Wednesday, April 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side with the algo printing only one number thus far this week in addition to the pre-scheduled number yesterday morning. Semiconductors and commodities are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Watch SOX 979.20 now at 976.67 creating bearishness in the stock market. A move above 979.20 verifies that the market bulls are staging a comeback rally.

The bulls will likely need both SOX above 979.20 and the GTX above 2331.20 to flip Keybot long. GTX is at 2327.19 currently. Both the chips and commodities are very near their critical bull-bear lines in the sand so the bulls can create a strong rally if both flip bullish. Consider the imminent turn to be in play and a likely move back to the long side for Keybot if the two parameters flip bullish.

Market bears need to keep SOX below 979.20 and GTX under  2331.20 and they will be fine. If the VIX drops below 12, the stock market will be running strongly higher.

The market bears are in charge with the algo number 29 points below the signal line but SOX and GTX will tell the story today.

4/23/17; 7:00 PM EST =
4/18/17; 11:27 AM EST = +24; signal line is +53
4/18/17; 9:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +54
4/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +55
4/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
4/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side since last Friday morning. The algo continues oscillating from side to side as the sideways chop continues in stocks. Semiconductors have bolted to the forefront as the key parameter for market direction; watch the SOX 983.05 level this week. It failed at the open today (collapsing lower to 969) and has created the bulk of the stock market weakness in the session. Bulls need to push SOX above 983.05 to stop the bleeding. Bears are firmly in the driver's seat with SOX under 983.

On the last trade, the computer model and actual trading are both flat. The SPX benchmark is up +5.3% on the year. The algo is up nearly a percent this year while the actual trading remains negative down -3% so far this year. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ.

The bears are in control with the algo number 18 points below the signal line. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning. Markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday and the Easter weekend.

4/16/17; 7:00 PM EST =
4/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
4/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
4/11/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +56
4/11/17; 9:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +56
4/7/17; 11:30 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56
4/7/17; 11:12 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56
4/7/17; 10:43 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57
4/7/17; 10:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +58; go short 2358; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)
4/7/17; 10:04 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
4/7/17; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains long
4/6/17; 2:52 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
4/6/17; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2363; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.7%)

Thursday, April 6, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side after taking a wild ride the last couple days first flipping long, then whipsawing back to the short side, both occurring on Wednesday, then back to the long side this afternoon. Market bears need lower copper and retail stocks. Bulls need higher banks and commodities and lower volatility to keep the rally alive. The Jobs Report is tomorrow morning. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell.

The whipsaw behavior in the stock market reflects the ongoing bull-bear battle and indecision and the model may flip back to the short side tomorrow. Markets are very unstable and erratic.

Two significant events occur over the last two days. First, a whipsaw move occurs in the same day (Wednesday) which is very rare for the algo this only occurring a couple times before over the last nine years. Second, the algo prints a maximum +100 number which is extremely rare. Remember the +100 prints a few weeks ago which hints that there is something very significant occurring in the stock market. The +100 number only lasted for 26 minutes on Wednesday.

Three quick trades occur over the last couple days. The benchmark SPX index remains up +5.5% this year. The Keybot program is up a percent on the year but the actual trading remains negative down about -3% thus far this year. The whipsaw behavior triggers the algo to use single ETF's for the actual trading rather than double-leveraged ETF's. This will remain in place for about 35 days. The robot is in SPY currently.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =
4/6/17; 2:52 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
4/6/17; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2363; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.7%)
4/6/17; 12:49 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
4/6/17; 12:11 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55
4/6/17; 12:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
4/6/17; 11:41 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56
4/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +58
4/5/17; 3:54 PM EST = +40; signal line is +58
4/5/17; 3:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +60; go short 2357; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.3%)
4/5/17; 10:37 AM EST = +70; signal line is +61
4/5/17; 10:33 AM EST = +86; signal line is +61
4/5/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +61
4/5/17; 9:57 AM EST = +86; signal line is +60
4/5/17; 9:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +60; go long 2369; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.1%)
4/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short
4/4/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60
4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +40; signal line is +61
3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62
3/31/17; 2:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +63
3/31/17; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is +64; go short 2367; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.9%)

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bull-bear battle continues. The algorithm prints one number thus far this week. The algo number is 6 points below the signal line. Bears will be victorious if VIX moves above 11.83 and/or RTH under 78.30. Bulls will rejoice if GTX moves above 2326 and/or XLF moves above 23.90. Thus, market bears need higher volatility and lower retail stocks while the bulls need higher commodities and banks.

The VIX sits at 11.79 essentially at the critical 11.83 bull-bear line in the sand; this 11.79-11.83 range can be considered a pivot point. As volatility goes, the broad stock market will go in the opposite direction.

If either GTX moves above 2326 or XLF above 23.90, either one would do, and the SPX prints above 2361, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The behavior in volatility and in retail stocks will tell a lot about market direction on hump day.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =
4/4/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60
4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +40; signal line is +61
3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62

March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-03 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA & TRAN ALL-Time Highs; SPX 2,400 and INDU (DOW) 21K; Fed Hikes Key Rate 3/15/17; London Terrorist Attack; Netherlands Election; Subprime Car Loans; Westinghouse Bankruptcy; Obamacare Trumps Trumpcare; SNAP, JILL, GOOS & PUMP IPO’s

The March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and WorldEconomics 2017-03 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with more new all-time stock market highs. The one-half of the United States that own stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States struggles through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor in America is the widest in five decades.

March Cover Highlights;
SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA & TRAN ALL-TIME HIGHS
SPX 2,400 AND INDU (DOW) 21K
FED HIKES KEY RATE 3/15/17
LONDON TERRORIST ATTACK
NETHERLANDS ELECTION
SUBPRIME CAR LOANS
WESTINGHOUSE BANKRUPTCY
OBAMACARE TRUMPS TRUMPCARE
SNAP, JILL, GOOS & PUMP IPO’S

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events take place in real-time. You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past event including Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-11), economic data releases, Fed meetings, etc...

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The April 2017-04 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 5/6/17.

Saturday, April 1, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side on Friday at SPX 2367. You saw that XLF was unable to move above the key 23.95 level so you knew that the stock market rally could not receive additional juice. Stocks slump on Friday driven lower by higher volatility and lower copper. The algo flips back to the short side out of the blue like it did late in the Tuesday session when it flipped long. The stock market is sideways choppy.

Copper and volatility are the two key parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that only lasted a couple days, the algo program and actual trading logs marginal gains. The SPX benchmark is up +5.7% this year with the Keybot algo program up +1.8%. Actual trading continues to lag down about one percent thus far this year. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

4/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =
4/7/17; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/17; 3:57 PM EST = +40; signal line is +62
3/31/17; 2:28 PM EST = +56; signal line is +63
3/31/17; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is +64; go short 2367; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.9%)
3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
3/31/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
3/30/17; 3:47 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68
3/30/17; 2:18 PM EST = +86; signal line is +69
3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)

Thursday, March 30, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with markets chopping sideways. The algo did not print any numbers on Wednesday. Market bulls will win big and guarantee far more upside if XLF moves above 23.93. Market bears will stop the relief rally in the stock market by pushing JJC under 30.44, RTH under 78.21 and/or VIX above 11.85. Any one of the three parameters will stop the rally. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling like a rock. If one of these three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2353, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.The beat goes on.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)

Note Added 11:30 AM EST: Stocks are rallying higher with the SPX up 8 points to 2369. The XLF is at 23.89. The algo identifies 23.95 as the key bull-bear line in the sand. So the rally means nothing unless  the banks strengthen and XLF moves above 23.95. The market bulls need another 6 pennies to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. Bears must prevent XLF from printing 23.95 with all their might. XLF moves higher now 23.91, the HOD, .........

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today at SPX 2361. This move came out of the blue. The day started uneventfully but then stocks started ramping higher. You saw the VIX fall through the 11.85 level so you knew the rally was in progress. The bulls then pulled copper and retail stocks into the bull camp to pump the stock market higher.

As always, and especially in these erratic markets, stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side tomorrow. The market bears need either JJC under 30.43, RTH under 78.16 and/or VIX above 11.85 to stop the rally dead in its track. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will begin falling in earnest. All three turning bearish and stocks will sink like a stone.

The bulls need to push the banks higher to firmly establish a solid and sustainable relief rally. Bulls must push XLF above 23.94 to receive more upside juice for equities. If banks remain bearish, and copper, retail stocks and volatility remain bullish, stocks will float along sideways with an upward bias.

For hump day with the SPX starting at 2359, the bulls need to touch the 2364 handle and bingo, the S&P 500 will accelerate higher into the 2370's. The bears need to push below 2338 to accelerate the downside.  A move through 2339-2363 is sideways action.

On the last trade, the algorithm program gains almost +1% and is up +1.5% on the year. The actual trading gains +1.4% but remains negative on the year down -1.5%. The benchmark SPX is up +5.5% this year thus far. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/17; 3:57 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2361; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +5.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = -1.5%)
3/28/17; 11:47 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70
3/28/17; 11:41 AM EST = +38; signal line is +72
3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +73
3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76
3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78
3/21/17; 10:59 AM EST = +38; signal line is +81
3/21/17; 10:20 AM EST = +54; signal line is +83
3/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +84
3/20/17; 3:55 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short
3/20/17; 2:53 PM EST = +70; signal line is +85
3/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short
3/17/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains short
3/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
3/15/17; 11:31 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
3/15/17; 11:12 AM EST = +70; signal line is +88
3/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +88
3/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +88
3/10/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +89
3/7/17; 10:17 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
3/6/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +91
3/6/17; 12:54 PM EST = +70; signal line is +91
3/6/17; 12:07 PM EST = +84; signal line is +92
3/6/17; 11:44 AM EST = +70; signal line is +93
3/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +93
3/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains shortt
3/3/17; 3:35 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains short
3/3/17; 9:59 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93; go short 2379; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as Sonny and Cher sings, 'the beat goes on'. The key metrics impacting market direction right now are volatility, copper and retail stocks. VIX sinks lower to 12.21 and fell to 11.93 a short time ago testing the level that the algorithm called out ahead of time at VIX 11.84-11.93. If VIX drops under 11.84, the market bulls will firmly establish a relief rally for the stock market. Bears will continue to sink the stock market lower if VIX remains above 11.84.

Keybot prints the first pre-scheduled number this week a short time ago. The bears are cruising with the algo number remaining 49 points under the signal line.

VIX comes down 11.94 after this message is typed so the battle rages on. Bears win above VIX 11.84. Bulls win below 11.84.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +73
3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76

Sunday, March 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish heading into the new week of trading. Copper and volatility remain the key drivers of broad stock market direction currently. If JJC moves above 30.45 (now at 30.24) and/or VIX below 11.92 (now at 12.96), a firm bottom will be placed in the stock market and prices will recover. If both turn bullish the relief recovery will be stronger. Overall, the bears remain in full control with the algo number 52 points below the signal line.

For the SPX starting at 2344, the bulls need to push above 2356 to accelerate the way higher. The bears need to push below 2336 to accelerate prices lower. A move through 2337-2355 is sideways action for stocks to begin the week.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. The EOM and EOQ1 occurs on Friday at 4 PM EST. The final monthly and quarterly number is registered by the Sunday, 4/2/17, pre-scheduled number. Bears are cheering for lower copper and higher volatility while bulls cheer for higher copper and lower volatility; both can be monitored in the overnight futures into Monday's opening bell.

4/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +76
3/21/17; 11:10 AM EST = +24; signal line is +78