Sunday, June 25, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market drama continues. The algorithm is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line but the internal programming rules will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 2441, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The market bulls need a slow and steady rise in stocks rather than a gap-up move at the opening bell on Monday morning.

The market bears can begin pushing strongly lower if either copper or the banks weaken. Bears need either JJC under 29.44 (now at 29.77) and/or XLF under 23.72 (now at 23.89). Either parameter will create immediate selling in stocks. Both flipping to the bear camp will create a strong downside move in stocks. If VIX moves above 11.60, equities will be tumbling lower in earnest as a major selling event will be underway.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The month, second quarter and first half of the year ends on Friday, EOM, EOQ2, EOH1, respectively.

For Monday, bulls are cheering for SPX 2441 and higher to claim victory ahead. Bears are cheering for JJC under 29.44 or XLF under 23.72 which will cause stocks to sell off. Watch the copper futures trading overnight for hints and listen to any bank news in the early morning.

7/2/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/17; 10:00 AM EST =
6/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
6/25/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/21/17; 2:41 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short

Thursday, June 22, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line. Copper is controlling broad stock market direction. JJC 29.43 is the bull-bear line in the sand and price is at 29.47 which creates slight lift in stocks. Bulls win if JJC remains above 29.43 and if SPX moves above 2442, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If stocks begin running higher, RTH above 81.48 will add more upside fuel.

The bears must send copper lower immediately and push JJC under 29.43 to create a downside move in the stock market. If this occurs, bears will set their sights on VIX 11.62 and if price moves above this level, the higher volatility will create stock market carnage.

So JJC 29.43 runs the entire show. As copper goes, so goes the market.

6/25/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/21/17; 2:41 PM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/21/17; 2:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67
6/21/17; 9:41 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains short
6/20/17; 12:28 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67; go short 2442; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +4.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.6%)

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 2442 at lunchtime today. Lo and Behold! Sound the seven trumpets! After several fake-outs to the downside over the last couple weeks, the algo finally flips into the bear camp. As always, remain alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side tomorrow.

Commodities, copper and weak retail stocks are causing the sell off in equities. Copper, retail stocks and volatility are most directly impacting stock market direction currently; watch JJC 29.41, RTH 81.50 and VIX 11.62. These three parameters determine if the bears continue to win going forward, or, if the bulls retake control.

Copper and retail stocks are in the bear camp creating market downside. Volatility is in the bull camp creating market upside. Market bears need VIX above 11.62 (now at 10.86) and stocks will begin falling apart in earnest to the downside.

Market bulls need either JJC above 29.41 (now at 29.06) and/or RTH above 81.50 (now at 80.63). Bulls got nothing unless they pump copper and/or retail stocks higher.

Thus, watch copper futures trading overnight for a hint on stock market direction tomorrow (Wednesday). Ditto volatility. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Also listen for any news on retail stocks; if it is good news that tells you the bulls will stage a comeback. If the retail news is bad that will give extra strength to bears to push stocks lower.

On the last trade, the Keybot the Quant algorithm computer program gains +2.2% and is now up +1.5% on the year. The actual trading is nearly back to flat on the year after a weak start due to the low volatility and sideways choppy stock market activity. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. The benchmark S&P 500 is up a huge +9.1% this year and the first half of the year is not even over.

Bears are cheering for VIX 11.62 since carnage will result. Bulls need JJC 29.41 or RTH 81.50 which will stop the stock market selling and restart the upside rally. If volatility remains bullish and copper and retail stocks bearish, the stock market will stagger along sideways with a slight downward bias. The caution flag remains out since tomorrow will be a very important day to see if the bears develop downside legs, or not.

6/25/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/17; 12:28 PM EST = +54; signal line is +67; go short 2442; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +4.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -0.6%)
6/20/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
6/19/17; 1:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67
6/19/17; 12:58 PM EST = +86; signal line is +67
6/19/17; 10:58 PM EST = +70; signal line is +66
6/19/17; 10:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
6/19/17; 10:07 PM EST = +70; signal line is +66
6/18/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
6/16/17; 10:00 AM EST =+54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
6/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
6/15/17; 3:57 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
6/15/17; 12:27 PM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/15/17; 10:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/14/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
6/13/17; 1:26 PM EST = +86; signal line is +72
6/13/17; 11:01 AM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/13/17; 10:11 AM EST = +86; signal line is +71
6/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
6/12/17; 3:08 PM EST = +86; signal line is +71
6/12/17; 9:45 AM EST = +72; signal line is +71
6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +72
6/8/17; 10:05 AM EST = +86; signal line is +71
6/7/17; 1:30 PM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/7/17; 12:53 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/7/17; 11:58 AM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/5/17; 3:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
6/5/17; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69
6/4/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
6/2/17; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/30/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/30/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69
5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69
5/25/17; 2:36 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69
5/25/17; 11:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +69
5/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68
5/25/17; 10:57 AM EST = +86; signal line is +68
5/25/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68
5/24/17; 3:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +67
5/24/17; 2:08 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66
5/24/17; 12:26 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66
5/24/17; 12:24 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65
5/24/17; 12:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long
5/24/17; 11:01 AM EST = +68; signal line is +66
5/23/17; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65
5/23/17; 2:28 PM EST = +100; signal line is +63
5/23/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +62
5/23/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +59
5/22/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58
5/22/17; 9:38 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2390; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -5.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 13 points under the signal line. The market bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Copper and retail stocks have failed. JJC is under the critical 29.43 and RTH is under the 81.51 bull-bear line both creating stock market weakness.

If the SPX drops under 2442, and remains under heading lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The imminent turn is very much in play right now. High drama. The SPX is at 2445 and has printed a LOD so far at 2444.07. Bears need to eat some spinach like Popeye so they can push a few points lower if they want to start a stock market selloff.

If the VIX moves above 11.62, the stock market will be tumbling lower in earnest. Market bulls will restart the happy upside in stocks if JJC moves above 29.43 or if RTH moves above 81.51. The beat goes on. Do the bears finally have the oomph to flip the model short or do the bulls slap them in the face again like the last couple weeks?

6/25/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
6/19/17; 1:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67

Monday, June 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The euphoric bull party continues. Keybot has been champing at the bit to go short but the parameters will not latch to allow the move, hence, the robot remains long and stocks float higher.

Retail stocks and copper are controlling stock market direction currently. Watch JJC 29.43 and RTH 81.51 as the bull-bear lines in the sand. Both are playing cat and mouse games today oscillating above and below their key levels. JJC price sits exactly on the 29.43 level that the algo calls out. Isn't that something? Obviously, as copper goes, so goes the stock market.

The RTH slips below 81.51 but it is a game of pennies. Bulls win big with RTH above 81.51 and JJC above 29.43. Bears win big with RTH below 81.51 (which it is as this is typed on Monday afternoon 2 PM EST 6/19/17) and JJC under 29.43 (this battle is in progress).

If you want markets to sell off, you need to see copper moving lower. If you are bullish, you want copper and retail stocks to move higher. The imminent turn notation remains in the title line because JJC slipping under 29.43 would place the algo in position to go short again.

6/25/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/17; 1:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67
6/19/17; 12:58 PM EST = +86; signal line is +67
6/19/17; 10:58 PM EST = +70; signal line is +66
6/19/17; 10:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
6/19/17; 10:07 PM EST = +70; signal line is +66
6/18/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +66 but algorithm remains long
6/16/17; 10:00 AM EST =+54; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long
6/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
6/15/17; 3:57 PM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
6/15/17; 12:27 PM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/15/17; 10:37 AM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/14/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

Thursday, June 15, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. Copper failed yesterday but is trading marginally higher this morning. As long as JJC remains below 29.47, the softness in the stock market should continue. Bulls need JJC back above 29.47 as soon as possible.

Keybot wants to flip short but the all the parameters are not yet latching to allow the move. If the SPX drops under 2428 this morning (Thursday), the algo will likely flip short but the market bears need a slow and steady move lower not a gap-down or plunge lower that typically leads to a spike higher. Bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. The SPX dropped to yesterday's target but then bounced into the closing bell.

The market selling will seriously accelerate if VIX moves above 11.64. If stocks sell off but the VIX does not move above 11.64, the selling event will likely be short-lived and the bulls will recover.

Thus, bears win big and the model will likely flip to the short side if the SPX price moves down through 2428 heading lower. Extra juice and a downside confirmation occurs with VIX above 11.64.

Higher copper will save the market bulls. If JJC moves above 29.47, the market bulls are back on easy street with the stock market moving higher. Copper and volatility are the two main parameters controlling broad stock market direction currently. Bears win big with VIX above 11.64. Bulls win big with JJC above 29.47.

6/18/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/17; 10:00 AM EST =
6/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
6/14/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
6/13/17; 1:26 PM EST = +86; signal line is +72

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the daily market drama continues. The algo is champing at the bit to go short yesterday but the parameters would not line up to allow the move. Copper is the main parameter controlling broad stock market direction currently.

Watch JJC 29.48 the bull-bear line in the sand. Price is at 29.50 only two pennies on the bull side creating stock market lift. Bulls must send copper higher while bears need to send copper lower. If JJC drops under 29.48 and the SPX drops under 2431, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is back in the title line. Copper is down -0.3% in current trading so that would send JJC under 29.48 at the opening bell.

Volatility also remains important. Bulls can maintain buoyancy in the stock market as long as VIX remains under 11.63 now at 10.25. Stocks will collapse lower if the VIX moves above 11.63.

The big Fed decision and press conference is on tap this afternoon so there may be a wild ride in the market ahead. Watch JJC 29.48 and SPX 2431 since these two parameters will tell the market story today.

6/18/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/17; 10:00 AM EST =
6/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
6/13/17; 1:26 PM EST = +86; signal line is +72
6/13/17; 11:01 AM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/13/17; 10:11 AM EST = +86; signal line is +71
6/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
6/12/17; 3:08 PM EST = +86; signal line is +71
6/12/17; 9:45 AM EST = +72; signal line is +71
6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +72

Sunday, June 11, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long despite Friday's turmoil and drama. Friday's wild price action was likely due to algorithms gone mad. Price levels were triggered in the tech stocks and the selling accelerated and that money rotated into the retail and bank stocks. Keybot did not print any numbers on Friday. The bulls remain in the driver's seat.

Volatility is currently the top parameter most impacting broad stock market direction. The VIX is at 10.70. The market bears need the VIX to print above 11.64 to create substantive stock market selling. Although higher volatility will stall the market rally, the downside would be limited and Keybot will likely not flip short. Watch to see if the VIX jumps above 11.64, then after a short while comes back below 11.64, then after a short while back above 11.64, this jogging action will hint that a move to the downside for the stock market and higher volatility is at hand.

Market bears also benefit from lower copper. Bears need JJC under 29.40 and it begins the week at 30.02. A combo of lower copper and higher volatility will smack the stock market sharply lower.

Bulls will remain on easy street if the VIX remains under 11.64. Market bulls will benefit if commodities move higher. Bulls need GTX above 2267 now at 2158.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week on Friday one before the opening bell and one shortly after. The epic market event this week is the Federal Reserve rate decision and forecasts, and Chair Yellen press conference, on Wednesday afternoon. The market price activity may be historic.

6/18/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/17; 10:00 AM EST =
6/16/17; 9:00 AM EST =
6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +72
6/8/17; 10:05 AM EST = +86; signal line is +71

Friday, June 9, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. The circus is in full swing this week with the UK election, ECB meeting and former FBI Director Comey testimony on Capitol Hill. Keybot was champing at the bit go short but all of the internal parameters would not latch so the algo remains long and the algo number is now back above the signal line. The banks rallied strong which was a direct punch to the bear's face.

Copper also rallied which was a kick in the bear's pants. The battle for market direction is most impacted currently by copper and volatility. Both are in the bull camp creating the upside and new highs in stocks. Market bears must either push JJC under 29.38 and/or VIX above 11.62 to create market selling. If JJC drops under 29.38 and the SPX drops under 2428, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Copper, however, is up +1% as this is typed.

Market bulls need stronger commodities to push stocks higher. GTX above 2268 will create more upside strength in the stock market but price languishes down at 2149. Bears would benefit from lower banks, if XLF falls under 23.56, but price is at a lofty 23.84 after yesterday's rally. The beat goes on.

6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/8/17; 10:05 AM EST = +86; signal line is +71
6/7/17; 1:30 PM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/7/17; 12:53 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/7/17; 11:58 AM EST = +70; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
6/5/17; 3:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long

Monday, June 5, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short again. Looks like last week's action is being repeated again this week. XLF fails through the critical 23.55 level so bearishness enters into stocks that drift lower into the closing bell. The weakness, however, is not enough for Keybot's internal parameters to all latch to permit the move to the bear side, so the drama will continue tomorrow.

If SPX drops under 2434 tomorrow (Tuesday), Keybot will likely flip short. Market bulls need stronger banks and must push XLF back above 23.55 pronto or they will be in trouble. It's all about the banks. The beat goes on.

6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/17; 3:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long
6/5/17; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo finally resolves last week's drama with the bull's winning by driving the banks higher. XLF rises to 23.59 above the key bull-bear line in the sand at 23.55 so the stock market remains buoyant and the bears are slapped in the face. Slap, slap.

Copper continues to sag lower which is bear friendly but the banks are running the show. The VIX remains under 10 rewarding the bulls. XLF 23.55 is the key to market direction. If XLF drops under 23.55 and the SPX drops under 2428, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The bulls win going forward if they keep the XLF above 23.55. The beat goes on.

6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/17; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69
6/4/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long

Sunday, June 4, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The market strangeness continues. The algo has wanted to flip short for the last four trading days but the internal programming parameters will not fully latch to allow the move. This is the longest period of time that the model has gone without flipping in the direction the algo number and signal line call out. A couple prior times over the nine-year history of the Keybot the Quant algo took three days to flip but last week's action is unprecedented.

Keybot is champing at the bit to go short. If SPX falls below 2428, Keybot will likely flip short.

The week ahead may be very epic. Keybot wants to go short but markets float higher. There is a major disconnect occurring. The market bulls can prove that up is the correct path ahead if either XLF moves above 23.57 (now at 23.45) and/or JJC moves above 29.40 (now at 29.21). So bulls need higher banks and copper to verify the euphoric rise in stock prices. The bulls jammed XLF higher to tag 23.57 on Friday afternoon, but price then reversed and failed.

If the bears keep XLF and JJC in the bear camp, the stock market should reverse and start selling off (it is extremely surprising that markets did not sell off last week). If the VIX moves above 11.70 (now at 9.75), equities will be tumbling lower in earnest but the bulls have done a great job at keeping volatility low which elevates stocks.

Utilities continue their run higher which is a feather in the bull's cap going forward. Bears can create market weakness with UTIL under 700 but price remains elevated way up at 732.

On Thursday, 6/8/17, the UK elections, ECB policy meeting and FBI Director Comey testimony on Capitol Hill all occur at the same time. The FOMC rate decision and press conference is on 6/14/17 only 8 trading days away. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

The banks (XLF 23.57), copper (JJC 29.40) and SPX 2428 tell you everything you need to know concerning broad stock market direction.

6/11/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/4/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long
6/2/17; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long

May Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-05 is Available from Amazon; Global Stock Market Melt-Up; SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, NYA, NIKK, KOSPI, BSE, DAX and FTSE Record Highs; SPX 2400+; INDU 21.1K+; COMPQ 6200+; NDX 5800+; Bitcoin 2792; Gold Golden Cross; WTIC Oil Death Cross; WTIC Oil 43; Brent Oil 46; Macron Elected President of France; Trump Fires FBI’s Comey; North Korea Turmoil; Venezuela and Brazil in Crisis; Puerto Rico Bankruptcy

The May Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-05 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time stock market highs printing in the major indexes around the world. The one-half of the United States that owns stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States, that do not own stocks, watch the rich get richer while they become poorer.

The huddled masses continue struggling through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor in America is the widest in five decades. The United States is experiencing a gilded age (created by the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers); a society of the have’s and the have not’s.

May Cover Highlights;
GLOBAL STOCK MARKET MELT-UP
SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX NYA, NIKK, KOSPI, BSE, DAX and FTSE RECORD HIGHS
SPX 2400+
INDU 21.1K+
COMPQ 6200+
NDX 5800+
BITCOIN 2792
GOLD GOLDEN CROSS
WTIC OIL DEATH CROSS
WTIC OIL 43
BRENT OIL 46
MACRON ELECTED PRESIDENT OF FRANCE
TRUMP FIRES COMEY
NORTH KOREA TURMOIL
VENEZUELA AND BRAZIL IN CRISIS
PUERTO RICO BANKRUPTCY

The May chronology highlights the drama around the French election and President Macron’s rise to power. The 2017-05 publication chronicles the market reactions to the 5/5/17 and 6/2/17 US Monthly Jobs Reports. The world remains in turmoil with North Korea shooting off missiles, Venezuela and Brazil in chaos and radical Muslims carrying out terrorist attacks. Puerto Rico goes bankrupt with over $70 billion in debt and no money to pay. Despite the geopolitical drama and lackluster economic data, the stock market is pumped higher by central banker easy money. The central bankers are the market.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets to key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policies and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings, etc...

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The June 2017-06 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 7/1/17.

Friday, June 2, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Friday trading session continues. The market drama continues. Keybot wants to flip short all week long but the internal parameters will not fully latch as yet to permit the move. This is the longest time that the algorithm has wanted to flip short but the internal parameters hold it back. The battle continues between banks, copper and volatility.

Banks and copper are bearish creating market weakness while volatility remains low creating stock market upside. The model wants to flip short but likely needs the SPX to drop under 2414 today, hence the turn may be imminent. Price is currently well elevated above here at 2437.

Market bulls need to push either XLF above 23.57 (now at 23.50) or JJC above 29.40 (now at 29.19) to signal that more upside is guaranteed. Market bears need the SPX to drop under 2414 to kick the downside selling into gear and the VIX would need to move above 11.70 to create an accelerated move lower in the stock market.

For now, the bulls continue to enjoy upside. however, the algo number is 15 points below the signal line (this is a disconnect in markets). Markets are very unstable currently with stock indexes melting up to new record highs and yet market internals such as banks, copper and oil sink lower. The beat goes on.

XLF is printing at 23.50 with the bull-bear line in the sand at 23.57. Market bulls win big with XLF above 23.57 while bears will win if XLF remains below and rolls over to the downside. The banks are going to tell the market direction story.

6/4/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/2/17; 9:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/30/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/30/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +69 but algorithm remains long
5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69

Sunday, May 28, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybo the Quant remains long as Americans enjoy hamburgers, hotdogs and apple pie while waving US flags this weekend. US markets are closed until Tuesday morning in honor of Memorial Day tomorrow (Monday).

The market theatrics continue. Bulls and bears battle with the algo number only one point from the signal line verifying the tug-o-war fight. Financials and copper dictate broad stock market direction currently. The bulls need JJC to move up through 29.45 (now at 29.09) to signal the all-clear for upside in stocks and more new all-time record highs. GTX above 2287 (now at 2257) will also provide bull fuel.

Bears need to push XLF under 23.55 (now at 23.61 only 6 pennies above) to begin a forceful selling pattern in the stock market. The VIX moving above 11.77 (now at 9.81) will also provide bear fuel.

If the XLF falls under 23.55, or VIX above 11.77, either one would do although if the bears begin taking control the banks will likely fail first, and if the SPX drops under 2412, Keybot will likely flip short.

Watch copper trading overnight Monday into Tuesday morning since higher copper will place the stock market in party mode to begin the holiday-shortened week of trading. If copper is trading negatively, the market bears will smile.

For the SPX starting the week on Tuesday morning at 2416, the bulls only need one point of upside, to touch the 2417 level and bingo, price will be above 2420 in a flash moving higher printing new all-time highs. The bears need to push  below 2412 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2413-2415 is sideways action on Tuesday and since it is so tight a range, a winner will be decided either sub 2412 for happy bears or above 2416 for happy bulls.

The algorithm is beginning to flag utilities as a major player in market direction again but not quite yet. UTIL begins the week at 720 in a bullish pattern which helps create upside in the broad stock market. For the four-day trading week ahead, UTIL 672.16 and 678.00 are two key levels. With price at 720, the bulls are not worried about utes creating any stock market negativity.

However, for the following week, the week of 6/5/17, the two key UTIL levels are 699.49 and 678.00-ish. This is a whole new ball game. At 4 PM EST on Friday, 6/2/17, at the closing bell, watch to see where UTIL closes since under 699.49 will create negativity in the stock market starting 6/5/17. Utilities rallied strong last week since the bulls already know this situation is developing and they are trying to goose UTIL price higher to get it up and as far away from 699.49 as possible. Watch UTIL closely this week.

Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday, the EOM print on Wednesday and another number on Friday morning. XLF 23.55, JJC 29.45 and SPX 2412 tell you everything you need to know for broad stock market direction on Tuesday. The beat goes on.

6/4/17; 7:00 PM EST =
6/2/17; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/17; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69
5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69

Friday, May 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algorithm is very active in the back half of the week. The market bears were pushing lower on Wednesday but did not have enough juice to flip the model short. The pre-scheduled number for this week printed a few minutes ago. The knock-down drag-out fight between bulls and bears continues as evidenced by the 1 point difference between the algo number and signal line. Note that the algo prints another rare and maximum +100 reading yesterday morning.

Watch financials. Bears need XLF under 23.55 (now at 23.62 only 7 pennies above) to begin serious downside selling in stocks. If XLF fails at 23.55 and the SPX falls under 2408, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. VIX moving above 11.78 (now at 9.99) will also help the bears.

Bulls need higher copper and commodities to prove they can take stocks higher. Bulls need JJC above 29.45 (now at 29.17) and it is all clear for upside for equities with the SPX running to 2420 and 2430. Bulls also need GTX above 2287 (now at 2245) which will create a big upside rally. 

Bears are rooting for  weaker banks (XLF under 23.55) while bulls need higher copper (JJC above 29.45). One or the other will win and that tells you the broad stock market direction ahead.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +69
5/25/17; 2:36 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69
5/25/17; 11:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +69
5/25/17; 11:48 AM EST = +70; signal line is +68
5/25/17; 10:57 AM EST = +86; signal line is +68
5/25/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +68
5/24/17; 3:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +67
5/24/17; 2:08 PM EST = +68; signal line is +66
5/24/17; 12:26 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66
5/24/17; 12:24 PM EST = +68; signal line is +65
5/24/17; 12:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +65 but algorithm remains long
5/24/17; 11:01 AM EST = +68; signal line is +66
5/23/17; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the intense market drama continues. Keybot prints an astounding and rare +100 number representing the maximum possible reading for the algorithm (which is an oscillator at its heart). A +100 number represents an off-the-charts uber bullish stock market and likely a significant multi-week, month and/or year top forming.

Comically, the rare +100 number is becoming more and more common. The times that +100 has printed over the near 9-year life of the model is six times; 12/19/16-12/25/16; 1/17/17-1/19/17; 1/31/17; 2/10/17-3/5/17; 4/15/17 and now. Just think, at some point in the future, maybe two or three years down the road, the algo may be printing at -100.

Copper, financials, volatility and commodities continue to rule the roost and dictate broad stock market direction. Note that JJC closed exactly on the 29.47-29.48 level called out by the algorithm before it happened. That is always impressive when it happens with regularity. The banks turned bullish with XLF above 23.55 which created yesterday's rally. Obviously. the pivot from JJC 29.47 dictates market direction. Copper trades lower overnight. The banks, the XLF 23.55 level, remains key as well.

The market bears will benefit if VIX moves above 11.81 (now at 10.49) and/or GTX below 2291 (now at 2301). The key is copper and banks. Bulls will be taking stocks far higher with the SPX running above 2400 if JJC moves above 29.48 and XLF stays above 23.55 with both moving higher.

If JJC dips under 29.47 and moves lower, the stock market rally will stall. If XLF slips under 23.55, stocks will begin selling off more aggressively. The beat goes on.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST =
5/23/17; 3:09 PM EST = +84; signal line is +65
5/23/17; 2:28 PM EST = +100; signal line is +63
5/23/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +62
5/23/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +59
5/22/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side yesterday at SPX 2390. Interestingly, both the commodities (GTX) and volatility (VIX) turned bullish creating higher stock prices. In the afternoon, copper turned bullish which was a punch to the bear's soft belly. Markets remain in the sideways choppy pattern that chews up bulls and bears alike. Low volatility wreaks havoc on trading algorithms.

Copper will immediately tell you broad stock market direction today. Watch JJC 29.47 at the opening bell. Price is at 29.50 in the bull camp that caused lift in the stock market late yesterday. Market bears need JJC to fall under 29.47 and head lower which will signal that further upside in equities will not occur. Bulls win if copper keeps moving higher. Copper is down -0.5% in trading overnight.

Market bulls need the higher copper to keep the upside going and then need stronger banks. Financials are the laggard and XLF will need to move above 23.55 (now at 23.41) to prove that the SPX will jump above 2400 and rock and roll higher. Bears are fine if they can keep XLF under 23.55 and send JJC under 29.47.

Market bears need JJC under 29.47 and either GTX under 2291 or VIX above 11.81. If 2 of these 3 occur and the SPX drops under 2387, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that only lasted three days, the Keybot computer program loses -0.6% and the actual trading dumps about -1%. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark index is up a healthy +6.7%. The algorithm program is down -0.7%. The actual trading is down about -5% thus far this year. The sideways choppiness should subside in the weeks ahead.

For today, simply watch JJC 29.47, XLF 23.55, VIX 11.81 and GTX 2291. They will tell you everything you need to know about broad stock market direction; copper, banks, volatility and commodities, respectively.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST =
5/22/17; 1:18 PM EST = +84; signal line is +58
5/22/17; 9:38 AM EST = +68; signal line is +57; go long 2390; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2017 = -5.2%)
5/22/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +56
5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55
5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

Sunday, May 21, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish which is surprising considering the market joy late last week. To prove that up is the direction for the stock market one of these four things need to happen; either GTX above 2290 (now only 1 point away at 2289), VIX above 11.77 (now at 12.04), JJC above 29.51 (now at 29.33) or XLF above 23.59 (now at 23.35). Commodities are important along with volatility, copper and financials, respectively.

If either JJC moves above 29.51 and/or XLF above 23.59, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2389, Keybot will likely flip long hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. if either commodities or volatility turn bullish, this may not be enough to cause the algo to go long unless both turn bullish.

Market bears will benefit from weaker retail stocks and the equity market will collapse if RTH loses 80.33 (now at 81.94). Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

5/28/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/26/17; 10:00 AM EST =
5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +55
5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

Friday, May 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side but the bulls are staging a comeback. The algo has not printed any numbers since it went short on Wednesday. Interestingly, the rally action after the Wednesday selloff in stocks does not result in the algorithm printing any higher numbers, so far.

That may change at anytime and Keybot is tracking several key parameters. The upside rally will be confirmed and have legs if XLF moves above 23.59, or VIX below 11.76, or JJC above 29.50 or GTX above 2289. So bulls need higher banks, lower volatility, higher copper and higher commodities. If all four remain bearish, the stock market rally will likely peter out and roll over to the downside.

If one of the four turn bullish, Keybot may be in position to flip back to the long side. Market bears must hold the line on the four parameters listed.

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)

Thursday, May 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side on Wednesday morning at SPX 2376 the market is dragged lower by weak banks and higher volatility. The algo number is 16 points under the signal line with the bears in control. Bears will receive further downside strength if retail stocks weaken with RTH under 80.15 (now causing lift in the stock market at 80.69).

The bulls will signal an end to the stock market selling if either XLF moves above 23.59 (now at 23.06) or VIX under 11.95 (now at 15.59).

Keybot flips short at the same exact SPX 2376 level that it went long at on the way up resulting in zero percent change for the algo program. The actual trading is also flat on the last trade. The benchmark S&P 500 Index remains up +6.1% so far this year. Keybot exited DIA and entered SDS. The 35 day timer has expired from the whipsaw moves in early April so the algo is now using 2x ETF's again.

Bears need weaker retail stocks and weaker semiconductors. Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility. The beat goes on.

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/17; 9:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +56; go short 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.3%)
5/17/17; 9:36 AM EST = +40; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains long
5/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +56
5/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +55
5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/11/17; 11:13 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54
5/11/17; 10:23 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53
5/7/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +53
5/5/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52
5/2/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52
5/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +52
4/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +54; signal line is +50
4/28/17; 3:53 AM EST = +54; signal line is +50
4/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +50
4/25/17; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +49
4/24/17; 3:07 PM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2376; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2017 = -4.5%)

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG-- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints one number to begin the week yesterday confirming the bull strength in stocks. Keybot also prints a number this morning before the opening bell which was a pre-scheduled number for this week. Note how the bulls and bears are battling with both the algo number and signal line number at +54 from late last week through Sunday.

Financials rally yesterday slapping the bears in the face. Slap, slap. Market bears need XLF under 23.61 and if this occurs, along with the SPX moving under 2394, Keybot would likely flip short. Bears would also benefit from VIX above 11.75.

Bulls benefit from XLF remaining above 23.61 and VIX under 11.75. Bulls will prove that more upside is on the way if they boost commodities and copper. GTX would need to move above 2286 and/or JJC above 29.43; either would confirm that the stock market will explode higher.

If the banks fail as explained above, stocks will  crumble lower. XLF is currently printing at 23.76 which is 15 pennies above the critical bull-bear line in the sand.

5/21/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +56
5/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +55
5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/12/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/11/17; 11:13 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

Friday, May 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long during a sleepy week. The algo did not print any numbers until yesterday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning.

The drama with financials continue; the algo identifies the banks as the most important parameter currently impacting stock market direction. The bears need to push XLF under 23.61 to verify that selling in the stock market is at hand. Price is at 23.66 only a nickel away. Bulls must push the banks higher to remain in control of the markets. If XLF drops under 23.61, and the SPX drops under 2382, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line above.

If the VIX moves above 11.95 (now at 10.60), you will see accelerated downside selling in the stock market. Bulls will be able to recover after any selloff in equities as long as they prevent the VIX from moving above 11.95. Bulls will receive upside strength if they push commodities higher. Bulls need to push GTX above 2290 now at 2214.

The beat goes on. Watch XLF 23.61 to see if it fails, if so, stocks will be trending lower. If VIX moves above 11.95, the bottom will fall out in the stock market.

5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST =
5/11/17; 11:13 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54
5/11/17; 10:23 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53
5/7/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +53

Sunday, May 7, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the sideways move through SPX 2330-2400 continues for the last three months. The S&P 500 is at 2399 testing the upper boundary of this sideways channel. The algo number is comfortably 17 points above the signal line.

The bulls need stronger copper and commodities to drive the stock market higher. The bears need lower financials and higher volatility to send stocks lower. Banks are key. Watch XLF 23.58 the top parameter the algo is currently tracking. XLF is at 23.84 on the bull side which creates upside strength in the stock market. Stocks will turn quickly sour if XLF falls under 23.58.

The algo likely needs both XLF under 23.84 and VIX above 12.00 to flip short, however, if XLF comes down to the critical 23.58-ish level, and jogs above and below for a few hours, that may be enough to flip the model short once XLF would fail from 23.58.

Pay attention to XLF 23.58 and VIX 12.00 to gauge broad stock market direction to begin the new week of trading. Copper is important. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

5/14/17; 7:00 PM EST =
5/12/17; 10:00 AM EST =
5/7/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +53
5/5/17; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52
5/2/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +52
5/1/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +52