Tuesday, April 17, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls push stocks higher. Copper failed at the opening bell but retail stocks rallied nullifying the weakness. Volatility dropped like a stone and the VIX fell through the key 15.66 level which launched the SPX above 2700. The algo number is comfortably 31 points above the signal line with the bulls in firm control.

For the hump day trade, bulls need JJCTF above 34.86 and/or UTIL above 700.74 which will send equities higher. If both turn bullish, the stock market will be in a melt-up.

The market bears need to push the VIX above 15.66 pronto to stop the rally. If the VIX remains below 15.66, the bears are toast. Bears can also benefit if RTH drops below 93.95.

If copper and utilities remain in the bear camp, and volatility and retail stocks remain in the bull camp, stocks will trend choppy sideways with a slight upward bias. One or more of the four parameters will likely flip camps and that will tell you the stock market direction forward.

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/18; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +5
4/17/18; 3:16 PM EST = +52; signal line is +3
4/17/18; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +1
4/17/18; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is -1
4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3
4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4

Monday, April 16, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bullish as the stock market chops along. Keybot is active to begin the week printing eight numbers in the Monday session. The bulls are in charge with the algo number comfortably 26 points above the signal line.

There are many parameters impacting stock market direction currently. Boiling it down as simple as possible, the bulls need lower volatility and higher banks, retail stocks and utilities.

The market bears need weaker copper and semiconductors. Use the bull-bear lines in the sand for the chips at SOX 1331.50 and for copper at JJCTF 34.86 as the key parameters to follow to determine broad stock market direction. SOX begins the Tuesday session at 1332.52 creating stock market bullishness. JJCTF begins at 34.89 only 3 pennies on the bull side.

Bears win big if SOX slips below 1331.50 or if JJCTF falls below 34.86. If semi's or copper climb higher, the stock market is going to rally strongly higher.

Keybot likely needs to see both the chips and copper to fail, and for the SPX to drop below 2665, to flip the model short. If either SOX or JJCTF flip bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be on the table.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week Tuesday (tomorrow) morning. The beat goes on.

4/22/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/18; 9:00 AM EST =
4/16/18; 3:48 PM EST = +22; signal line is -4
4/16/18; 3:41 PM EST = +6; signal line is -6
4/16/18; 3:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -7 but the algorithm remains long
4/16/18; 1:21 PM EST = +6; signal line is -8
4/16/18; 12:14 PM EST = +22; signal line is -9
4/16/18; 10:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is -11
4/16/18; 10:33 AM EST = +22; signal line is -12
4/16/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -14
4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 3:07 PM EST = -10; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 11:31 AM EST = +6; signal line is -16
4/13/18; 11:05 AM EST = -10; signal line is -17
4/13/18; 10:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is -17
4/13/18; 10:30 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18
4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -18
4/12/18; 10:06 AM EST = +6; signal line is -19
4/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20
4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.0%)

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at the opening bell yesterday at SPX 2645. Copper strength and the rally in the NYSE Composite carry stocks higher. The algo number is 26 points above the signal line so the bulls are proud of themselves. S&P futures are down -13 four hours ahead of the US opening bell for the hump day trade.

The bulls are targeting banks and chips to gain more upside strength. Bulls need either XLF above 28.05 (now at 27.73) and/or SOX above 1330 (now at 1315). Either one will supply solid bull fuel creating higher stock prices.

The bears need weaker copper and NYSE Comp. Bears need either JJC under 34.97 (now at 35.45) and/or NYA under 12452 (now at 12566). Either one will supply solid bear fuel creating weaker stock prices. Keybot likely needs to see both parameters turn bearish to place the algo in the position to flip back to the short side. The SPX LOD yesterday is 2635.78 and an important number for today.

The benchmark SPX is down -1.1% on the year. On the last trade, the algo loses one percent with both the algorithm program and the actual trading. The Keybot program is up +3.8% this year and the actual trading is up +9%. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY remaining in the single ETF's due to the whipsaw action in the stock market. The beat goes on.

4/15/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/13/18; 10:00 AM EST =
4/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -20; go long 2645; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +3.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.0%)
4/9/18; 3:40 PM EST = -24; signal line is -21
4/9/18; 10:57 AM EST = -10; signal line is -20 but algorithm remains short
4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -20
4/6/18; 1:44 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19
4/6/18; 12:43 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
4/6/18; 12:25 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18; go short 2625; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.9%)

Saturday, April 7, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side during the Friday selloff. You saw the NYA lose the critical 12437 level so you knew stocks were in trouble and falling down the rabbit hole. Stocks may go into a crash if SPX 2581 is lost. Before that, the commodities would likely fail first so watch GTX 2550. Bulls must move NYA above 12437 as quick as possible, otherwise, the stock market will deteriorate. Thus, GTX 2550, SPX 2581 and NYA 12437 dictate stock market direction forward.

On the last trade, a whipsaw occurs so Keybot drops into single ETF mode for at least the next 35 days. Single ETF's reduce risk as compared to 2x ETF's. Sideways whipsaw markets chew up both bulls and bears. The algo loses a half percent on the last trade and the actual trading loss is -1%. The benchmark S&P 500 is down nearly -2% this year. The Keybot algo computer program is up almost +5% and the actual trading is up +10%. It has been an odd year thus far. The beat goes on.

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/6/18; 1:44 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19
4/6/18; 12:43 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains short
4/6/18; 12:25 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18; go short 2625; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +4.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +9.9%)
4/6/18; 9:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -18
4/4/18; 3:27 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18
4/4/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long
4/4/18; 3:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18; go long 2638; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +10.9%)

Thursday, April 5, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Wednesday afternoon at SPX 2638. The algo did not print any numbers today. A pre-scheduled number prints before the opening bell tomorrow morning. S&P futures are tanking -38 handles on Thursday evening (Friday morning Asia) after President Trump doubles-down on the tariffs against China.

Market bulls need higher copper and utilities to push stocks higher. Watch JJC 35.08 and UTIL 700.74. Either one will create upside fuel for equities. The UTIL 700.74 number is in play for all next week so write it down and watch it. Market bulls receive strength if UTIL moves above 701 while bears receive strength if price remains below.

Market bears need weaker commodities and NYSE Composite index. Watch GTX 2553 and NYA 12438. Either one will create downside juice for the stock market. If both flip into the bearish camp, stocks will be dropping like a rock. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2649, Keybot will likely flip short.

On the last trade, the S&P 500 benchmark index turns negative this year down -1.4%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm computer program gains +3.4% on the last trade and is up +5.1% this year. The actual trading gains +6% on the last trade and is up a big +11% on the year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in 2x ETF's. Friday morning may be interesting since the algo may flip back to the bear side.

If either GTX or NYA turns bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line. If stocks sell off big but GTX and NYA remain bullish, the stock market will likely recover and move higher. S&P futures are down -40 at 7:26 PM EST Thursday evening (8:26 AM Tokyo Friday morning).

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST =
4/6/18; 9:00 AM EST =
4/4/18; 3:27 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18
4/4/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18 but algorithm remains long
4/4/18; 3:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is -18; go long 2638; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = -1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.4%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +5.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2018 = +10.9%)
4/4/18; 10:51 AM EST = -24; signal line is -18
4/4/18; 10:42 AM EST = -38; signal line is -18
4/4/18; 10:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is -17
4/4/18; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -16
4/2/18; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -15
4/2/18; 1:18 PM EST = -38; signal line is -14
4/2/18; 12:36 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12
4/2/18; 12:10 PM EST = -38; signal line is -11
4/2/18; 9:51 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9
4/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -7
3/29/18; 12:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is -6
3/29/18; 12:08 PM EST = -24; signal line is -6
3/29/18; 11:53 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/29/18; 11:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/29/18; 10:58 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +2
3/27/18; 2:31 PM EST = -10; signal line is +4
3/27/18; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
3/27/18; 10:37 AM EST = -8; signal line is +7
3/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +8
3/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +6; signal line is +9
3/26/18; 1:10 PM EST = -8; signal line is +11
3/26/18; 10:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is +12
3/26/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14
3/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15
3/23/18; 11:11 AM EST = -24; signal line is +17
3/23/18; 10:06 AM EST = -10; signal line is +19
3/23/18; 9:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is +20
3/23/18; 9:40 AM EST = -10; signal line is +22
3/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +23
3/22/18; 3:51 PM EST = -8; signal line is +23
3/21/18; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +24
3/21/18; 11:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is +24
3/21/18; 9:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is +24
3/20/18; 2:34 PM EST = +22; signal line is +24
3/20/18; 2:03 PM EST = +6; signal line is +24
3/20/18; 10:34 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
3/20/18; 10:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is +25
3/20/18; 9:44 AM EST = +22; signal line is +27
3/19/18; 11:38 AM EST = +6; signal line is +28
3/19/18; 10:12 AM EST = +22; signal line is +29; go short 2730; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2018 = +4.9%)

Monday, April 2, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo number is only 9 points below the signal line so caution is warranted. The most important number that dictates stock market direction going forward is SPX 2579 which was breached today; this is why the market is very sick. This is serious business.

If the SPX drops below 2579 (now at 2582) and stays under, the stock market will accelerate lower and a potential stock market crash is on the table. SPX 2579 determines the fate of the stock market in the days ahead. The bears will also benefit from weaker commodities with GTX under 2551 (now at 2567).

The market bulls need to push either NYA above 12432 (now at 12216) and/or JJC above 35.08 (now at 34.42). If either parameter turns bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be firmly in play. Bulls need the NYSE Composite to rally tomorrow and for copper to trade higher.

Bears need SPX under 2579 and there will be carnage on trading floors. Tomorrow may be an epic day in the stock market. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on. 

4/8/18; 7:00 PM EST = 
4/6/18; 9:00 AM EST = 
4/2/18; 3:59 PM EST = -24; signal line is -15
4/2/18; 1:18 PM EST = -38; signal line is -14
4/2/18; 12:36 PM EST = -24; signal line is -12
4/2/18; 12:10 PM EST = -38; signal line is -11
4/2/18; 9:51 AM EST = -24; signal line is -9
4/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -10; signal line is -7
3/29/18; 12:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is -6
3/29/18; 12:08 PM EST = -24; signal line is -6
3/29/18; 11:53 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/29/18; 11:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/29/18; 10:58 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/29/18; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -1
3/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +2

Sunday, April 1, 2018

March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-03 is Available from Amazon; COMPQ, NDX and SOX Print Record Highs then Crash; Stock Indexes Slip Negative on the Year; FAANG Defanged; FB Data Scandal; AMZN in Trump Crosshairs; 2-10 Yield Spread Narrows to 46 Bips; Yield Curve Flattens; Libor; Chinese President Xi is Dictator for Life; Trade Wars Escalate; Tariffs

The March Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-03 is available through Amazon. The 2018-02 and 2018-03 publications describe and explain the stock market collapse in great detail in real-time as the event unfolds.

The April 2018-04 publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics is tentatively set for Saturday, 4/5/18.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the erratic stock market action continues. The algo number is 26 points below the signal line. Market bulls need either NYA above 12419 and/or SOX above 1353 to stop the market carnage. Consider the caution flag to be out if either parameter turns bullish and an imminent turn to the long side will be in play if both parameters turn bullish.

Market bears need to push the SPX below 2561 which is the cliff edge for the stock market. Equities will likely tumble into free fall if 2561 is lost.

4/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/18; 3:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +2
3/27/18; 2:31 PM EST = -10; signal line is +4
3/27/18; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
3/27/18; 10:37 AM EST = -8; signal line is +7
3/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +8
3/26/18; 3:47 PM EST = +6; signal line is +9
3/26/18; 1:10 PM EST = -8; signal line is +11
3/26/18; 10:35 AM EST = -24; signal line is +12
3/26/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14
3/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15

Sunday, March 25, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. The bulls were bludgeoned on Friday. Markets are closed for Good Friday in the holiday-shortened week ahead. Easter is next Sunday. Today is Palm Sunday for Catholics.

Stocks fell apart last week. SPX 2558 is key; it is a cliff-edge for the stock market. If the S&P 500 fails at 2558 (now 30 points above at 2588), it is lights out for equities; the stock market will go into free fall. Market bulls must keep price above 2558 by all means necessary.

The bulls will signal an end to the downside selling if either SOX moves above 1358 (now at 1324) and/or NYA above 12405 (now at 12177).

If SPX remains above 2558 and SOX below 1358 and NYA below 12405, markets will likely chop erratically sideways. The bears are running the show.

Watch SPX 2558 since it would open the door to a Pandora's Box of horrific downside and bloody carnage. Bulls can live to fight another day as long as they keep the S&P 500 above 2558.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other Thursday. The EOM (end-of-month) and EOQ1 (end-of-first quarter (J-F-M)) is Thursday since US markets are closed on Friday. April trading will begin on Monday, 4/2/18.

4/1/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/29/18; 10:00 AM EST =
3/27/18; 10:00 AM EST =
3/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15
3/23/18; 11:11 AM EST = -24; signal line is +17
3/23/18; 10:06 AM EST = -10; signal line is +19
3/23/18; 9:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is +20
3/23/18; 9:40 AM EST = -10; signal line is +22
3/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +23
3/22/18; 3:51 PM EST = -8; signal line is +23
3/21/18; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +24
3/21/18; 11:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is +24
3/21/18; 9:54 AM EST = +6; signal line is +23
3/20/18; 2:34 PM EST = +22; signal line is +24

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Monday morning at SPX 2730. The banks are running the show currently and retail stocks are also important. The algo's bull-bear line in the sand for XLF is 28.73 and as often is the case, price gravitated towards what Keybot predicts ahead of time and sure enough...... wait for it..... wait a little longer .... price is sitting exactly at 28.73. Obviously, as the banks go, so go the markets. XLF should dictate the direction of the broad stock market in the Wednesday trade.

Market bulls need XLF above 28.73 and that will stop the downside in the stock market. The bulls will then need RTH above 95.80 (now at 95.18) to guarantee a strong move up for equities. Bears need to push XLF under 28.73 and stocks will fall apart to the downside.

If RTH moves above 95.80, and the SPX above 2724, Keybot will likely flip long. Watch the price action around XLF 28.73 and if price jogs above and below this key level a few times that hints that the bulls may be gathering strength to move stocks higher (they will try to flip the model to the bull side without the help of retail stocks). The bears need XLF under 28.73 pronto and for it to keep dropping.

On the last trade, the algo program gains +1.9%. The actual trading gains +2.7% up +4.9% on the year thus far. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +2.1% this year. The beat goes on.

3/25/18; 7:00 PM EST =
3/20/18; 2:34 PM EST = +22; signal line is +24
3/20/18; 2:03 PM EST = +6; signal line is +24
3/20/18; 10:34 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
3/20/18; 10:12 AM EST = +6; signal line is +25
3/20/18; 9:44 AM EST = +22; signal line is +27
3/19/18; 11:38 AM EST = +6; signal line is +28
3/19/18; 10:12 AM EST = +22; signal line is +29; go short 2730; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +2.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.9%; Keybot algo for 2018 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2018 = +4.9%)
3/19/18; 9:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
3/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +32
3/16/18; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
3/16/18; 9:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +32
3/15/18; 2:26 PM EST = +38; signal line is +33
3/15/18; 2:16 PM EST = +22; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
3/14/18; 11:16 AM EST = +38; signal line is +33
3/14/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +32
3/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +31
3/9/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +29
3/9/18; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
3/8/18; 11:39 AM EST = +22; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
3/5/18; 11:25 AM EST = +38; signal line is +25
3/5/18; 10:42 AM EST = +22; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
3/5/18; 9:52 AM EST = +6; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
3/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
3/2/18; 3:31 PM EST = +22; signal line is +20
3/2/18; 1:15 PM EST = +6; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
3/2/18; 11:55 AM EST = +22; signal line is +17
3/2/18; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
3/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
3/1/18; 1:06 PM EST = +22; signal line is +12
2/28/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +38; signal line is +11
2/27/18; 10:00 AM EST = +38; signal line is +10
2/27/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +10
2/25/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +8
2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +7
2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +6
2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +4
2/15/18; 11:17 AM EST = +54; signal line is +3
2/15/18; 10:49 AM EST = +38; signal line is +2
2/14/18; 2:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is 0
2/14/18; 11:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is -1
2/14/18; 11:43 AM EST = +24; signal line is -2; go long 2679; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2018 = +2.2%)

Thursday, February 15, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side on Valentine's Day at SPX 2679. The benchmark S&P 500 Index and the Keybot algorithm model are flat on the year while the actual trading is up +2.2% after the first six weeks. Keybot remained short since December through the four weeks of obscene up and then two-week collapse in equities. Keybot exited TWM and entered SSO.

Use the SOX 1301.80 bull-bear line in the sand as the rudder currently steering the stock market directional ship. SOX is printing at 1305 creating stock market lift.

2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/18; 11:17 AM EST = +54; signal line is +3
2/15/18; 10:49 AM EST = +38; signal line is +2
2/14/18; 2:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is 0
2/14/18; 11:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is -1
2/14/18; 11:43 AM EST = +24; signal line is -2; go long 2679; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2018 = +2.2%)
2/14/18; 11:33 AM EST = +8; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
2/13/18; 12:11 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
2/13/18; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -1
2/13/18; 10:11 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
2/13/18; 9:41 AM EST = -8; signal line is +4
2/12/18; 2:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +6
2/12/18; 11:51 AM EST = -8; signal line is +8
2/12/18; 10:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is +10
2/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +12
2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15
2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17
2/9/18; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is +20
2/9/18; 2:13 PM EST = -24; signal line is +23
2/9/18; 11:50 AM EST = -38; signal line is +26
2/9/18; 9:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +29
2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32
2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
2/7/18; 3:26 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
2/7/18; 1:55 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
2/7/18; 1:46 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/7/18; 12:18 PM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/7/18; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
2/7/18; 10:49 AM EST = +6; signal line is +42
2/7/18; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +44
2/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +45
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48
2/6/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
2/5/18; 3:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +51
2/5/18; 11:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +52
2/5/18; 10:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
2/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +53
2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remans short
2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55
2/2/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
2/2/18; 11:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56
2/2/18; 10:40 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
2/2/18; 10:25 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57
2/2/18; 10:13 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
2/2/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58
2/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58
1/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +59
1/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60
1/28/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60
1/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61
1/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +61
1/21/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62
1/19/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
1/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64
1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
1/12/18; 2:08 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
1/12/18; 12:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
1/12/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67
1/12/18; 11:18 AM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
1/12/18; 11:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
1/12/18; 11:02 AM EST = +68; signal line is +69
1/12/18; 10:50 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70
1/10/18; 12:49 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
1/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +72
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74
1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74
1/2/18; 10:05 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/2/18; 9:41 AM EST = +54; signal line is +76
1/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +77
1/1/18; Begin 2018 Data Set = +54; signal line is +78; go short 2674; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2018 = 0%)

Sunday, February 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. The erratic market turmoil will likely continue. The bears need NYA under 12241 and/or SPX under 2532 and stocks will drop lower. If both fail, the stock market will be in freefall.

The bulls need stronger commodities and must push the GTX above 2505 (now at 2475). Bulls also need to push retail stocks higher by sending RTH above 94.55 (now at 93.64). These parameters will stabilize the stock market and give juice to a relief rally.

Bears will win with a weaker NYSE Composite Index while bulls will win with higher commodities and retail stocks. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning.

2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15
2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17

Saturday, February 10, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Commodities, GTX, failed after the Friday opening bell creating sogginess in stocks all day long. Keybot was active on Friday printing five numbers. The NYA kept dancing between the bull and bear camps which sent the stock market wildly higher, and wildly lower, with each move. Commodities, GTX, end the week in the bear camp. The NYA is in the bull camp. The bears remain in control with the algo number 41 points below the signal line.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17
2/9/18; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is +20
2/9/18; 2:13 PM EST = -24; signal line is +23
2/9/18; 11:50 AM EST = -38; signal line is +26
2/9/18; 9:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +29
2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32

Friday, February 9, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls took a beating yesterday. That will leave a mark. The bears remain in control with the algo number turning negative 42 points below the signal line.

Stocks will stabilize if retail stocks rally. Bulls need RTH above 94.50. Bulls will receive further upside strength if the banks, chips and copper can rally.

The bears will continue the downside crash in stocks with either GTX under 2510, NYA under 12240 and/or SPX under 2527. If these three parameters turn bearish, stocks will be in a full-fledged major crash event. Any one of them failing will create another strong leg lower in the stock market.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32
2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34

Thursday, February 8, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. Keybot was very active in the Wednesday session printing nine numbers. The bears are in control with the algo number 28 points below the signal line.

Bears need lower commodities to create more market carnage. Bulls need higher copper, banks and semiconductors to move the stock market higher.

Bears need GTX under 2512 now at 2548. Bulls need JJC under 36.12 now at 35.19, and/or XLF under 28.61 now at 28.41 and/or SOX under 1310 now at 1272.

If any one of the three JJC, XLF or SOX parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play. If 2 of the 3 flip bullish, and the SPX moves above 2728, Keybot will likely flip long. The key to the market direction today will be commodities, copper and banks.

The US dollar index moves higher overnight creating weakness in commodities. Copper futures are marginally lower. S&P futures are down -9, although trading all over the map, as this is typed 3 hours before the opening bell for the regular session. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
2/7/18; 3:26 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
2/7/18; 1:55 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
2/7/18; 1:46 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/7/18; 12:18 PM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/7/18; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
2/7/18; 10:49 AM EST = +6; signal line is +42
2/7/18; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +44
2/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +45
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short since December. The algo is focused on copper, chips and banks as the key parameters most impacting market direction currently.

Bears need JJC under 36.17 (now at 36.51) to create another downleg in the stock market. Copper futures are down -0.3% as this is typed but bears are going to need a -0.9% drop before they cheer.

Bulls need either SOX above 1311.50 (now at 1302) and/or XLF above 28.60 (now at 28.39) to begin a healthy relief rally. Either parameter will stop the stock market downside, stabilize markets and begin to create an upward bias. Bulls, however, need both parameters to turn bullish if they want Keybot to flip long. If one parameter flips long, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If both the SOX and XLF turn bullish, and the SPX rallies above 2701, Keybot will likely flip long.

Thus, bears are rooting for lower copper while the bulls are cheering for stronger semiconductors and banks. Monitor activity in these parameters since it will tell you the stock market direction ahead. Copper futures are down -0.44% five hours before the opening bell for the US trading session.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Isn't it amazing after five weeks we finally see what the Keybot algorithm has seen all along? The algo would not flip long this year as the upside joy in stocks occurred through January. It was the strangest behavior of the Keybot the Quant algorithm in its over one-decade existence.

It all finally makes sense. The robot was smart enough to know it did not want to go long since there was a huge risk to the downside, which ended up occurring. It is amazing. All that Keybot sees is 1's and 0's. Robots are smarter than humans. Keybot did not gain anything during the January rally but it did not lose anything either on the crash. The algo is designed to seek the smoothest path possible through the trading year.

As mentioned in nearly every message over the last month, these are not your grandfather's markets. Something special was occurring as pointed out with the volatility since December. Now we see what the story was after the historic flash crash yesterday afternoon and the ongoing sickness. The SPX is negative on the year.

Well, what happens next? You saw a day ago that copper rallied but what hurt the stock market was the semiconductors that failed at the opening bell. Then the banks failed and the retail stocks are the latest to fail. The bears remain in control with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Looking at the algo, the key parameters most impacting stock market direction currently are retail stocks and copper both in the bull camp. Bears need RTH under 94.68 to create more stock market downside. Bears also need JJC below 36.17 to create more market carnage. If both fail that will be a bloodbath lower for equities.

The bulls need to keep RTH above 94.67 and JJC above 36.17. This will stabilize the stock market. Then, if the banks and semiconductors move higher, the stock market will recover with a relief rally.

On Tuesday, today, going into munchtime on the US East Coast, RTH is at 94.79. Bears need another 12 pennies lower to create a stock market downleg. JJC is at 36.34 so bears need another 17 cents lower for copper. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48
2/6/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
2/5/18; 3:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +51
2/5/18; 11:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +52
2/5/18; 10:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
2/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +53
2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remans short

Sunday, February 4, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side. The market goofiness continues. The algo number and signal line are each at +54. It is a bull-bear, knock-down, drag-out battle right now and only a coin flip will decide the winner ahead. Looking at the algorithm's inner metrics, the bias remains on the bear side with the numbers tied.

The Dow Jones Industrials dumped 666 points on Friday and 1,100 points during the week. The SPX is 110 handles off the high but remains comfortably positive on the year. As stated during all for January, this is special and rare market behavior occurring.

Note how JJC came down Friday afternoon to tease the 36.17 line in the sand that Keybot called out ahead of time but the week ended with JJC at 36.21 in the bull camp by 4 pennies creating broad stock market buoyancy. The Keybot the Quant algo continues tracking copper as the key parameter most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

It is very simple. Bears need weaker copper and must push JJC below 36.17, if so, the stock market is going to take another strong leg lower. If the bulls can hold the line at 36.17 and force JJC higher during Monday trading, the stock market will level off and begin a relief rally higher regardless of the way the day begins. JJC 36.17 is what you need to watch to determine stock market direction.

As copper goes, so goes the markets. Copper futures are trading overnight so that will likely tell you the way the US stock market will trade during the regular session.

Keybot is also tracking semiconductors. The chips are bullish right now creating upside in the stock market. The market bears need to push SOX under 1311.33 (now at 1318) to create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Thus, if JJC and SOX remain bullish, bears got nothing and the stock market will recover. If either JJC or SOX turns bearish, the stock market will noticeably drop. If both the JJC and SOX turn bearish, stocks will be in freefall again like Friday's price action.

Another thing to watch for is the bulls pulling a sneaky one where they will jog copper above and below the JJC 36.17 line in the sand a time or three like the action on Friday morning. This price action serves to place the algorithm in a position to go long. Thus, the bears need JJC 36.17 to fail, and fail decisively and keep on dropping. If you see the JJC playing games moving a touch below 36.17 for a few minutes or so, then back above for a half-hour or so, then back below again, then back above. This behavior will tell you that the bulls are likely going to rally copper higher and it will take the broad stock market higher.

Watch JJC 36.17 as the main rudder currently steering the stock market ship. Also SOX 1311-1312. Also the price behavior in and around JJC 36.17 if this key level fails. These parameters tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction on Monday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55