Wednesday, October 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The market bears tried to create softness on Monday but the bulls slapped them across the face once again. Keybot remains pegged at the maximum +100 reading indicating epic and historic stock market action occurring.

The bulls are cruising higher this week with the Dow printing above 23,000 yesterday for the first time in history. The algo is tracking retail stocks and volatility currently. Market bears need either RTH under 80.91 (now at 81.10) and/or VIX above 10.76 (now at 10.15). If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2555, Keybot will likely flip short. If retail stocks remain bullish and volatility remains subdued, the bulls will keep printing new market highs.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in a couple hours time before the opening bell on hump day. The bears can begin a downside move if they can weaken the retail stocks and/or send volatility higher.

10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/18/17; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/17; 1:31 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/16/17; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

Thursday, October 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls keep slapping the bears around day after day. Slap, slap. On Monday, the algo dipped but the model did not flip short; it was a bear trap. The stock market party continues with Keybot pegged to the maximum reading at +100. These are historic and epic markets.

The SPX closes on Wednesday at a new all-time record high at 2555.24. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The algo is most focused on retail stocks and volatility currently. The market bears need either RTH under 80.80 and/or VIX above 10.75 to lock in stock market selling. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2548, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls simply need retail stocks to remain elevated and volatility low and the upside stock market party will continue.

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/9/17; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

Sunday, October 8, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are on a euphoric high with the algo number pinned to the maximum +100 reading. The bears need either lower commodities and copper and/or higher volatility.

Bears need either GTX under 2254, JJC under 33.51 and/or VIX above 10.76. If any one of the three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 2544, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

If commodities and copper remain strong, and volatility low, the bulls will keep slapping the bears silly day after day. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week shortly after the opening bell on Friday the 13th.

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

Thursday, October 5, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market melts-up higher day after day. This is epic and historic stock market action that will be talked about for years to come. The algo does not print any numbers today (Thursday) but prints one number yesterday. The algo is at +100 the maximum possible number. The bullish euphoria is off the charts.

Copper leaps higher. Utilities move higher. Volatility remains low. The bulls slap the bears in the face. Slap, slap. The bears need UTIL under 725.27 to introduce market weakness but this number expires at 4 PM EST Friday and is replaced with 706.91 a far easier number for bulls to beat for all of next week. Everything is going the bulls way.

The bears big hope is likely pinned on volatility. Bears desperately need a higher VIX. The VIX is at 9.19, a plaindrome, and bears need it to move above 10.76 to guarantee stock market selling ahead. If either UTIL moves below 725.27 or VIX above 10.76, either parameter will do, and the SPX moves below 2540, Keybot will likely flip short.

The bulls are singing happy songs showing zero concern for the future since even if a selloff occurs the central bankers will always support higher stock markets forever. Moral hazard. We are witnessing historic market activity in real-time.

The US Monthly Jobs Report drops tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM London; 2:30 PM Central Europe; 9:30 PM Tokyo). Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM EST Friday morning one-half hour before the opening bell.

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =
10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo flipped to the long side on Friday morning and remains there but the algo number is now 2 points below the signal line wanting to flip back to the short side. Utilities, copper and volatility are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Note that Keybot is printing +100 numbers, the maximum possible reading indicating that the stock market bullishness is off the charts.

Bulls need UTIL above 725.27, now at 723.59, to prove there is more upside juice ahead for the stock market. The bears need to push the SPX under 2529 and Keybot will likely flip short. The downside move in stocks will be confirmed if either JJC moves under 33.39, now at 33.58, and/or VIX moves above 10.76, now at 9.51.

So bulls need higher utilities and must prevent the SPX from dropping under 2529. The bears need to send the SPX under 2529 to flip the model short then push copper lower and volatility higher to prove that down is the direction ahead.

On the last trade, both the algo model and actual trading lose -0.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +12.2% this year that is impressive and surprising. The algo program is up about +2% this year and actual trading up about +3%. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY. A 35-day timer expires tomorrow so Keybot will likely flip back to using 2x ETF's when the model flips short.

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =
10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/2/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +85
10/2/17; 3:49 PM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
10/2/17; 10:20 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
10/2/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83
10/2/17; 9:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +82
10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +84; signal line is +82
9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
9/29/17; 9:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82; go long 2511; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)
9/28/17; 10:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short
9/28/17; 9:53 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/28/17; 9:46 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short
9/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/25/17; 12:42 PM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/25/17; 12:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is +81
9/25/17; 10:54 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82; go short 2494; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +11.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.9%)

Monday, October 2, 2017

September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is Available from Amazon; Stock Market Record Highs; SPX 2519; INDU 22420; COMPQ 6498; NDX 6013; RUT 1494; NYA 12209; TRAN 9935; Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria; Puerto Rico Devastated; Mexico Earthquake; Bitcoin 5000+; North Korea Tests H-Bomb; London “Bucket Bomb” Terror Attack; Brent Oil Golden Cross; Apple Unveils iPhone 8 and X (10); German Chancellor Merkel Wins Reelection

The September Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-09 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

September Cover Highlights;
STOCK MARKET RECORD HIGHS
SPX 2519, INDU 22420, COMPQ 6498, NDX 6013, RUT 1494, NYA 12209, TRAN 9935
HURRICANES HARVEY, IRMA, MARIA
PUERTO RICO DEVASTATED
MEXICO EARTHQUAKE
BITCOIN 5000+
NORTH KOREA TESTS H-BOMB
LONDON “BUCKET BOMB” TERROR ATTACK
BRENT OIL GOLDEN CROSS
APPLE UNVEILS IPHONE 8 AND X (10)
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL WINS REELECTION

The September chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major indexes. Bitcoin prints above 5000 but retreats as China places more restrictions on cyber currencies. Brent oil prints a golden cross stock chart pattern indicating more new highs ahead although West Texas Intermediate Crude oil has not printed a golden cross as yet.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with 16 key personnel changes occurring after only eight months an unprecedented revolving door. North Korea tests an H-Bomb that rocks the world. London is hit with another terrorist attack. German Chancellor Merkel is reelected.

Hurricanes slap the Caribbean Islands and United States. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are destroyed. Mexico is hit with a major earthquake.

Appple unveils the new iPhone 8 and X (pronounced 10) models. The iPhone X has a new fancy facial recognition system that failed during the stage presentation. Production problems are occurring with the iPhone X as the facial recognition sensors are not working as well as expected.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The October 2017-10 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 11/4/17.

The very popular Keystone Speculator stock, bond and currency (Forex) charts and technical analysis, Keybot the Quant algorithm status and Keystone the Scribe daily market chronology postings only continue if supported by the 100’s of thousands of international viewers each month. Content is posted in proportion to the support received. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Friday, September 29, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line. All the necessary parameters are not yet latching to permit the move to the long side. If the SPX moves above 2511, starting the day at 2510, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. S&P futures are -1.

The bulls rallied copper yesterday which slapped the bears in the face. Market bears need either JJC under 33.42 and/or VIX above 10.89 and stocks will sell off. Market bulls need higher utility stocks to keep inching the major stock indexes higher.

Watch UTIL 725.27 (utilities) extremely closely today. This number is the key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week so it is important where UTIL ends today in relation to 725.27. UTIL begins the Friday trade at 724 which is bear friendly. Stocks will begin next week on the downside on Monday if UTIL ends today below 725.27. If UTIL ends today above 725.27, that hints that stocks will remain buoyant and rallying higher come Monday.

So bulls need SPX above 2511 and the model will likely flip long. Bulls also need UTIL above 725.27 starting right away and remaining above this level all through next week.

Bears need to prevent SPX 2511 from printing today. Bears also need JJC below 33.42 (copper futures are negative) and VIX above 10.89 to create downside carnage. Bears must keep UTIL below 725.27 and headed lower over  the next six days. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled  number this morning at 10 AM EST. The beat goes on.

10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/28/17; 10:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short
9/28/17; 9:53 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/28/17; 9:46 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short
9/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side with utilities, copper and volatility running the show; mainly copper. Market bears need higher volatility or their goose is cooked. The VIX is trading this morning below 10 which is a slap to the bear's face. Bears need VIX above 10.91 to prove that stocks will sell off going forward.

Market bulls need either JJC above 33.36 and/or UTIL above 737.51. Copper is trading higher this morning so it looks like the other yellow metal is the star attraction today impacting market direction. As long as JJC remains under 33.36, and UTIL under 737.51, it does not matter that stocks rally since they will roll back over to the downside.

If copper (JJC) rallies above 33.36 the bulls are beginning another run higher for stocks. If JJC moves above 33.36 and the SPX moves above 2503, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

Call it a fight between volatility and copper today. Bears win with higher volatility while bulls win with higher copper. Copper futures are currently up +0.8% so that magnitude move in JJC will place price at 33.39 a few pennies on the bull side at the opening bell. The battle is for copper today which will dictate the broad stock market direction. Watch JJC 33.36 it tells you everything you need to know.

10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday morning at SPX 2494 to begin the new week of trading. Utilities, copper and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently. The market bulls need UTIL above 737.51 and/or JJC above 33.37 to  prove that more new all-time highs are on the way for equities. The bears need VIX above 10.91 to guarantee a leg lower in stocks.

On the last trade, the Keybot algo program gains +0.4% while the actual trading catapults +2.7% higher due to the small cap ETF. Keybot exits IWM and enters SH. The S&P 500 is up over +11% this year thus far. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Friday is EOM and EOQ3. The beat goes on. 

10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81
9/25/17; 12:42 PM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/25/17; 12:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is +81
9/25/17; 10:54 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82; go short 2494; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +11.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.9%)
9/25/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
9/24/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +81
9/21/17; 11:15 AM EST = +100; signal line is +80
9/21/17; 9:58 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78
9/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +77
9/20/17; 12:06 PM EST = +84; signal line is +75
9/19/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +72
9/17/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +70
9/15/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +69
9/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68
9/11/17; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +67; go long 2484; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as banks rally placing the final nail in the bear coffin. The Keybot algorithm prints +100 the maximum possible reading for the oscillator. Strike up the band. NYSE floor traders are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again." Sound the Seven Trumpets! The algo has pegged itself at +100 a few times over the last 9 months. The bullishness is at a long-term peak this year.

Bears need higher volatility, VIX above 10.98, and lower banks, XLF under 24.59, and lower copper, JJC under 33.37, or they got nothing. If the three parameters remain bullish, the upside stock market party continues. If any one of the three parameters flips bearish the upside rally in stocks will stall.

The bulls are unstoppable since central bankers keep providing easy money indefinitely. The planet remains awash in liquidity that buys all asset classes pumping bubbles ever higher.

9/15/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68
9/11/17; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +67; go long 2484; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)