Tuesday, September 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as banks rally placing the final nail in the bear coffin. The Keybot algorithm prints +100 the maximum possible reading for the oscillator. Strike up the band. NYSE floor traders are singing, "Happy Days Are Here Again." Sound the Seven Trumpets! The algo has pegged itself at +100 a few times over the last 9 months. The bullishness is at a long-term peak this year.

Bears need higher volatility, VIX above 10.98, and lower banks, XLF under 24.59, and lower copper, JJC under 33.37, or they got nothing. If the three parameters remain bullish, the upside stock market party continues. If any one of the three parameters flips bearish the upside rally in stocks will stall.

The bulls are unstoppable since central bankers keep providing easy money indefinitely. The planet remains awash in liquidity that buys all asset classes pumping bubbles ever higher.

9/15/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68
9/11/17; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +67; go long 2484; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side yesterday at SPX 2484. The choppy sideways slop is getting very old. The stock market cannot make up its mind. Volatility drops punching the bears in the face.

Most parameters are on the bullish side with one major exception; banks. Bulls need XLF above 24.59, now at 24.52, only pennies away, and the stock market will rocket launch higher with the SPX on its way to 2500. The S&P 500 printed a new all-time closing high yesterday at 2488.11. The all-time high is 2490.87 from August.

Volatility remains key with the VIX 10.98 as the bull-bear line in the sand. The VIX is at 10.56 as this message is typed Tuesday morning before the opening bell for the regular trading session so the bulls are happy. Higher volatility will stop the stock market rally but will likely not be enough to get the model to flip short. Bears will also need RTH under 80 to gain downside steam.

Banks will tell the story. Bears will fight back if they keep XLF under 24.59. Above 24.59 creates a wild upside stock market party that will be unstoppable. Bears need the VIX above 10.98 and RTH under 80 to restart the stock market downside. 

On the last trade, the algo and actual trading are flat. The benchmark SPX is up +11% this year at the highs for the year. The bulls are unstoppable with the central bankers continuing the never-ending easy money. The world is awash in liquidity and the dough has to go somewhere. Keybot exits DOG and enters IWM.

XLF 24.59 determines if the S&P 500 rallies to 2500, or not. The beat goes on. 

9/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/17; 11:42 AM EST = +84; signal line is +67; go long 2484; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)
9/11/17; 11:07 AM EST = +84; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
9/11/17; 10:42 AM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/11/17; 9:37 AM EST = +84; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
9/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +65; go short 2469; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)

Sunday, September 10, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after flipping to the bear side last week out of the gate after the Labor Day holiday. The algorithm has been champing at the bit since Wednesday to flip back to the long side but the internal parameters will not fully latch so the move is not yet permitted. The SPX price is having trouble moving above the prior day's highs which is a sign of weakness rather than strength. The sideways whipsaw chop in the stock market continues chewing up the bulls and the bears.

Bears will benefit if retail stocks drop. Bears need RTH back under 79.93 asap. Bulls need lower volatility to prove that up is the direction forward for stocks. Bulls need VIX below 10.93 asap.

The algo number is 6 points above the signal line so Keybot wants to flip long. If the SPX moves above 2467 after the opening bell on Monday morning, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The best thing for bulls would be a slow steady increase in the S&P 500 (not a gap-up move). The best thing for bears is weaker retail stocks which will sink the stock market. Either retail stocks or volatility will likely flinch and dictate the direction ahead for the stock market. If retail remains bullish and volatility bearish, stocks will likely continue the sideways choppy slop.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

9/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/15/17; 10:00 AM EST =
9/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
9/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains short
9/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +65; go short 2469; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side after the opening bell at SPX 2469. The wild market action continues. Banks fail and volatility spikes higher right out of the gate to begin the holiday-shortened week.

Retail stocks, banks and volatility dictate stock market direction currently. Market bears will send stocks lower unless the bulls can send either RTH above 79.92, now at 79.75, or XLF above 24.67, now at 24.44, or VIX below 10.92, now at 11.76. Any one of the three turning bullish will stop the market selling. The direction and strength of the stock market can be determined by simply watching these three parameters.

On the last trade that only lasted three trading days, the algo program gains +0.7%. The actual trading gains +0.2% and was screwed by the gap-down move at the open that took away about +0.7% in profits in the couple minutes before the algo flipped short. Keybot exits DIA and enters DOG. The benchmark S&P 500 is up over +10% this year.

9/10/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +65; go short 2469; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +10.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.2%)
9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65
9/1/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +64
9/1/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +63
8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +63
8/31/17; 2:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +62
8/31/17; 1:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +60
8/31/17; 10:01 AM EST = +84; signal line is +58
8/31/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +57
8/30/17; 3:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
8/30/17; 2:40 PM EST = +70; signal line is +56
8/30/17; 1:48 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
8/30/17; 1:04 PM EST = +70; signal line is +56
8/30/17; 10:49 AM EST = +56; signal line is +56; go long 2452; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the holiday-shortened trading week begins in the United States. The bulls are comfortable with the algo number 19 points above the signal line but the caution flag remains out since the stock market remains erratic and unstable.

Market bulls need higher retail stocks, RTH above 79.95, and the upside party will turn into a full-fledged orgy of higher stock prices. Market bears remain in the game if they prevent RTH 79.95 from occurring.

The bears need weaker financials, XLF under 24.67, and higher volatility, VIX above 11.12 and likely need both parameters to turn bearish for the algo to flip short. The imminent turn would be in play if one of the two turn bearish. Stocks should stumble sideways with a slight upward bias if RTH remains bearish and XLF and VIX bullish.

One thing that may occur is the banks may jog above and below the 24.67 line in the sand several times over the coming hours or day or two. If you see this behavior occurring it will likely lead to a failure lower in the stock market. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The beat goes on.

9/10/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65
9/1/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +64

August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is Available from Amazon; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, APPL, MSFT and BSE (India) Record Highs; Hurricane Harvey Slams Texas Oil Refineries; Total Solar Eclipse; Bitcoin 5000; North Korea Turmoil; Trump Threatens NoKo with Fire and Fury; Barcelona Terrorism; USD 91-Handle; Euro 1.20; Jackson Hole; US-China Trade War Simmers; Trump Threatens Government Shutdown; Amazon Food Wars Begin

The August Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-08 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher.

August Cover Highlights;
SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, AAPL, MSFT AND BSE (India) RECORD HIGHS
HURRICANE HARVEY SLAMS TEXAS OIL REFINERIES
TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
BITCOIN 5000
NORTH KOREA TURMOIL
TRUMP THREATENS NOKO WITH FIRE AND FURY
BARCELONA TERRORISM
USD 91-HANDLE; EURO 1.20
JACKSON HOLE
US-CHINA TRADE WAR SIMMERS
TRUMP THREATENS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
AMAZON FOOD WARS BEGIN

The August chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs. India’s BSE Sensex ran above 32K last month into early this month. The Dow Industrials print above 22K in early August another milestone.

The US dollar index and euro print big moves; these currency baskets move inverse to each other. The dollar is sinking so the euro is bouncing. The euro moves briefly above 1.20 with the USD printing lower with a 91-handle. Both the euro and dollar are testing their 200-week MA’s.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with over 15 key personnel changes occurring after only seven months an unprecedented revolving door. Advisors Stephen Bannon and Sebastian Gorka are shown the door in August. The Russia and other investigations continue. President Trump is threatening North Korea with fire and fury unless tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un ceases the missile and nuclear programs. Trump also threatens Congress with a government shutdown unless they include funding for the southern border wall.

US and China keep poking each other in the eye with long sticks as a trade war simmers. Barcelona is rocked by Islamic terrorism. Bitcoin tags 5000 as September begins. Money from China, Japan, India and Turkey chase the digital currency higher. The Jackson Hole Economic Forum takes place in Wyoming but did not live up to its ype. Amazon begins food price wars that rock the grocers and food makers. The epic market action continues as the global central bankers collude daily to maintain elevated stock prices.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The September 2017-09 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 9/30/17.

The Keystone Speculator stock, bond and currency (Forex) charts and technical analysis, Keybot the Quant algorithm status and Keystone the Scribe daily market chronology only continue if supported by the 100’s of thousands of international viewers each month. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Friday, September 1, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side in these erratic choppy markets. Banks remain strong and volatility sinks like stone punching the bears in the face; once in each eye. The low volatility hammers the bears. The algo number is 20 points above the signal line with bulls walking around with their chests puffed out. Keybot prints five numbers yesterday including the pre-scheduled EOM number last evening. The algo prints two pre-scheduled numbers this morning.

Retail stocks are the only major parameter that is bearish creating market negativity. Most everything else, especially banks and the lower volatility, are bullish. Market bulls need higher retail stocks, RTH above 79.95, now at 79.30, to take stocks to the stratosphere.

Market bears need to either push XLF under 24.68, now at 24.88, and/or VIX above 11.14, now at 10.11 to create market negativity. Bears need weaker banks and higher volatility, otherwise, they have no hope. If RTH remains bearish, and XLF and VIX bullish, status quo, the stock market will stagger sideways with a slight upward bias.

US markets are closed on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday. The beat goes on. The caution flag remains out since the markets are unstable and choppy.

9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +64
9/1/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +63
8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +84; signal line is +63
8/31/17; 2:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +62
8/31/17; 1:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +60
8/31/17; 10:01 AM EST = +84; signal line is +58
8/31/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +57
8/30/17; 3:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull side at SPX 2452. The whipsaw moves are getting old. The bulls and bears are in a knock-down drag-out fight for market control. XLF closes exactly on the 24.67 that Keybot called out a head of time. Isn't that impressive? Ditto the VIX that was teasing a close on the 11.14 line in the sand but ended at 11.22 after all the settlements.

The algo number and signal line are the same number proving the bull-bear tug-o-war in progress. The model could very well flip back to the short side tomorrow.

Banks and volatility tell the market story tomorrow. As banks go at the opening bell, so goes the stock market. If XLF drops below 24.67, bears win, above and bulls win. If VIX drops under 11.14, the bulls will be throwing a huge upside stock market party. The bears remain in the game if they can keep the VIX above 11.14 and moving higher.

If XLF drops under 24.67, and the SPX dfrops under 2444, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the market whipsaw choppiness continues. The stock market is erratic and unstable.

On the last whipsaw trade, the algo program lost -0.7%. The SPX did a round trip from the previous trade fro 2452 down to 2434 and now 2434 back up to 2452. The actual tradign lost -1.4% and drops down to up only +1% on the year thus far. Sideways choppy markets with low volatility chews up algorithm programs. The SPX benchmark is up +9.5% this year. Keybot exits PSQ and enters DIA.

Watch the  pivot of XLF 24.67; the banks tell you which way the stock market will move.

9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/17; 3:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
8/30/17; 2:40 PM EST = +70; signal line is +56
8/30/17; 1:48 PM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
8/30/17; 1:04 PM EST = +70; signal line is +56
8/30/17; 10:49 AM EST = +56; signal line is +56; go long 2452; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.0%)
8/30/17; 10:00 AM EST = +56; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
8/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55
8/29/17; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +54
8/29/17; 9:44 AM EST = +24; signal line is +54; go short 2434; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.4%)

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side today and does not print any additional numbers after the 10 AM number. Semi's remain bullish and volatility and banks remain bearish. One of these three will flinch and dictate the direction ahead.

Bears need SOX under 1075.07 (now at 1084.86) to guarantee downside in the stock market. Bulls need either VIX under 11.15 (now at 11.70) and/or XLF above 24.67 (now at 24.57) to guarantee a stock market rally. XLF is only 10 cents from the bull-bear line so any news about the banks overnight will be important.

If XLF moves above 24.67 and the the SPX above 2449, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. But interestingly, if VIX moves under 11.15, that will send stocks higher but will likely not be enough to flip the algorithm long. Thus, if you are bullish the stock market, you had better be praying for the banks.

So hump day will be a battle between chips and banks; bears need lower semi's while bulls need higher financials. Markets are very erratic and unstable. The sideways sawtooth choppy slop continues. The bears are in control with the algo number 15 ponts below the signal line.

8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 2434 as the whipsaw erratic market action continues. The North Korea missile launch causes angst in markets overnight but President Trump's response appears mild so markets are trying to recover. The algo, however, remains short.

Semiconductors, banks and volatility are key parameters most impacting stock market direction. Pay attention to SOX 1075.07 the bull-bear line in the sand. This level failed this morning but price has since recovered. Market bears need SOX under 1075.07 and if this occurs, stocks should begin dropping sharply.

Market bulls need either XLF above 24.65 and/or VIX under 11.18 to stop the market selling and begin a rally higher. The weakness in the banks is hurting the stock market today.

On the last trade, the algorithm program and actual trading each lose -0.7%. The benchmark SPX is up +8.7% on the year. Keybot exits SPY with the minor loss and enters PSQ. The Keybot computer program and the actual trading are each up a couple percent this year.

Bears need SOX 1075.07 to throw confetti. Bulls will celebrate with either XLF 24.65 or VIX 11.18. The algo printed a pre-scheduled number this morning at 10 AM EST and prints another on Friday morning before the opening bell.

SOX is printing at 1080 running higher. XLF is 24.50 moving higher. VIX is 12.33 moving lower. The bulls are trying to stabilize the stock market. Bears need weaker chips but the bulls are goosing the semi's higher.

9/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
9/1/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55
8/29/17; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +54
8/29/17; 9:44 AM EST = +24; signal line is +54; go short 2434; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.4%)
8/29/17; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
8/28/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55
8/27/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/25/17; 2:16 PM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/25/17; 2:02 PM EST = +56; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 1:46 PM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/25/17; 10:48 AM EST = +56; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 10:27 AM EST = +70; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 10:12 AM EST = +84; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 10:07 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52
8/25/17; 9:54 AM EST = +56; signal line is +53
8/25/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54
8/23/17; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +55
8/22/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +57; go long 2452; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.1%)