Wednesday, June 20, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short and the algo is very active printing six numbers in the hump day session. The Nazzy indexes and Russell 2000 print new all-time record highs. Ditto FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL and QQQ. The future appears so bright that you have wear shades.

Alas, Keybot remains bearish and the algo number never printed above the signal line on Wednesday. Markets are exhibiting very odd action.

The bulls need either XLF above 27.71 and/or GTX above 2690. If XLF turns bullish and the SPX is printing above 2775, Keybot may flip long. Another possible outcome is that GTX turns bullish but it jogs above and below that key 2690 level a couple of times. If you see this behavior, the algo is likely setting up to flip long.

The stock market bears simply need to keep the banks and commodities bearish. At the same time, bears need to push NYA under 12647 which will flush the stock market lower.

UTIL 691.82 is key for all of next week. UTIL is at 688. Watch this into the Friday close. If UTIL ends the week sub 692, stocks will likely be weak out of the gate on Monday. If UTIL finishes this week above 692, that indicates the bulls will rally the stock market next week.

For Thursday, the bulls need XLF above 27.71 and GTX above 2690 while bears need NYA under 12647. If either XLF or GTX turns bullish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line. The beat goes on.

6/24/18; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/18; 2:20 PM EST = +38; signal line is +54
6/20/18; 2:04 PM EST = +52; signal line is +55
6/20/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
6/20/18; 10:28 AM EST = +24; signal line is +56
6/20/18; 10:01 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
6/20/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56
6/19/18; 10:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT


Keybot the Quant is on the short side since Monday morning from SPX 2758. The drop in banks, commodities and copper create the weakness. It is very surprising that the algo number is a large 32 points below the signal line but the stock market remains buoyant. S&P futures are up +10 as this message is typed about three hours before the opening bell for hump day.

On the last trade, the algo program gains a percent but the actual trading only logs a half-percent gain. Keybot exits SPY and enters SDS. The 35-day timer expires on maintaining single ETF's due to whipsaw market behavior so Keybot is back in the 2x ETF's starting with SDS on the short side. The S&P 500 benchmark is up +3.1% on the year. The algorithm program is up +2.2% on the year. The actual trading implemented by Keybot is up +6.5% this year.

Bears need weaker chips and utilities and higher volatility. Bulls need higher banks, commodities, NYA Index and copper.

If the algo's current status is boiled down to something simple, bears will win with the status quo (again, it is surprising to not see stocks sell off currently) and will create more downside trouble in the stock market if SOX falls below 1374 (now at 1392).

The bulls can stall the downside in stocks if NYA moves above 12647 (now at 12639), GTX above 2689 (now at 2677) and/or XLF above 27.71 (now at 27.35). Any one of these will help the bulls stage a recovery rally and the caution flag will be warranted but overall, at least two of the parameters need to turn bullish to try and create a sustainable rally. The imminent turn notation will be in the title line if two parameters turn bullish.

If all three parameters flip bullish, Keybot will likely flip back into the bull camp. The NYA 12647 bull-bear line in the sand dictates the direction of the stock market in the intermediate term (weeks and months ahead). The beat goes on.

6/24/18; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/18; 10:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +56
6/19/18; 10:40 AM EST = +8; signal line is +57
6/19/18; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +58
6/19/18; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +58
6/18/18; 12:48 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57
6/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57; go short 2758; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +3.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.5%)
6/17/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
6/15/18; 10:59 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
6/15/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/13/18; 3:54 PM EST = +68; signal line is +58
6/13/18; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58
6/13/18; 2:07 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/13/18; 12:56 PM EST = +84; signal line is +57
6/13/18; 11:47 AM EST = +68; signal line is +55
6/13/18; 9:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +55
6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +55
6/6/18; 11:14 AM EST = +68; signal line is +55
6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
6/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/3/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
6/1/18; 2:11 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
6/1/18; 12:17 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2734; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.0%)

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keyot the Quant remains long but wants to flip short. The algo did not print any numbers on Tuesday. The SPX came down to 2740 as the model called out ahead of time and price bounced. The bears could not create failure. Hump day is set up the same. The bears need SPX under the 2738-2740 area and Keybot will likely flip short The S&P 500 begins at 2749.

The bulls need XLF above 27.82 but the banks are subdued and not yet moving higher to provide strength to the stock market. If XLF moves above 27.82, it would be a wild stock market orgy party with traders throwing confetti and drinking liquor. If banks turn bullish, the major stock indexes will be catapulting strongly higher to new all-time record highs.

Bears need to move the SPX below 2740 pronto and then move GTX under 2688 and NYA under 12607 to create additional downside bear fuel and verify the down direction.

6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST =
6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long

Monday, June 4, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to flip back to the short side. The algo number is 4 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the bear camp. If the SPX drops below 2741, Keybot will likely flip short. The bears want a slow move lower on Tuesday; a gap-down move at the opening bell would not help the bear cause.

The bulls simply need stronger banks to move stocks higher. Bulls need XLF above 27.82 and the stock market will catapult higher to Glory. Stronger utes would also create stock market upside. Bulls need UTIL above 685.76.

Bears will seize the day if they can push the SPX under 2740-2741 which will be in concert with banks, utilities, copper, commodities and the NYA index all moving lower. The beat goes on.

6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST =
6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at 2734 on Friday after the jobs report but note that the algorithm wants to flip back to the short side right now with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The model likely wants to see the SPX under 2718 to flip short but the S&P 500 remains well above at 2745.

The market choppiness continues. Watch the banks. The stock market will catapult higher if the XLF moves above 27.82 (now at 27.61). Stocks will stall and likely leak lower if the XLF 27.82 cannot be attained.

Bulls will also benefit from UTIL moving above 685.76 (now at 680). Watch the utes as the week progresses because utilities leaking lower will forecast sickness in the stock market next week especially if UTIL drops below 665.85.

Keybot remains in the single ETF's exiting SH and entering SPY on the last trade. The benchmark SPX is up a coupe percent this year. The Keybot algo is up +1.3% this year. The actual trading is up +6%. The beat goes on. Use XLF 27.82, UTIL 685.76 and JJCTF 34.73 as your guide forward this week. The beat goes on.

6/10/18; 7:00 PM EST =
6/4/18; 10:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
6/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
6/3/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
6/1/18; 2:11 PM EST = +52; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
6/1/18; 12:17 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2734; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.0%)
6/1/18; 12:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
6/1/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +57
6/1/18; 9:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
5/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +38; signal line is +58
5/30/18; 9:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +58
5/30/18; 11:38 AM EST = +52; signal line is +59
5/29/18; 3:59 PM EST = +38; signal line is +60
5/29/18; 1:37 PM EST = +24; signal line is +61
5/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +64
5/29/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +65; go short 2702; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.4%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +7.2%)

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at the opening bell today (Tuesday) at SPX 2702. Banks are bludgeoned so you know the stock market is in trouble. Weakness first showed in the South Korean banks overnight. Volatility also slipped into the bear camp but recovered as the day ended.

Keybot is now on the short side. Bears win big if either VIX moves above 17.10, RTH under 95.47 and/or GTX under 2683.

Bulls will stop the slide lower in stocks if they maintain the VIX below 17.10 and push the NYA Index and copper higher. Bulls need NYA above 12583 and JJCTF above 34.68.

Since the VIX is at 17.02 only pennies below the 17.10 in the bull camp, as volatility goes, the stock market will go inversely.

On the last trade, the algorithm program gains +0.8% and the actual trading gains +0.4%. The SPX benchmark is up +1.1% on the year with the actual trading by the Keybot algo up +7.2%.

Volatility, the VIX, begins trading at 3 AM EST when the European markets open so that will give you an early indication on the hump day trade. The bears are in good shape but they must immediately push the VIX above 17.10 or they will prove that they got nothing.

6/1/18; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/29/18; 3:59 PM EST = +38; signal line is +60
5/29/18; 1:37 PM EST = +24; signal line is +61
5/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +64
5/29/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +65; go short 2702; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +1.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.4%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +7.2%)
5/27/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
5/25/18; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
5/25/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
5/24/18; 3:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66
5/24/18; 2:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64
5/24/18; 12:19 PM EST = +68; signal line is +62
5/24/18; 10:23 AM EST = +52; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
5/24/18; 10:08 AM EST = +68; signal line is +60
5/24/18; 10:01 AM EST = +52; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
5/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
5/21/18; 1:52 PM EST = +84; signal line is +54
5/21/18; 1:37 PM EST = +68; signal line is +51
5/21/18; 12:53 PM EST = +84; signal line is +51
5/21/18; 9:44 AM EST = +68; signal line is +49
5/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +47
5/20/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +44
5/16/18; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
5/15/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
5/14/18; 2:58 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
5/14/18; 2:08 PM EST = +52; signal line is +42
5/14/18; 12:42 PM EST = +68; signal line is +42
5/14/18; 12:26 PM EST = +52; signal line is +41
5/14/18; 11:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +41
5/14/18; 10:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +39
5/14/18; 10:07 AM EST = +68; signal line is +37
5/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +36
5/13/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +33
5/11/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +31
5/11/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +28
5/9/18; 12:37 PM EST = +52; signal line is +27
5/9/18; 11:31 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26
5/9/18; 10:57 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
5/9/18; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +24
5/9/18; 10:07 AM EST = +20; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
5/9/18; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21; go long 2681; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.8%)

Monday, May 28, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short. The algo wants to flip short with the algo number 14 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the short side. US trading resumes tomorrow (Tuesday morning). If the SPX drops below 2715, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. S&P futures are +4 as this message is typed on Monday evening.

Bulls will nullify the bear's attack if either XLF moves above 27.88 and/or if JJCTF moves above 34.75. Either one will place the bulls back in business sendig stocks higher. Both turning bullish will create a new rally in stocks.

Bears need banks and copper to remain in the bear camp while creating weaker utilities and a lower NYA Index. Bears need UTIL under 681.12 and/or NYA under 12569. If one parameter turns bearish, the downside is guaranteed and stocks will begin falling apart. If both flip into the bear camp, the stock market will be selling off in force.

So bulls need higher banks and copper and bears need lower utilities and NYA Index. Since XLF begins at 27.85, only 3 pennies on the bear side, the banks carry the most clout. As the banks go, so goes the stock market.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow at 10 AM, another on Thursday evening and then another on Friday morning. The month of May ends on Thursday (EOM). The bears have the stock market on a silver platter if they want it. Watch the banks and copper overnight.

6/3/18; 7:00 PM EST =
6/1/18; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/18; 10:00 AM EST EOM =
5/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =
5/27/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
5/25/18; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
5/25/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
5/24/18; 3:06 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66
5/24/18; 2:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +64
5/24/18; 12:19 PM EST = +68; signal line is +62
5/24/18; 10:23 AM EST = +52; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
5/24/18; 10:08 AM EST = +68; signal line is +60
5/24/18; 10:01 AM EST = +52; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
5/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57
5/21/18; 1:52 PM EST = +84; signal line is +54
5/21/18; 1:37 PM EST = +68; signal line is +51
5/21/18; 12:53 PM EST = +84; signal line is +51
5/21/18; 9:44 AM EST = +68; signal line is +49
5/21/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +47
5/20/18; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +44
5/16/18; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
5/15/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side. The algo prints 8 numbers in the Monday session. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 9 points above the signal line.

Utilities, copper and banks are the three key parameters currently influencing stock market direction. Utes and copper create negativity while banks create positivity. The bulls need either UTIL above 684.48 and/or JJCTF above 34.80. Either one will prove that the bulls will take stocks higher.

The bears need weaker banks and for the XLF to drop below 27.87. If XLF turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX prints below 2702, Keybot will likely flip short.

Thus, bulls are cheering for stronger utilities and copper while bears hope for weaker banks. Banks, especially Italian banks, are weaker in European trading. Copper futures are up a smidgeon in current trading.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in about an hour. S&P futures are up +2 two hours before the opening bell for the regular trading session.

5/20/18; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
5/15/18; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
5/14/18; 2:58 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
5/14/18; 2:08 PM EST = +52; signal line is +42
5/14/18; 12:42 PM EST = +68; signal line is +42
5/14/18; 12:26 PM EST = +52; signal line is +41
5/14/18; 11:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +41
5/14/18; 10:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +39
5/14/18; 10:07 AM EST = +68; signal line is +37
5/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +36
5/13/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +33
5/11/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +31

Saturday, May 12, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long as the bulls put together a multi-day run higher in the stock market. Copper jumps into the bull camp creating the lift in the Friday session. Most major stock market parameters are bullish. UTIL ends the week at 689 above the key 684 level which will provide lift to stocks on Monday. Bulls next need UTIL above the 717-718 level to signal wild upside for stocks ahead.

Market bears need UTIL under 684.48 pronto. Bears also need JJCTF under 34.80 and XLF under 27.81. Utes, copper and banks determine stock market direction currently. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 37 points above the signal line.

5/20/18; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
5/13/18; 7:00 PM EST =
5/11/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +31
5/11/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +28
5/9/18; 12:37 PM EST = +52; signal line is +27

Friday, May 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the whipsaw activity continues. Banks and copper are key to stock market direction. UTIL 684.48 is a key bull-bear parameter for all of next week so at 4 PM EST today the print for UTIL will tell a lot about Monday trading. UTIL begins today at 688. The beat goes on.

5/20/18; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
5/13/18; 7:00 PM EST =
5/11/18; 10:00 AM EST =
5/9/18; 12:37 PM EST = +52; signal line is +27
5/9/18; 11:31 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26
5/9/18; 10:57 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
5/9/18; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +24
5/9/18; 10:07 AM EST = +20; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
5/9/18; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21; go long 2681; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.8%)
5/8/18; 3:42 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
5/8/18; 10:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is +18
5/8/18; 9:47 AM EST = -10; signal line is +18
5/8/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +19; go short 2667; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -0.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.3%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +7.4%)
5/7/18; 3:59 PM EST = +52; signal line is +20
5/7/18; 3:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +19
5/7/18; 3:39 PM EST = +22; signal line is +18
5/7/18; 3:25 PM EST = +6; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
5/7/18; 3:19 PM EST = +22; signal line is +19
5/7/18; 11:05 AM EST = +52; signal line is +19
5/7/18; 10:42 AM EST = +36; signal line is +19
5/7/18; 10:33 AM EST = +52; signal line is +19
5/7/18; 10:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +19
5/7/18; 9:58 AM EST = +52; signal line is +18
5/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +18
5/6/18; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +18
5/4/18; 3:51 PM EST = +22; signal line is +18
5/4/18; 2:09 PM EST = +36; signal line is +18
5/4/18; 10:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +18
5/4/18; 9:50 AM EST = +6; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
5/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
5/4/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +19
5/3/18; 1:40 PM EST = +22; signal line is +19; go long 2634; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +5.9%)
5/3/18; 12:46 PM EST = +8; signal line is +19
5/3/18; 11:51 AM EST = -8; signal line is +19
5/3/18; 11:31 AM EST = -20; signal line is +20
5/3/18; 11:16 AM EST = -8; signal line is +22
5/3/18; 10:21 AM EST = -22; signal line is +24
5/3/18; 9:41 AM EST = -6; signal line is +27
5/3/18; 9:40 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29
5/2/18; 3:40 PM EST = +22; signal line is +31
5/2/18; 3:09 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
5/1/18; 1:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +33
5/1/18; 11:02 AM EST = +8; signal line is +33; go short 2630; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.7%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +6.7%)
5/1/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
4/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +36; signal line is +35
4/30/18; 9:58 AM EST = +36; signal line is +35
4/30/18; 9:41 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
4/29/18; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 12:52 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 10:32 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/26/18; 3:16 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/26/18; 9:58 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 2654; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -0.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +8.3%)



Sunday, May 6, 2018

April Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-04 is Available from Amazon; Yield Curve Drama; Trade Wars Continue; Earnings Strong but Stocks Soggy; US Dollar Above 92; Euro Under 1.20; Pound Under 1.36; Oil Near 4-Year Highs; FB CEO Zuckerberg on Capitol Hill; Unemployment Rate Prints 3-Handle; Historic Korean Summit; Systems Outages Occurring at Global Stock Exchanges; US and France Strike Syria



The April Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-04 is available through Amazon. The 2018-04 publication describes and explains the stock, bond and currency market drama in detail in real-time.

The May 2018-05 publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 6/2/18.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the market craziness continues. The algo number and signal line are both at +36 so flip a coin. The bulls and bears are in a dead-even tug-o-war for control of the stock market direction.

The market bulls need higher banks and copper either XLF above 27.91 (now at 27.70) and/or JJCTF above 34.92 (now at 34.46). Either one will confirm that the bulls are going to take the stock market higher.

The bears need higher volatility for the VIX to move above 16.04 (now at 15.41). If volatility turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2659, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Bulls need higher banks and copper. Bears need higher volatility. Copper futures trade overnight and the VIX comes on line at 3 AM EST so these two parameters will provide hints on the direction of the stock market for the Monday session before it begins.

Monday is EOM (end-of-month) so a pre-scheduled number will print. Another pre-scheduled number prints Friday morning before the opening bell. The beat goes on.

5/6/18; 7:00 PM EST =
5/4/18; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/18; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 12:52 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long

Saturday, April 28, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long after a wild whipsaw period in markets over the last six trading days. Keybot flipped short on Friday, 4/20/18, then flipped long last Monday, then to the short side on Tuesday, then flipped to the long side on Thursday. That is market craziness. Keybot the Quant is an algorithm designed to take the smoothest path through the year so the activity is testimony to how markets are erratic and unstable.

Humorously, the quant is now long from SPX 2654 which is basically the same as being long from SPX 2645 on 4/10/18. In other words, the algo is in the same place as it was a couple weeks ago without the whipsaws.

On the rapid flips in trades, the algo cycled from SPY into DOG into SPY into RWM into IWM. The benchmark S&P 500 is down a percent on the year. The Keybot algorithm computer program is up +2% on the year. The actual trading, triggered by the algo, is up +8.3% on the year despite the whipsaws. Keybot is in the single ETF's due to the sawtooth market pattern. Any bull or bear in the 2x, and especially 3x ETF's, are getting chewed up and spit out daily. Serves everyone right for whoever is in a 3x ETF; these vehicles should be completely ignored and never played.

There are three parameters most impacting stock market direction currently; financials, copper and volatility. Bulls need higher banks and copper. Bears need higher volatility.

4/30/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/29/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/27/18; 12:52 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 10:32 AM EST = +22; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
4/27/18; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
4/26/18; 3:16 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
4/26/18; 9:58 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34; go long 2654; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -0.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.0%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +8.3%)
4/26/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
4/25/18; 1:36 PM EST = +22; signal line is +32
4/25/18; 9:37 AM EST = +8; signal line is +32
4/24/18; 3:53 PM EST = +22; signal line is +33
4/24/18; 3:38 PM EST = +8; signal line is +33
4/24/18; 3:09 PM EST = +22; signal line is +34
4/24/18; 1:56 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34
4/24/18; 12:45 PM EST = +22; signal line is +36; go short 2647; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.3%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +2.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +8.0%)
4/24/18; 12:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37
4/24/18; 11:18 AM EST = +54; signal line is +37
4/24/18; 11:10 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36
4/24/18; 10:22 AM EST = +54; signal line is +37
4/24/18; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +36
4/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +35
4/23/18; 3:41 PM EST = +38; signal line is +33
4/23/18; 2:56 PM EST = +22; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
4/23/18; 2:10 PM EST = +38; signal line is +32
4/23/18; 1:57 PM EST = +54; signal line is +30
4/23/18; 1:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +28
4/23/18; 12:48 PM EST = +54; signal line is +28
4/23/18; 11:34 AM EST = +68; signal line is +26
4/23/18; 11:14 AM EST = +52; signal line is +25; go long 2682; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.3%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +9.2%)
4/23/18; 10:51 AM EST = +38; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
4/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST = +6; signal line is +20
4/20/18; 3:09 PM EST = +6; signal line is +20; go short 2662; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -0.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.4%)(Actual results this trade = +0.7%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +9.7%)
4/20/18; 2:17 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
4/20/18; 1:33 PM EST = +22; signal line is +19
4/20/18; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
4/20/18; 12:02 PM EST = +22; signal line is +18
4/20/18; 11:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +18
4/20/18; 11:03 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
4/20/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +15
4/19/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +13
4/18/18; 2:20 PM EST = +52; signal line is +12
4/18/18; 1:42 PM EST = +38; signal line is +9
4/18/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +7
4/17/18; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +5
4/17/18; 3:16 PM EST = +52; signal line is +3
4/17/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +1
4/17/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -1
4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3
4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4
4/16/18; 3:41 PM EST = +6; signal line is -6
4/16/18; 3:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -7 but the algorithm remains long
4/16/18; 1:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is -8
4/16/18; 12:14 PM EST = +22; signal line is -9
4/16/18; 10:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is -11
4/16/18; 10:33 AM EST = +22; signal line is -12
4/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 3:07 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 11:31 AM EST = +6; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 11:05 AM EST = -10; signal line is -17
4/13/18; 10:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18
4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -18
4/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +6; signal line is -19
4/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20
4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual trading results for 2018 = +9.0%)

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls push stocks higher. Copper failed at the opening bell but retail stocks rallied nullifying the weakness. Volatility dropped like a stone and the VIX fell through the key 15.66 level which launched the SPX above 2700. The algo number is comfortably 31 points above the signal line with the bulls in firm control.

For the hump day trade, bulls need JJCTF above 34.86 and/or UTIL above 700.74 which will send equities higher. If both turn bullish, the stock market will be in a melt-up.

The market bears need to push the VIX above 15.66 pronto to stop the rally. If the VIX remains below 15.66, the bears are toast. Bears can also benefit if RTH drops below 93.95.

If copper and utilities remain in the bear camp, and volatility and retail stocks remain in the bull camp, stocks will trend choppy sideways with a slight upward bias. One or more of the four parameters will likely flip camps and that will tell you the stock market direction forward.

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/18; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +5
4/17/18; 3:16 PM EST = +52; signal line is +3
4/17/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +1
4/17/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -1
4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3
4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4

Monday, April 16, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the stock market chops along. Keybot is active to begin the week printing eight numbers in the Monday session. The bulls are in charge with the algo number comfortably 26 points above the signal line.

There are many parameters impacting stock market direction currently. Boiling it down as simple as possible, the bulls need lower volatility and higher banks, retail stocks and utilities.

The market bears need weaker copper and semiconductors. Use the bull-bear lines in the sand for the chips at SOX 1331.50 and for copper at JJCTF 34.86 as the key parameters to follow to determine broad stock market direction. SOX begins the Tuesday session at 1332.52 creating stock market bullishness. JJCTF begins at 34.89 only 3 pennies on the bull side.

Bears win big if SOX slips below 1331.50 or if JJCTF falls below 34.86. If semi's or copper climb higher, the stock market is going to rally strongly higher.

Keybot likely needs to see both the chips and copper to fail, and for the SPX to drop below 2665, to flip the model short. If either SOX or JJCTF flip bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be on the table.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week Tuesday (tomorrow) morning. The beat goes on.

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST =
4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4
4/16/18; 3:41 PM EST = +6; signal line is -6
4/16/18; 3:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -7 but the algorithm remains long
4/16/18; 1:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is -8
4/16/18; 12:14 PM EST = +22; signal line is -9
4/16/18; 10:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is -11
4/16/18; 10:33 AM EST = +22; signal line is -12
4/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 3:07 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 11:31 AM EST = +6; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 11:05 AM EST = -10; signal line is -17
4/13/18; 10:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18
4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -18
4/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +6; signal line is -19
4/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20
4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.0%)

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at the opening bell yesterday at SPX 2645. Copper strength and the rally in the NYSE Composite carry stocks higher. The algo number is 26 points above the signal line so the bulls are proud of themselves. S&P futures are down -13 four hours ahead of the US opening bell for the hump day trade.

The bulls are targeting banks and chips to gain more upside strength. Bulls need either XLF above 28.05 (now at 27.73) and/or SOX above 1330 (now at 1315). Either one will supply solid bull fuel creating higher stock prices.

The bears need weaker copper and NYSE Comp. Bears need either JJC under 34.97 (now at 35.45) and/or NYA under 12452 (now at 12566). Either one will supply solid bear fuel creating weaker stock prices. Keybot likely needs to see both parameters turn bearish to place the algo in the position to flip back to the short side. The SPX LOD yesterday is 2635.78 and an important number for today.

The benchmark SPX is down -1.1% on the year. On the last trade, the algo loses one percent with both the algorithm program and the actual trading. The Keybot program is up +3.8% this year and the actual trading is up +9%. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY remaining in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw action in the stock market. The beat goes on.

4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST =
4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.0%)
4/9/18; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -21
4/9/18; 10:57 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains short
4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -20
4/6/18; 1:44 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19
4/6/18; 12:43 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
4/6/18; 12:25 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18; go short 2625; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.9%)