Friday, November 17, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side after more choppy action over the last few days. The algorithm is getting tossed around to and fro like a rag doll. The stock market direction is a toss-up as evidenced by the algo number and signal line at the same basic level.

The algo flipped short on Tuesday then whack; Keybot was smacked back to the bull side yesterday. The price action is sideways choppy slop with bull and bear traps. The Keybot algorithm program and actual trading take marginal losses on the last 2 trades. Keybot cycled from PSQ to DIA for the long side then to SH for the short side now in IWM for the long side. Both the algorithm program and actual trading is flat on the year. The benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +15.6% this year with 6 weeks remaining.

Volatility, copper and banks are dictating stock market direction currently. The VIX bull-bear line in the sand is at 10.67 and price is at 11.62 firmly above creating the negativity in stocks. You can watch the VIX 200-day MA at 11.14 which is a critical bull-bear signal line. Stocks will roll over and selloff as long as the VIX remains above 11.14. Bulls will fight back if the VIX drops under 11.14 and if price loses the 10.67 level, the SPX will launch above 2600.

Watch JJC 34.79 with price only 3 cents on the bull side at 34.82 creating lift in the stock market. Bears will rejoice if JJC drops below 34.79. Copper futures are trading flat.

Watch XLF 26.00 with price at 26.19 on the bull side creating lift in the stock market. Bears will rejoice if XLF drops below 26.00.

Thus, market bulls need to keep copper and banks buoyant while sending the VIX below 11.14 and 10.67. Market bears need to keep volatility elevated while sending either JJC below 34.79 and/or XLF below 26.00. If either JJC or XLF loses the level mentioned, either one would do, and the SPX drops under 2573, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The beat goes on.

11/19/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/17; 9:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +84
11/16/17; 2:05 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85; go long 2589; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +0.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.8%; Actual results for 2017 = +0.2%)
11/16/17; 1:14 PM EST = +86; signal line is +85 but algorithm remains short
11/16/17; 11:34 AM EST = +70; signal line is +86
11/15/17; 10:56 AM EST = +86; signal line is +87
11/15/17; 10:06 AM EST = +70; signal line is +87
11/15/17; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +88
11/14/17; 1:46 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:08 AM EST = +70; signal line is +90
11/14/17; 10:04 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91; go short 2568; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.6%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.0%)
11/13/17; 9:54 AM EST = +86; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/13/17; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +91 but algorithm remains long
11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
11/10/17; 8:58 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 3:55 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
11/9/17; 1:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 12:19 PM EST = +70; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 11:28 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:58 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/9/17; 10:43 AM EST = +86; signal line is +95 but algorithm remains long
11/9/17; 10:03 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
11/9/17; 9:36 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +94
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:36 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/27/17; 11:09 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94; go long 2576; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.6%)

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