Wednesday, June 12, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control.

6/16/19; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/19; 10:00 AM EST =
6/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = +56; signal line is +4
6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +3
6/7/19; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +2
6/7/19; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is 0
6/4/19; 3:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is -1

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Tuesday at SPX 2788. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell promises easy money forever and the stock market catapults higher. The central bankers are the market. Banks leap higher.

The bulls need to keep XLF above 26.78 (now at 26.89) to keep the upside party going in the stock market. The bears need to push XLF below 26.78 which will immediately stop the stock market rally.

On the last trade, the Keybot program gains +1.5%. The actual trading gains +1.3% and is up over +19% on the year thus far outperforming the SPX; the benchmark S&P 500 is up +11.2% this year. Keybot exits RWM and enters QQQ.

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/19; 10:00 AM EST =
6/4/19; 3:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is -1
6/4/19; 2:13 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1
6/4/19; 2:04 PM EST = +24; signal line is -2
6/4/19; 1:16 PM EST = +8; signal line is -2
6/4/19; 12:53 PM EST = +24; signal line is -3
6/4/19; 12:45 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3
6/4/19; 12:38 PM EST = -6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long
6/4/19; 12:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1
6/4/19; 11:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +1
6/4/19; 11:35 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1; go long 2788; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +11.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.6%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.4%)
6/4/19; 11:32 AM EST = +8; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short
6/4/19; 11:03 AM EST = -6; signal line is +4
6/4/19; 10:46 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
6/4/19; 10:32 AM EST = -6; signal line is +8
6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +10
5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +12
5/31/19; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is +15
5/30/19; 3:51 PM EST = -6; signal line is +17
5/30/19; 3:41 PM EST = -20; signal line is +18
5/29/19; 3:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is +19
5/29/19; 1:53 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21
5/29/19; 1:10 PM EST = -6; signal line is +23
5/29/19; 11:20 AM EST = -20; signal line is +24
5/28/19; 3:59 PM EST = -6; signal line is +27
5/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29
5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is +31
5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32
5/23/19; 2:34 PM EST = -6; signal line is +33
5/23/19; 2:26 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34
5/23/19; 2:13 PM EST = -6; signal line is +35
5/23/19; 1:28 PM EST = +8; signal line is +37
5/23/19; 1:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is +38
5/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +40
5/23/19; 9:30 AM EST = +38; signal line is +41; go short 2829; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.1%)

Monday, June 3, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading begins. The bears are running the show with the algo number 30 points below the signal line. The stock market direction ahead can be boiled down to a battle between the SPX index and utilities.

Bears need UTIL below 760 (now at 784) which will usher in market carnage. If the 760 fails, that is bad enough, but if 742 fails, that opens a potential trap-door for equities and the US stock market may crash.

Bulls must keep UTIL elevated with all their might and at the same time push the SPX index above 2779-2782 as soon as possible (the week begins at 2752) to end the market selling. So bulls need 30 spoo's and S&P futures are trading down -12 about 6-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the US session.

If SPX remains below the key 2779-2782 (creating market weakness), and UTIL remains above 760 (creating market lift), status quo, the stock market will chop sideways with a slight downward bias.

The bulls will prove they can stop the selling and create a rally if they keep utilities elevated, push the SPX above 2779-2782, push NYA above 12470 and push VIX below 14.83. All these parameters directly impact stock market direction. If any one of the SPX, NYA and VIX parameters flip bullish, consider the caution flag out. If 2 of the 3 flip bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for Keybot the Quant.

The VIX begins trading and pops to 19.41. S&P futures -17. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST =
6/7/19; 10:00 AM EST =
6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +10
5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +12

Saturday, June 1, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short printing a couple numbers on Thursday and a couple more on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The bears remain in control with the algo number 32 points below the signal line.

Commodities tank bigtime hinting that a disinflationary and deflationary vibe is in play (think recession). The SPX lost the critical 2779-2782 level so it was lights out. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

The utilities are the last man standing. Bears would be in better shape if the utes rolled over ahead of the broad stock market. Utilities have been soft during the market softness but do not show the weakness expected that would lead to a multi-month decline for the broad stock market. Bears need the utes to collapse asap. Utes are holding up due to the drop in rates.

Bears will need weaker utilities to create market carnage and open the door to a potential crash scenario. Bulls need to keep utes elevated and jam the SPX above the 2779-2782 level as soon as possible. Each hour, each day, the S&P 500 remains below 2779 is another nail in the bull's long-term (weeks and months ahead) coffin.

The SPX loses -6.6% in May. Ouch. What a beating. That's gonna leave a mark.

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +12
5/31/19; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is +15
5/30/19; 3:51 PM EST = -6; signal line is +17
5/30/19; 3:41 PM EST = -20; signal line is +18
5/29/19; 3:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is +19

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and prints four numbers today. The SPX lost the 2781.50 level ushering in market mayhem. At the end of the day, however, the bulls push the SPX to 2783 above the critical 2781.50 bull-bear line in the sand.

The bears need SPX below 2781.50 which will create market carnage. The bulls need stronger commodities, banks and NYA index; GTX above 2539, XLF above 26.92 and NYA above 12473, respectively. If 1 of the 3 flip bullish, the caution flag will be out and if 2 of the 3 turn bullish the imminent turn to the long side notation will be in the title line.

For now, the bears rule the stock market with the algo number 25 points below the signal line. The bulls will recover if they can hold the SPX 2781.50 support. If 2781.50 fails, it is over for the stock market. Note that utilities are in collapse.

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/29/19; 3:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is +19
5/29/19; 1:53 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21
5/29/19; 1:10 PM EST = -6; signal line is +23
5/29/19; 11:20 AM EST = -20; signal line is +24
5/28/19; 3:59 PM EST = -6; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo number turns negative and sits 33 points below the signal line. The NYA index failed into the bear camp during the last few minutes of trading on Tuesday; this is a serious negative stock market development. The NYA must regain the 12473 level (now at 12466) as soon as possible or the stock market will begin falling apart. Watch it at Wednesday's opening bell since it will immediately tell you the mood of the market.

The bears are cruising along after Memorial Day, 4-1/2 hours before the hump day opening bell, with the S&P futures down -19 and the VIX up to 18.57. The bears need the SPX below 2783 which is a major line in the sand for the stock market. If 2783 fails, all hope will be lost for the bulls and the bears will rule with an iron fist going forward. The SPX begins Wednesday at 2802. If the futures play out for the regular session, the S&P 500 would drop to 2783 on the opening bell. How do you like that? There is drama on tap this morning.

The bulls need NYA above 12473, XLF above 26.94 (now at 26.55) and GTX above 2540 (now at 2533); a higher NYSE Composite Index, higher banks and higher commodities, respectively. If any 1 of the 3 flip bullish, the caution flag will be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, the imminent turn to the long side will be in play for Keybot.

For now, the bears are pushing stocks lower and threatening a major stock market failure. NYA 12473 and SPX 2783 tell you everything you need to know about the stock market direction going forward.

Utilities have not failed as yet which hints that the bears may not have the oomph to create market carnage at this time. The utes typically move down coincidentally or before the broad stock market rolls over when a long extended sick market period is on tap. Thus, the bears need the utilities to immediately collapse to signal market carnage ahead. If utes hold up, the SPX may be able to hold the line at 2783 and recover. These scenarios are interesting to ponder but Keybot only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell the story.

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/19; 3:59 PM EST = -6; signal line is +27
5/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29
5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is +31

Sunday, May 26, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side for the start of the four-day holiday-shortened trading week ahead. US markets reopen on Tuesday morning.

The bears need NYA below 12484 (now at 12581) to create stock market carnage.

The bulls need stronger banks and commodities and lower volatility to stop the stock market malaise. Bulls need XLF above 26.97 (now at 26.86), GTX above 2542 (now at 2504) and VIX below 14.80 (now at 15.85), respectively. Any one of the three will immediately halt the stock market selling and require the caution flag in the title line. If 2 of the 3 flip to the bull camp, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be in play; Keybot will be in position to go long. If all 3 flip bullish, the stock market will be catapulting higher on its way to new records.

For now, the bears rule the stock market. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning shortly after trading begins for the shortened week and another number on Friday morning. The EOM occurs on Friday so May's trading ends and June's trading begins on Monday, 6/3/19. The monthly charts will have a new data point cast in concrete on Friday at 4 PM EST. The S&P 500 began the month of May at 2946 and is now at 2864.

The NYA index and banks will tell the story on Tuesday morning. Bears win bigtime if NYA drops below 12484. Bulls win bigtime if XLF moves above 26.97.

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is +31
5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

Saturday, May 25, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the Memorial Day weekend. US stocks do not trade again until Tuesday morning, 5/28/19, at 9:30 AM EST. The quant idled through the Friday session without printing any numbers. The bears remain in control with the algo number 24 points below the signal line.

As mentioned in the previous post, XLF, VIX and GTX remain bearish, and the NYA index bullish, so the stock market chops along with more whipsaw slop. The bulls need stronger banks (XLF) to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. The bears need the NYA index to move lower which will signal major stock market trouble ahead.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

Friday, May 24, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at Thursday's opening bell at SPX 2829. Stocks were in free fall yesterday. Volatility spiked in the early hours painting a bleak picture for the day. The parameters mentioned in the previous post, banks, commodities and the NYA index, all fail, ushering in the broad stock market negativity.

Boiling it down to something simple to watch to gauge market direction, Friday will be a battle between the banks and NYA index. The bears need NYA below 12484 (now at 12525) which will create market carnage. The bulls need XLF above 26.96 (now at 26.65) to stop the downside slide in equities.

The bulls need the VIX below 14.80 (now trading at 15.95) which will stop the stock market selling and begin a big rally. GTX above 2542 (now at 2477) will also create stock market upside. If XLF, VIX or GTX join the bull camp, any one would do, consider the caution flag to be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn back to the long side to be on tap. If NYA fails, it is over for the stock market. If XLF, VIX and GTX remain bearish, and NYA remain bullish, the stock market will chop sideways with an upward bias. S&P futures are up 19 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell. 

In the last trade, that was only a couple days in these whipsaw, choppy markets, the quant program loses -1.1% and the actual trading loses -1.4%. Despite the negativity, the benchmark S&P 500 remains +13% higher on the year. The Keybot the Quant algo actual trading outperforms up +18% on the year thus far. Keybot exits IWM and enters RWM remaining in the 1x non-leveraged ETF's (the quant will remain in 1x ETF mode at least until mid-June due to the whippy, erratic and unstable markets).

Today is the last day of trading in US markets until Tuesday due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32
5/23/19; 2:34 PM EST = -6; signal line is +33
5/23/19; 2:26 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34
5/23/19; 2:13 PM EST = -6; signal line is +35
5/23/19; 1:28 PM EST = +8; signal line is +37
5/23/19; 1:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is +38
5/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +40
5/23/19; 9:30 AM EST = +38; signal line is +41; go short 2829; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.1%)
5/23/19; 3:06 AM EST = +38; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/22/19; 2:29 PM EST = +52; signal line is +40
5/22/19; 12:30 PM EST = +38; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/22/19; 12:01 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38
5/22/19; 10:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36
5/22/19; 10:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
5/22/19; 6:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34
5/22/19; 5:31 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35
5/21/19; 2:40 PM EST = +54; signal line is +37
5/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37; go long 2859; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.5%)

Thursday, May 23, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but champing at the bit to go short. The aglo number is 2 points below the signal line and the quant will likely flip short at Thursday's opening bell if the SPX drops below 2851, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. S&P futures are tanking -20 points and the VIX spikes above 15.80 about 5 hours before the opening bell for the US regular trading session. A lot can happen over the coming hours and President Trump may try to save the stock market with happy trade talk.

The bears will growl if the VIX remains above 14.78. The bears will slash deeper if XLF drops below 26.96 (watch this in the pre-market and at the opening bell since the banks will tell you a lot about stock market direction). The selling will intensify and stocks will be falling like rocks if GTX loses 2545 and/or NYA drops below 12486.

The bulls need to push volatility (VIX below 14.78) lower pronto. The bulls will also benefit and hold off the bears if they can push RTH above 105.50. The beat goes on.

Typically, the stock market floats higher the two days before a three-day holiday weekend but traders are in a bad mood this morning. The US stock market is closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/23/19; 3:06 AM EST = +38; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/22/19; 2:29 PM EST = +52; signal line is +40
5/22/19; 12:30 PM EST = +38; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/22/19; 12:01 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38
5/22/19; 10:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36
5/22/19; 10:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
5/22/19; 6:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34
5/22/19; 5:31 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35
5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull camp at SPX 2859 after this morning's opening bell. The banks create the market joy. Retail stocks then joined the upside party in the afternoon but rolled over. The bulls are in charge again with the algo number 3 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between banks, retail stocks and volatility. Since retail earnings are looking sick afterhours, the banks and volatility should rule the roost and control the broad stock market direction on Wednesday.

The bulls need VIX below 14.78 (now at 14.95) to create strong stock market upside. The VIX came down to kiss this level but could not break through on the first try. There will likely be drama at VIX 14.78 tomorrow. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

The bears need XLF below 26.99 (now at 27.19) to turn the stock market south again and position Keybot for a flip back to the short side. The bears will also benefit if they keep retail stocks weak with RTH below 105.50 (now at 105.23 causing market negativity). If RTH moves above 105.50, the bulls will be singing songs of joy.

Thus, the stock market moves higher if VIX drops below 14.78 and/or RTH above 105.50. The market moves lower if XLF drops below 26.99. If volatility and retail stocks remain bearish, and banks remain bullish, status quo, the stock market will keep chopping sideways. If XLF turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play.

On the last trade, the algo program gains almost a half-percent. The actual trading gains over +1% due to the good fortune of being in a short tech ETF. It just happened to be the next one in the que. Sometimes this stuff can go the other way. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +14% this year and the Keybot the Quant algorithm is outperforming up nearly +20%. Keybot exits PSQ and enters IWM. Banks and volatility are what matters for hump day. The erratic, unstable, whipsaw price action continues.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35
5/21/19; 2:40 PM EST = +54; signal line is +37
5/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37; go long 2859; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.5%)
5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 3:07 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 12:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
5/17/19; 12:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38; go short 2870; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.2%)

Sunday, May 19, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side in these ongoing erratic and choppy markets. The caution flag is out and the imminent turn to the long side would be in play if the XLF moves above 27.01 (now at 26.88). As the banks go, so goes the stock market.

Bulls will also benefit from RTH moving above 105.63 (now at 104.81) and VIX dropping below 15.06 (now at 15.96). If the banks, retail stocks and volatility remain bearish, stocks will sink. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers during the week ahead.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 3:07 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37

Saturday, May 18, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side at SPX 2870 on Friday at munch time. Another day, another whipsaw. The market price action is erratic, unstable and nutso. It is reminiscent of the price behavior in front of the 1987 crash but who knows? Keybot only sees 1's and 0's and the robot flips short again after three key components, volatility, banks and retail stocks, jump into the bear camp.

There are retail earnings on tap next week which will greatly impact the broad stock market direction. The key parameter, however, remains the banks. Watch XLF like a hawk since as the banks go, so goes the market.

Keybot went bonkers on Friday printing 10 numbers a very active day for the algorithm. Some days the quant sits and does nothing and other days it spits out numbers like crazy. The quant did not bite on the downside after Friday's opening bell and then stocks recovered. The bull's had their chests puffed out for the weekend, but alas, the bears came in hard and fast mid-day taking control of the stock market. Note the erratic price action with the algo wanting to then flip back to the long side but ending the week in the bear camp. Flip a coin with this schizophrenic market. If XLF takes out 27.01 (now at 26.88) to the upside, consider the imminent turn to the long (bullish) side to be in play for Keybot.

On the last trade, the algo program and actual trading is flat. The benchmark SPX is up +15% on the year and the actual trading, generated by Keybot, outperforms up +18% in 2019. Keybot exits SH and enters PSQ remaining in the single, non-leveraged, ETF's.

5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/19; 3:07 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37
5/17/19; 12:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
5/17/19; 12:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38; go short 2870; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.2%)
5/17/19; 11:55 AM EST = +38 signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/17/19; 11:35 AM EST = +54 signal line is +40
5/17/19; 11:06 AM EST = +68 signal line is +41
5/17/19; 10:56 AM EST = +54 signal line is +40
5/17/19; 10:54 AM EST = +38 signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/17/19; 10:00 AM EST = +22 signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
5/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = +22 signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
5/16/19; 2:11 PM EST = +38 signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
5/16/19; 10:05 AM EST = +54; signal line is +40; go long 2878; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.5%)

Friday, May 17, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 2878 on Thursday during the big rally. Interestingly, the quant flipped at the same 2878 level two trades ago so consider this number as an important market pivot point. The whipsaw action continues and Keybot is champing at the bit to flip back to the short side again hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The algo number is 3 points below the signal line so the algo wants to go short again but internal programming rules will not yet permit the move.

The bulls could not get volatility low enough to guarantee more market upside so they goosed the banks and retail stocks instead. The retail stocks then rolled over in the afternoon rejoining the bears, hence, the choppy, whippy, sideways market slop continues. This action is chewing up the bulls and the bears. The robot is smart to be in the single ETF's now since the losses are along the same magnitude as the broad stock market moves.

The algo wants to flip short but likely needs to see the SPX below 2856 today. The S&P 500 begins at 2876 so that would be a 20-point drop. S&P futures are down -13 as this is typed a couple hours before the Friday opening bell for the US regular trading session. A gap-down at the opening bell will not benefit the bears; it may delay a move to the short side. Bears would benefit more from a steady gradual down move in the stock market.

The bears will immediately receive downside fuel if the banks fail. Bears need XLF below 27.00 now at 27.06. It is a game of pennies. [XLF is trading down -0.666% to 26.88 in US pre-market trading.]

The bulls need the banks to remain bullish (which does not appear to be on tap). At the same time, they need retail stocks to regain strength. Bulls need RTH above 105.63 (now at 105.22). This will tell you that the bulls will take stocks higher into the weekend. Bulls will benefit greatly, and the upside will be guaranteed, if the VIX drops below 15.06 now at 16.21. The VIX unable to drop below 15.06-15.11 yesterday told the story for today's weakness in the futures.

Thus, bears are rooting for weaker banks and retail stocks and higher volatility while the bulls are cheering for stronger banks and retail stocks and lower volatility. These are the three most important parameters impacting stock market direction today.

On the last trade, that lasted only three days, the algo program and actual trading both lose -1.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +15% on the year and Keybot the Quant algorithm continues to outperform with the actual trading, generated by the quant, up +19%. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY remaining in the single, non-leveraged, ETF's, due to the whipsaw action. The stock market remains erratic and unstable. The beat goes on.

5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/19; 2:11 PM EST = +38 signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
5/16/19; 10:05 AM EST = +54; signal line is +40; go long 2878; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.5%)
5/16/19; 10:01 AM EST = +54 signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
5/16/19; 9:47 AM EST = +38 signal line is +43
5/16/19; 9:00 AM EST = +22 signal line is +45
5/14/19; 3:36 AM EST = +22 signal line is +46
5/14/19; 11:17 AM EST = +38 signal line is +47
5/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +22 signal line is +49
5/13/19; 1:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +51
5/13/19; 1:03 PM EST = -6; signal line is +54
5/13/19; 11:37 AM EST = +8; signal line is +57
5/13/19; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +59; go short 2831; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +20.2%)

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls attempt to stabilize the stock market. The price action is very active although erratic and unstable. The bulls goosed commodities and banks to create the Tuesday upside but the financials ran out of gas and rejoined the bear camp. The bears remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 24 points below the signal line.

Commodities and banks are the two parameters most impacting stock market direction currently. Bears need weaker commodities with GTX moving under 2540 (now at 2559). Bulls need stronger banks with XLF moving above 27.00 (now at 26.89). Since XLF poked above yesterday, watch it closely, it directly tells you if the bulls have the beans to take stocks higher, or not.

Bulls will also benefit from lower volatility and need the VIX below 15.20 (now trading at 17.64). The bulls likely need both higher banks and lower volatility to try and flip the quant long. If either XLF or VIX joins the bull camp, consider the caution flag to be out. If both turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

Note the drop in utilities yesterday the only negative sector on the day. European trading is underway for Wednesday and utilities are smacked hard in early trading. As the short German in the pit helmet would opine on the Laugh-In television comedy show many years ago, "Veeellly interesting."

5/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =
5/14/19; 3:36 AM EST = +22 signal line is +46
5/14/19; 11:17 AM EST = +38 signal line is +47
5/14/19; 9:36 AM EST = +22 signal line is +49
5/13/19; 1:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +51

Monday, May 13, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 2831 after this morning's opening bell. When S&P futures opened down -50 last night at 6 PM EST a bloodbath was on tap. At 3 AM EST, the VIX spikes higher harpooning the bulls. Chips, retail stocks and banks all crash at the opening bell, boom, boom, boom, like dominoes falling. Commodities also turn bearish and ditto the key NYA Index although it jumped back in bed with the bulls before the closing bell.

The also number drops 48 points at the opening bell that is a rarity for the quant. Humorously, the last trade only lasted one big hour from late Friday to Monday's opening bell. President's Trump and Xi are loggerheads over the trade negotiations so down she goes. Who knows, tomorrow they may play nice and stocks may recover.

The whipsaw move triggers a timer in the quant where Keybot exits the 2x leveraged ETF and drops down into the single ETF mode for 35 days. This immediately lowers risk in these choppy, erratic and unstable markets. The 2x ETF's will get beaten up in markets that chop along.

On the last trade, the one-hour trade, the algo program loses -1.6% and the actual trading is slapped -3.3%. The actual trading remains up over +20% on the year versus the benchmark S&P 500 up +13% this year. Keybot exits UWM and enters SH. The bears are steering the ship for a while.

Watch NYA 12491 (now at 12533). If NYA drops below 12491, the stock market will take another big leg lower. The stock market bulls must establish a beach head at NYA 12491 and defend it with all their might. It is big trouble if it ruptures.

Watch SPX 2783 (now at 2812). If SPX drops below 2783, it is lights out for stocks. Currently, this may not be on tap. Note that the utilities are not yet moving down in unison with the stock market. If the drop in stocks was going to be real bigtime, you would expect utes to be collapsing with equities. Keep an eye on utilities. If they remain buoyant, the stock market is likely destined to recover. If the utes collapse over the coming few days, along with stocks, the downside will likely become extremely ugly and become a potential crash scenario.

The bulls must push commodities, retail stocks and banks higher to prove they have the strength to stop the selloff. Bulls need GTX above 2538 (now 2527), RTH above 105.47 (now 103.41) and XLF above 26.96 (now 26.68), respectively. XLF is only about a percent away so pay close attention to the financials on Tuesday. The beat goes on.

5/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =
5/13/19; 1:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +51
5/13/19; 1:03 PM EST = -6; signal line is +54
5/13/19; 11:37 AM EST = +8; signal line is +57
5/13/19; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +59; go short 2831; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.9%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +20.2%)
5/12/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +62
5/10/19; 3:06 PM EST = +70; signal line is +63; go long 2878; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = +4.7%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +23.5%)

Sunday, May 12, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the new week of trading begins. Markets will likely continue moving erratically due to King Donny's ongoing US-China trade deal proclamations.

Bulls need higher copper and lower volatility; CPER above 17.94 (now at 17.36) and VIX below 15.70 (now at 16.04), respectively. If either parameter turns bullish, the stock market will be running higher. Copper futures would need to rally about +3.3% and more for the bulls to declare victory ahead. Volatility only needs to drop about -2.1% to create bullishness in equities; that could happen in a heartbeat.

The bears need lower commodities with GTX moving under 2538.30 (now at 2542.28). If commodities turn bearish, consider the imminent turn back to the short side to be in play. You can see that the bulls are a whisker away from receiving upside fuel if VIX drops below 15.70 and the bears are a hair away from receiving downside fuel if GTX drops 4 bucks. Thus, volatility and commodities tell the market tale to begin the week.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday the other Friday. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so that will immediately provide a heads-up for US trading that follows 6-1/2 hours later. 

5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =
5/12/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +62
5/10/19; 3:06 PM EST = +70; signal line is +63; go long 2878; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = +4.7%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +23.5%)

Saturday, May 11, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday at SPX 2878. President Trump jerks the stock market to and fro with his US-China trade war comments. Retail stocks, chips and commodities all failed on Friday but then recovered as the session played out. Copper, volatility and commodities are the three most important parameters impacting stock market direction currently.

On the last trade which began with the month, the algo gains +1.6% while the actual trading gains nearly +5% benefiting from the QID play that is a 2x ETF moving twice as fast higher when tech stops are dropping. Keybot exits QID and enters UWM a 2x ETF that is long the small caps (caution is warranted since UWM is somewhat thinly traded). After 4-1/2 months this year, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up +15%, the Keybot algo program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the Keybot algo is up a huge +24%.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers in the week ahead one on Thursday the other Friday. Bulls need stronger copper (CPER) and lower volatility (VIX) to take stocks higher while bears need weaker commodities (GTX) to flip the model back to the short side. The beat goes on.

5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/19; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/19; 9:00 AM EST =
5/12/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/10/19; 3:06 PM EST = +70; signal line is +63; go long 2878; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = +4.7%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +23.5%)
5/10/19; 1:26 PM EST = +70; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
5/10/19; 1:11 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
5/10/19; 10:54 AM EST = +38; signal line is +67
5/10/19; 10:46 AM EST = +24; signal line is +69
5/10/19; 10:23 AM EST = +38; signal line is +71
5/10/19; 10:16 AM EST = +54; signal line is +73
5/9/19; 3:30 PM EST = +70; signal line is +74
5/9/19; 2:07 PM EST = +56; signal line is +75
5/9/19; 12:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77
5/9/19; 12:37 PM EST = +56; signal line is +78
5/9/19; 12:24 PM EST = +40; signal line is +79
5/9/19; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +82
5/9/19; 9:44 AM EST = +40; signal line is +84
5/9/19; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +86
5/8/19; 9:54 AM EST = +70; signal line is +87
5/7/19; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +88
5/7/19; 3:35 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89
5/6/19; 2:49 PM EST = +84; signal line is +89
5/6/19; 9:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89
5/6/19; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +89
5/6/19; 3:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
5/5/19; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91
5/3/19; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +90
5/1/19; 3:59 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91; go short 2924; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.8%)

Sunday, May 5, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side heading into the new week of trading. The bears are in control, despite Friday's big rally, with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. Very simply, bears need GTX below 2537 (now at 2573) while bulls need CPER above 18.03 (now at 17.64). Thus, copper futures will need to pop about +2.2% and more to make the bulls happy. Commodities need to drop -1.4% to make the bears happy.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Watch copper and commodities since they are the two parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

5/12/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/19; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91
5/3/19; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +90

Saturday, May 4, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the joyous Friday trading session plays out. Keybot does not print any numbers during the trading day. The stock market bears are in control with the algo number 6 points below the signal line.

The jobs data shows ongoing lackluster wage growth so inflation will not occur and the Federal Reserve can maintain accomodative monetary policy indefinitely. Stocks leap higher.

Copper, however, remains in the bear camp. Commodities remain in the bull camp. This battle will determine who wins next week.

5/5/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/19; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +90

Friday, May 3, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after this morning's jobs report. Equities are in rally mode. The stock market is a battleground between copper and commodities. Bears need GTX under 2538 (now at 2580) to guarantee more downside. Bulls need CPER above 18.03 (now at 17.65) to guarantee market upside ahead. The beat goes on.

5/5/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/19; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +90
5/1/19; 3:59 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91; go short 2924; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.8%)

Thursday, May 2, 2019

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 2924 during the last minute of trading on Wednesday. Isn't that something? The S&P 500 came all the way down to the 2924 that the robot called out before the trading day began. Copper failed ushering in stock market weakness. You saw the red metal sliding away and then it was bludgeoned -4%. CPER failed at the opening bell and is now in the bear camp.

The stock market should remain in a sick malaise, and the topside capped, as long as CPER remains below 18.06 (now at 17.48). Copper futures were down -0.3% an hour ago but are now turning positive about 7 hours before the opening bell for the regular Thursday US trading session. S&P futures are up +3. Bulls have their work cut out for them; they need copper to pop +3.3% and more to gain back the upside trend in equities. In these markets, anything can happen. Bulls will be singing songs of joy if the S&P 500 rallies back to the 2953-2954 area.

Keybot is now tracking volatility and commodities as key parameters most impacting stock market direction. Bears need VIX above 16.47 (now at 14.80) and GTX below 2540 (now at 2605). If either parameter turns bearish, this tells you that the downside coming is real and has legs. If VIX or GTX does not turn bearish, stocks will likely chop sideways.

On the last trade, which only lasted 3 days, the algo program and the actual trading each lose about a half percent. The S&P 500 benchmark index is up +16.6% this year and the actual trading generated by Keybot is up +18.8%. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID remaining in the 2x ETF's. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw move although the bulls will likely need to move the SPX above 2953-2954 to flip Keybot back to the long side. The SPX begins the Thursday trade at 2924.

5/5/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/19; 9:00 AM EST =
5/1/19; 3:59 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91; go short 2924; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +16.6%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.8%)
5/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
4/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +91
4/30/19; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +91
4/29/19; 10:46 AM EST = +100; signal line is +90
4/29/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +90 but algorithm remains long
4/28/19; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91
4/26/19; 3:04 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91; go long 2935; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +17.1%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +10.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.4%)

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. As mentioned in previous post, the bears had it on a silver platter with copper dropping but the bulls came in and pumped copper higher to save the day. Comically, Fed Chairman Powell was probably buying copper futures like a madman. So the stock market holds up and the S&P 500 prints a new all-time closing high at 2945.83. President Trump calls for Fed rate cuts and more easy money (QE) creating an intraday 22-point rally in the SPX.

Copper remains key. Bears need CPER below 18.07 (now at 18.18 only 11 pennies away) which would be a -0.6% drop in the red metal. Copper futures were trading flat but hold on Nellie. Wow. Copper is getting flushed right now down -0.7%; this will help bears.

The imminent turn notation is remaining in the title line. If CPER turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2924 (which would be a 22 point drop off current levels), Keybot will likely flip short. If copper turns bearish, but the SPX does not fall below 2924, a malaise will occur in markets that may then roll over on Thursday. Watch copper.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers yesterday but the algo did not print any numbers based on the price action during the trading session. Keybot remains at the historic +100 level representing uber bullishness in the stock market. The price action is epic. Everyone is on one side of the boat drinking Fed wine partying like its 1999. The Fed decision is this afternoon. The beat goes on.

5/5/19; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/19; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +91
4/30/19; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +91
4/29/19; 10:46 AM EST = +100; signal line is +90

Note Added 8:48 AM EST: Copper drops -1.666% so the bears may want to growl today. S&P futures +9.

Note Added 8:57 AM EST: Copper is slip-sliding away down -1.8%. S&P futures +8.