Sunday, November 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Monday session. The couple-week and more battle between volatility and copper continues and will determine market direction ahead. Bulls need JJC above 36.98. Bears need VIX above 14.34. Last Wednesday and Thursday the bears threatened with higher volatility then folded like a cheap suit. On Friday, copper launched higher and it looked like the bulls were golden but they slipped on a banana peel as copper retreated. Neither side wants the ball so equities float sideways with an upward bias. One or the other will flinch and provide the market answer ahead.

For the SPX starting at 2064, the bulls need over 7 points higher, to punch up through 2071.50, to create an upside acceleration that will target 2080. The bears need to push under 2057, about 7 points lower, to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2058-2071 is sideways action for Monday. The bulls are driving the bus. Watch copper trading overnight. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week. Thanksgiving is Thursday and markets are closed. Friday is a half-day session and EOM. November began at 2018.

11/30/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/26/14; 10:00 AM EST =
11/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +50
11/21/14; 11:01 AM EST = +61; signal line is +50

Friday, November 21, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the ECB and PBOC central banker's pump global stock markets higher. Copper leaps higher but runs out of gas and returns to the bear camp with JJC under 36.99. The last two days the bears were threatening with higher volatility but ran out of gas and now the bulls are flexing their muscles but did not eat enough Wheaties. So the beat goes on.

The fight continues between volatility and copper that the algo considers the key two parameters affecting market direction for over two weeks time. Watch VIX 14.36 and JJC 36.99. One of them will flinch. The bulls continue driving the bus. Bears would need VIX above 14.36 and SPX under 2040.50 to likely flip the model to the short side.

VIX is at 13.51. SPX is at 2060. JJC is at 36.66. There is about one hour of trading remaining in the week.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/14; 11:01 AM EST = +61; signal line is +50
11/21/14; 10:24 AM EST = +77; signal line is +50
11/20/14; 9:36 AM EST = +61; signal line is +49

Thursday, November 20, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The algo continues to fixate on volatility and copper. One of them is going to flinch dictating the path ahead. Bulls need higher copper. Bears need higher volatility. Bears need VIX above 14.36 to create market selling and if SPX drops under 2040.50, Keybot will likely flip short. Bulls need JJC above 36.95 to signal another leg higher for equities. Status quo will create sideways action with a slight upward bias floating into the weekend.

For the SPX starting at 2053, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 2054 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 2060. Bears need to push under 2040.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2041-2053 is sideways action to end the week. The bulls are in control but the bears are knocking on the door.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/20/14; 9:54 AM EST = +61; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Thursday session is well underway. Today is a repeat of yesterday. The VIX leaps above 14.37 creating the market selling. The SPX comes down to the 2040.50 called out last evening and bounces exactly from SPX 2040.49. The VIX then collapses under 14.37 creating bull fuel so the fix is in and the bears are punched in the face again. The bears have tried to stop the rally for two consecutive days but are not yet successful. VIX is down to 13.70.

Same scenario is in play. Bears need VIX above 14.37 to create market selling and if SPX drops under 2040.50, Keybot will likely flip short. Bulls need JJC above 36.93 to signal more market upside, however, copper is weak today. Even though the bulls are preventing the bears from creating extended downside the bulls cannot gain upside traction unless copper moves strongly higher so the standoff continues. Bears got nothing unless they push volatility higher.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/20/14; 9:54 AM EST = +61; signal line is +49
11/20/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
11/19/14; 1:04 PM EST = +61; signal line is +49

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears did not have enough juice to flip Keybot short today although they were only a few minutes from their goal. At 1 PM, the VIX dropped under 14.37 so the fix was in and the bulls slapped the bears in the face. Note how price pivoted around VIX 14.37 in the afternoon first dropping to this level and bouncing, then moving sideways and retesting, resulting in failure, then coming back up for a back kiss resulting in failure again. It is always amazing to see Keybot call out these exact numbers before they occur.

Same set up for Thursday; the fight between volatility and copper continues. Bulls need JJC 36.95 to create another leg higher for stocks. Bears need VIX above 14.37 to stop the rally and lock-in selling. If VIX moves above 14.37 and SPX under 2040.50, Keybot will likely flip short. If JJC and VIX remain status quo, equities will stumble sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2049, the bulls need to push above 2052 to create an upside acceleration towards 2060. The bears need to push under 2040.50 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2041-2051 is sideways action for Thursday. The bulls remain in control but the bears finally show signs of life after the one-month beating. Bears need higher volatility or they got nothing.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/19/14; 1:04 PM EST = +61; signal line is +49
11/19/14; 10:10 AM EST = +47; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is below the signal line so the algo wants to go short but internal programming rules are not yet latched to permit the flip to the short side. VIX is above 14.37 which creates the market weakness today. Bears need the SPX to print below 2040.37 and hold it completely under here for at least five or more minutes for Keybot to flip short. This target number may ratchet further down as the day proceeds if the moves lower keep resulting in the model not flipping short.

For now, bears are very close to taking control but they need the SPX to drop a little bit further. The market bulls need to push VIX below 14.37 to create stock market upside and negate the threat of Keybot flipping short. The SPX is drifting higher off the intraday lows now printing 2043.28 and VIX is 14.67.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/19/14; 10:10 AM EST = +47; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
11/19/14; 9:00 AM EST = +61; signal line is +48
11/17/14; 12:13 PM EST = +61; signal line is +47

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Wednesday session. The algo is idling along and remains set up the same way as the previous day. The fight between volatility and copper continues. If VIX moves above 14.37 and the SPX moves under 2041.50, Keybot will likely flip short ending the one month rally. Stock market bulls will be fine if they keep VIX under 14.37. Bulls will confirm another leg of upside in equities if JJC moves above 36.88. Equities will continue the sideways flat path with an upward bias if VIX stays under 14.37 and JJC under 36.88.

For the SPX starting at 2052, another all-time record high, the bulls need 4 points, to push above 2056, and an upside acceleration will occur with price running to 2060. The bears need to push under 2041.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2042-2055 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bulls are in control but a simple move higher in volatility can change the landscape in the bears favor very quickly. Market bears need higher volatility or they got nothing.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/19/14; 9:00 AM EST =
11/17/14; 12:13 PM EST = +61; signal line is +47
11/17/14; 11:34 AM EST = +47; signal line is +45

Monday, November 17, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Tuesday session. The fight between volatility and copper continues. If VIX moves above 14.37 and the SPX moves under 2034.50, Keybot will likely flip short ending the one month rally. Stock market bulls will be fine if they keep VIX under 14.37. Bulls will confirm another leg of upside in equities if JJC moves above 36.97. Equities will continue the sideways flat path if VIX stays under 14.37 and JJC under 36.97.

For the SPX starting at 2041, the bulls only need two points, to push above 2043, and an upside acceleration will occur with price running to 2050. The bears need to push under 2035 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2036-2042 is sideways action.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/19/14; 9:00 AM EST =
11/17/14; 12:13 PM EST = +61; signal line is +47
11/17/14; 11:34 AM EST = +47; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls push volatility lower to prevent the bears from pushing under SPX 2035. The imminent turn notation is back in the title line since the bears are making a run today. If VIX moves back above 14.37 and the SPX moves under 2034.50, Keybot will likely flip short. Stock market bulls will be fine if they keep VIX under 14.37. VIX is currently printing at 14.20.

11/23/14; 7:00 PM EST =
11/19/14; 9:00 AM EST =
11/17/14; 12:13 PM EST = +61; signal line is +47
11/17/14; 11:34 AM EST = +47; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo is active this week out of the gate printing three numbers already. The algo number is only two ticks from the signal line so the caution flag is out. Watch VIX 14.37 as the bull bear line in the sand (not 14.21). The VIX is jogging above and below 14.37. A ceiling is placed in the stock market upside as long as VIX stays above 14.37. Watch JJC 36.98. JJC is down a nickel today remaining in the bear camp at 36.70 so the bulls cannot receive any help from copper. The bears are flexing their muscles with the higher volatility. The SPX is testing the 2035 support previously mentioned where a downside acceleration should occur if it fails.

11/19/14; 9:00 AM EST =
11/17/14; 11:34 AM EST = +47; signal line is +45
11/17/14; 10:05 AM EST = +61; signal line is +45
11/17/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +43
11/16/14; 7:00 PM EST = +61; signal line is +42