Wednesday, June 22, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long printing two numbers during the Wednesday trade. The big Brexit referendum vote is tomorrow. The bears need either RTH under 76.04 and/or JJC under 24.11. If one of these two parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX is under 2084, Keybot will likely flip short.

The bulls need either XLF above 22.93 and/or VIX below 16.20 which will create upside fuel for the stock market.

For the SPX starting at 2085 on Thursday, the bears only need one point lower, to push under 2084 and the downside will accelerate lower. The bulls need to touch the 2100 handle to accelerate the upside. A move through 2085-2099 is sideways action. The S&P futures are up +11 on Wednesday evening in the States. The bulls are in charge. The bears need weaker retail stocks and copper to take stocks lower.

6/26/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/24/16; 10:00 AM EST =
6/22/16; 1:07 PM EST = +66; signal line is +62
6/22/16; 9:43 AM EST = +82; signal line is +61
6/21/16; 11:52 AM EST = +66; signal line is +60

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Retail stocks and copper turn bullish today as measured by the algorithm. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. The market bulls need strong financials, XLF above 22.93, or lower volatility, VIX under 16.20, to guarantee a sustainable rally.

The bears need either weaker retail stocks, RTH under 76.04, and/or weaker copper, JJC under 24.11 to creates a solid path lower for stocks. If RTH or JJC turns bearish, consider an imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX then drops under 2083, it is very likely that Keybot will flip back to the short side.

For the SPX starting at 2089, the bulls need to touch the 2094 handle to accelerate the upside while the bears need to push under 2083 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2084-2093 is sideways action.

6/26/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/24/16; 10:00 AM EST =
6/21/16; 11:52 AM EST = +66; signal line is +60
6/21/16; 9:42 AM EST = +50; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
6/20/16; 3:56 PM EST = +34; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long at yesterday's opening bell as the new trading week begins with a wild start. UK polls favor the Bremain camp over the Brexit camp for the referendum vote on Thursday creating a huge ramp higher in US futures and European stocks on Monday. Keybot flips long at SPX 2098. Markets are trading very erratically and as the Monday session played out, stocks rolled over to the downside and the algo is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the short side. If the SPX drops under 2075 today, Keybot will likely flip short.

The algo is tracking four key market parameters currently controlling stock market direction; retail, banks, volatility and copper. Watch RTH 76.06, XLF 22.93, VIX 16.20 and JJC 24.12. All four are bearish so the bulls need to switch these parameters across the levels shown to create market upside. The power of any rally will be determined by how many of these four parameters turn bullish. Remember, the VIX moves inverse to stocks so the bulls need the VIX to drop under 16.20.

Retail stocks and financials were the key yesterday and remain the key focus today. The RTH 76.06 and XLF 22.93 will tell you a lot about the stock market direction ahead.

For the SPX starting at 2083 for Tuesday, the bulls need to touch the 2101 handle to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2076 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2077-2100 is sideways action.

On the last trade, the Keybot the Quant algorithm computer program loses -0.7% and the actual trading is flat. The QID is dead flat during the last trade. The SPX benchmark index is up +2.6% so far this year. Keybot exited QID and entered SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's. The bulls have the ball but the bears want it back right away with the algo number 26 points under the signal line. S&P futures about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell indicate that the SPX may gain about 10 points to begin the day.

6/26/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/24/16; 10:00 AM EST =
6/20/16; 3:56 PM EST = +34; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
6/20/16; 11:48 AM EST = +50; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
6/20/16; 9:40 AM EST = +66; signal line is +61; go long 2098; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2016 = +15.2%)
6/20/16; 9:36 AM EST = +66; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains short
6/19/16; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +60
6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +61
6/14/16; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +62
6/13/16; 3:26 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63
6/13/16; 3:17 PM EST = +34; signal line is +63
6/13/16; 3:11 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63; go short 2084; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.0%; Actual results for 2016 = +15.3%)

Sunday, June 19, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the new week of trading. The algorithm was very quiet last week idling along without printing any numbers unimpressed with the price action. Bears are in control with the algo number 26 points under the signal line. The bears need lower chips, SOX under 675, if they plan to take the stock market lower. The bulls need RTH above 76.10 to stop the downside in equities and begin a strong relief rally. XLF above 23.00 will guarantee the bulls a strong move higher in markets. If status quo remains with semiconductors bullish and retail stocks and banks bearish, the stock market will stagger along in a choppy sideways pattern.

For the SPX starting at 2072, the bulls need to push above 2078 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2063 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2064-2077 is sideways action to begin the new week of trading. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

6/26/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/24/16; 10:00 AM EST =
6/19/16; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +60
6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +61

Friday, June 17, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the pre-scheduled number prints. Markets are staggering sideways. Bulls need either XLF above 23 or RTH above 76 to prove they have the beans to create a rally in stocks. The bears need to push the SOX under 675 to prove they can take stocks lower. As this drama plays out, stocks stagger choppy sideways.

6/19/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +61
6/14/16; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +62

Thursday, June 16, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and is idling along without much activity. Currently, bears would benefit from weaker chips: if SOX loses the 675 level. Market bulls can stop the selling in the stock market if retail stocks rally and RTH moves above 76.12. Otherwise, stocks will stumble along sideways.

6/19/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
6/14/16; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +62

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Wednesday trade. The bulls need either XLF above 23.10 and/or RTH above 76.12 to stop the bleeding in equities. The bears would further benefit from weakness in semiconductors and commodities.

For the SPX on Wednesday at 2075, the bulls need to push 6 points higher above 2081 and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push 11 points lower under 2064 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2065-2080 is sideways action. The bears have the ball and the algo number is comfortably 28 points under the signal line.

6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
6/14/16; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +62
6/13/16; 3:26 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63

Monday, June 13, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this afternoon at SPX 2084. Financials failed so you knew that stocks would retreat. That was quite a fight at XLF 23.12; it amazing that the algorithm can identify these key parameters and their levels before they occur.

Tuesday will be a fight between retail stocks and financials. Bulls need stronger banks while bears need weaker retail stocks. Bears need RTH to drop under 76.14 (now at 76.18) and equities will take another strong leg lower. Bulls need XLF above 23.12 (now at 23.00) to stop the market selling and begin a recovery rally. If banks remain bearish and retail stocks remain bullish, the stock market will float along sideways with an upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2079 on Tuesday, the bears need to push under 2078, only one point lower, and stocks will accelerate lower. The bulls need to push above 2098 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead, bulls will focus on pushing XLF above 23.12 which will immediately create market stability. A move through SPX 2079-2097 is sideways action for Tuesday.

The benchmark SPX index is now up +2% on the year. On the last trade, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +1.5% and is up +8.4% this year. The actual trading gains +3.0% on the last trade which places the actual trading up over +15% on the year thus far (the algorithm program triggers where the actual trading enters and exits the ETF's). Keybot exited SSO and entered QID remaining in the double-leveraged ETF's.

The bears have the ball. Watch the retail stocks and banks since they determine which way the stock market goes on Tuesday.

6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
6/13/16; 3:26 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63
6/13/16; 3:17 PM EST = +34; signal line is +63
6/13/16; 3:11 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63; go short 2084; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +2.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.0%; Actual results for 2016 = +15.3%)
6/13/16; 1:57 PM EST = +50; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains long
6/12/16; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63
6/10/16; 1:57 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63
6/10/16; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +62
6/5/16; 7:00 PM EST = +80; signal line is +61
6/3/16; 9:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +60
5/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +80; signal line is +60
5/31/16; 10:00 AM EST = +80; signal line is +58
5/29/16; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +58
5/27/16; 10:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/25/16; 10:02 AM EST = +79; signal line is +57
5/22/16; 7:00 PM EST = +63; signal line is +57
5/20/16; 9:52 AM EST = +63; signal line is +57; go long 2054; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2016 = +12.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears are pushing hard. Both retail stocks and financials fell to their bull-bear levels identified by the algorithm and bounced. The market bears need either XLF under 23.12, only five pennies away now, and/or RTH under 76.14 (now at 76.28). Either would send stocks strongly lower; if both fail equities will collapse down the rabbit hole. Bulls need lower volatility to push VIX under 16.44 but instead it is moving higher helping bears.

Watch XLF 23.11-23.12 because it will tell you who wins today. Price is barely above. Stocks are toast if XLF fails but if it holds, bulls will recover.

6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
6/12/16; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63

Sunday, June 12, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long to begin the new week of trading. Market bulls win big if the VIX drops under 16.58 (now at 17.03). Market bears win big if XLF drops under 23.11 (now at 23.16). Thus, bulls need lower volatility to stop the market selling while bears need lower financials to accelerate the stock market move lower.

If XLF drops under 23.11, and the SPX falls under 2090, Keybot will likely flip short. Hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If the VIX drops under 16.58, however, the imminent turn would no longer be applicable.

For the SPX starting at 2096, the bulls need to gain 14 points to touch the 2110 handle and bingo, stocks will accelerate higher. The bears need to push under 2090 to accelerate the downside quickly into the low to mid 2080's a critical support area. A move through 2091-2109 is sideways action to begin the week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 3 points above the signal line but the bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Watch volatility and the banks.

6/19/16; 7:00 PM EST =
6/17/16; 9:00 AM EST =
6/12/16; 7:00 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63
6/10/16; 1:57 PM EST = +66; signal line is +63