Tuesday, December 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the bear side as this trading week motors along without Keybot printing any numbers as yet. Stocks keep floating higher. SOX remains in the bear camp and VIX in the bull camp. Neither parameter has flinched to reveal the path ahead for the stock market.

The battle for Wednesday has expanded. Keybot is tracking four key parameters most impacting stock market direction ahead; chips, copper, volatility and utilities. The bulls need either SOX above 1252.80 and/or JJC above 34.80. If either parameter turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2670, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bears need either VIX above 10.76 and/or UTIL below 740.95. Utilities fell during the Tuesday session with UTIL at 748.31. This is extremely important. Next week the key UTIL level will be 746.94, call it 747. As of Friday at 4 PM EST and all next week, if UTIL falls under 747, stocks will begin dropping in earnest. Bulls must send utes higher immediately or they will be in trouble moving into next week. In addition, keep an eye on commodities since GTX under 2377 will create stock market downside.

To boil this down into something simpler, Keybot will likely flip long if SOX moves above 1252-1253 and the SPX moves above 2670. The algorithm will remain short and begin sending stocks lower if the VIX pops above 10.76. VIX futures begin trading at 3 AM EST. Copper futures will also be trading overnight to provide a heads up on how JJC will move on hump day.

Wednesday is a huge day for markets with the FOMC rate decision, forecasts and Chair Yellen's final press conference. One of the parameters above will flinch tomorrow. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week so the market action dictates the way this drama plays out.

12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70

Sunday, December 10, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side from last week from SPX 2636 with the sideways choppy market slop continuing. The stock market remains a coin-flip as evidenced with the algo number only 2 points below the signal line favoring bears by a hair.

The two key parameters controlling stock market direction currently are semiconductors and volatility. Bears will send the stock market lower if VIX moves above 10.76 (now at 9.58). Bulls will take control and send stocks to more record highs if the SOX moves above 1253.80 (now at 1238). One of these two parameters will flinch and tell you the stock market direction ahead.

If the SOX moves above 1253-1254, and the SPX moves above 2652, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

On the last trade, the algorithm computer program gains a couple percent and the actual trading nearly +3%. The Keybot program and the actual trading are each up about +3% this year with 3 weeks remaining in 2017. The benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +18% this year. The global central bankers are money Gods. Keybot exits IWM and enters SDS. The algo is back into the 2x ETF mode again.The low volatility continues wreaking havoc on algorithms this year.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bears are in control but stronger chips will help the bulls regain control. Higher volatility will send stocks lower.

12/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2017 =
12/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/24/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/8/17; 10:08 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/8/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short
12/8/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/8/17; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/7/17; 10:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/5/17; 2:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71; go short 2636; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.7%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.7%)
12/5/17; 12:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
12/5/17; 11:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 2:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 12:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 9:57 AM EST = +54; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 9:51 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +76
12/3/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 3:43 PM EST = +86; signal line is +78
12/1/17; 3:42 PM EST = +70; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 11:58 AM EST = +54; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 11:14 AM EST = +70; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 10:45 AM EST = +86; signal line is +81
12/1/17; 10:22 AM EST = +70; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 9:50 AM EST = +54; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 10:15 AM EST = +70; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 10:02 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/30/17; 9:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 3:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 3:29 PM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 2:44 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 1:42 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 1:24 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 12:21 PM EST = +70; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 12:09 PM EST = +54; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 11:54 AM EST = +70; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:32 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1:50 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1: 42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 10:56 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/16/17; 2:05 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85; go long 2589; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.2%)

Saturday, December 2, 2017

November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-11 is Available from Amazon; Record Highs in World Stock Markets Continue; Dow 24K+; SPX 2600+; Bitcoin 11K+; Tax-Cut Bill; Brexit; Jerome Powell Next Federal Reserve Chairman; Amazon CEO Bezos $100 Billion Man; Tech Stocks Selloff; Flattening Yield Curve; High-Yield Bond Outflows; VIX Flash Crashes to Historic 8.56 Low; Former Trump Adviser Flynn Cooperates with FBI

The November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-11 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher, perhaps forever.

November Cover Highlights;
RECORD HIGHS IN WORLD STOCK MARKETS CONTINUE
DOW 24K+
SPX 2600+
BITCOIN 11K+
TAX-CUT BILL
BREXIT
JEROME POWELL NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN
AMAZON CEO BEZOS $100 BILLION MAN
TECH STOCKS SELLOFF
FLATTENNG YIELD CURVE
HIGH-YIELD BOND OUTFLOWS
VIX FLASH CRASHES TO HISTORIC 8.56 LOW
FORMER TRUMP ADVISER FLYNN COOPERATES WITH FBI

The November chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major US indexes (SPX, INDU or DJI, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA, TRAN or DJT). The Dow overtakes 24,000 and the S&P 500 is above 2600. Bitcoin prints above 11.1K before dropping back.

President Trump continues boasting about the new record highs in stocks taking full credit and responsibility for the joy. Oil is on the move higher with both West Texas and Brent printing at two-year highs.

Jerome “Jay” Powell will be the new Fed chairman and he breezed through a confirmation hearing in November. Former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn cops a plea and decides to cooperate with the FBI investigators. Flynn promptly throws Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, under the bus. Thump, thump.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

In the 2017-11 publication, relive the 400-point intraday drop on Friday, 12/1/17, when it was thought that former Trump adviser Michael Flynn had implicated the president in nefarious deeds. This news story turned out to be not true although Kushner is in trouble.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The December 2017-12 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 1/6/18.

The highly popular ‘Keystone the Scribe’ daily market chronology blog, ‘The Keystone Speculator’ stock, bond and currency (Forex) technical analysis and charts blog and the ‘Keybot the Quant’ algorithm blog are visited by over one-half million people around the world each month. The free original content on these sites is not available anywhere else and only continues if the sites are supported. Thank you. As a universal rule, disable your ad-blocking software for these blogs so the robots can tally proper advertising credit for the sites. The ads are very unobtrusive and benign. Proceeds aid charities.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears keep chomping away trying to create weakness. The algo has been idling in recent days as the stock market continues printing record highs but yesterday goes crazy printing off 11 numbers. The algo wanted to go short but all the internal parameters would not latch to allow the move so Keybot remains on the long side.

Chips, copper and volatility are most impacting stock market direction currently. Market bears need the VIX above 10.66, SOX below 1257 and JJC to remain below 35.07. The market bulls need the VIX to remain below 10.66 (trading at 10.40 as this message is typed), the SOX to remain above 1257 and JJC needs to move above 35.07. As the Thursday session begins, volatility is bullish, semiconductors are bullish and copper is bearish.

If either VIX moves above 10.66 and/or SOX below 1257 (now at 1265), either one would do, and the SPX drops below 2620, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Today is EOM and it appears the bull's will log another up month for the stock market. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this evening.

Bulls are cheering for higher copper which will catapult stocks higher. Bears are hoping for weaker chips and higher volatility, otherwise, they got nothing.

12/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/30/17; 3:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 3:29 PM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 2:44 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 1:42 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 1:24 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 12:21 PM EST = +70; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 12:09 PM EST = +54; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 11:54 AM EST = +70; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

Sunday, November 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The S&P 500 prints above 2600 last Thursday and on Friday closes above 2600 for the first time in history. The bulls, and central bankers, are unstoppable. The algo identifies volatility and banks as the two key parameters most impacting stock market direction currently. The market bears need either VIX above 10.63 and/or XLF below 26.02. If both parameters remain bullish, stocks will continue floating higher.

If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2600, Keybot will likely flip short. Bears need higher volatility and lower banks otherwise the beatings will continue. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week. The month ends on Thursday. November started at SPX 2575.26 so bears would need a 27-point pull back within the next four days to turn the month negative. The bulls remain in firm control of the stock market. The algorithm remains pegged at the epic maximum +100 level.

12/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84

Friday, November 24, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in their glory as the algorithm continues printing the epic +100 highs. Keep watching the VIX 10.65 level for the first sign of cracks in the stock market. If the VIX moves higher and oscillates above and below the 10.65 level this likely hints that stocks will begin selling off. For now, the bulls are on easy street. Keybot remains pegged into the maximum +100 ceiling with all algorithm parameters joyously bullish. The stock market closes at 1 PM EST today.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The key parameter controlling market direction currently is volatility. Stocks will continue higher if the VIX maintains a 9-handle. Market bears need VIX above 10.65 to create stock market selling. Bulls rule the stock market with the VIX below 10.65.

If the VIX turns bearish at 10.65, and the SPX drops below 2589, Keybot will likely flip short. The epic market action continues this year with the algo at the maximum +100 level. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST. US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and will close early on Friday. The beat goes on.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:32 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with the bulls jamming volatility lower to send stocks higher. VIX fell through 11.14 so you knew that the bulls had the upper hand and then a fight occurred at the important VIX 10.67 level identified by Keybot and price failed below sending stocks higher. Isn't is fascinating the algorithm identifies key price points before they occur? VIX closed the session at 10.65 on the bull side of the key 10.67 bull-bear line in the sand. At the same time copper was falling but never fell enough to help the bears. Thus, the bulls slap the bears in the face with the drop in volatility. Slap, slap.

Same routine ahead. Bulls are on easy street and will send the stock market higher with the algo number pegged to the maximum and historic +100. Market bears need either VIX above 10.67 and/or JJC below 34.83. Volatility and copper remain the two parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

If either VIX or JJC turns bearish, either one would do, and the SPX falls below 2578, Keybot will likely flip short. The market bulls have their sights set on SPX 2600 while the bears are praying for higher volatility and lower copper prices. VIX is at 10.27 in early pre-regular session trading and copper futures are trading positively. Bulls slap the bears in the face again. Slap, slap.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:32 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1:50 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1: 42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 10:56 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84

Sunday, November 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as markets chop along sideways. The stock market is a coin-flip as evidenced by the algo number only 2 points above the signal line. The three key parameters controlling broad stock market direction currently are volatility, banks and copper as the previous comments highlight. The VIX came down to the 200-day MA at 11.15 and bounced. When that occurred you knew the bulls did not have the juice to take the stock market higher.

Bears need XLF under 26.00 and/or JJC under 34.79 for the stock market to begins selling off in force. XLF price came down to 26.00-26.03 on Friday and JJC down to 34.79-34.83, testing both levels that Keybot called out ahead of time but prices bounced off both of the key bull-bear lines in the sand so you knew that the market bears did not have the juice to take the stock market lower. Hence, sideways choppy slop. The S&P 500 has basically chopped sideways through the tight 2560-2590 range for the last six weeks.

Bulls need VIX under 11.15 to prove they can take stocks higher and if VIX falls below 10.67, stocks will catapult higher with the SPX leaping above 2600.

Bears need XLF under 26.00 and/or JJC under 34.79 to create stock market selling. If either parameter turns bearish, only one is necessary, and the SPX falls below 2578, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

One of these three parameters volatility, banks or copper will flinch and that will immediately tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning. The stock market is closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Friday is a shortened session closing at 1 PM EST. Watch copper futures trading into Monday morning as well as listening for any news concerning the banks to provide hints on the path ahead for the US stock market.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84

Friday, November 17, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side after more choppy action over the last few days. The algorithm is getting tossed around to and fro like a rag doll. The stock market direction is a toss-up as evidenced by the algo number and signal line at the same basic level.

The algo flipped short on Tuesday then whack; Keybot was smacked back to the bull side yesterday. The price action is sideways choppy slop with bull and bear traps. The Keybot algorithm program and actual trading take marginal losses on the last 2 trades. Keybot cycled from PSQ to DIA for the long side then to SH for the short side now in IWM for the long side. Both the algorithm program and actual trading is flat on the year. The benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +15.6% this year with 6 weeks remaining.

Volatility, copper and banks are dictating stock market direction currently. The VIX bull-bear line in the sand is at 10.67 and price is at 11.62 firmly above creating the negativity in stocks. You can watch the VIX 200-day MA at 11.14 which is a critical bull-bear signal line. Stocks will roll over and selloff as long as the VIX remains above 11.14. Bulls will fight back if the VIX drops under 11.14 and if price loses the 10.67 level, the SPX will launch above 2600.

Watch JJC 34.79 with price only 3 cents on the bull side at 34.82 creating lift in the stock market. Bears will rejoice if JJC drops below 34.79. Copper futures are trading flat.

Watch XLF 26.00 with price at 26.19 on the bull side creating lift in the stock market. Bears will rejoice if XLF drops below 26.00.

Thus, market bulls need to keep copper and banks buoyant while sending the VIX below 11.14 and 10.67. Market bears need to keep volatility elevated while sending either JJC below 34.79 and/or XLF below 26.00. If either JJC or XLF loses the level mentioned, either one would do, and the SPX drops under 2573, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The beat goes on.

11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/16/17; 2:05 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85; go long 2589; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.2%)
11/16/17; 1:14 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short
11/16/17; 11:34 AM EST = +70; signal line is +86
11/15/17; 10:56 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
11/15/17; 10:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +87
11/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +88
11/14/17; 1:46 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:04 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91; go short 2568; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.0%)
11/13/17; 9:54 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 8:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
11/9/17; 1:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 12:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 11:28 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:58 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/9/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +95 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:03 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
11/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +94
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:36 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/27/17; 11:09 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94; go long 2576; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.6%)

Monday, November 13, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market antics continue. The algo printed 8 numbers last Thursday and is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 5 points below the signal line, however, the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 2574 tomorrow (Tuesday), Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Market bears would benefit from a slow steady move lower with the stock market and not a gap down since this may delay the algorithm from flipping short.

Keybot is tracking two parameters that are most greatly impacting broad stock market direction; volatility and the banks. VIX is at 11.50 above the 10.66 bull-bear line identified by Keybot so the bears are happy. XLF is at 26.12 above the 26.00 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls are happy. One of these 2 parameters will flinch and that will dictate stock market direction. Bears will cheer if XLF drops under 26.00. Bulls will throw confetti if VIX drops under 10.66. As the banks go, so go the markets. Copper is also key. Watch JJC 34.88. Price is at 35.65 on the bull side so Doctor Copper creates lift in the stock market.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The sideways choppy slop continues. The S&P 500 has basically moved through the 2565-2595 range for the last month. The beat goes on.

11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/17; 9:54 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 8:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
11/9/17; 1:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 12:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 11:28 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:58 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/9/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +95 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:03 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
11/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot remains on the long side with the algo pegged at the maximum +100 level. The last move from short to long was about a week and one-half ago. Volatility remains the key parameter impacting market direction. VIX 10.62 is the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls are on easy street below while above will usher in serious market selling.

The +100 prints are epic and historic. The initial +100 prints occurred about 11 months ago. It is amazing that almost a year later the algo keeps drifting back up to +100 without any serious pull back in the stock market occurring. You would think a rolling stock market top would take place over a 3 to 6 month period, maybe more, however, the US stock market is joyous for one year straight. It is truly historic and something that many of us may never see again in our lifetimes once the party ends. The +95 number on the signal line is al;so at a record high. It is astounding.

On the last trade, the algo program loses -0.4% and the actual trading -1.4%. Unfortunately, the PSQ ETF was short tech stocks which rallied big. Keybot exited PSQ and entered DIA. The S&P 500 is up a bigtime +15.1% this year. The power of the central bankers is amazing.

Lower copper and retail stocks will help the market bears but the key is volatility currently. Bears need VIX above 10.62 or they got nothing. An imminent turn to the downside will be in play if VIX moves above 10.62. World stock indexes continue printing record highs. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +94
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:36 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/27/17; 11:09 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94; go long 2576; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.6%)
10/27/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains short
10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94
10/25/17; 9:49 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94; go short 2565; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.0%)

Thursday, October 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot flips back to the short side on Wednesday at SPX 2565. The algorithm has not printed any numbers yet today (Thursday). The sideways choppy slop continues. Do not be surprised if Keybot flips back to the long side again in these crazy, erratic and unstable markets.

The key metric controlling stock market direction currently is VIX 10.72. VIX is at 11.00 so the bears are in control. It does not matter if stocks are going up today. If the VIX remains above 10.72, the stock market will roll back over to the downside.

Market bulls win big if the VIX falls below 10.72. This would send equities to new record highs. Watch the VIX 10.72 bull-bear line in the sand very closely the rest of the week.

(Another signal line you can watch, although it is not programmmed into Keybot, is the VIX 200-day MA now at 11.22; this is a key short-term market signal where bulls win below 11.22 and bears win big if the VIX moves above 11.22).

On the last trade, the Keybot algo program lost -0.3% and the actual trading logs a marginal -0.2% loss. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ. The benchmark S&P 500 index, SPX, is up +14.6% this year. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.


VIX 10.72 tells you if the bulls or bears win going forward. If it is bearish, the VIX 11.22 tells you if it will be market carnage, or not.

10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/17; 9:49 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94; go short 2565; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.0%)
10/24/17; 2:40 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 2:20 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/24/17; 2:07 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 1:43 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
10/24/17; 9:48 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 7:59 AM EST = +100; signal line is +92
10/23/17; 3:42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91
10/20/17; 12:23 PM EST = +100; signal line is +90; go long 2572; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but whipsawed late last week Thursday going short then flipping long again on Friday. Usually the algo avoids about 70% or 80% of the bear and bull traps but the drop in the stock market sucked Keybot in last Thursday. That was the day that later in the afternoon the Congress announced an agreement on a budget which paves an easier path to achieving a tax cut bill. Thus, stocks catapulted higher snaring the bear trap. On Friday morning, stocks gap up at the opening bell firmly slapping the bears in the face. Slap, slap.

So the algorithm remains long but Keybot is again champing at the bit to go short. The year is filled with this sideways choppy slop that chews up bulls and bears alike. Keybot is very active in the Tuesday trade printing six numbers. The bulls and bears keep fighting back and forth stealing the ball from each other but neither side is getting very far. The algo number is 8 points below the signal line so Keybot wants to go short.

Volatility is the key parameter impacting broad stock market direction currently. Watch VIX 10.72 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Market bears win big if the VIX stays above 10.72 and moves higher. Bulls win big if the VIX collapses below 10.72. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST overnight so if you cannot sleep check out where the VIX is at early tomorrow morning and it will tell you which way the stock market will move on hump day (the opposite direction).

If VIX remains above 10.72, and the SPX moves below 2566, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Bears, however, would be best off if the SPX price slowly leaked lower under 2566 and a gap-down at the opening bell did not occur. If stocks gap down Wednesday morning, Keybot may delay a move to the short side until beyond 11 AM EST. Markets are extremely erratic and unstable.

The algo logged some nice gains on the long trade that ended 10/19/17 but then gave it back due to the whipsaw on 10/20/17. For the year, the S&P 500 is up a big time +15%. The Keybot algorithm program is up +2.4% and the actual trading is up +3.2% on the year. Keybot was in SPY on the long side and flipped into the 2x SDS ETF for the short side last Thursday. A 35-day timer expired so Keybot went back to using 2x ETF's but this was short-lived. Whack. The whipsaw occurs so the 35-day timer is triggered again and Keybot is back in the single ETF's until at least 11/24/17. Keybot exited SDS with the loss and reentered the single SPY ETF.

The bears have it on a silver platter if they want it. Bears must send volatility higher with the VIX above 11 and 12 and 13 and more. Bulls simply need the VIX under 10.72 on Wednesday morning and they will slap the bears in the face once again. Slap, slap. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. The EOM is only 5 days away.

10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/24/17; 2:40 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 2:20 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/24/17; 2:07 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 1:43 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
10/24/17; 9:48 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 7:59 AM EST = +100; signal line is +92
10/23/17; 3:42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91
10/20/17; 12:23 PM EST = +100; signal line is +90; go long 2572; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)
10/19/17; 10:35 AM EST = +100; signal line is +88 but algorithm remains short
10/19/17; 9:52 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87; go short 2549; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +4.9%)
10/19/17; 9:47 AM EST = +86; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/18/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/16/17; 1:31 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/16/17; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/9/17; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/2/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +85
10/2/17; 3:49 PM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
10/2/17; 10:20 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
10/2/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83
10/2/17; 9:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +82
10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +84; signal line is +82
9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
9/29/17; 9:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82; go long 2511; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The market bears tried to create softness on Monday but the bulls slapped them across the face once again. Keybot remains pegged at the maximum +100 reading indicating epic and historic stock market action occurring.

The bulls are cruising higher this week with the Dow printing above 23,000 yesterday for the first time in history. The algo is tracking retail stocks and volatility currently. Market bears need either RTH under 80.91 (now at 81.10) and/or VIX above 10.76 (now at 10.15). If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 2555, Keybot will likely flip short. If retail stocks remain bullish and volatility remains subdued, the bulls will keep printing new market highs.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in a couple hours time before the opening bell on hump day. The bears can begin a downside move if they can weaken the retail stocks and/or send volatility higher.

10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/18/17; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/17; 1:31 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/16/17; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

Thursday, October 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls keep slapping the bears around day after day. Slap, slap. On Monday, the algo dipped but the model did not flip short; it was a bear trap. The stock market party continues with Keybot pegged to the maximum reading at +100. These are historic and epic markets.

The SPX closes on Wednesday at a new all-time record high at 2555.24. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The algo is most focused on retail stocks and volatility currently. The market bears need either RTH under 80.80 and/or VIX above 10.75 to lock in stock market selling. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2548, Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls simply need retail stocks to remain elevated and volatility low and the upside stock market party will continue.

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/17; 3:52 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/9/17; 3:21 PM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87

Sunday, October 8, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are on a euphoric high with the algo number pinned to the maximum +100 reading. The bears need either lower commodities and copper and/or higher volatility.

Bears need either GTX under 2254, JJC under 33.51 and/or VIX above 10.76. If any one of the three parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 2544, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

If commodities and copper remain strong, and volatility low, the bulls will keep slapping the bears silly day after day. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week shortly after the opening bell on Friday the 13th.

10/15/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/13/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +87
10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86

Thursday, October 5, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market melts-up higher day after day. This is epic and historic stock market action that will be talked about for years to come. The algo does not print any numbers today (Thursday) but prints one number yesterday. The algo is at +100 the maximum possible number. The bullish euphoria is off the charts.

Copper leaps higher. Utilities move higher. Volatility remains low. The bulls slap the bears in the face. Slap, slap. The bears need UTIL under 725.27 to introduce market weakness but this number expires at 4 PM EST Friday and is replaced with 706.91 a far easier number for bulls to beat for all of next week. Everything is going the bulls way.

The bears big hope is likely pinned on volatility. Bears desperately need a higher VIX. The VIX is at 9.19, a plaindrome, and bears need it to move above 10.76 to guarantee stock market selling ahead. If either UTIL moves below 725.27 or VIX above 10.76, either parameter will do, and the SPX moves below 2540, Keybot will likely flip short.

The bulls are singing happy songs showing zero concern for the future since even if a selloff occurs the central bankers will always support higher stock markets forever. Moral hazard. We are witnessing historic market activity in real-time.

The US Monthly Jobs Report drops tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM London; 2:30 PM Central Europe; 9:30 PM Tokyo). Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 9 AM EST Friday morning one-half hour before the opening bell.

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =
10/4/17; 11:05 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo flipped to the long side on Friday morning and remains there but the algo number is now 2 points below the signal line wanting to flip back to the short side. Utilities, copper and volatility are controlling broad stock market direction currently. Note that Keybot is printing +100 numbers, the maximum possible reading indicating that the stock market bullishness is off the charts.

Bulls need UTIL above 725.27, now at 723.59, to prove there is more upside juice ahead for the stock market. The bears need to push the SPX under 2529 and Keybot will likely flip short. The downside move in stocks will be confirmed if either JJC moves under 33.39, now at 33.58, and/or VIX moves above 10.76, now at 9.51.

So bulls need higher utilities and must prevent the SPX from dropping under 2529. The bears need to send the SPX under 2529 to flip the model short then push copper lower and volatility higher to prove that down is the direction ahead.

On the last trade, both the algo model and actual trading lose -0.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +12.2% this year that is impressive and surprising. The algo program is up about +2% this year and actual trading up about +3%. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY. A 35-day timer expires tomorrow so Keybot will likely flip back to using 2x ETF's when the model flips short.

10/8/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/6/17; 9:00 AM EST =
10/3/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +86 but algorithm remains long
10/2/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +85
10/2/17; 3:49 PM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
10/2/17; 10:20 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
10/2/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83
10/2/17; 9:48 AM EST = +100; signal line is +82
10/1/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +84; signal line is +82
9/29/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
9/29/17; 9:33 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82; go long 2511; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)
9/28/17; 10:28 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short
9/28/17; 9:53 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/28/17; 9:46 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains short
9/26/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/25/17; 12:42 PM EST = +68; signal line is +82
9/25/17; 12:06 PM EST = +54; signal line is +81
9/25/17; 10:54 AM EST = +68; signal line is +82; go short 2494; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +11.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.9%)