Sunday, August 20, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but champing at  the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Friday trading saw a dramatic reversal to the upside for stocks led by semiconductors, financials and commodities. These three parameters are most greatly impacting broad stock market direction currently. The chips and banks, however, jump back into the bear camp at Friday's closing bell so the algo wants to flip short again. The price action is choppy and erratic.

If the SPX, starting at 2426, loses 5 points, and prints under 2421, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side, hence the imminent turn is in play. The bears need negativity in the commodities, and for GTX to fall under 2215.80, which will seal the deal with more downside losses for stocks ahead.

The bulls need SOX above 1074.20 and/or XLF above 24.65, which are only pennies from current levels, either one would do, to rally stocks higher.

Thus, bears need SPX under 2421 and GTX under 2215.80 to claim victory while the bulls need SOX above 1074 and XLF above 24.65 to take stocks higher. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The algo is on the long side but the algo number is 25 points under the signal line clearly wanting the model to flip short.

8/27/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/17; 7:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +63 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 3:56 PM EST = +38; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 3:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 2:18 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68

Friday, August 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as of about two hours ago. The chips flip back to the bull camp so stocks remain buoyant. Chips and banks tell you everything you need to know about market direction. Watch SOX 1074.30 (now at 1076) and XLF 24.65 (now 24.67). It is a game of pennies and a couple dollars.

If both parameters remain bullish, stocks should move sideways to sideways higher into the weekend. If either parameter turns bearish, stocks will create a negative bias. If both turn bearish stocks will tumble lower into the closing bell. Easy-peasy.

8/27/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/17; 2:18 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68
8/18/17; 1:49 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 2433. The stock market rallies on news that Whitehouse strategist Stephen Bannon is out. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and National Economic Advisor Cohn, former Goldman Sachs cronies, muscle Bannon out the door. The investment bankers and Wall Street always win.

Chips, financials and commodities leap to the bull side triggering the algorithm to flip long. It came on fast. The chips, however, have already reversed. Thus, bulls need SOX above 1074.30 (now at 1073.17) to prove that a solid stock market relief rally is underway. Bears need to push XLF under 24.65 (now at 24.67) and/or GTX under 2215.70 (now at 2218.40) to prove that the downside selling in the stock market will resume. The bulls would also benefit from the VIX moving below 11.41 (now at 14.56).

Note how close the bull-bear battle is for the semiconductors, banks and commodities. Flip a coin. Markets are very erratic and unstable. A whipsaw back to the short side may occur. Watch the chips as the key signal. If SOX moves above 1074.30, the upside rally for equities is real. If SOX stays under 1074.30 the bears will prevent further upside in stocks.

On the last trade, the Keybot computer program gained +0.9% for a cumulative gain of over +4% this year thus far. The actual trading gains +1.6% on the last trade and is now up nearly +5% on the year. Remember, the actual trading was negative for the entire first half of this year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in 2x ETF's. The benchmark SPX is up +8.7% this year. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw. Chips, banks and commodities are controlling stock market direction currently.

8/27/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/17; 1:49 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
8/18/17; 12:17 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69; go long 2433; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +4.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +4.8%)
8/18/17; 11:31 AM EST = +56; signal line is +70
8/18/17; 11:25 AM EST = +40; signal line is +71
8/18/17; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +73
8/17/17; 3:54 PM EST = +23; signal line is +75
8/17/17; 3:47 PM EST = +39; signal line is +78
8/17/17; 3:39 PM EST = +55; signal line is +80
8/17/17; 3:23 PM EST = +39; signal line is +82
8/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +55; signal line is +83
8/14/17; 11:57 AM EST = +55; signal line is +85
8/14/17; 9:36 AM EST = +69; signal line is +85
8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +85
8/10/17; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +86
8/10/17; 10:05 AM EST = +69; signal line is +88; go short 2455; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo only printing the pre-scheduled number this morning and nothing during the regular session. Volatility was high drama today. The VIX came down to kiss the 11.25-11.32 area called out by Keybot ahead of time, and the VIX bounced allowing the bears to maintain control despite a marginal move higher in the stock market.

Bulls need VIX below 11.32, GTX above 2214 and/or RTH above 80.64. Any one will create upside joy in stocks. If two of the three flip bullish, Keybot will likely flip long.

Market bears will maintain control of the stock market if all three parameters, volatility, commodities, and retail stocks, respectively, remain bearish. Bears need weaker banks and chips to take stocks lower. The bears are in control with the algo number 28 points under the signal line.

8/18/17; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +55; signal line is +83
8/14/17; 11:57 AM EST = +55; signal line is +85

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish. The market bulls need lower volatility and higher commodities to prove that they can rally the stock market. Bulls need VIX below 11.32 and/or GTX above 2215. Bears need weaker chips, banks and copper to gain downside mojo. The bears are in control with the algo number 30 points under the signal line. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell on hump day.

8/18/17; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/14/17; 11:57 AM EST = +55; signal line is +85

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market staggers sideways after Monday's big relief rally. Keybot printed another number in the Monday session but nothing so far on Tuesday. The bears are in charge with the algo number 30 points under the signal line but humorously, the stock indexes are green.

Bears will need to weaken the chips and banks to gain downside momo. The bulls need higher commodities, lower volatility and higher retail stocks to reestablish an upside rally. Bulls need GTX above 2215, VIX below 11.32 and/or RTH above 80.69. Any one of the three will guarantee further upside in the stock market and if 2 of the 3 flip bullish, Keybot will likely flip long.

8/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/14/17; 11:57 AM EST = +55; signal line is +85
8/14/17; 9:36 AM EST = +69; signal line is +85

Monday, August 14, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the bulls stage a robust relief rally. The semiconductors and banks lead the way higher. SOX pops up through the important 1076 level creating the upside thrust. The bears remain in control with the algo number 16 points below the signal line but the caution flag is out.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks and lower volatility. If RTH moves above 80.69 (now at 80.27) and/or VIX below 11.35 (now at 12.56), stocks will move strongly higher. If one of these two parameters flip bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play and Keybot will be in position to go long. The bears need weaker chips and to push the SOX back below 1076. Weaker chips and banks will help bears while stronger retail stocks and lower volatility will help bulls.

8/20/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/17; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/14/17; 9:36 AM EST = +69; signal line is +85
8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +85

Sunday, August 13, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears need weaker banks to prove they have the juice to send the stock market another leg lower. Bears need XLF under 24.63 (now at 24.73 only a dime above). On Friday, the financials fell to 24.67 only 4 pennies from the 24.63 called out by the algo but price bounced. XLF will tell you a lot about the stock market direction early in the new week of trading.

Market bulls are slapped around a little but not yet concerned about the tame pullback. Keybot is tracking volatility, chips and retail. Bulls need either VIX under 11.33, SOX above 1076 and/or RTH above 80.77. Any one of these three will stop all market selling and begin a relief rally. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, Keybot may be in position to move to the long side again.

Lots of retail earnings this week will toss the RTH to and fro. Watch the chips. If SOX moves above 1076, stocks are going to begin rallying higher. Bears need to stab the banks in the heart with XLF 24.63 if they want to create serious stock market selling.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The bears are cruising with the algo number 32 points below the signal line.

8/20/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/17; 10:00 AM EST =
8/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +85
8/10/17; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +86

Friday, August 11, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as the stock market rebounds on Friday morning. Bears need lower commodities and banks to create market carnage, GTX under 2214 (now at 2223) and XLF under 24.64 (now at 24.83), respectively.

Bulls need higher chips and retail stocks to move the stock market higher, SOX above 1076 (now at 1063) and RTH above 80.78 (now at 79.99), respectively. Semiconductors are key. If SOX remains below 1076, the bears are going to remain in control going forward. If SOX moves above 1076, the relief rally has upside legs. The caution flag will come out if SOX moves above 1076. If commodities and banks remains bullish, and chips and retail stocks remain bearish, the stock market will stagger along sideways into the weekend.

8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/10/17; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +86

Thursday, August 10, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side shortly after the opening bell at SPX 2455. The VIX has popped above 15 now at 13.45 creating market negativity. Ditto retail stocks with RTH failing below the critical 80.82 level. Ditto chips that collapse under the important SOX 1076 bull-bear line in the sand. The semiconductor weakness creates the flush lower in stocks shortly after 10 AM.

On the last trade that went about one month, the algo program gains +1.2%. The actual trading gains +2.5% and is now up +3.2% on the year. It is nice to see a positive number since many Wall Street algorithms are struggling greatly this year due to the lack of volatility and low volume. Keybot is hanging in there. The S&P 500 benchmark is up nearly +10% this year thus far. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS.

The bears are in control with the algo number 33 points under the signal line, however, watch out for a whipsaw move in these erratic and goofy markets. Focus on chips. The market bears will run out of gas and be unable to push the stock market lower if the SOX rises above 1076. If SOX remains under 1076 (now at 1073), the bears will continue growling and creating more negativity in the stock market. The bears finally have a turn at bat.

8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/10/17; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +86
8/10/17; 10:05 AM EST = +69; signal line is +88; go short 2455; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)
8/10/17; 9:36 AM EST = +69; signal line is +88 but algorithm remains long
8/9/17; 3:59 PM EST = +99; signal line is +89
8/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +85; signal line is +88 but algorithm remains long
8/8/17; 3:45 PM EST = +99; signal line is +88
8/8/17; 3:38 PM EST = +85; signal line is +87 but algorithm remains long
8/6/17; 7:00 PM EST = +99; signal line is +87
8/4/17; 10:27 AM EST = +99; signal line is +85
8/4/17; 10:07 AM EST = +83; signal line is +84 but algorithm remains long
8/4/17; 9:36 AM EST = +99; signal line is +84
8/4/17; 9:00 AM EST = +83; signal line is +82
8/3/17; 3:52 PM EST = +83; signal line is +82
8/3/17; 3:42 PM EST = +99; signal line is +81
8/3/17; 1:57 PM EST = +83; signal line is +79
8/3/17; 1:12 PM EST = +67; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
8/3/17; 1:07 PM EST = +83; signal line is +77
8/3/17; 12:52 PM EST = +99; signal line is +76
8/3/17; 11:52 AM EST = +83; signal line is +73
7/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +99; signal line is +71
7/30/17; 7:00 PM EST = +99; signal line is +70
7/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +99; signal line is +68
7/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +66
7/25/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +64
7/25/17; 9:41 AM EST = +86; signal line is +62
7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +59
7/20/17; 1:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +58
7/19/17; 2:47 PM EST = +84; signal line is +57
7/19/17; 1:57 AM EST = +100; signal line is +55
7/19/17; 1:47 PM EST = +86; signal line is +53
7/19/17; 1:37 PM EST = +70; signal line is +52
7/19/17; 1:13 PM EST = +86; signal line is +52
7/19/17; 12:31 PM EST = +70; signal line is +50
7/19/17; 11:52 AM EST = +86; signal line is +49
7/19/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +49
7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48
7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
7/11/17; 11:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
7/11/17; 11:24 AM EST = +56; signal line is +48
7/10/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2425; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.7%)

Note Added 11;11 AM EST: SOX is printing at 1074.09 about 2 points below the 1076 bull-bear line in the sand called out by Keybot. Watch this closely. Bears win under SOX 1076. Bulls win above SOX 1076.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but keeps teasing a move to the short side. Volatility is playing games with the VIX moving above and below the key 11.16 level. The algo number will drop again after the opening bell with VIX above 12 currently. Thus, if the SPX drops below 2462, Keybot will likely flip short. Yesterday, the bear's threatened to take stocks lower but they did not have enough gas and could not take out the initial lows in the session.

Market bulls need to push volatility lower and send VIX below 11.16 to resume the upside rally. Market bears will growl with VIX above 11.16 and especially above 12. The SPX 2462 level is key in the early going.

8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/9/17; 3:59 PM EST = +99; signal line is +89
8/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +85; signal line is +88 but algorithm remains long
8/8/17; 3:45 PM EST = +99; signal line is +88

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The banks and retail stocks are buoyant to begin the week slapping the bears in the face. In the Tuesday trade, volatility spikes higher due to North Korea tensions. Keybot was ready to flip short but did not. Volatility is higher this morning so the algo will want to flip short again after the opening bell for the regular trading session.

The key is likely the SPX 2470.32 LOD from yesterday. If this is taken out and price holds below here for several minutes, and then begins moving lower, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn is in play. Bears have it on a silver platter if they can create about 5 points of downside. The S&P futures are down 11 as this message is typed.

Gap down moves are tricky since the algo may not bite on the short side if prices fall like a rock in the first few minutes. Pay attention to the low prints in the SPX as they occur today. Bears will growl and the upside rally is over as long as the VIX remains above 11.16.

8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/8/17; 3:45 PM EST = +99; signal line is +88
8/8/17; 3:38 PM EST = +85; signal line is +87 but algorithm remains long
8/6/17; 7:00 PM EST = +99; signal line is +87

Sunday, August 6, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears are starting to knock on the door. The algo was sleeping all last week until Thursday when it springs into action and prints 12 numbers into the weekend including the one pre-scheduled number. Market bears tried to flip the model short on Thursday and Friday but the internal parameters would not fully latch to allow the move. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 12 points above the signal line.

The bears need weaker retail stocks and a five-point drop in the S&P 500. If RTH drops under 80.80 (now at 81.00), only 20 pennies away, and the SPX drops under 2472, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If RTH remains above 80.80, the bears got nothing and the imminent turn will not be in play as the bulls push stocks higher.

Market bears would also benefit from lower semiconductors and higher volatility. Bears need SOX under 1075.73 (now at 1090) and/or VIX above 11.28 (now at 10.03). Thus, bears will stop the stock market rally dead in its tracks with RTH 80.80, SOX 1075.73 or VIX 11.28. Any one would do. If these three parameters remain bullish, the stock market will continue floating higher.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Listen for news about retail stocks overnight, good or bad news, which will likely tell the tale for Monday and watch the chips closely.

8/13/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/6/17; 7:00 PM EST = +99; signal line is +87
8/4/17; 10:27 AM EST = +99; signal line is +85
8/4/17; 10:07 AM EST = +83; signal line is +84 but algorithm remains long
8/4/17; 9:36 AM EST = +99; signal line is +84
8/4/17; 9:00 AM EST = +83; signal line is +82
8/3/17; 3:52 PM EST = +83; signal line is +82
8/3/17; 3:42 PM EST = +99; signal line is +81
8/3/17; 1:57 PM EST = +83; signal line is +79
8/3/17; 1:12 PM EST = +67; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
8/3/17; 1:07 PM EST = +83; signal line is +77
8/3/17; 12:52 PM EST = +99; signal line is +76
8/3/17; 11:52 AM EST = +83; signal line is +73
7/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +99; signal line is +71

July Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-07 Available from Amazon; All-Time Record Stock Market Highs Continue; DOW 22093, NYA 12013, SPX 2484, COMPQ 6461, NDX 5996, RUT 1452, TRAN 9764; Obamacare Repeal and Replace Bill Fails in Senate; US Dollar Index Drops Euro Pops; Government Leaks; Whitehouse Drama; Humans Embrace Chip Implants the Mark of the Beast

The July Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-07 is available through AmazonThe historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and for individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue higher.

July Cover Highlights;
ALL-TIME RECORD STOCK MARKET HIGHS CONTINUE
DOW 22093, NYA 12013, SPX 2484, COMPQ 6461, NDX 5996, RUT 1452, TRAN 9764
OBAMACARE REPEAL AND REPLACE BILL FAILS IN SENATE
US DOLLAR INDEX DROPS EURO POPS
GOVERNMENT LEAKS
WHITEHOUSE DRAMA
HUMANS EMBRACE CHIP IMPLANTS THE MARK OF THE BEAST

The July chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs. India’s BSE Sensex is above 32K. The Dow Industrials print above 22K in early August another milestone. The Dow Transports, however, are sinking like a stone. As July ends and August begins, the Dow Industrials (INDU or DJI) and the NYSE Composite (NYA) are printing record highs while the other indexes watch. Either the Dow and NYA are leading the broad market higher going forward, or, these two indexes will roll over to the downside. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is below its 50-day MA which will be tested in the days ahead.

The US dollar index and euro make big moves; these currency baskets move inverse to each other since they are weighted with each other’s currency. The dollar is sinking so the euro is bouncing. The euro tagged 1.19. Both the euro and dollar are testing their 200-week MA’s, resistance for the euro and support for the dollar, and that battle continues for the days ahead.

The daily Whitehouse drama continues with personnel changes occurring after only six months. The Russia and other investigations continue. Leaks from the government are damaging President Trump and the country. There are five times as many leaks occurring as compared to prior presidents.

There are democrats and liberals that pursue a progressive agenda for the country that are seeking to undermine and damage the president as well as establishment demopublican and republocrat politicians that do not want their beltway parties to end that have a vested interest in seeing the president fail. These groups are referred to as the ‘deep state’ that continue leaking sensitive government information hoping to embarrass and damage President Trump. America has become ill.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The July 2017-08 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 9/2/17.

Charts, technical analysis, trading commentary and blog posts on the KE Stone websites (Keystone the Scribe, The Keystone Speculator and Keybot the Quant) are supported by the advertising revenue, donations and book sales. The sites do not receive advertising credit unless you disable your ad-blocking software so your cooperation is appreciated. Proceeds aid charities.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in full control. A pre-scheduled number prints last evening for the EOM and the algo number remains 28 points above the signal line.

Bears are smacked around day after day by the bulls. Bears need either VIX above 11.28, SOX under 1076 or GTX under 2211, higher volatility, lower chips or lower commodities, respectively, to stop the upside rally in the stock market and introduce negativity. Keybot likely needs at least two of these parameters to turn bearish to flip the model short. The beat goes on.

8/6/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/17; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +99; signal line is +71
7/30/17; 7:00 PM EST = +99; signal line is +70

Sunday, July 30, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish with the stock indexes at record highs. For the new week of trading, the bears need to push the VIX above 11.33 or they got nothing. If VIX remains under 11.33, the bulls will keep floating the stock market higher.

The bears likely need at least one other parameter to flip bearish in addition to volatility to get the model to flip to the short side. The algo is tracking the XLF 24.41 level and the RTH 80.75 level. A breach of either level will create a strong leg lower for stocks and set Keybot up for a move to the short side. So bears need weaker banks and retail stocks.

For now, the bulls rule. Watch VIX 11.33. Keybot prints the EOM number on Monday evening and also a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning before the opening bell. The bulls remain in firm control with the algo number 29 points above the signal line.

8/6/17; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/17; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/17; 7:00 PM EST = +99; signal line is +70
7/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +99; signal line is +68

Saturday, July 29, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend as the bulls slap the bears around for another day. The VIX comes up to the 11.30-11.33 area called out by the algo ahead of time but is spanked back down. That told you that the bears got nothing.

The pre-scheduled number prints and results in a one tick decrease for the algo number from the maximum +100 to +99. The algo number remains 31 points above the signal line with the bulls in full control.

VIX 11.33 will be key on Monday. Bulls rule the stock market as long as VIX remains under 11.33. Also, it looks like the banks and retail stocks will play a key role. The week ahead can be laid out once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. Trading for the month of July ends on Monday at 4 PM EST (EOM) and August trading begins Tuesday morning.

7/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +99; signal line is +68
7/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +66

Friday, July 28, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish heading into the Friday session to end the week. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. The algo has not printed any numbers this week since Tuesday and sits at the maximum +100 level. These are historic market times.

The bears need higher volatility to set a firm path lower for the stock market. The bears need VIX above 11.33 (now at 10.94 only 39 pennies away) and the stock market will begin dropping like a stone. If VIX remains under 11.33, the stock market will stabilize and move sideways with an upside bias.

Bears will also benefit from GTX under 2205, SOX under 1075 and XLF under 24.40; lower commodities, chips and banks, respectively. The bears likely need the VIX to turn bearish and at least one of the three parameters in this paragraph to turn bearish for the algo to flip to the short side. If VIX moves above 11.33, consider the caution flag to be out and then watch these three parameters to gauge how much downside juice the bears have. If these three parameters remain bullish, the bears got nothing.

7/30/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +66

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Retail stocks pop higher so the bulls slap the bears in the face. Slap, slap. Then  commodities rally further slapping the bears. Slap, slap. The algo number is at the maximum level at +100; it is pegged into the ceiling. All parameters and sentiment are euphoric.

The bears need lower commodities to stop the upside rally. Bears need GTX under 2202.90 (now at 2203.21). Bears will also benefit from RTH under 80.63 (now at 81.51). These are historic and epic times in markets. The bears are relentlessly beaten each day. As they say in the US Army, 'the beatings will continue until moral improves'. If bears want to fight back, they need to push commodities and retail stocks lower. The bulls are in full control dancing, drinking and singing songs.

7/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +66
7/25/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +64
7/25/17; 9:41 AM EST = +86; signal line is +62
7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +59

Sunday, July 23, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the bulls slapping the bears around each day. Slap, slap. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 11 points above the signal line. Keybot did not print any numbers on Friday. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning. The month of July ends on Monday, 7/31/17, next week.

The market bulls are in command of all market parameters except commodities and retail. Bulls need RTH above 80.65 (now at 80.34 creating negativity in the stock market) and GTX above 2204 (now at 2170) to create more upside juice for the stock market. Retail stocks are the key. The stock market will accelerate into the stratosphere if RTH moves above 80.65.

Market bears need weaker financials and copper and higher volatility to stop the stock market rally and create bearishness. The algo is most fixated on tracking XLF 24.32 (now at 24.80 creating bullishness in the stock market). If XLF falls under 24.32, the imminent turn will be in play, and if the SPX also falls under 2465, Keybot will likely flip short. So if you are bearish on the stock market, the one key thing you want to see is weaker banks.

If commodities and retail stocks remain bearish, and financials and volatility bullish, stocks will float along sideways with a slight upward bias.

7/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/25/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +59
7/20/17; 1:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +58

Friday, July 21, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo printed one number yesterday. Bulls need higher retail stocks and commodities but they are leaking lower. Bears need lower financials and higher volatility but those two parameters remain bullish.

RTH above 80.65 will provide bull juice. XLF under 24.32 will provide bear juice. The beat goes on.

7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/17; 1:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +58
7/19/17; 2:47 PM EST = +84; signal line is +57

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as stock indexes continue printing record all-time highs. The algo has been idling sideways all week thus far but starting at lunch time today goes wild printing seven numbers. The pre-scheduled number printed before the opening bell. It is always interesting to see Keybot sleeping and not printing numbers and then all of a sudden begin printing numbers like a madman.

The bulls remain in control with the algo number 27 points above the signal line. Note the +100 print which is maxed out to the upside. The bullish euphoria does not get any better than a +100.

Everything is going the bull's way and RTH above 80.68 (now at 80.55) will continue sending stocks into the stratosphere. It is all about retail stocks on Thursday.

The market bears need RTH to remain under 80.68, GTX to move under 2207.08 (now at 2209.02), XLF under 24.32 and/or VIX above 11.44. Keybot likely wants to see at least 2 of the three (GTX, XLF and VIX) parameters to turn bearish to flip the model short.

Retail stocks and commodities rule the roost. Bulls win with higher retail stocks. Bears win with lower commodities. The beat goes on.

7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/17; 2:47 PM EST = +84; signal line is +57
7/19/17; 1:57 AM EST = +100; signal line is +55
7/19/17; 1:47 PM EST = +86; signal line is +53
7/19/17; 1:37 PM EST = +70; signal line is +52
7/19/17; 1:13 PM EST = +86; signal line is +52
7/19/17; 12:31 PM EST = +70; signal line is +50
7/19/17; 11:52 AM EST = +86; signal line is +49
7/19/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +49
7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the week continues along. Keybot has not printed any numbers this week and is simply idling along unimpressed with the price action. The bulls need either GTX above 2206 and/or RTH above 80.63 to verify that more stock market all-time highs are ahead. Bulls are cheering for higher commodities and retail stocks.

The market bears need XLF under 24.30 and/or VIX above 11.45 to stall the rally and create negativity. Bears likely need both financials and volatility to turn bearish for Keybot to want to flip to the short side. Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number for this week on Wednesday morning before the opening bell. The bulls are running the show unless financials drop or if volatility spikes higher.

7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48

Sunday, July 16, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading begins. The bulls need either GTX above 2209 and/or RTH above 80.74 to verify that more stock market all-time highs are ahead. Bulls are cheering for higher commodities and retail stocks.

The market bears need JJC under 29.80, UTIL under 699.22 and/or VIX above 11.52. Bears likely need 2 of the 3 to turn bearish for Keybot to want to flip to the short side. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning before the opening bell. The bulls are running the show unless copper drops, utilities retreat or if volatility spikes higher.

7/23/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48
7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48

Friday, July 14, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. Copper and utilities run higher pumping the stock market higher. The bulls are slapping the bears in the face. Slap, slap. The pre-scheduled number prints today but nothing else with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. Bulls are partying all weekend long.

UTIL ends the week at 707.35 way above the critical 699.22 level in play for all of next week. Everything is going the bull's way. The two major areas that the stock market bulls will need to move equities higher are the retail stocks and commodities. Bears need lower copper and utilities and higher volatility. The VIX is down to 9.51 at and near the lowest level in its history.

7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
7/11/17; 11:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48

Thursday, July 13, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo is idling along this week and has not printed any numbers since Tuesday. The bulls have been cruising along with the Dow printing record highs. Utilities move higher, copper moves higher and volatility sinks the VIX has a 9-handle. To use a baseball analogy for the market bears, that is one, two, three strikes yer out at the ole ball game. The bulls rule.

The algo is tracking retail, copper and utilities as the key parameters currently impacting broad stock market direction. Market bulls need RTH above 80.75 (now at 79.84) to take stocks higher. Market bears need JJC under 29.80 (now at 30.25) and/or UTIL under 697.28 (now at 703) to stop the market rally. If 1 of these 2 turn bearish, the stock market rally is over. If both turn bearish and the SPX slips below 2442, Keybot may flip short.

Pay attention to utilities since there is another changing of the guard occurring for next week. The UTIL 697.28 number will expire at 4 PM EST tomorrow and be replaced with 699.22 as the bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week. If UTIL finishes the week below 699.22, that is a big feather in the bear's cap and will indicate that stocks will likely open lower on Monday morning. Bulls will rejoice if UTIL stays above 699.22.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST tomorrow one-half hour after the opening bell. The bulls are cruising slapping the bears around. Slap, slap.

7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/11/17; 11:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish after printing a couple of numbers in the Tuesday session. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 22 points above the signal line. Note how UTIL dropped to 697 but bounced. The bears needed that to fail.

The bears need either UTIL under 697.28, JJC under 29.81 and/or VIX above 11.56 to create downside selling pressure in the stock market. Any one parameter flipping bearish will halt any upside rally in stocks. The model likely needs to see 2 of the 3 to flip bearish for Keybot to flip bearish.

7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/11/17; 11:40 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
7/11/17; 11:24 AM EST = +56; signal line is +48
7/10/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2425; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips ot the long side after Monday's opening bell at SPX 2425. Higher utilities, copper and chips and lower volatility drive the stock market higher. As always, watch out for a potential whipsaw move back to the short side. For now, the bulls are in full control with the algo number 22 points above the signal line.

Market bears need UTIL under 697.28, JJC under 29.78 or VIX above 11.57 to prevent the stock market from moving higher. If one parameter flips bearish consider the caution flag out. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish consider the imminent turn to be in play. The algo likely wants to see 2 of the 3 turn bearish before flipping the model short. Bears also benefit from lower semiconductors. Bulls benefit from higher retail stocks and commodities.

For the SPX starting Tuesday at 2427, price will accelerate higher if 2432 is hit. The bears will accelerate the downside if 2422 prints. A move through 2423-2431 is sideways action for Tuesday.

On the last trade, the Keybot computer model gains +0.7% now up +2.2% on the year. The actual trading by the algorithm gains +1.3% and is now positive on the year up +0.7%. It took over one-half year but the algo finally provides a positive return on the year. The benchmark SPX is up +8.3% on the year. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/10/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2425; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +8.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.7%)
7/9/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 3:51 PM EST = +54; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 2:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is +49
7/7/17; 1:04 PM EST = +54; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 12:58 PM EST = +38; signal line is +49
7/7/17; 12:52 PM EST = +24; signal line is +50
7/7/17; 12:46 PM EST = +40; signal line is +53
7/7/17; 12:20 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 12:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +54
7/7/17; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55
7/7/17; 11:42 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
7/7/17; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +55
7/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +57
7/5/17; 10:57 AM EST = +38; signal line is +58
7/5/17; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +59
7/3/17; 11:31 AM EST = +38; signal line is +60
7/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +54; signal line is +61
6/30/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +62
6/29/17; 3:43 PM EST = +54; signal line is +63
6/29/17; 12:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +64
6/29/17; 9:47 AM EST = +54; signal line is +65
6/28/17; 10:42 AM EST = +70; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains short
6/27/17; 3:02 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66
6/27/17; 2:33 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains short
6/27/17; 1:50 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68
6/27/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/25/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/21/17; 2:41 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/21/17; 2:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67
6/21/17; 9:41 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/20/17; 12:28 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67; go short 2442; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +4.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.6%)

Sunday, July 9, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish moving into the new week of trading but the algo number is 6 points above the signal line and Keybot is champing at the bit to go long. The market bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it especially with UTIL printing at 702 above the critical 697.28 bull-bear line in the sand. The only thing that bulls do not want is a gap-up open. It is far better for bulls if price simply moves higher at a steady pace and Keybot will likely flip long if the SPX prints above 2427.

The market bears have their work cut out for them if they want to continue pressing the stock market lower. Bears need UTIL under 697.28, SOX under 1054.14, JJC under 29.71 and/or VIX above 11.58. Thus, bears need lower utilities, chips and copper and higher volatility. If any 1 of the 4 parameters turns bearish this will stall the upside rally in stocks. If two turn bearish, the bears will begin growling strongly again. if 3 or all 4 of the parameters turn bearish, stocks will be dropping like a stone.

The big initial fight at the opening bell will likely involve semiconductors since the SOX  price is at 1054.90 only 76 cents from the 1054.14 bull-bear line in the sand (currently creating stock market bullishness). Thus, as chips go, so goes the market. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning one-half hour after the opening bell.

7/16/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/14/17; 10:00 AM EST =
7/9/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 3:51 PM EST = +54; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, July 8, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after the smoke clears from Friday with the algorithm going crazy printing 11 numbers. The algo wants to flip long but the necessary parameters have not yet latched to permit the move. UTIL finishes above 702, which is above the important 697.28 number which is in play all next week. Thus, the bulls have another feather in their cap come Monday morning. The bulls should be able to flip the model long on Monday and would be best off to see the stock market move up slowly and not gap up after the opening bell but time will tell. Next week can be set up after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

7/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/17; 3:51 PM EST = +54; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 2:24 PM EST = +38; signal line is +49
7/7/17; 1:04 PM EST = +54; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains short

Friday, July 7, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The bulls are pumping chips higher and crushing volatility to send the SPX higher. The algo is a single hair away from flipping long. The algo has already printed 9 numbers today including the pre-scheduled number.

If the SPX can move above 2426.82 and hold if for 2 minutes and more, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Price is at 2426.46. This is high drama.


Stock market bears need to send SOX under 1054.14 or VIX above 11.58 to stop the bullish rally in equities. Market bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it.


Pay attention to utilities at the closing bell. Keybot will be tracking UTIL 697.28 all next week as a bull-bear line in the sand. UTIL is at 702.20 right now which is above which will create bullishness for the stock market next week. Watch where UTIL closes at 4 PM since this is where it starts on Monday morning. Bulls will have an advantage in the stock market if UTIL is above 697.28 over the next week. Bears will create downside activity in the stock market if UTIL moves below 697.28.

7/9/17; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/17; 1:04 PM EST = +54; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 12:58 PM EST = +38; signal line is +49
7/7/17; 12:52 PM EST = +24; signal line is +50
7/7/17; 12:46 PM EST = +40; signal line is +53
7/7/17; 12:20 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
7/7/17; 12:00 PM EST = +38; signal line is +54
7/7/17; 11:44 AM EST = +54; signal line is +55
7/7/17; 11:42 AM EST = +38; signal line is +55
7/7/17; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +55
7/6/17; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +57

Note Added 1:46 PM EST: SPX price pokes higher but then retreats again. Bulls need to push above SPX 2426.92 and hold that level and higher to flip Keybot long.