11/29/16; 3:08 PM EST = +52; signal line is +45
11/29/16; 2:50 PM EST = +68; signal line is +44
11/29/16; 2:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +42
11/29/16; 10:50 AM EST = +68; signal line is +41
11/29/16; 10:22 AM EST = +52; signal line is +40
11/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +40
11/29/16; 9:56 AM EST = +67; signal line is +38
11/29/16; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +37
11/28/16; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +35
11/27/16; 7:00 PM EST = +51; signal line is +34
11/25/16; 11:19 AM EST = +51; signal line is +33
11/23/16; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +32
11/21/16; 10:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +30
11/20/16; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +28
11/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
11/16/16; 2:12 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
11/16/16; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
11/15/16; 1:17 PM EST = +48; signal line is +23
11/15/16; 12:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +22
11/15/16; 11:01 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/15/16; 10:16 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19
11/14/16; 2:25 PM EST = +18; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/14/16; 12:46 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18
11/14/16; 12:13 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
11/14/16; 9:52 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
11/13/16; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
11/11/16; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/10/16; 11:27 AM EST = +17; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/10/16; 10:53 AM EST = +1; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
11/10/16; 10:07 AM EST = +17; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/16; 10:02 AM EST = +33; signal line is +22
11/10/16; 9:46 AM EST = +47; signal line is +22
11/10/16; 9:37 AM EST = +31; signal line is +23
11/9/16; 1:26 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/9/16; 12:37 PM EST = +33; signal line is +24
11/9/16; 12:21 PM EST = +17; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/9/16; 11:51 AM EST = +33; signal line is +25
11/9/16; 9:41 AM EST = +17; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +27; go long 2116; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +11.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2016 = +17.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the Thursday trading session. Utilities were slapped lower so bears rejoice but at the same time commodities  spiked higher nullifying the cheers. The bulls remain in control and need UTIL above 654.47 to prove they can take stocks higher.

Market bears need either VIX above 13.86 and/or GTX under 2248. If either parameter turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX is trading under 2199 heading lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Bears need one of these two parameters to flip bearish to prove that they can take the stock market lower.

For the SPX beginning at 2199, the bulls need to push above 2214 to accelerate a multi-handle up move to 2220 and new all-time records. The bears need to push under 2199 to accelerate the downside. S&P futures are flat about 45 minutes before the opening bell. A move through 2200-2213 is sideways action for Thursday. Bulls need stronger utilities while bears need higher volatility and lower commodities. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

12/4/16; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/16; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +66; signal line is +53
11/30/16; 9:36 AM EST = +66; signal line is +51
11/29/16; 3:59 PM EST = +68; signal line is +50

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a very active day for the algorithm the most active in quite some time. Note how UTIL launched to test the UTIL 654.47 area and battled there all day; Keybot called out the exact level before it happened. This level remains key. It is not a mystery. The algorithm tracks the 50-week MA with UTIL which is currently 654.47 and price is at 654.54 seven cents above this bull-bear line in the sand creating lift in the broad stock market.

Bulls need UTIL to remain above 654.47 and head higher to prove that stocks can rally. If GTX moves above 2248, the bulls will receive more upside fuel for the stock market. The bears need to push UTIL under 654.47 and this will create weakness in the stock market. The bears will create significant downside selling if the VIX moves above 13.85.

For the SPX starting at 2205, the bulls need to move above 2210 and bingo, price pops to the all-time highs at 2213 in a heartbeat, and then higher. The bears need to push under 2198 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2199-2209 is sideways action for Wednesday.

If UTIL moves under 654.47 and VIX above 13.85, Keybot wil llikely flip short. Also, if UTIL maintains the jogging behavior where price oscillates above and below 654.47 two or three times on Wednesday, this behavior may hint that the algo may go short if SPX drops under 2198. Watch UTIL 654.47 at the opening bell since it will tell you the market direction story.

12/4/16; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/16; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/16; 3:59 PM EST = +68; signal line is +50
11/29/16; 3:45 PM EST = +52; signal line is +48
11/29/16; 3:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +47
11/29/16; 3:08 PM EST = +52; signal line is +45
11/29/16; 2:50 PM EST = +68; signal line is +44
11/29/16; 2:12 PM EST = +52; signal line is +42
11/29/16; 10:50 AM EST = +68; signal line is +41
11/29/16; 10:22 AM EST = +52; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Yesterday, you saw utilities jumping higher, commodities remaining elevated and volatility dropping so you knew the bears did not have a lot of oomph despite the stock market selling off. Today, commodities collapse, GTX  falls through the important 2249 level, however, utilities leap higher and UTIL moves above the important 654.40 level. Minutes ago, UTIL falls back down through. The pre-scheduled number also prints so the algo is active on Tuesday morning printing four numbers so far. One number printed yesterday.

Bulls need UTIL back above 654.40 and GTX above 2249 to prove they can take stocks higher. Bears need to keep UTIL under 654.40 and GTX under 2249 while pushing volatility higher. Bears need VIX above 13.85 or they got nothing. As this is typed, UTIL creeps higher again towards 654, VIX is at 13.18 and GTX is at 2212; status quo. UTIL 654.40 is a rudder that is steering the broad stock market's direction. Bulls remain in control but higher volatility will be a game changer thus the caution note is added in the title line.

11/30/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/16; 10:22 AM EST = +52; signal line is +40
11/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +40
11/29/16; 9:56 AM EST = +67; signal line is +38
11/29/16; 9:36 AM EST = +51; signal line is +37
11/28/16; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +35
11/27/16; 7:00 PM EST = +51; signal line is +34

Sunday, November 27, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. The Trump Rally has created parabolic moves in the major indexes. Market bulls need higher commodities and utilities to keep the party going. Bears need  higher volatility.

Watch GTX 2249. Price collapsed down through on Friday and it was surprising to see the up day in stocks. The 'day after Thanksgiving' positive seasonality, where that day is the most up day of the entire year, won out instead. GTX is at 2234 so the expectation would be for stocks to soften. Bulls need to push GTX above 2249 to prove that stocks will continue higher, if not, equities will likely become soggy. Bulls can also achieve more upside juice for the stock market if UTIL moves above 653; this would be a big deal. If UTIL stays below 653, it remains an ominous indicator for the intermediate term ahead.

The market bears need higher volatility. The low VIX slaps the bears around each day. Slap, slap. The stock market will weaken and sell off if VIX moves above 13.85. Overall, the bulls remain in good shape. Even if VIX fails, the algo will likely remain long. Watch for any joggy price action at the GTX 2249 and VIX 13.85 levels. If price moves across these key levels, then back to the other side, then back again, etc.... This behavior would hint that the algorithm is sensing a move to the short side on the come.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 2213, the highest level in all-time history, the bulls need any smidge of green in the overnight S&P futures and price will jump several handles after the opening bell towards 2220 printing more record highs. The bears need to push under 2206 to quickly accelerate the downside to a test of the psychological 2200 level. A move through 2207-2212 is sideways action to begin the week. This is a tight 5-point range so instead price will likely seek to exit one side or the other.

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week one each on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. The EOM (end-of-month) is Wednesday. The bulls remain in control.

12/4/16; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/16; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/16; 7:00 PM EST = +51; signal line is +34
11/25/16; 11:19 AM EST = +51; signal line is +33
11/23/16; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +32

Friday, November 25, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The shortened Friday trading session is set to begin in about three hours. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 33 points above the signal line. The market bulls need higher utility stocks (UTIL above 653) to keep the upside rally going. The bears need higher volatility (VIX above 13.85) and lower commodities (GTX under 2249) to send stocks lower.

Note how GTX came down to test the 2250-ish level called out by the algorithm on both Tuesday and Wednesday but it would not fail. The bulls slapped the bears. Slap, slap. If volatility or commodities turn bearish, you will know the upside equity rally is over. If both turn bearish, the bears will begin growling strongly with stocks falling in earnest. If stocks pull back due to one of the two parameters turning bearish, but then the parameter recovers back to the bull side, then stocks would resume the uptrend.

For the SPX starting Friday at 2205, the bulls need any smidge of positivity in the S&P futures and price will accelerate several handles higher after the opening bell to new all-time highs. S&P futures are +3 as this message is typed. The bears need to push the SPX below 2195 to regain their mojo. A move through 2196-2204 is sideways action.

Today (day after Thanksgiving) is an extremely bullish day for stocks over the last few decades so it will be interesting to see if the Trump Rally can continue with the help of the positive seasonality, or not. Stocks have rallied since 11/7/16; a day before the US presidential election. The stock market closes at 1 PM EST (6 PM London) and full trading sessions begin again on Monday.

11/27/16; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/16; 10:00 AM EST = +65; signal line is +32
11/21/16; 10:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +30

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long printing one number thus far this week. The bulls are firmly in charge with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. The SPX (S&P 500) moves above 2200 and the INDU and DJI (Dow Jones Industrials) move above 19K for the first time in history. Retail stocks move higher, volatility moves lower, and commodities, GTX, launch higher providing three slaps to the bear's faces. GTX moves above 2249 creating upside fuel for the broad market.

Bulls need higher utilities (UTIL above 652) to keep floating stocks higher. Bears need GTX under 2248.60 and/or VIX above 13.85 to prove they got the beans to take the stock market lower. Stocks will float along sideways to sideways higher if VIX remains below 13.85 and GTX above 2249. VIX is currently printing at 12.72 and GTX is at 2255 at 12:45 PM EST, Tuesday, 11/22/16. The bulls will coast along without a care in the world unless volatility rises or commodities drop.

11/27/16; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/16; 10:00 AM EST =
11/21/16; 10:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +30
11/20/16; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +28

Sunday, November 20, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo did not print any numbers on Friday. The bulls win with lower volatility and higher retail stocks. Bears need VIX above 13.88 and/or RTH under 76.60 to create downside in stocks. Bulls need stronger commodities and utilities to create further upside; watch GTX 2250 and UTIL 651.

The bulls are in control with the S&P 500 knocking on the door of new all-time record highs. For the SPX starting at 2182 on Monday, the bulls need to touch the 2190 handle and bingo, trumpets will sound as the S&P 500 rockets to new highs accelerating towards 2200 like a madman. The bears need to push below 2180 to accelerate the downside quickly into the 2170's. A move through 2181-2189 is sideways action to begin the week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday. The market bears need VIX above 13.88 or they got nothing. Stocks will float higher if VIX maintains a 12-handle.

11/27/16; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/16; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/16; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +28
11/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27

Thursday, November 17, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Trump Rally continues. Volatility drops, retail stocks pop, and the bulls celebrate with higher stocks. The algo number is 21 points above the signal line. The market bears need the VIX above 13.89 or they got nothing. If volatility moves higher, that would warrant caution, and if the RTH moves below 76.6 that would put the imminent turn in play and if these two parameters turn bearish and the SPX drops under 2177, Keybot will likely flip short.

More retail earnings are on tap Friday morning which will influence RTH. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST and will provide insight on market direction ahead. Bulls need higher commodities and utilities to create more upside in equities. Watch GTX 2250 and UTIL 651.

The SPX is on the verge of new all-time record highs only 3 points away. The SPX begins Friday at 2187 and bulls only need one point higher to 2188 and the upside will accelerate printing the new all-time highs. The bears need to push under 2177 to regain their rmojo. A move through 2178-2187 is sideways action to end the week.

11/20/16; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +27
11/16/16; 2:12 PM EST = +48; signal line is +25
11/16/16; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
11/15/16; 1:17 PM EST = +48; signal line is +23

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. You saw volatility drop and retail stocks pop as per the previous levels listed so you knew the bulls would win the day yesterday. The bulls are in charge with the algo number comfortably above the signal line by 25 points.

The bulls need GTX above 2250 and/or UTIL above 651 to create more stock market upside. Both of these tasks currently appear difficult but the Trump Rally keeps pumping stocks higher. The bears need the VIX to move above 13.89 (currently trading at 13.68) and/or RTH under 76.53 (now at 76.69). Either parameter will create market weakness. If both volatility and retail stocks turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2166, Keybot may flip short.

The SPX begins Wednesday at 2180. The bulls need to touch the 2181 handle, only one point higher, and bingo, the upside will accelerate several quick handles. The bears need to push below 2166 to regain their mojo. S&P futures are down 2 points four hours before Wednesday's opening bell for the regular session. A move through 2167-2180 is sideways action for the SPX on Wednesday.

11/20/16; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
11/15/16; 1:17 PM EST = +48; signal line is +23
11/15/16; 12:37 PM EST = +32; signal line is +22
11/15/16; 11:01 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/15/16; 10:16 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19
11/14/16; 2:25 PM EST = +18; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long