Thursday, February 15, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side on Valentine's Day at SPX 2679. The benchmark S&P 500 Index and the Keybot algorithm model are flat on the year while the actual trading is up +2.2% after the first six weeks. Keybot remained short since December through the four weeks of obscene up and then two-week collapse in equities. Keybot exited TWM and entered SSO.

Use the SOX 1301.80 bull-bear line in the sand as the rudder currently steering the stock market directional ship. SOX is printing at 1305 creating stock market lift.

2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/18; 11:17 AM EST = +54; signal line is +3
2/15/18; 10:49 AM EST = +38; signal line is +2
2/14/18; 2:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is 0
2/14/18; 11:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is -1
2/14/18; 11:43 AM EST = +24; signal line is -2; go long 2679; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2018 = -0.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2018 = +2.2%)
2/14/18; 11:33 AM EST = +8; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
2/13/18; 12:11 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
2/13/18; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is -1
2/13/18; 10:11 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
2/13/18; 9:41 AM EST = -8; signal line is +4
2/12/18; 2:46 PM EST = -24; signal line is +6
2/12/18; 11:51 AM EST = -8; signal line is +8
2/12/18; 10:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is +10
2/12/18; 9:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +12
2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15
2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17
2/9/18; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is +20
2/9/18; 2:13 PM EST = -24; signal line is +23
2/9/18; 11:50 AM EST = -38; signal line is +26
2/9/18; 9:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +29
2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32
2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
2/7/18; 3:26 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
2/7/18; 1:55 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
2/7/18; 1:46 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/7/18; 12:18 PM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/7/18; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
2/7/18; 10:49 AM EST = +6; signal line is +42
2/7/18; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +44
2/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +45
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48
2/6/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
2/5/18; 3:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +51
2/5/18; 11:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +52
2/5/18; 10:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
2/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +53
2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remans short
2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55
2/2/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
2/2/18; 11:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56
2/2/18; 10:40 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
2/2/18; 10:25 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57
2/2/18; 10:13 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
2/2/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58
2/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58
1/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +59
1/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60
1/28/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60
1/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61
1/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +61
1/21/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62
1/19/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
1/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64
1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
1/12/18; 2:08 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
1/12/18; 12:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
1/12/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67
1/12/18; 11:18 AM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
1/12/18; 11:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
1/12/18; 11:02 AM EST = +68; signal line is +69
1/12/18; 10:50 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70
1/10/18; 12:49 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
1/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +72
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74
1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74
1/2/18; 10:05 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/2/18; 9:41 AM EST = +54; signal line is +76
1/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +77
1/1/18; Begin 2018 Data Set = +54; signal line is +78; go short 2674; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2018 = 0%)

Sunday, February 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. The erratic market turmoil will likely continue. The bears need NYA under 12241 and/or SPX under 2532 and stocks will drop lower. If both fail, the stock market will be in freefall.

The bulls need stronger commodities and must push the GTX above 2505 (now at 2475). Bulls also need to push retail stocks higher by sending RTH above 94.55 (now at 93.64). These parameters will stabilize the stock market and give juice to a relief rally.

Bears will win with a weaker NYSE Composite Index while bulls will win with higher commodities and retail stocks. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week both on Friday morning.

2/18/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/16/18; 10:00 AM EST =
2/16/18; 9:00 AM EST =
2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is +15
2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17

Saturday, February 10, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Commodities, GTX, failed after the Friday opening bell creating sogginess in stocks all day long. Keybot was active on Friday printing five numbers. The NYA kept dancing between the bull and bear camps which sent the stock market wildly higher, and wildly lower, with each move. Commodities, GTX, end the week in the bear camp. The NYA is in the bull camp. The bears remain in control with the algo number 41 points below the signal line.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/9/18; 3:20 PM EST = -24; signal line is +17
2/9/18; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is +20
2/9/18; 2:13 PM EST = -24; signal line is +23
2/9/18; 11:50 AM EST = -38; signal line is +26
2/9/18; 9:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +29
2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32

Friday, February 9, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls took a beating yesterday. That will leave a mark. The bears remain in control with the algo number turning negative 42 points below the signal line.

Stocks will stabilize if retail stocks rally. Bulls need RTH above 94.50. Bulls will receive further upside strength if the banks, chips and copper can rally.

The bears will continue the downside crash in stocks with either GTX under 2510, NYA under 12240 and/or SPX under 2527. If these three parameters turn bearish, stocks will be in a full-fledged major crash event. Any one of them failing will create another strong leg lower in the stock market.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/8/18; 3:34 PM EST = -10; signal line is +32
2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34

Thursday, February 8, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. Keybot was very active in the Wednesday session printing nine numbers. The bears are in control with the algo number 28 points below the signal line.

Bears need lower commodities to create more market carnage. Bulls need higher copper, banks and semiconductors to move the stock market higher.

Bears need GTX under 2512 now at 2548. Bulls need JJC under 36.12 now at 35.19, and/or XLF under 28.61 now at 28.41 and/or SOX under 1310 now at 1272.

If any one of the three JJC, XLF or SOX parameters turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play. If 2 of the 3 flip bullish, and the SPX moves above 2728, Keybot will likely flip long. The key to the market direction today will be commodities, copper and banks.

The US dollar index moves higher overnight creating weakness in commodities. Copper futures are marginally lower. S&P futures are down -9, although trading all over the map, as this is typed 3 hours before the opening bell for the regular session. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/7/18; 3:52 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
2/7/18; 3:26 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
2/7/18; 1:55 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36
2/7/18; 1:46 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38
2/7/18; 12:18 PM EST = +6; signal line is +39
2/7/18; 11:07 AM EST = +22; signal line is +41
2/7/18; 10:49 AM EST = +6; signal line is +42
2/7/18; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +44
2/7/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +45
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short since December. The algo is focused on copper, chips and banks as the key parameters most impacting market direction currently.

Bears need JJC under 36.17 (now at 36.51) to create another downleg in the stock market. Copper futures are down -0.3% as this is typed but bears are going to need a -0.9% drop before they cheer.

Bulls need either SOX above 1311.50 (now at 1302) and/or XLF above 28.60 (now at 28.39) to begin a healthy relief rally. Either parameter will stop the stock market downside, stabilize markets and begin to create an upward bias. Bulls, however, need both parameters to turn bullish if they want Keybot to flip long. If one parameter flips long, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If both the SOX and XLF turn bullish, and the SPX rallies above 2701, Keybot will likely flip long.

Thus, bears are rooting for lower copper while the bulls are cheering for stronger semiconductors and banks. Monitor activity in these parameters since it will tell you the stock market direction ahead. Copper futures are down -0.44% five hours before the opening bell for the US trading session.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Isn't it amazing after five weeks we finally see what the Keybot algorithm has seen all along? The algo would not flip long this year as the upside joy in stocks occurred through January. It was the strangest behavior of the Keybot the Quant algorithm in its over one-decade existence.

It all finally makes sense. The robot was smart enough to know it did not want to go long since there was a huge risk to the downside, which ended up occurring. It is amazing. All that Keybot sees is 1's and 0's. Robots are smarter than humans. Keybot did not gain anything during the January rally but it did not lose anything either on the crash. The algo is designed to seek the smoothest path possible through the trading year.

As mentioned in nearly every message over the last month, these are not your grandfather's markets. Something special was occurring as pointed out with the volatility since December. Now we see what the story was after the historic flash crash yesterday afternoon and the ongoing sickness. The SPX is negative on the year.

Well, what happens next? You saw a day ago that copper rallied but what hurt the stock market was the semiconductors that failed at the opening bell. Then the banks failed and the retail stocks are the latest to fail. The bears remain in control with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Looking at the algo, the key parameters most impacting stock market direction currently are retail stocks and copper both in the bull camp. Bears need RTH under 94.68 to create more stock market downside. Bears also need JJC below 36.17 to create more market carnage. If both fail that will be a bloodbath lower for equities.

The bulls need to keep RTH above 94.67 and JJC above 36.17. This will stabilize the stock market. Then, if the banks and semiconductors move higher, the stock market will recover with a relief rally.

On Tuesday, today, going into munchtime on the US East Coast, RTH is at 94.79. Bears need another 12 pennies lower to create a stock market downleg. JJC is at 36.34 so bears need another 17 cents lower for copper. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/18; 9:49 AM EST = +22; signal line is +48
2/6/18; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
2/5/18; 3:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +51
2/5/18; 11:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +52
2/5/18; 10:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
2/5/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +53
2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remans short

Sunday, February 4, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side. The market goofiness continues. The algo number and signal line are each at +54. It is a bull-bear, knock-down, drag-out battle right now and only a coin flip will decide the winner ahead. Looking at the algorithm's inner metrics, the bias remains on the bear side with the numbers tied.

The Dow Jones Industrials dumped 666 points on Friday and 1,100 points during the week. The SPX is 110 handles off the high but remains comfortably positive on the year. As stated during all for January, this is special and rare market behavior occurring.

Note how JJC came down Friday afternoon to tease the 36.17 line in the sand that Keybot called out ahead of time but the week ended with JJC at 36.21 in the bull camp by 4 pennies creating broad stock market buoyancy. The Keybot the Quant algo continues tracking copper as the key parameter most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

It is very simple. Bears need weaker copper and must push JJC below 36.17, if so, the stock market is going to take another strong leg lower. If the bulls can hold the line at 36.17 and force JJC higher during Monday trading, the stock market will level off and begin a relief rally higher regardless of the way the day begins. JJC 36.17 is what you need to watch to determine stock market direction.

As copper goes, so goes the markets. Copper futures are trading overnight so that will likely tell you the way the US stock market will trade during the regular session.

Keybot is also tracking semiconductors. The chips are bullish right now creating upside in the stock market. The market bears need to push SOX under 1311.33 (now at 1318) to create a strong leg lower in stocks.

Thus, if JJC and SOX remain bullish, bears got nothing and the stock market will recover. If either JJC or SOX turns bearish, the stock market will noticeably drop. If both the JJC and SOX turn bearish, stocks will be in freefall again like Friday's price action.

Another thing to watch for is the bulls pulling a sneaky one where they will jog copper above and below the JJC 36.17 line in the sand a time or three like the action on Friday morning. This price action serves to place the algorithm in a position to go long. Thus, the bears need JJC 36.17 to fail, and fail decisively and keep on dropping. If you see the JJC playing games moving a touch below 36.17 for a few minutes or so, then back above for a half-hour or so, then back below again, then back above. This behavior will tell you that the bulls are likely going to rally copper higher and it will take the broad stock market higher.

Watch JJC 36.17 as the main rudder currently steering the stock market ship. Also SOX 1311-1312. Also the price behavior in and around JJC 36.17 if this key level fails. These parameters tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction on Monday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The beat goes on.

2/11/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55

January Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-01 is Available from Amazon; US Stock Indexes Print All-Time Highs; Global Stock Indexes at Record and Multi-Year Highs; Dow 26,600+; SPX 2,870+; Utilities Crash -13%; Treasury Secretary Mnuchin “Weak Dollar Policy” Mistake; Government Shutdown; Davos; Protectionism; Bank Earnings; Greenspan Says Stocks and Bonds are Bubbles; BOJ Announces Unlimited Bond-Buying; Global Yields Climb Higher

The January Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-01 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and individual stocks around the world. The S&P 500 crosses above 2,800 for the first time in history running to the all-time high at 2,872.80. The Dow Jones Industrials cross above 26,000 for the first time in history printing the all-time high at 26,614.85. Investors were joyously celebrating until the week of 1/28/18 where stocks drift lower and on Friday, 2/2/18, the Dow plummets 666 points.

January Cover Highlights;
US STOCK INDEXES PRINT ALL-TIME HIGHS
GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES AT RECORD AND MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
DOW 26,600+
S&P 500 2,870+
UTILITIES CRASH -13%
TREASURY SECRETARY MNUCHIN “WEAK DOLLAR POLICY” MISTAKE
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
DAVOS
PROTECTIONISM
BANK EARNINGS
GREENSPAN SAYS STOCKS AND BONDS ARE BUBBLES
BOJ ANNOUNCES UNLIMITED BOND-BUYING
GLOVAL YIELDS CLIMB HIGHER

The January chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major US indexes (SPX, INDU or DJI, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA, TRAN or DJT) and the SOX. The Dow overtakes 26,600 and the S&P 500 prints above 2,870 (last week’s selloff shaves 108 points off the high with the SPX now at 2762).

The World Economic Forum took place in Davos, Switzerland, where Treasury Secretary Mnuchin inserted his shiny wingtip into his mouth by professing a weak dollar policy. Heads turned. Jaws dropped. A strong dollar policy is supposed to be the standard talking point of US officials (even though behind the scenes a weak dollar is desired). Mnuchin backtracked but the currency and trade wars and protectionism shots across bow have started.

Yields climb (the 10-year prints 2.854% not seen in four years) as February begins creating angst in the stock markets especially on Friday 2/2/18. The 2018-01 publication runs through Saturday 2/3/18 so the Jobs Report and the big selloff in stocks is recorded in detail as it played out in real-time.

President Trump continues boasting about the new record highs in stocks taking full credit and responsibility for the upside joy during January sans the last few days. Oil prices remain elevated with both West Texas and Brent printing at 2-1/2 year highs.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can relive the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

The 2017-11 publication chronicles the 400-point intraday drop in the Dow on Friday, 12/1/17, when it was thought that former Trump adviser Michael Flynn had implicated the president in nefarious deeds. This news story turned out to be not true although Jared Kushner and Donny Trump, Jr, may be in trouble.

The 2017-12 issue highlights all the wild action in the cybercurrency arena with bitcoin, ripple, etherum, litecoin and others. You can relive the excitement of the SPX 2,700 and Dow 25,000 levels in the 2017-12 publication as well as reference all the key statistics for the year for the world’s stock indexes, bonds, commodities, currencies and important individual stocks. Warren Buffett stands up and performs a jig of joy as his Berkshire Hathaway stock crosses above 300,000 for the first time ever in December 2017.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The February 2018-02 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 3/3/18.

The popular “Keystone the Scribe” daily market chronology blog, “The Keystone Speculator” stock charts and technical analysis blog and the “Keybot the Quant’ algorithm blog are visited by over one-half million people around the world each month. The free original content on these sites is not available anywhere else on the internet and content is only posted in proportion to the support received. Thank you.

Friday, February 2, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd market action continues. Stocks selloff this week but the algorithm remained quiet. Then today, Keybot starts printing numbers like a madman 8 numbers today including the 2 pre-scheduled numbers. Note there is only 1 point difference between the algo number and signal line so the stock market is a coin flip.

The  market bulls are jogging copper back and forth across its bull-bear line in the sand at JJC 36.17 trying to get the algo to flip long. Keybot the Quant has oddly remained short for all of January as the stock market rallied. This is extremely rare behavior. Stocks retreat off the highs this week but remain elevated on the year.

As stocks sell off, copper does not remain negative which means the bulls may win the battle. Bears must push JJC under 36.17 to prove they can take the stock market lower. JJC is at 36.32 so the bears need another 17 pennies. If copper remains bullish the bulls are going to likely rally the stock market. Watch JJC 36.17 closely. The strange market action continues.

2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/2/18; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55
2/2/18; 11:24 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
2/2/18; 11:13 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56
2/2/18; 10:40 AM EST = +38; signal line is +56
2/2/18; 10:25 AM EST = +54; signal line is +57
2/2/18; 10:13 AM EST = +38; signal line is +57
2/2/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58
2/2/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +58
1/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +59
1/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd market action continues. The bears create selling pressure but were unable to get copper to fail so they got buppkis. The bulls are getting pounded by the higher volatility. The battle between volatility and copper, which controls broad stock market direction currently, continues.

Bears need JJC under 36.17 (now at 36.33). If stocks continue lower but JJC is unable to move below 36.17, the bears got nothing and the bulls will rally stocks higher. If JJC fails at 36.17, stocks will flush strongly lower. Watch how copper trades overnight.

Bulls need VIX below 10.30 (now at 14.79) to guarantee upside joy.  Wednesday is end-of-month (EOM) and Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number. Watch JJC 36.17 since it tells you what you need to know for hump day.

2/4/18; 7:00 PM EST =
2/2/18; 10:00 AM EST =
2/2/18; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/18; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/30/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +60
1/28/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +60
1/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61

Friday, January 26, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market keeps printing record highs. The oddities continue. The algo prints two numbers so far this week. Copper is oscillating in and out of the bull and bear camps. Keybot continues tracking copper and volatility as the two key parameters most impacting stock market direction. Market bears will win with lower copper while bulls will win with lower volatility.

The bears need JJC under 36.05 with price beginning the Friday session at 36.45. Copper futures are down -0.1% as this message is typed so JJC would receive a 4 cent shave at the opening bell.

The bulls need VIX below 10.15 with price currently trading at 11.33. The VIX has been above its 200-day MA for 8 consecutive days without stocks selling off. This rare and odd behavior is unprecedented and something you will probably not see again for a decade or two after it resolves.

Either copper or volatility will flinch and provide the stock market direction answer ahead. The beat goes on.

1/28/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/24/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +61
1/23/18; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +61
1/21/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62

Sunday, January 21, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side as the strange market action remains strange. Volatility and copper dictate broad stock market direction currently. The bears need weaker copper with JJC under 36.05 (now at 36.31) to accelerate a stock market selloff.

The bulls need VIX below 10.17 (now at 11.27) to catapult equities to more stock market record highs. If the VIX drops under 10.17, and the SPX moves above its all-time record high at 2810 (the S&P 500 begins the week at 2810), Keybot will likely flip long. Copper futures trade overnight and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

If volatility remains bearish and copper bullish, like the back half of last week's trading, stocks will move sideways with an upward bias. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The algorithm only printed two numbers last week and both were pre-scheduled. The market action is very odd.

Interestingly, the US government is shutdown when it was expected that the situation would resolve on Friday. The activity in the futures will ebb and flow as the Washington, DC, politicians pontificate and play their baby games.

1/28/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/21/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +62
1/19/18; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +63
1/18/18; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +64
1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd start to the year continues. Keybot has not printed any numbers as yet this week. Volatility remains elevated and utilities have crashed but the stock market continues higher. The market action is erratic and historic. The VIX is above its 200-day MA and stocks are moving higher; there is some strange stuff going on under the surface.

The Keybot algo has never gone this long without flipping in the direction of the current market trend (the stock market trend has been higher this year but the robot oddly remains short). This odd behavior has never occurred in the entire existence of the Keybot algo; well over a decade. That gives you an idea as to how odd and rare the stock market behavior is currently. It is fascinating to see how it plays out over the coming days.

The algorithm is tracking volatility and copper as the two key parameters most impacting market direction currently. The bulls need VIX below 10.20 (now at 11.91). If volatility turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2807, Keybot will likely flip long. Hence the imminent turn notation lingers in the title line.

The market bears need weaker copper to start sending stocks lower. Bears need JJC under 36.05 (now at 36.38). Copper futures trade overnight. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Thus, you can gauge how the stock market is likely to move on Thursday way before the opening bell.

If volatility remains elevated and copper is printing negatively, the bears will growl and take the stock market lower in the Thursday session. If volatility drops under 11 and is heading lower towards and below 10.20, the bears are toast and the stock market is going to run higher.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow at 9 AM.

1/19/18; 10:00 AM EST =
1/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =
1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65

Sunday, January 14, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market continues higher. Utilities collapse further and volatility is slightly elevated. The algo prints 7 numbers on Friday.

US markets are closed on Monday due to Martin Luther King, Jr, Day holiday.  On Tuesday, the bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bulls need VIX below 10.14 (now at 10.16 only 2 pennies above on the bear side). If VIX turns bullish and the SPX touches 2787 which is only a 2-point gain, Keybot will likely capitulate and flip long. It is a very odd start to the year. Bulls will also benefit from stronger utilities with UTIL above 721.

The market bears simply need to keep the VIX in the bear camp above 10.14 and at the same time send send copper lower JJC under 36.00 (now at 36.74).

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers during the holiday-shortened week one on Thursday the other Friday. As volatility goes, the stock market will move opposite.

1/21/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/18; 10:00 AM EST =
1/18/18; 9:00 AM EST =
1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
1/12/18; 2:08 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65
1/12/18; 12:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
1/12/18; 11:29 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67
1/12/18; 11:18 AM EST = +68; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
1/12/18; 11:11 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68
1/12/18; 11:02 AM EST = +68; signal line is +69
1/12/18; 10:50 AM EST = +54; signal line is +70
1/10/18; 12:49 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71

Thursday, January 11, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd start to the year continues. The bears were cheering as the VIX climbed above 10.14-10.16 yesterday but the smiles turned to frowns as volatility fell back down and the VIX retreated below 10. The bulls rule the stock market with the VIX  under 10.

Market bears need VIX above 10.14 to create weakness in the stock market. Bears would also benefit from weaker copper. The bulls need stronger utilities. S&P futures are up +3 with the VIX trading at 9.69 as this is written about 3 hours before the opening bell for the regular session. The beat goes on.

1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/10/18; 12:49 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
1/10/18; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +72
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side as the battle between utilities and volatility continues. The algo has not printed any numbers so far this week. On Tuesday, utilities move lower and volatility higher but the bears need to push the VIX even higher to prove they have the beans to take stocks lower.

The bulls need UTIL above 721.60 to guarantee upside stock market joy and above 723.60 stocks will jump wildly higher. UTIL begins the Wednesday trade at 701.

The bears need VIX above 10.16 to roll the stock market over to the downside. VIX is at 10.08 only eight cents away. The VIX begins trading 3 AM EST so that will tell you if the bears have the beans, or not. In addition, the bears can move the stock market lower if copper falters. Bears need JJC under 36.00 (now at 36.68) since this will create stock market downside.

Bulls need higher utilities while bears need higher volatility and lower copper.

1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side as a battle between utilities and volatility plays out. The algo did not print any numbers to begin the week. Both utilities and volatility move higher on Monday. Which will move higher faster?

The bulls need UTIL above 721.60 to guarantee upside stock market joy and above 723.60 stocks will jump wildly higher. UTIL begins the Tuesday trade at 708.

The bears need VIX above 10.15 to roll the stock market over to the downside. VIX is currently trading at 9.45 about 3 hours before the opening bell for the regular session.

Bulls need higher utilities while bears need higher volatility.

1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74

Monday, January 8, 2018

Flash Crashes, Fat Fingers and Computer Glitches, Oh My! 2nd Edition Available from Amazon

Flash Crashes, Fat Fingers and Computer Glitches, Oh My! summarizes the major system outages in global stock, bond, currency and futures markets since the infamous 5/6/10 Flash Crash. The flash crash events are chronicled in real-time as they occur and provide information not found elsewhere on the internet or in print.

This is the second edition updated for the flash crashes and outages that occurred in 2017. A link is at the right or simply type the title into any search engine or Amazon.

Flash crashes and flash spikes are occurring in global markets and exchanges at an increasing and alarming rate. Exchange officials and regulators downplay the events so as not to cause a loss of confidence in markets.

In late 2017, the bitcoin, ethereum, ripple and litecoin cryptocurrencies create erratic behavior and platform outages. Flash Crashes, Fat Fingers and Computer Glitches, Oh My! highlights the flash crash and flash spike events in markets that the exchanges, regulators and media are sweeping under the rug. Is another 5/6/10 Flash Crash, or worse, on the horizon?

Sunday, January 7, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as an odd market condition is occurring where the utilities have crashed into a -10% correction but the broad stock indexes continue printing new record highs. It appears the battle for market direction is between volatility and utilities.

The market bulls need to push UTIL above 720.92 which will carry the stock market higher. A move above UTIL 723.60 will create a manic move higher in stocks. UTIL begins the week at 700.

The bears need the VIX above 10.24 to create selling in stocks and it begins the week at 9.22. One of these two parameters will flinch to confirm the path ahead for the stock market. Keybot likely needs to see stronger utilities to flip to the long side. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

1/14/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +74
1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74

December Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-12 is Available from Amazon; EOY 2017 Statistics; US Stock Indexes Print All-Time Highs; Global Stock Indexes at Record and Multi-Year Highs; Dow 25,000; SPX 2,700; BRKA 300,000; Tax Bill; Blockchain; Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin; MIFID; Iran in Chaos; North Korea Turmoil; “Fire and Fury” Book; UTIL (Utilities) in -10% Correction; 2018 Begins

The December Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-12 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and individual stocks around the world. The S&P 500 crosses above 2,700 for the first time in history. The Dow Jones Industrials cross above 25,000 for the first time in history creating euphoric market joy. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher, perhaps forever.

December Cover Highlights;
EOY 2017 STATISTICS
US STOCK INDEXES PRINT ALL-TIME HIGHS
GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES AT RECORD AND MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
DOW 25,000
S&P 500 2,700
BRKA 300,000
TAX BILL
BLOCKCHAIN
BITCOIN, RIPPLE, ETHEREUM, LITECOIN
MIFID
IRAN IN CHAOS
NORTH KOREA TURMOIL
“FIRE AND FURY” BOOK
UTIL (UTILITIES) IN -10% CORRECTION
2018 BEGINS

The December chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major US indexes (SPX, INDU or DJI, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA, TRAN or DJT). The Dow overtakes 25,000 and the S&P 500 is above 2,700.

The EOY (End-of-Year) statistics are provided. Warren Buffett stands up and performs a jig of joy as his Berkshire Hathaway stock crosses above 300,000 for the first time ever. Warren never believed in stock splits.

The cryptocurrency and blockchain drama is at fevers pitch in December with crazy price moves occurring and platform outages. Companies are attaching their name to bitcoin or blockchain and exploding higher in price reminiscent of companies calling themselves a dot-com company during the 1999-2000 bubble.

The new MIFID rules come into effect across the pond creating lighter trading volume. Uprisings in Iran have the mullahs concerned. North Korea continue to rattle its saber but has agreed to talks with South Korea in January.

As the new year begins, President Trump is under fire from a gossip-style book “Fire and Fury” that says many disparaging things about the president and his family. The utility sector crashes into a correction down -10% at the same time the broad stock indexes print new joyous record highs.

President Trump continues boasting about the new record highs in stocks taking full credit and responsibility for the joy. Oil is on the move higher with both West Texas and Brent printing at 2-1/2 year highs.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can relive the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

The 2017-11 publication chronicles the 400-point intraday drop in the Dow on Friday, 12/1/17, when it was thought that former Trump adviser Michael Flynn had implicated the president in nefarious deeds. This news story turned out to be not true although Jared Kushner and Donny Trump, Jr, may be in trouble.

The 2017-12 issue highlights all the wild action in the cybercurrency arena with bitcoin, ripple, etherum, litecoin and others. You can relive the excitement of the SPX 2,700 and Dow 25,000 levels in the 2017-12 publication as well as reference all the key statistics for the year for the world’s stock indexes, bonds, commodities, currencies and important individual stocks.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The January 2018-01 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 2/3/18.

The highly popular ‘Keystone the Scribe’ daily market chronology blog, ‘The Keystone Speculator’ stock, bond and currency (Forex) technical analysis and charts blog and the ‘Keybot the Quant’ algorithm blog are visited by over one-half million people around the world each month. The free original content on these sites is not available anywhere else and only continues if the sites are supported. Thank you.

Saturday, January 6, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market melts-up higher. Keybot is idling along all week without printing any numbers since Tuesday except for the pre-scheduled number yesterday. The market action is the strangest in history. The utilities sector has crashed into a -10% correction as the broad stock indexes print record highs. That is perplexing. Next week will be interesting. Utilities and volatility are the key parameters impacting market direction currently.

Bulls need higher utes and for volatility to remain at the multi-decade lows. Bears need utilities to remain weak while pushing the VIX higher.

1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +74
1/2/18; 10:05 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market strangeness continues. Utilities collapse this week but the remainder of the market is joyous. Volatility, the VIX, collapses to an 8-handle, for only the sixth time in history. Market complacency is off the charts. Keybot idles along all day Wednesday without printing any numbers.

Market bulls win big if UTIL moves above 720.92. UTIL is at 707. Market bears win big if the VIX moves above 10.24. VIX is at 9.15. One of these two parameters is going to flinch. If UTIL moves above 721, and the SPX above 2714, Keybot will likely flip long. The beat goes on.

1/7/18; 7:00 PM EST =
1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
1/2/18; 10:05 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the erratic market behavior continues. The utilities fail this morning but the bulls ram chips higher and volatility lower. The battle for broad market control is between volatility and utilities.

Bears need VIX above 10.23 pronto to take stocks lower. Bulls need UTIL above 720.98 pronto to take stocks higher. One of these two will flinch. UTIL is at 716.31 and VIX is at 10.11. If the bulls push UTIL above 721, and the SPX above 2692, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

If the bears push the VIX above 10.23, the stock market will probably begin falling apart. The algo number is 7 points below the signal line on the bear side.

1/5/18; 9:00 AM EST =
1/2/18; 10:05 AM EST = +68; signal line is +75
1/2/18; 9:41 AM EST = +54; signal line is +76
1/2/18; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +77
1/1/18; Begin 2018 Data Set = +54; signal line is +78; go short 2674; (Benchmark SPX for 2018 = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2018 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2018 = 0%)

Monday, January 1, 2018

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Shows Keybot the Quant Algorithm Turns in 2017

The SPX daily chart shows the Keybot the Quant algorithm flipping from the long side to the short side and back again for 2017. It was a very choppy market with low volatility. The middle part of the year was very choppy and then the last quarter finishes strong as President Trump slashes banking regulations and the tax bill passes Congress.

On 12/18/17, the SPX prints the all-time highest number in history at 2694.97 only 5 points from 2.7K and the all-time closing high is 2690.16. Hopefully, the choppiness will subside in 2018 so the algorithms can breathe easier.

'Tis the Season for Giving

A snow bird whispers in Keybot the Quant’s ear that it is the giving season. It is time to turn the couch cushions over and send any loose change this way which keeps the lights on and dictates how much content is posted to the K E Stone blogs including The Keystone Speculator, Keybot the Quant and Keystone the Scribe. Any amount is appreciated. It goes to a good cause. The donate button is in the right-hand margin. Thank you.

At a minimum, to help the disadvantaged, go through your closets and donate any winter clothes, especially winter coats, that you no longer wear, to the local thrift shop in your area. Donate the clothes to the local volunteer shops rather than the nation-wide store chains since the hard-working blue-haired gals at the local thrift stores know the direct needs of the disadvantaged people in the community.

Also, take five minutes to clean out the pantry. Place the canned goods you no longer plan to eat in a box or bag and drop that off at the local food bank. Many folks would be happy to eat those beans or that soup that you no longer like. Good luck and happy investing in 2018.