Sunday, December 31, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 2678 on Friday the very last day of trading for the year, with only minutes remaining, reminiscent of the flip two years ago in the final minute of the year. You saw the VIX fail in the last minute but 3 minutes before that the chips flushed lower. The SOX dropped to the critical 1255.55 level, identified by Keybot, and then price gapped lower which sucked the broad stock indexes lower and spiked volatility. For the first week of the new year, utilities, volatility and chips are controlling stock market direction.

The VIX kept bumping it head up against the 10.43 level on Friday but did not poke up through until the very end of the session. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can call out these important levels and parameters before they occur?

Market bears will need lower utilities to drive stocks lower. Bulls will need higher utes and chips and lower volatility to send stocks higher. The parameters and levels can be identified once the algorithm is zeroed tomorrow for the new year.

The Keybot algorithm program gains a half-percent on the last trade. Ditto the actual trading. Keybot exits SSO and enters TWM. The year will close out with a disappointing finish for the Keybot the Quant algo only gaining about a percent in actual trading over the entire year under performing the SPX benchmark up over +19%.

The positive spin is that the algorithm keeps you out of trouble weaving the calmest path possible throughout any year in any trading environment. Keybot has never finished a year negative albeit this year was a close call. The price action in 2017 is the worst possible for algorithms with many investment houses pulling the plugs halfway through the year.

Even though the S&P 500 trended higher the whole year, the price action was very choppy and sawtooth. This whipsaw behavior along with low volatility kills the algorithms. The final 2017 numbers and all trades for 2017 will be posted tomorrow once the algo is zeroed for the year.

12/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2017 = +54; signal line is +78
12/29/17; 3:59 PM EST = +54; signal line is +79
12/29/17; 3:56 PM EST = +68; signal line is +80; go short 2678; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.1%)
12/28/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +80
12/27/17; 3:54 PM EST = +70; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
12/27/17; 2:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
12/27/17; 10:07 AM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/27/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/26/17; 2:14 PM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/26/17; 11:30 AM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/26/17; 11:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/26/17; 10:22 AM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/26/17; 9:39 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/24/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +80
12/21/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78
12/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +77
12/18/17; 3:13 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77
12/18/17; 2:16 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76
12/18/17; 1:20 PM EST = +84; signal line is +75
12/18/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75
12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +74
12/15/17; 3:48 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73
12/15/17; 1:56 PM EST = +100; signal line is +73
12/15/17; 10:16 AM EST = +84; signal line is +72; go long 2668; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +19.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.5%)

Thursday, December 28, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the end of year drama and light holiday trading continues. The market bulls have pushed UTIL to 724 back above the critical 719.62 level which creates the buoyancy in stocks today.

Only one trading day remains in the year. Tomorrow, Friday, is EOM, EOQ4, EOH2 and EOY2017. The algo will be zeroed out on the weekend and then restarted for the 2018 data. Keybot is disappointing this year finishing flat but considering the environment it is not a bad showing. The low volatility, low volume, choppy sideways trading this year is the worst possible price action behavior for algorithms.

For Friday, the market bears need to push UTIL under 719.62 and/or VIX above 10.43. If either one of these two parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2683, Keybot will likely flip short, hence, the imminent tun notation remains in the title line. Markets remain unstable and erratic.

The bulls are in control with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. Watch the utilities very closely. For all of next week, the UTIL 726.63 level, as well as the 719.62 level, are key. UTIL price is at 723.89. At the closing bell at 4 PM EST tomorrow, the UTIL 726.63 number is important since it sets up next week.

If UTIL ends the Friday session above 726.63, the market bulls are planning a big joyous party to begin the year with the stock market catapulting higher. If UTIL ends tomorrow below 726.63, the bears are in the game to begin the year and they may growl. If UTIL ends below 719.62 tomorrow, the stock market may fall apart to begin the year. Utilities and volatility are the two key parameters most impacting stock market direction currently.

If you recall from the year before last 2015 going into 2016, on the very last day of trading, Keybot flipped to the short side with only 1 minute remaining before the closing bell. Maybe there will be excitement tomorrow.

12/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2017 =
12/28/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +80
12/27/17; 3:54 PM EST = +70; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
12/27/17; 2:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +80 but algorithm remains long
12/27/17; 10:07 AM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/27/17; 10:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/26/17; 2:14 PM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but the algo is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line. If the SPX drops below 2678, Keybot will likely flip short. The market bears would most benefit from a slow and steady move lower and not a gap-down move. S&P futures are +2 at this writing about 2 hours before the Wednesday opening bell.

UTIL fell through the 50-week MA at 719.60 (now at 717.03) which is a very serious and negative market signal in the very near-term as well as for the intermediate term. The bulls have to push UTIL above 719.60 pronto, otherwise, the stock market would be expected to roll over lower.

Bears can gain downside strength with higher volatility and lower semiconductors. Bears need VIX above 10.43 (now at 10.25) and/or SOX under 1256 (now at 1259). The stock market will accelerate lower if these two parameters fail.

Bulls will be joyous into the new year if they can push UTIL above 719.60 after the opening bell. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number one-half hour after the opening bell. The beat goes on.

12/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2017 =
12/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/26/17; 2:14 PM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/26/17; 11:30 AM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/26/17; 11:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/26/17; 10:22 AM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/26/17; 9:39 AM EST = +68; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/24/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +81
12/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +80
12/21/17; 10:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78
12/21/17; 9:36 AM EST = +68; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +77

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot remains long as the market drama continues. Utilities fall like a rock. The algo did not print any numbers Tuesday except for the pre-scheduled number. The bulls need to push UTIL above 746.94 to sends stocks higher.

The bears need to push VIX above 10.72 and/or JJC under 35.00 to create market weakness. If either of the two parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2681, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper to prove that stocks can move lower. Bulls need higher utilities.

12/24/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +77
12/18/17; 3:13 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77

Monday, December 18, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. Out of the gate on Monday morning the chips launched higher. The bears never had a chance. The algo prints a maximum +100 number. However, as the Monday session plays out, an interesting development occurs. The utilities fail into a weekly downtrend (as compared to 15 weeks ago). UTIL 746.94 is key as previously mentioned. Note how price fell to that exact level this morning and bounced, then came down to fall through as the day plays out. Isn't it amazing the algorithm can identify that level before it occurs?

So the bulls ram chips higher to create market joy but behind the curtain, the bears drag the utilities into the bear camp. This activity caused the stock market to roll over in the afternoon and finish off the highs. The table is set for Tuesday. As the utilities go, so goes the markets. The stock market will have trouble moving higher if the bears keep UTIL under 746.94.The market bulls simply need to push UTIL above 746.94 and the stock market will catapult higher. 

If the bears push JJC under 35.00 and/or VIX above 10.72, either one would do, and SPX under 2686, Keybot will likely flip short. The algo prints a pre-scheduled number Tuesday morning before the opening bell. Watch the utilities. If utilities begin trending lower on a weekly  business that is an extremely bad omen for the overall stock market in the weeks and months ahead.

12/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
12/18/17; 3:13 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77
12/18/17; 2:16 PM EST = +100; signal line is +76
12/18/17; 1:20 PM EST = +84; signal line is +75
12/18/17; 9:36 AM EST = +100; signal line is +75
12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +74

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side to begin the new week of trading but the unstable market action continues. The most important parameter controlling stock market direction currently is the semiconductors. The bull-bear line identified and currently tracked by Keybot is SOX 1251.38. Price is at 1250.89 to begin the week on the bear side. If SOX moves above 1251.38, it adds upside fuel to stocks. With S&P futures up +10 as this message is typed a couple hours before the opening bell, the chips will likely rally strongly slapping the bears in the face.

The market bears need to keep SOX under 1251.38 while at the same time trying to push JJC under 34.87, UTIL under 747 and/or VIX above 10.72. These four parameters dictate stock market direction currently. Despite the upside joy, if the bears can push either copper, utilities or volatility into their camp, any one would do, and push the SPX under 2659, Keybot will likely flip short. Looking at the futures, this is not on anyone's radar screen for today.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before tomorrow's opening bell and also on Friday morning. The beat goes on. As the chips go, so goes the markets.

12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST = +84; signal line is +74
12/15/17; 3:48 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73

Saturday, December 16, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 2668 on Friday morning. You saw the climb in copper in the pre-market and knew the fix was in for the upside. Copper jumped over +2% on Friday propelling the market bulls to victory. The bulls slap the bears in the face again. Slap, slap. After lunchtime, Keybot prints another historic +100 high which is the maximum reading for the computer model. This was done by boosting the semiconductors higher. These truly are historic market times.

The choppy, low volatility slop continues. At the same time, the market is very news-driven whip-sawing to and fro on central banker and tax bill talk. For Monday, it looks like the semiconductors run the show. As the chips go, so goes the markets. Watch SOX like a hawk come Monday morning at 9:30 AM EST.

The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly +20% this year a phenomenal run higher. On the last trade, the algo program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO. There are 9 days remaining in the trading year.

Do not be surprised to see a whipsaw move back to the short side in these erratic and unstable markets. Price levels of interest can be pulled from the algo tomorrow after the Sunday number prints. Utilities will play a role this coming week. The beat goes on.

12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/15/17; 3:48 PM EST = +84; signal line is +73
12/15/17; 1:56 PM EST = +100; signal line is +73
12/15/17; 10:16 AM EST = +84; signal line is +72; go long 2668; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +19.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.5%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.5%)
12/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 3:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
12/14/17; 3:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 2:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
12/14/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 2:07 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/14/17; 12:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 11:45 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/14/17; 9:41 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/8/17; 10:08 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/8/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short
12/8/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/8/17; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/7/17; 10:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/5/17; 2:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71; go short 2636; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.7%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.7%)

Friday, December 15, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the sleepy week explodes into action with the algo printing 8 numbers yesterday. The bull-bear battle continues. Note the battle with copper. Bears need JJC below 34.82 and price is under by one penny at 34.81. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can call these important number levels out before they occur? If you are not impressed you should be. Messages can be posted more often if the blog is supported so it is all up to the international viewership.

The bears are pressuring the stock market lower with copper and semiconductors so watch these sectors closely. The bulls are preventing a sharp drop in the stock market and supporting equities by keeping volatility low and commodities elevated.

Bears need to keep JJC below 34.82 while pushing the VIX above 10.75. This will send stocks sharply lower. Bulls need to keep the VIX below 10.75 while pushing JJC above 34.82. One or these two will flinch and tell you the stock market direction ahead.

Since copper is on the bull-bear line at JJC 34.81-34.82, as copper goes, so goes the markets. Copper is trading higher in the early going which will pop JJC above 34.82 at the opening bell for the US regular trading session. VIX is currently printing at 10.13.

If JJC moves above 34.82, and remains above, and the SPX moves above 2668, Keybot will likely flip long. S&P futures are up +6 points as this message is typed 2 hours before the opening bell buoyed by copper. The beat goes on.

12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/14/17; 3:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
12/14/17; 3:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 2:34 PM EST = +68; signal line is +71
12/14/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 2:07 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/14/17; 12:36 PM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/14/17; 11:45 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/14/17; 9:41 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the bear side as this trading week motors along without Keybot printing any numbers as yet. Stocks keep floating higher. SOX remains in the bear camp and VIX in the bull camp. Neither parameter has flinched to reveal the path ahead for the stock market.

The battle for Wednesday has expanded. Keybot is tracking four key parameters most impacting stock market direction ahead; chips, copper, volatility and utilities. The bulls need either SOX above 1252.80 and/or JJC above 34.80. If either parameter turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 2670, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bears need either VIX above 10.76 and/or UTIL below 740.95. Utilities fell during the Tuesday session with UTIL at 748.31. This is extremely important. Next week the key UTIL level will be 746.94, call it 747. As of Friday at 4 PM EST and all next week, if UTIL falls under 747, stocks will begin dropping in earnest. Bulls must send utes higher immediately or they will be in trouble moving into next week. In addition, keep an eye on commodities since GTX under 2377 will create stock market downside.

To boil this down into something simpler, Keybot will likely flip long if SOX moves above 1252-1253 and the SPX moves above 2670. The algorithm will remain short and begin sending stocks lower if the VIX pops above 10.76. VIX futures begin trading at 3 AM EST. Copper futures will also be trading overnight to provide a heads up on how JJC will move on hump day.

Wednesday is a huge day for markets with the FOMC rate decision, forecasts and Chair Yellen's final press conference. One of the parameters above will flinch tomorrow. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week so the market action dictates the way this drama plays out.

12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70

Sunday, December 10, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side from last week from SPX 2636 with the sideways choppy market slop continuing. The stock market remains a coin-flip as evidenced with the algo number only 2 points below the signal line favoring bears by a hair.

The two key parameters controlling stock market direction currently are semiconductors and volatility. Bears will send the stock market lower if VIX moves above 10.76 (now at 9.58). Bulls will take control and send stocks to more record highs if the SOX moves above 1253.80 (now at 1238). One of these two parameters will flinch and tell you the stock market direction ahead.

If the SOX moves above 1253-1254, and the SPX moves above 2652, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

On the last trade, the algorithm computer program gains a couple percent and the actual trading nearly +3%. The Keybot program and the actual trading are each up about +3% this year with 3 weeks remaining in 2017. The benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +18% this year. The global central bankers are money Gods. Keybot exits IWM and enters SDS. The algo is back into the 2x ETF mode again.The low volatility continues wreaking havoc on algorithms this year.

Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bears are in control but stronger chips will help the bulls regain control. Higher volatility will send stocks lower.

12/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2017 =
12/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/24/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
12/19/17; 9:00 AM EST =
12/17/17; 7:00 PM EST =
12/10/17; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/8/17; 10:08 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/8/17; 10:00 AM EST = +84; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains short
12/8/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains short
12/8/17; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/7/17; 10:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +70
12/5/17; 2:23 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71; go short 2636; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.7%)(Actual results this trade = +2.5%; Actual results for 2017 = +2.7%)
12/5/17; 12:03 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
12/5/17; 11:16 AM EST = +68; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 2:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 12:03 PM EST = +68; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 9:57 AM EST = +54; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 9:51 AM EST = +70; signal line is +75 but algorithm remains long
12/4/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +76
12/3/17; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 3:43 PM EST = +86; signal line is +78
12/1/17; 3:42 PM EST = +70; signal line is +78 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 11:58 AM EST = +54; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 11:14 AM EST = +70; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 10:45 AM EST = +86; signal line is +81
12/1/17; 10:22 AM EST = +70; signal line is +81 but algorithm remains long
12/1/17; 9:50 AM EST = +54; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 10:15 AM EST = +70; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 10:02 AM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/30/17; 9:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/30/17; 3:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 3:29 PM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 2:44 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 1:42 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 1:24 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 12:21 PM EST = +70; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 12:09 PM EST = +54; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 11:54 AM EST = +70; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:32 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1:50 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1: 42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 10:56 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/16/17; 2:05 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85; go long 2589; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.2%)

Saturday, December 2, 2017

November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-11 is Available from Amazon; Record Highs in World Stock Markets Continue; Dow 24K+; SPX 2600+; Bitcoin 11K+; Tax-Cut Bill; Brexit; Jerome Powell Next Federal Reserve Chairman; Amazon CEO Bezos $100 Billion Man; Tech Stocks Selloff; Flattening Yield Curve; High-Yield Bond Outflows; VIX Flash Crashes to Historic 8.56 Low; Former Trump Adviser Flynn Cooperates with FBI

The November Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-11 is available through Amazon. The historic market action continues with more all-time and multi-year record stock market highs printing in the major indexes and individual stocks around the world. The world is awash in central banker liquidity so all asset classes continue floating ever higher, perhaps forever.

November Cover Highlights;
RECORD HIGHS IN WORLD STOCK MARKETS CONTINUE
DOW 24K+
SPX 2600+
BITCOIN 11K+
TAX-CUT BILL
BREXIT
JEROME POWELL NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN
AMAZON CEO BEZOS $100 BILLION MAN
TECH STOCKS SELLOFF
FLATTENNG YIELD CURVE
HIGH-YIELD BOND OUTFLOWS
VIX FLASH CRASHES TO HISTORIC 8.56 LOW
FORMER TRUMP ADVISER FLYNN COOPERATES WITH FBI

The November chronology highlights the non-stop all-time record breaking stock market highs in all seven major US indexes (SPX, INDU or DJI, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, NYA, TRAN or DJT). The Dow overtakes 24,000 and the S&P 500 is above 2600. Bitcoin prints above 11.1K before dropping back.

President Trump continues boasting about the new record highs in stocks taking full credit and responsibility for the joy. Oil is on the move higher with both West Texas and Brent printing at two-year highs.

Jerome “Jay” Powell will be the new Fed chairman and he breezed through a confirmation hearing in November. Former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn cops a plea and decides to cooperate with the FBI investigators. Flynn promptly throws Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, under the bus. Thump, thump.

The chronology explains the price moves in global stock, bond and currency markets after key geopolitical events, central bank monetary policy meetings and economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events and economic news take place in real-time.

You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past events including the May 2015 stock market top (2015-02 through 2015-10), Brexit (2016-06 and 2016-07), the US election (2016-10 and 2016-11), the drama behind the French election (2017-04 and 2017-05), economic data releases, monthly jobs reports, Fed meetings and much more. The wild overnight crash in the S&P futures, and quick recovery, after President Trump’s election last November is chronicled in real-time, as it happened minute-by-minute, in the 2016-11 publication.

In the 2017-11 publication, relive the 400-point intraday drop on Friday, 12/1/17, when it was thought that former Trump adviser Michael Flynn had implicated the president in nefarious deeds. This news story turned out to be not true although Kushner is in trouble.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publications contain updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, corrections, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

The December 2017-12 chronology is tentatively set for publishing by Amazon on Saturday, 1/6/18.

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Thursday, November 30, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears keep chomping away trying to create weakness. The algo has been idling in recent days as the stock market continues printing record highs but yesterday goes crazy printing off 11 numbers. The algo wanted to go short but all the internal parameters would not latch to allow the move so Keybot remains on the long side.

Chips, copper and volatility are most impacting stock market direction currently. Market bears need the VIX above 10.66, SOX below 1257 and JJC to remain below 35.07. The market bulls need the VIX to remain below 10.66 (trading at 10.40 as this message is typed), the SOX to remain above 1257 and JJC needs to move above 35.07. As the Thursday session begins, volatility is bullish, semiconductors are bullish and copper is bearish.

If either VIX moves above 10.66 and/or SOX below 1257 (now at 1265), either one would do, and the SPX drops below 2620, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Today is EOM and it appears the bull's will log another up month for the stock market. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this evening.

Bulls are cheering for higher copper which will catapult stocks higher. Bears are hoping for weaker chips and higher volatility, otherwise, they got nothing.

12/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/30/17; 3:06 AM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 3:59 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 3:29 PM EST = +84; signal line is +82
11/29/17; 2:44 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 2:16 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 1:42 PM EST = +70; signal line is +82 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 1:24 PM EST = +84; signal line is +83
11/29/17; 12:21 PM EST = +70; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 12:09 PM EST = +54; signal line is +83 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 11:54 AM EST = +70; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/29/17; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains long
11/28/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86

Sunday, November 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The S&P 500 prints above 2600 last Thursday and on Friday closes above 2600 for the first time in history. The bulls, and central bankers, are unstoppable. The algo identifies volatility and banks as the two key parameters most impacting stock market direction currently. The market bears need either VIX above 10.63 and/or XLF below 26.02. If both parameters remain bullish, stocks will continue floating higher.

If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops under 2600, Keybot will likely flip short. Bears need higher volatility and lower banks otherwise the beatings will continue. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week. The month ends on Thursday. November started at SPX 2575.26 so bears would need a 27-point pull back within the next four days to turn the month negative. The bulls remain in firm control of the stock market. The algorithm remains pegged at the epic maximum +100 level.

12/3/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/30/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/28/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +86
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84

Friday, November 24, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in their glory as the algorithm continues printing the epic +100 highs. Keep watching the VIX 10.65 level for the first sign of cracks in the stock market. If the VIX moves higher and oscillates above and below the 10.65 level this likely hints that stocks will begin selling off. For now, the bulls are on easy street. Keybot remains pegged into the maximum +100 ceiling with all algorithm parameters joyously bullish. The stock market closes at 1 PM EST today.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The key parameter controlling market direction currently is volatility. Stocks will continue higher if the VIX maintains a 9-handle. Market bears need VIX above 10.65 to create stock market selling. Bulls rule the stock market with the VIX below 10.65.

If the VIX turns bearish at 10.65, and the SPX drops below 2589, Keybot will likely flip short. The epic market action continues this year with the algo at the maximum +100 level. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM EST. US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and will close early on Friday. The beat goes on.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:32 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with the bulls jamming volatility lower to send stocks higher. VIX fell through 11.14 so you knew that the bulls had the upper hand and then a fight occurred at the important VIX 10.67 level identified by Keybot and price failed below sending stocks higher. Isn't is fascinating the algorithm identifies key price points before they occur? VIX closed the session at 10.65 on the bull side of the key 10.67 bull-bear line in the sand. At the same time copper was falling but never fell enough to help the bears. Thus, the bulls slap the bears in the face with the drop in volatility. Slap, slap.

Same routine ahead. Bulls are on easy street and will send the stock market higher with the algo number pegged to the maximum and historic +100. Market bears need either VIX above 10.67 and/or JJC below 34.83. Volatility and copper remain the two parameters most impacting broad stock market direction currently.

If either VIX or JJC turns bearish, either one would do, and the SPX falls below 2578, Keybot will likely flip short. The market bulls have their sights set on SPX 2600 while the bears are praying for higher volatility and lower copper prices. VIX is at 10.27 in early pre-regular session trading and copper futures are trading positively. Bulls slap the bears in the face again. Slap, slap.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/17; 3:59 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 3:32 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1:50 PM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 1: 42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/20/17; 10:56 AM EST = +100; signal line is +84
11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84

Sunday, November 19, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as markets chop along sideways. The stock market is a coin-flip as evidenced by the algo number only 2 points above the signal line. The three key parameters controlling broad stock market direction currently are volatility, banks and copper as the previous comments highlight. The VIX came down to the 200-day MA at 11.15 and bounced. When that occurred you knew the bulls did not have the juice to take the stock market higher.

Bears need XLF under 26.00 and/or JJC under 34.79 for the stock market to begins selling off in force. XLF price came down to 26.00-26.03 on Friday and JJC down to 34.79-34.83, testing both levels that Keybot called out ahead of time but prices bounced off both of the key bull-bear lines in the sand so you knew that the market bears did not have the juice to take the stock market lower. Hence, sideways choppy slop. The S&P 500 has basically chopped sideways through the tight 2560-2590 range for the last six weeks.

Bulls need VIX under 11.15 to prove they can take stocks higher and if VIX falls below 10.67, stocks will catapult higher with the SPX leaping above 2600.

Bears need XLF under 26.00 and/or JJC under 34.79 to create stock market selling. If either parameter turns bearish, only one is necessary, and the SPX falls below 2578, Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

One of these three parameters volatility, banks or copper will flinch and that will immediately tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning. The stock market is closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Friday is a shortened session closing at 1 PM EST. Watch copper futures trading into Monday morning as well as listening for any news concerning the banks to provide hints on the path ahead for the US stock market.

11/26/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84

Friday, November 17, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side after more choppy action over the last few days. The algorithm is getting tossed around to and fro like a rag doll. The stock market direction is a toss-up as evidenced by the algo number and signal line at the same basic level.

The algo flipped short on Tuesday then whack; Keybot was smacked back to the bull side yesterday. The price action is sideways choppy slop with bull and bear traps. The Keybot algorithm program and actual trading take marginal losses on the last 2 trades. Keybot cycled from PSQ to DIA for the long side then to SH for the short side now in IWM for the long side. Both the algorithm program and actual trading is flat on the year. The benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +15.6% this year with 6 weeks remaining.

Volatility, copper and banks are dictating stock market direction currently. The VIX bull-bear line in the sand is at 10.67 and price is at 11.62 firmly above creating the negativity in stocks. You can watch the VIX 200-day MA at 11.14 which is a critical bull-bear signal line. Stocks will roll over and selloff as long as the VIX remains above 11.14. Bulls will fight back if the VIX drops under 11.14 and if price loses the 10.67 level, the SPX will launch above 2600.

Watch JJC 34.79 with price only 3 cents on the bull side at 34.82 creating lift in the stock market. Bears will rejoice if JJC drops below 34.79. Copper futures are trading flat.

Watch XLF 26.00 with price at 26.19 on the bull side creating lift in the stock market. Bears will rejoice if XLF drops below 26.00.

Thus, market bulls need to keep copper and banks buoyant while sending the VIX below 11.14 and 10.67. Market bears need to keep volatility elevated while sending either JJC below 34.79 and/or XLF below 26.00. If either JJC or XLF loses the level mentioned, either one would do, and the SPX drops under 2573, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The beat goes on.

11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/16/17; 2:05 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85; go long 2589; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.2%)
11/16/17; 1:14 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short
11/16/17; 11:34 AM EST = +70; signal line is +86
11/15/17; 10:56 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
11/15/17; 10:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +87
11/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +88
11/14/17; 1:46 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:04 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91; go short 2568; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.0%)
11/13/17; 9:54 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 8:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
11/9/17; 1:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 12:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 11:28 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:58 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/9/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +95 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:03 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
11/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +94
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:36 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/27/17; 11:09 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94; go long 2576; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.6%)

Monday, November 13, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market antics continue. The algo printed 8 numbers last Thursday and is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 5 points below the signal line, however, the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX drops below 2574 tomorrow (Tuesday), Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. Market bears would benefit from a slow steady move lower with the stock market and not a gap down since this may delay the algorithm from flipping short.

Keybot is tracking two parameters that are most greatly impacting broad stock market direction; volatility and the banks. VIX is at 11.50 above the 10.66 bull-bear line identified by Keybot so the bears are happy. XLF is at 26.12 above the 26.00 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls are happy. One of these 2 parameters will flinch and that will dictate stock market direction. Bears will cheer if XLF drops under 26.00. Bulls will throw confetti if VIX drops under 10.66. As the banks go, so go the markets. Copper is also key. Watch JJC 34.88. Price is at 35.65 on the bull side so Doctor Copper creates lift in the stock market.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The sideways choppy slop continues. The S&P 500 has basically moved through the 2565-2595 range for the last month. The beat goes on.

11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/17; 9:54 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 8:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
11/9/17; 1:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 12:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 11:28 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:58 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/9/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +95 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:03 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
11/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot remains on the long side with the algo pegged at the maximum +100 level. The last move from short to long was about a week and one-half ago. Volatility remains the key parameter impacting market direction. VIX 10.62 is the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls are on easy street below while above will usher in serious market selling.

The +100 prints are epic and historic. The initial +100 prints occurred about 11 months ago. It is amazing that almost a year later the algo keeps drifting back up to +100 without any serious pull back in the stock market occurring. You would think a rolling stock market top would take place over a 3 to 6 month period, maybe more, however, the US stock market is joyous for one year straight. It is truly historic and something that many of us may never see again in our lifetimes once the party ends. The +95 number on the signal line is al;so at a record high. It is astounding.

On the last trade, the algo program loses -0.4% and the actual trading -1.4%. Unfortunately, the PSQ ETF was short tech stocks which rallied big. Keybot exited PSQ and entered DIA. The S&P 500 is up a bigtime +15.1% this year. The power of the central bankers is amazing.

Lower copper and retail stocks will help the market bears but the key is volatility currently. Bears need VIX above 10.62 or they got nothing. An imminent turn to the downside will be in play if VIX moves above 10.62. World stock indexes continue printing record highs. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +94
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:36 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/27/17; 11:09 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94; go long 2576; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.6%)
10/27/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains short
10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94
10/25/17; 9:49 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94; go short 2565; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.0%)