STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long on Friday at SPX 5109 as the bulls stage a comeback rally. A New York Comeback with Lucinda and the Boss. The banks recovered days ago and last week the utes and the chips join the bull camp creating more upside joy. Utilities get cold feet into the closing bell on Friday but should again become joyous after Monday's open.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. This difference is nothing to write home about so remain vigilant for a potential whipsaw back to the short side. The bulls fought like Hell for several days to get over the finish line and flip the quant long as evidenced by the readout.

Utilities, chips, retail stocks (think Scamazon) and volatility are controlling US stock market direction currently. Chips are in the bull camp while utes, retail and volatility are in the bear camp creating market sogginess.

Bears need SOX below 4655 to regain control of the stock market. If this level is tested, and then price recovers for a little while, then price fails down through 4655, that likely tells you that the robot wants to flip short again. Bulls are in great shape with no worries if SOX remains above 4655.

Utilities were a bad omen on the stock market and that obviously came true, however, the real nasty and deep pullback in stocks did not have follow-through because utes recovered. UTIL 872.35 is a bull/bear line in the sand for the week ahead with price currently at 884.25 on the bull side. This is not reflected in the algo number as yet but will be after Monday's opening bell as long as UTIL (or DJU) remains above 872.35. A drop below 872.35 tells you that the bears have come to play and want the ball back. A drop below 852.54 any day in the week ahead tells you that the stock market is in serious trouble. Bulls have no worries as long as UTIL remains above 872 so watch it closely.

Bulls need RTH above 202.04 and VIX below 14.00 to provide super upside strength to the stock market rally. If you do not see these two parameters turning bullish, it tells you that the rally is weak and will likely reverse.

Thus, bears need SOX below 4655 and UTIL below 872.35 to begin growling again. Bulls need SOX to remain above 4655 and UTIL to remain above 872.35 while at the same time pulling RTH higher above 202.04 and VIX lower below 14. This is all you need to know for stock market direction in the days ahead. Easy as punch, er sweet as the punch as The Association sings Along Comes Mary.

On the last trade that ran for nearly a month, the quant program and actual trading generated by the robot each gain about +3%. For the year, the SPX benchmark pulls back about -3% over the last month now up +7% so far in 2024. The quant program is up a percent this year and the actual trading is up a couple percent. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer does not expire for a couple more days when 2x leveraged ETF's will be available again. Carry On my Wayward Son.

5/5/24; 7:00 PM EST =
5/3/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
4/28/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
4/26/24; 3:59 PM EST = +16 signal line is -2
4/26/24; 11:03 AM EST = +32; signal line is -2; go long 5109; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +7.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +1.5%)
4/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
4/26/24; 9:55 AM EST = +32; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 3:42 PM EST = +16; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 3:24 PM EST = +32; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 10:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
4/25/24; 10:06 AM EST = +0; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
4/24/24; 11:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
4/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains short
4/23/24; 9:46 AM EST = +16; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
4/21/24; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
4/19/24; 3:56 PM EST = +0; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
4/19/24; 2:44 PM EST = -16; signal line is -3
4/19/24; 1:09 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
4/19/24; 12:51 PM EST = -16; signal line is -1
4/19/24; 12:17 PM EST = -32; signal line is +1
4/19/24; 12:08 PM EST = -16; signal line is +2
4/17/24; 9:51 AM EST = -32; signal line is +4
4/16/24; 2:40 PM EST = -16; signal line is +6
4/16/24; 2:33 PM EST = -32; signal line is +7
4/16/24; 11:26 AM EST = -16; signal line is +9
4/16/24; 9:00 AM EST = -32; signal line is +11
4/15/24; 1:34 PM EST = -32; signal line is +13
4/15/24; 12:34 PM EST = -16; signal line is +15
4/15/24; 11:38 AM EST = +0; signal line is +17
4/15/24; 11:05 AM EST = -16; signal line is +18
4/15/24; 10:32 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
4/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22
4/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is +23
4/12/24; 10:25 AM EST = -16; signal line is +25
4/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +26
4/12/24; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +27
4/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/9/24; 3:59 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/8/24; 2:06 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/8/24; 1:57 PM EST = +32; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +30
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
4/4/24; 1:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 1:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 12:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 9:49 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 12:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/3/24; 11:20 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 10:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/2/24; 1:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/2/24; 12:43 PM EST = +48; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:17 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:01 PM EST = +48; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 9:45 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:22 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:12 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
4/1/24; 1:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 10:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28; go short 5254; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 45 points below the signal line. The bears are eating the bull's lunch. Stocks fell apart on Friday and continue the slide on Monday. Banks and retail stocks failed creating the stock market selloff and then the chips failed yesterday afternoon sending everything down the rabbit hole. Let It Drop.

For the bulls to wrestle back control, the hooved ones will need banks, retail stocks and semiconductors to turn bullish. Bulls need XLF above 40.28, RTH above 202.80 and SOX above 4707. If any 1 of the 3 turn bullish (the most likely would be the socks), that will stall the selling and stocks will begin to stabilize but bulls have no hope until all 3 turn bullish again.

For the bears, weaker copper and commodities are needed but these have been running into the stratosphere. Simply watch the 3 parameters listed above and that will tell you the stock market strength in either direction. Easy-peasy.

The weak utilities place the broad stock market in a crash profile for the next couple weeks. That would be fun. You may say you Can't Believe We're Here but we are. Great guitar solo.

4/21/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/24; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/24; 1:34 PM EST = -32; signal line is +13
4/15/24; 12:34 PM EST = -16; signal line is +15
4/15/24; 11:38 AM EST = +0; signal line is +17
4/15/24; 11:05 AM EST = -16; signal line is +18
4/15/24; 10:32 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
4/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22
4/14/24; 7:00 PM EST = -16; signal line is +23
4/12/24; 10:25 AM EST = -16; signal line is +25
4/12/24; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +26
4/12/24; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +27
4/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/9/24; 3:59 PM EST = +48; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/8/24; 2:06 PM EST = +16; signal line is +27
4/8/24; 1:57 PM EST = +32; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST = +16; signal line is +30
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market choppiness and whipsaw slop continues. Did you take note of the drama with utes? The bears remain in charge with the algo number 15 points below the signal line.

The robot is tracking utes, volatility, chips and retail as the main drivers of stock market direction currently. Utilities and volatility are in the bear camp while the socks and retail reside in the bull camp. Each are pulling the broad stock market in their preferred direction.

The bulls come up short last week with the utilities with UTIL sitting at 870. Bulls need UTIL above 877.90-881.67 next week and will be rewarded with the stock market rallying if it happens. Pay attention to the utes out of the gate on Monday. The bulls also need VIX below the 13.31 palindrome, now above 16, if they want to rally stocks. Plain and simple, the bulls are toast going forward unless they push VIX back below 13.31.

If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bullish (UTIL 877.90, UTIL 881.677, VIX 13.31; obviously, UTIL would tag 877.90 first if it happened), and the SPX runs above 5222, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

On the bear side, the furry ones are happy with UTIL below 877.90 and VIX above 13.31 and will try to keep it this way with all their might. Bears will create stock market carnage if SOX loses 4690, now at 4756, and/or if RTH loses 203.20, now at 205.77. Thus, watch for any weakness in semiconductors and/or retail stocks on Monday which will indicate that the blood is starting to flow on Wall Street. RTH is, in essence, Amazon, so pay very close attention to Scamazon going forward. Evanescence.

Thus, bulls need UTIL 877.90 and VIX 13.31. Bears need SOX 4690 and RTH 203.20. Choose your poison but, as Billy sings, there may be Poison in the Well. These 4 parameters tell you the US stock market direction for the coming days.

Also, if utilities remain bearish, it is an ominous sign. It means that any expected -3% to -5% pullback, or even -10% correction, in US stocks going forward will not occur. Instead, there will be far bigger losses of -10% to -20% for the stock market and perhaps more. Watch the Utes.

4/14/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/12/24; 10:00 AM EST =
4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
4/4/24; 1:58 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 1:11 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 12:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 11:19 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/4/24; 10:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/4/24; 9:49 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 12:44 PM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 12:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/3/24; 11:20 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/3/24; 10:18 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
4/3/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32
4/2/24; 1:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +33
4/2/24; 12:43 PM EST = +48; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:17 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 12:01 PM EST = +48; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 11:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
4/2/24; 9:45 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:22 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 5254 this Manic Monday morning. As previously mentioned, utes and vol are all that matter. Pope Powell's jackboot slipped off Uncle Vix's neck so volatility jumps higher sinking stocks.

At the same time, utilities collapse shortly after trading begins. Utes make a comeback and regain one leg so they are trying to limp the bulls back into the lead. The algo number is 4 points above the signal line so Keybot the Quant is champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. This year's chop suey is a lot like last year's.

VIX 13.21, UTIL 873.15 and UTIL 878.50 are controlling stock market direction currently. VIX is at 13.65 creating selling pressure. UTIL is at 875 creating negativity (below 878.50) but also creating positivity for stocks (above 873.15).

Thus, bulls win and the quant will likely whipsaw back to the long side if the SPX runs above 5264 trending higher. This is about 20 points above today's closing price at 5244 so watch tomorrow morning to see if the S&P futures are up +20 to signal bullish fun ahead, or not. Bulls will gather big strength if VIX drops below 13.21 and/or if UTIL moves above 879 heading higher.

The quant remains in the bear camp waiting to see what the bulls got in the morning or maybe during Tuesday Afternoon. Bears simply need UTIL back below 873 to usher in negativity and confirm that down is the path ahead for US stocks. If so, watch chips, copper and commodities which would create further negativity and deterioration in the stock market.

On the last trade that ran for only about 7-1/2 hours, the quant program and actual trading are flat. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up an euphoric +10% with the quant program and actual trading each down a couple percent. Keybot exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the 1x ETF's due to the triggering of the whipsaw timer. The robot will remain in the 1x ETF's for 30 days to reduce risk due to the choppy whipsaw slop.

Easy-peasy. Bulls need SPX 5264 and UTIL 879 trending higher and VIX below 13.21 and dropping. Bears need UTIL 873 and trending lower. You never thought utilities could be so interesting, did you? Utes typically move lower on higher yields and visa versa.

4/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
4/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/24; 2:22 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 2:12 PM EST = +16; signal line is +28
4/1/24; 1:16 PM EST = +32; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
4/1/24; 10:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28; go short 5254; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.2%; Actual results for 2024 = -1.9%)
4/1/24; 10:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
4/1/24; 9:39 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
4/1/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +29
3/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +62; signal line is +28
3/28/24; 3:31 PM EST = +62; signal line is +28
3/28/24; 3:01 PM EST = +46; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27
3/28/24; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +27; go long 5249; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +10.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2024 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -0.9%; Actual results for 2024 = -2.1%)