Tuesday, December 18, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo becomes more active today printing five numbers including the pre-market pre-scheduled number. The algo number is 25 points below the signal line so the bears are happy and throwing confetti.

You can see the battle at the UTIL 733.60 bull-bear level that is ongoing. Bulls need UTIL above 733.60 while bears are happy with UTIL sitting on the underside.

Bulls need stronger copper but futures collapse -3% today. The bulls are trying to push the semiconductors higher to gain strength from the chips. Bulls need SOX above 1217.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/18; 12:39 PM EST = -36; signal line is -11
12/18/18; 12:24 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10
12/18/18; 11:06 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9
12/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -9
12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -8
12/17/18; 3:29 PM EST = -36; signal line is -7

Monday, December 17, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the bears spank the bulls to begin the new week of trading. Utilities failed. UTIL slips below the critical 733.60 bull-bear line in the sand creating and verifying today's stock market negativity. The bears are cruising along with the algo number 29 points below the signal line. The bulls are begging for mercy but they never showed the bears mercy during the near-one-decade central banker induced stock market rally.

If UTIL moves above 733.60, the stock market selling will stop and prices will stabilize sideways. Bulls still need higher copper; CPER above 17.33.

Bears need UTIL to remain below 733.60 and the stock market mayhem and carnage will continue going forward. If UTIL 709 fails, there is a high probability the stock market will crash. Thus, watch utes and copper the two most important parameters in the stock market currently.

12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/17/18; 3:29 PM EST = -36; signal line is -7
12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

Sunday, December 16, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The algo did not print any numbers last week. Parameters remain very bearish sans utilities. The bears remain in control with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities to continue the downside fun. Bears need UTIL under 733.60 (now up at 758) to create long-term market carnage. The 733.60 number is valid for all of this week and then it will change to 736.88 for all of the following week. Thus, the UTIL 733-737 level can be considered an important support gauntlet into year end. The stock market could potentially crash if this UTIL 733-737 level fails into the new year; especially if UTIL then fails at 708.

Bulls need to keep utes buoyant. It appears, looking at Keybot's data, that copper remains the key for the bulls. Stronger copper will stop the downward slide in stocks. Bulls need CPER above 17.34 (now at 17.22) which will signal that the stock market selling is over. Let's see, that is 12 cents, or a +0.7% increase needed in copper to make the bulls happy. Thus, watch the copper futures overnight to see if the bulls can rally the red metal +0.7%, or not. It will tell you the story for the US stock market on Monday.

If copper turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the upside to be in play and if the SPX would move above 2635, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. Watch to see if copper shines higher, or, if it is tarnished and shunned.

12/23/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

Saturday, December 15, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the whole week goes by without the algorithm printing one number. That is a rarity but it does occur now and then. The market strangeness continues. Friday was a huge flush lower for stocks, however, the utilities remain strongly positive. If this was a long-term downturn, you would expect the utes to be far lower.

The bulls keep trying to push copper higher so they can put a floor in the stock market selling. They only manage to move it sideways.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algorithm idles along all week not yet printing any numbers. The bears remain in control with the algo number 14 points below the signal line.

Copper remains key. Bulls need CPER above 17.34 to prove that they can stop the stock market selling. Copper futures are flat to lower. No, check that. Copper futures turn a hair positive up +0.1% as this message is typed 5-1/2 hours before the Wednesday regular stock market trading session. The bears are growling but S&P futures are starting to receive a bid higher. The beat goes on.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

Sunday, December 9, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bears are in charge with the algo number 14 points below the signal line. Friday was bear carnage.

The bulls are hurting. Bulls will likely try to push copper higher on Monday to try and start a relief rally in the stock market. Bulls need CPER above 17.35 (now at 17.23). Thus, watch the copper futures overnight to see if they are up or down and if up, if they are over +0.7% higher. That will tell you about the stock market direction when Monday begins trading in the regular session. If CPER moves above 17.35, consider the imminent turn to be in play for the algorithm, however, the SPX will likely need a rally above 2708 on Monday to flip long.

Utilities are in the stratosphere. UTIL is at 754. Bears need this to drop to 726.41 any day this week to create further weakness in stocks. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Copper should be key on Monday.

12/16/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5

Saturday, December 8, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the carnage occurs on Wall Street. There is blood in the streets. Two traders, unable to deal with the turmoil, jumped from windows; fortunately they were on the ground floor. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 15 points below the signal line. The algo idles along quietly since Tuesday only printing the two pre-scheduled numbers yesterday morning.

Bulls will likely need stronger copper to stop the stock market selling and begin a relief rally.

Despite the stock market bearishness, it is interesting to see utilities run higher. Bears need weaker utilities if they want to create a sustainable market malaise for many months. The price action in markets is historic. Markets remain erratic and unstable. The S&P 500 is negative on the year.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
12/4/18; 12:11 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a short time ago at SPX 2767. Markets obviously remain erratic and unstable. The bulls were on easy street but the stock market deteriorated after the US-China trade deal is looking like smoke and mirrors. The yield curve is inverting spooking investors. It is one heck of a turnaround.

The banks are in an all-out free fall down -3% as a sector. Utilities catapult higher. The bulls are going to need to push the SPX back above 2752 to steady the ship. Price is at the lows of the day as this message is typed at 1:37 PM EST. The SPX is at 2713 a 77-point drubbing, down -2.8% on the day; a mini-crash.

On the last trade that lasted about a week, the Keybot computer program gains +1.7% and the actual trading gains +3.5%. The S&P 500 benchmark is up +3.5% on the year with only 16 days trading remaining in the year. The algo program is up +7% this year and the actual trading is up over +19%. Keybot is a smart robot. US markets are closed tomorrow for the funeral of former President George HW Bush; Bush 41. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The beat goes on.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/4/18; 12:11 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
12/4/18; 11:32 AM EST = -6; signal line is -6; go short 2767; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +6.8%)(Actual results this trade = +3.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +19.2%)
12/4/18; 11:19 AM EST = +10; signal line is -7
12/4/18; 10:59 AM EST = +26; signal line is -8
12/4/18; 9:58 AM EST = +42; signal line is -9
12/3/18; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is -11
12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15
11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16
11/30/18; 11:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17
11/30/18; 11:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long
11/29/18; 3:11 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18
11/29/18; 2:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks rocket launch higher in the Monday session. The happy talk from the Trump-Xi meeting on the weekend creates an orgy of bullish joy. The algo number spikes to +58 so the bulls are in full control of the markets with the algo number 69 points above the signal line.

Bulls will continue the stock market rally if NYA moves above 12668 (now at 12577). VIX below 15.83 will launch the stock market into the stratosphere.

Bears need the NYA and VIX to remain in the bear camp and at the same time need stronger banks. Bears need XLF below 26.84 (now at 27.14) and a visible leg lower in the stock market will occur. There are a lot of moving parts right now with many parameters in play. The bulls are on easy street cruising down the road with their feet up on the dashboard. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/3/18; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is -11
12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15

Sunday, December 2, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the new week of trading set to begin. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 25 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising. The algo number should jump even higher in the opening minutes of trading Monday morning because UTIL will be above 731.08 an important bull-bear level for the week ahead.

The bulls are on easy street with UTIL above 731.08. Going forward, you can tell that the upside stock market rally has additional legs higher if either SOX moves above 1246 or RTH above 104.26. The upside in equities may stall if the chips and retail stocks do not join the bullish party.

The bears need UTIL to drop below 731, CPER below 17.34, XLF below 26.79 and/or SPX below 2752. There are lots of moving parts in the market right now. The S&P 500 begins at 2760 so pay close attention to that 2752 level; bulls are happy above 2752 while bears will begin growling strongly under 2752.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning. President's Trump and Xi agree to delay further implementation of increased tariffs so the markets should view that positively.

12/9/18; 7:00 PM EST =
12/7/18; 10:00 AM EST =
12/7/18; 9:00 AM EST =
12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is -15
11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16

November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 is Available from Amazon

The November publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 is available from Amazon. The October crash is explained in real-time as it occurs in the 2018-10 publication. November is sideways choppiness with AAPL crashing -18% and oil crashing -22%.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-12 for December is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Tuesday, 1/1/19.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the bulls and bears battle. The algo is tracking copper, utilities and banks. The key SPX 2751-2752 level was breached to the upside. Stock market bulls cheer and throw confetti since this level is the demarcation line between a cyclical bull and cyclical bear market. The fight will likely continue at this level.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 26 points above the signal line. Utilities will likely add more bullish joy on Monday morning. UTIL 731.08 is a key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week and utes are in position to blow up through here on Monday's opening bell.

The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed out. The meeting between President's Trump and Xi begins shortly (Saturday) and the two leaders will either be dancing the tango come later this evening, or, both will be doing the two-step out opposite doors. Obviously, the results of the meeting will move markets on Sunday evening and Monday. November is in the bag. Trading for December begins Monday. The Sunday and end-of-month (EOM) November pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/30/18; 3:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is -16
11/30/18; 11:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17
11/30/18; 11:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long
11/29/18; 3:11 PM EST = -4; signal line is -18
11/29/18; 2:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)

Thursday, November 29, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 2721 on Wednesday at lunch time as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began flapping his dovish wings at New York's Economic Club. Copper and banks sky  rocket higher creating upside euphoria in the stock market. Short covering adds more fuel to the upside bull fire.

The Wednesday rally is the strongest since March. The SPX comes back up to 2743 only 8 points from the very important 2751 bull-bear line in the sand that dictates a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear. If the SPX moves above 2751, the stock market will catapult higher. S&P futures are down -10 about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Thursday regular session.

The bears need weaker copper and banks. Bears need CPER under 17.34 and XLF below 26.80. Either parameter turning bearish will stop the upside rally in equities and place Keybot in position to likely flip back to the short side.

Bulls win big with SPX above 2751. Bears win big with either CPER below 17.34 and/or XLF below 26.80. Copper futures are trading down -0.4%.

On the last trade that lasted about 2-1/2 weeks, the Keybot algo program gains +1.5% and the actual trading is up +2.6%. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's unless a whipsaw occurs. The benchmark S&P 500 is up about +2% this year with only one month of trading remaining. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +5% this year and the actual trading is up +16% this year. That is an excellent yearly return especially in this environment so it would be great if it ended the year at this level.

There are 21 trading days remaining in 2018. November ends tomorrow (EOM). December trading begins on Monday, 12/3/18. SPX 2751 tells the market story regardless of whether you are a short-term trader or long-term investor; it is the demarcation line between bullish glory and bearish misery.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/28/18; 12:09 PM EST = -4; signal line is -19; go long 2721; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +15.7%)
11/28/18; 11:17 AM EST = -20; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains short
11/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/23/18; 12:49 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18
11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
11/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16
11/20/18; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
11/20/18; 10:15 AM EST = -20; signal line is -14
11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 12:36 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10
11/16/18; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9
11/16/18; 10:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 10:01 AM EST = -36; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 9:53 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/16/18; 9:51 AM EST = -4; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4
11/14/18; 10:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3
11/14/18; 10:35 AM EST = -36; signal line is -3
11/14/18; 10:04 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/13/18; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1
11/13/18; 11:42 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 9:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2
11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/12/18; 10:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +1
11/12/18; 9:50 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
11/12/18; 9:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2; go short 2761; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)

Sunday, November 25, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the stock market machinations continue. Copper fell into the bear camp on Friday creating the collapse in equities late in the holiday-shortened session. CPER ends the week at....... wait for it....... wait a little bit longer for it..... a bit longer...... 17.34; the exact number that Keybot called out ahead of time. There is no other Wall Street algorithm that can perform such a feat; Keybot is the best.

The bears are in control. If UTIL loses 706.85 (now at 720), it's Armageddon time. It is the last piece of the puzzle the bears need. You will see ugliness in the stock market that will knock your socks off. The selloff from October to now will look like child's play as equities collapse into free fall if UTIL loses 706.85.

Bulls need copper to jump back into the their camp if they want the market mayhem to stop. Bulls need CPER above 17.35 (now at 17.34) which will immediately halt the stock market selling. Watch the copper futures overnight which will dictate the direction of the stock market on Monday.

Bulls must keep UTIL above 706.85 or it is over for the stock market as mentioned above. For this week, the bulls must push UTIL above 744 to create bullishness in the stock market. That may be a tall order. For the first week in December, the UTIL 731 number will be key for all five of those days a much easier bar for the bulls to climb over. Thus, as the week ahead plays out, watch to see if UTIL wants to migrate higher and move above the 731 a week from now, or not.

Utilities and copper tell the market story to begin the new week of trading. Bears need weaker utilities which will create a potential stock market crash. Bulls need stronger copper and utilities to stop the market selling and create a relief rally.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday. The month ends on Friday (EOM) and December trading begins on Monday 12/3/18. There is 25 trading days remaining in 2018. CPER 17.35 and UTIL 706.83 dictate the path ahead for the stock market this week.

12/2/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -36; signal line is -19
11/23/18; 12:49 PM EST = -36; signal line is -18
11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17

Thursday, November 22, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo came very close to flipping long on Friday, with the SPX coming up to test the 2669 level, that Keybot called out ahead of time, but then price collapsed. Utilities drop creating broad market weakness. Copper rallies creating lift to the markets.

The breakdown in utilities is gravely concerning. UTIL lost the important 723.51 level for this week ending the day at 719. The next key level to watch is UTIL 706.83. This is a trap-door for the stock market. If UTIL 706.83 fails, Armageddon begins. There would be a high likelihood that the stock market may flash crash. At a minimum, the S&P 500 will likely dump 30 handles in a heartbeat. Stock market bears win big if UTIL loses 706.83. Market bulls will recover and start a relief rally if they move UTIL back above 723.51.

Copper is helping the bulls. CPER is above 17.34, however, if CPER loses this level, the stock market will likely fall apart and crumble.

IF CPER loses 17.34 and UTIL loses 706.83, Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight. If both turn bearish you will see carnage in the stock market that will be historic.

If copper remains in the bull camp, and UTIL moves above 723.51, the bulls are going to create a relief rally.

US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving Day feasts. The US stock market trades tomorrow in a shortened session from 9:30 AM EST to 1 PM EST.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Do not forget about the poor and disadvantaged this holiday season.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/18; 10:52 AM EST = -20; signal line is -17
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
11/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears continue to tear away bull flesh this week. The bears are in control with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. Bulls need stronger copper so watch copper trading overnight for a clue on market direction tomorrow (Wednesday). Bulls need CPER above 17.34 and the imminent turn will be in play. If copper turns bullish and the SPX moves above 2669, Keybot will likely flip long.

Bears need to keep copper and banks weak. Also, bears will benefit greatly if they can pull UTIL below 723.51. Stocks will immediately take a leg lower if the utes fail.

Thus, bulls will win with higher copper while bears win with weaker utilities. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow at 10 AM EST. Wednesday is the last full trading day this week. US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and Friday is only a half-session.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the choppy market drama continues. Keybot did not print any numbers on Monday but prints the pre-scheduled number and three others today thus far. The bears are in control with the algo number 4 points below the signal line.

Bulls need stronger copper, CPER above 17.34, to create stock market upside. If copper turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2733, which is a long way higher, Keybot will likely flip long. For now, this week, the bears are running the show.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/18; 12:38 PM EST = -20; signal line is -16
11/20/18; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
11/20/18; 10:15 AM EST = -20; signal line is -14
11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST = -4; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

Monday, November 19, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long as the new week of trading begins. The algo number is 7 points above the signal line so the model wants to flip long but the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move.

If the SPX moves above 2747 (starting the week at 2736), Keybot will likely flip long. S&P futures are -10 about 90 minutes before Monday's opening bell. Bulls will benefit from stronger banks. Bulls need XLF above 26.98 (now at 26.79) which will send the stock market higher.

Bears need weaker copper and utilities. Bears need CPER under 17.32 (now at 17.50) and UTIL under 723.51 (now at 729.43). Either parameter turning bearish will indicate that the bears are going to take the stock market south again.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Wednesday morning. Thanksgiving Day is Thursday in the States so a holiday-shortened trading week begins. US markets will be closed on Thursday and only open for a half-day on Friday. Watch copper, utilities and banks. Copper futures trade down -0.4% so CPER will be moving lower.

11/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/21/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/18; 9:00 AM EST =
11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, November 17, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo was active on Friday printing eight numbers. The algo number is 7 points above the signal line so the model wants to flip to the bull side, however, the internal parameters are not yet fully latched to permit the move.

The SPX begins Monday trading at 2736. If the bulls can find 11 points and push the S&P 500 above 2747, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

You saw the utilities rally on Friday, and also copper, so you knew the bulls had the day in hand. UTIL ends last week at 729 above the 723.51 bull/bear line in the sand in play for the week ahead so the bulls receive upside strength. Bears will growl if UTIL loses 723.51.

Next week can be set up after the Sunday number prints. Utilities, copper and banks are key. Bulls will need stronger banks to kick a relief rally into high gear. Bears need weaker utes and copper to bring on more downside carnage.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/16/18; 3:21 PM EST = -4; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 12:36 PM EST = -20; signal line is -10
11/16/18; 11:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -9
11/16/18; 10:16 AM EST = -20; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 10:01 AM EST = -36; signal line is -6
11/16/18; 9:53 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/16/18; 9:51 AM EST = -4; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
11/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -5
11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4

Friday, November 16, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 32 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Keybot prints five numbers in the Wednesday session but no numbers in the Thursday session.

Utilities fail ushering in more broad stock market weakness. UTIL 728.81 is key this week and price is at 715 creating negativity. For next week, UTIL 723.51 is key replacing the 728.81 so it is an easier bar for the bulls to cross above and create stock market strength. At 4 PM EST today, at the closing bell, when the week ends, note the UTIL price in relation to 723.51 since it will provide information on how the stock market will trade on Monday.

UTIL 707.32 is extremely important. If UTIL loses 707.32, there will be epic stock market carnage ahead. A flash crash of the US stock market will be on the table and at the least, the S&P 500 would be expected to dump about 30 handles in quick order. Stocks will likely drop into free fall. The bulls must hold the UTIL 707.32 support. If the bulls fail, they are toast and investors will be shocked at how fast the stock market collapses. Interestingly, UTIL fell to 710.11 yesterday only 3 points from creating Armageddon, and very few realize the extreme danger.

The bulls need stronger copper, utilities, banks and for the SPX index to get back above 2749, to create stock market upside. Bulls will create a rally for the stock market if CPER moves above 17.32, UTIL above 729, XLF above 26.98 and/or SPX above 2749. Any 1 of the 4 parameters turning bullish will immediately halt the downward slide in the stock market. Any 2 of the 4 parameters turning bullish will create a strong relief rally and set Keybot up for potentially going long. Copper futures are rallying overnight into Friday morning as this message is typed about 6 hours before the opening bell for the US regular trading session.

UTIL 728.81 (723.51 for next week), UTIL 707.32, CPER 17.32 and XLF 26.98 tell the stock market directional story today. Copper futures are up +0.5% so CPER should turn bullish at the opening bell (if the copper rally holds) providing hope for the bulls. Remember, if UTIL 707.32 fails, and the other parameters remain bearish, stock market Armageddon is about to occur.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/14/18; 11:05 AM EST = -36; signal line is -4
11/14/18; 10:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -3
11/14/18; 10:35 AM EST = -36; signal line is -3
11/14/18; 10:04 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo remains active printing six numbers in the Tuesday session. The bears remain in control with the algo number 19 points below the signal line.

Bears need UTIL below 728.81 to create market carnage. Bulls need RTH above 106.38, SPX above 2749.65 and/or XLF above 26.98. The downward bias in the stock market will not stop until one of these three bearish parameters turn positive. Bulls need 2 of the 3 to turn bullish to create a strong relief rally.

Bears need weaker utilities while bulls need stronger retail stocks. The beat goes on.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/13/18; 1:54 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/13/18; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is -1
11/13/18; 11:42 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 9:57 AM EST = -20; signal line is -2
11/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is -2
11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 2761 as markets tanked. The choppy violent price action continues with the VIX around 20 and higher. Banks and retail stocks collapse. Utilizes fail but recover. The key SPX 2749 level fails so it was Goodnight Irene. The move was swift and sudden. The bears are in control with the algo number 19 points under the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities to create more downside carnage. Bears need UTIL under 728.81.

Bulls need SPX above 2749, RTH above 106.38 and/or XLF above 26.98. Any one of the three will immediately stop the stock market downside. 2 of the 3 will create a relief rally. If the stock market rallies, but none of these three parameters move into the bull camp, stocks will stall, roll over and head lower.

The last trade only lasted for three days. The algo was on the long side but stocks collapse on the oil price reversal to the downside. Both the Keybot program and the actual trading lose a percent on the last trade. The S&P 500 benchmark index is up about +3% this year. The actual trading generated by Keybot is up +13% on the year with about 7 weeks remaining in 2018. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The algo flips back into the 2x ETF mode since a 30-day timer expires from the last whipsaw move back on 10/9/18. The choppy action may continue, however (2x ETF's will chew you up in choppy whipsaw price action). Time will tell.

Stay alert for a whipsaw especially if the choppy action continues. SPX 2749 is the most important number that exists in the stock market right now. It separates the cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bull from the cyclical bear. The SPX begins Tuesday at 2726. S&P futures are +11.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/12/18; 3:56 PM EST = -20; signal line is -1
11/12/18; 10:58 AM EST = -4; signal line is +1
11/12/18; 9:50 AM EST = +10; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
11/12/18; 9:49 AM EST = -6; signal line is +2; go short 2761; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.1%)
11/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +3
11/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +3
11/9/18; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3
11/7/18; 12:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 11:05 AM EST = +10; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 10:46 AM EST = +26; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 10:02 AM EST = +10; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3; go long 2783; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +4.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.9%)

Sunday, November 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 23 points above the signal line.

The bears need weaker banks, utilities and retail stocks to verify a downward direction ahead for the stock market. Bears need XLF below 26.98 (now at 27.121) and/or UTIL below 728.81 (now at 738).

Bulls will benefit from stronger copper and lower volatility. Bulls need CPER above 17.40 (now at 16.84). Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Watch the banks. XLF 26.98 will immediately tell you the stock market direction for Monday after the opening bell. The beat goes on.

11/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +3
11/9/18; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3
11/7/18; 12:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +2

Thursday, November 8, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at yesterday's opening bell at SPX 2783. Retail stocks and banks drive the upside gains. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 24 points above the signal line. A huge post-election rally occurs.

The SPX 2753-2758 area is immensely important and separates long-term stock market pleasure from pain. Late Tuesday, the S&P 500 broke up through this range and then never looked back.

Bulls need stronger chips, a higher NYA Index and lower volatility to continue the upside rally. Bulls need SOX above 1280, NYA above 12704 and VIX below 14.80.

Bears need weaker banks and retail stocks. Bears need XLF under 26.98 and RTH under 106.30. If either one turns bearish, the stock market upside will immediately stall. If these two remain bullish, stocks will move sideways with an upward bias.

On the last trade which lasted for about one-month, the Keybot program gains a couple percent. Ditto the actual trading. The actual trading occurring from Keybot is up +14% on the year with about 7 weeks of trading remaining. The S&P 500 benchmark index is up +4.1% on the year. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw behavior that surfaced 28 days ago. 

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow (Friday) morning.

11/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/9/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/18; 12:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 11:05 AM EST = +10; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 10:46 AM EST = +26; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 10:02 AM EST = +10; signal line is +2
11/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +3; go long 2783; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +4.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +13.9%)
11/6/18; 3:58 PM EST = -6; signal line is +2
11/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is +3
11/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is +4
11/2/18; 10:01 AM EST = -4; signal line is +5
11/2/18; 9:42 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
11/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
11/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +7
10/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +8
10/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +9
10/28/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is +10
10/26/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +11
10/23/18; 3:52 PM EST = -20; signal line is +12
10/23/18; 3:39 PM EST = -6; signal line is +14
10/23/18; 10:01 AM EST = -20; signal line is +15
10/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +17
10/21/18; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/19/18; 2:32 PM EST = +24; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
10/17/18; 11:20 AM EST = +8; signal line is +21
10/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/16/18; 10:13 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
10/15/18; 3:08 PM EST = +8; signal line is +26
10/15/18; 2:27 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
10/15/18; 11:10 AM EST = +8; signal line is +28
10/15/18; 10:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +29
10/15/18; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29
10/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +30
10/12/18; 3:01 PM EST = +24; signal line is +31
10/12/18; 1:33 PM EST = +10; signal line is +31
10/12/18; 1:12 PM EST = +24; signal line is +33
10/12/18; 12:32 PM EST = +10; signal line is +34
10/12/18; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +36
10/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +36
10/11/18; 3:50 PM EST = +10; signal line is +37
10/11/18; 3:21 PM EST = +24; signal line is +38
10/11/18; 3:12 PM EST = +10; signal line is +39
10/11/18; 3:03 PM EST = -6; signal line is +41
10/11/18; 2:41 PM EST = +10; signal line is +44
10/11/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +46
10/10/18; 2:46 PM EST = +8; signal line is +47
10/10/18; 1:56 PM EST = +24; signal line is +49
10/10/18; 1:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is +51
10/10/18; 1:05 PM EST = +24; signal line is +53
10/10/18; 11:15 AM EST = +38; signal line is +54
10/10/18; 10:57 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56; go short 2846; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +6.4%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.9%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +11.7%)


Monday, November 5, 2018

October Publication of Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-10 Available from Amazon

The October publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-10 is available from Amazon. The October stock market crash is explained in detail as it occurs in real-time.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 for November is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 12/1/18.

Sunday, November 4, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the wild and volatile market price action continues. Keybot almost flipped long on Friday but equities petered out as the day played out. The algo number is only 8 point below the signal line.

The bears are in the driver's seat with the SPX below 2749 (now at 2723 where the new week of trading will begin). Bulls need SPX above 2749 and each day they fail is another long-term nail in the bull coffin. If SPX moves above 2749, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX then moves above 2756, Keybot will likely flip long.

The bears need weaker utilities and copper to take stocks another leg lower. Bears need UTIL under 721.60 (now at 725) which will create market mayhem. Write the number down since it is applicable for every day this week. If UTIL falls below 709 this week, stocks could go into free fall. Bears will also benefit if CPER drops below 17.37 (now at 17.64).

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday. Bears need lower utilities and copper. Bulls need SPX above the 2749-2756 gauntlet to create a very strong upside relief rally and flip the algo long.

11/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/9/18; 10:00 AM EST =
11/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = -4; signal line is +4
11/2/18; 10:01 AM EST = -4; signal line is +5
11/2/18; 9:42 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
11/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
11/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +7
10/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +8

Thursday, November 1, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short idling along this week without printing any numbers except for two of the three pre-scheduled numbers. The remaining pre-scheduled number prints in the morning. The bears remain in control with the algo number 28 points below the signal line.

The bears will create market carnage if utilities fail. UTIL is at 729 above this week's critical bull-bear line in the sand at 718.20 so utes do not contribute to stock market weakness. For each day next week, UTIL 721.60 is the key bull-bear line in the sand. Thus, at 4 PM tomorrow, watch how UTIL ends the week. If UTIL finishes below 721.60, that tells you that stocks will be weak come Monday morning. If UTIL finishes the week above 721.60, the bulls will keep fighting to send equities higher.

The bulls need a higher SPX Index, higher copper and higher chips. These three will levitate stocks. The SPX is at 2740. The bull-bear line in the sand is SPX 2751 (this number moves higher to 2751 from the 2740 mentioned in the previous message). This is a big-time number perhaps the most important in all the market. SPX 2751 dictates whether the stock market is in a cyclical bull or bear going forward. For now, stocks remain in a cyclical bear market for the weeks and months ahead. Bulls will also receive upside help if CPER moves above 17.38 and/or if SOX regains 1286.

The US Monthly Jobs Report hits in the morning so the markets will be a circus. Simply pay attention to SPX 2751. Bulls win big above but bears continue to rule the markets below.

11/4/18; 7:00 PM EST =
11/2/18; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +8
10/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +9
10/28/18; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is +10