Thursday, October 31, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through all the Fed drama yesterday. The bulls need to push utilities and/or commodities higher, above UTIL 506.22 and/or GTX 4874, respectively, to restart the market upside. The key number for UTIL next week is 504.41 which will replace the 506.22 so watch UTIL's price action in relation to 504.41 as we approach the Friday closing bell. The bears need to push copper lower and volatility higher, below JJC 40.20 and VIX above 14.60, respectively, to accelerate the market selling. Copper is lower in early trading.

For the SPX, starting at 1763, the bulls need to push above 1775 to regain upside mojo, a formidable task but not impossible. If UTIL achieves 506.22 or GTX achieves 4874 (only 1 of the 2 would be required), and the SPX moves above 1775, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to push under 1757 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1758-1774 is sideways action. S&P futures are -6 at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this evening which marks the month end (EOM). The bears continue to drive the bus despite the market buoyancy over the last few days. The imminent turn status is removed, for now, but will return if either UTIL moves above 506.22 or GTX above 4874. Happy Halloween.

11/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/13; 1:17 PM EST = +46; signal line is +54
10/30/13; 10:35 AM EST = +62; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
10/30/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +56

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as another odd trading day is underway. Both the VIX and the SPX are higher again today which is very uncharacteristic for markets. UTIL moves above 506.22 helping bulls. If UTIL stays above 506.22 and the SPX moves above 1775.22, Keybot will likely flip long. Markets may stumble along until the 2 PM EST Fed announcement. Bulls need GTX above 4873 to send the SPX higher to 1800. Bears need to push UTIL under 506.22, JJC under 40.19 and/or VIX above 14.60 to stop the market upside. Any 1 of these 3 parameters will help the bears. Markets appear to be a coin-flip now with the Fed flipping the coin in a couple hours.

10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/13; 10:35 AM EST = +62; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
10/30/13; 10:24 AM EST = +46; signal line is +56
10/30/13; 10:10 AM EST = +62; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
10/29/13; 2:05 PM EST = +46; signal line is +56

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short despite the bull orgy the last few days. The SPX price is about 26 handles above where the algo went short. It is not uncharacteristic for Keybot to exhibit this behavior now and then. The algo has moved to as much as 30 handles or so in the opposite direction without flipping to that side, but this behavior is infrequent. Keybot is held back from going long due to utilities remaining in the bear camp. The bulls push copper higher, JJC above 40.19, providing today's upside juice. Tomorrow is a big day for markets with a fight between copper and utes. Market bulls win with UTIL 506.22 and bears win with JJC 40.19. Watch copper in overnight trading.

For the SPX, starting at new all-time highs once again at 1772, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the overnight S&P futures and it is off to the races higher once again with 1780 targeted. The bears need to push under 1763 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1764-1771 is sideways action. If UTIL moves above 506.22, and the SPX moves above 1772, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn status. Bears need weak copper to remain in the game and press the downside.

10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/13; 2:05 PM EST = +46; signal line is +56
10/29/13; 1:33 PM EST = +30; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite an equity market that continues to float higher. Utilities and copper continue to create drama today as the SPX punches out new all-time highs above 1770. JJC is above 40.19 creating bullishness. UTIL is under 506.22 creating bearishness. The drama continues. If UTIL moves above 506.22 and the SPX moves above 1770.88, Keybot will likely flip long, so the imminent turn notation is added above. Markets are very erratic and unstable.

10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/13; 2:05 PM EST = +46; signal line is +56
10/29/13; 1:33 PM EST = +30; signal line is +57
10/29/13; 10:43 AM EST = +46; signal line is +58
10/29/13; 10:26 AM EST = +62; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains short
10/29/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as copper joins the bull camp with JJC above 40.19.  UTIL remains under 506.22 helping bears but both copper and utes are dancing across their bull-bear lines in the sand. VIX is 13.50 remaining low helping bulls and oddly enough, the day begins with both the VIX and SPX up again; one of them is wrong. The pre-scheduled number results in a 2 tick move lower for the algo number. JJC 40.19 and UTIL 506.22 are telling the market story today. If UTIL moves above 506.22, and the SPX above 1768.68, and both stay above, Keybot will likely flip long.

10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/13; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +57
10/29/13; 9:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +57
10/28/13; 10:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Tuesday session. The bulls continue to float the SPX to new highs. The algo is tracking UTIL 506.22 (now at 504.86 causing market negativity) and JJC 40.19 (now at 40.05 causing market negativity). Thus, the bulls need one of both of these parameters to move into their camp and create equity market upside. The algo is also tracking VIX 14.60 (now at 13.31 causing market bullishness). The bears need to push VIX above 14.60 which clears the path for substantive market downside. So the bulls need higher utilities and copper while the bears need higher volatility. The SPX and VIX were both up yesterday so one of them is wrong. Copper is higher in early trading. 

For the SPX starting at 1762, the bulls need to touch the 1765 handle and it is upside party-time once again with price moving to the 1770's. The bears need to push under 1758 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1759-1764 is sideways action. The bears are in firm control of the markets, with the algo number 25 points below the signal line, despite the SPX printing new all-time highs yesterday. If both UTIL and JJC turn bullish as described above, and the SPX moves above 1765, and all three stay above their respective levels, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. Otherwise, the robot likely remains short.

10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/13; 10:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +57
10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +58

Monday, October 28, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is underway. UTIL fell under 506.22 which helps the bear case but utilities are fighting for this level just as JJC is fighting for 40.19. Both are causing bearishness currently and are capping the market upside. Bulls need either UTIL 506.22 and/or JJC 40.19 to push equities higher. The SPX moved a hair positive this morning so price popped to near 1763, another new all-time high, but not as strong as would be expected, and this is because UTIL and JJC are in the bear camp. UTIL 506.22 and JJC 40.19 dictate market direction. The beat goes on.

10/29/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/13; 10:31 AM EST = +32; signal line is +57
10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +58

Sunday, October 27, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend moving into the new week of trading. Bulls must keep UTIL above 506.22 to maintain buoyancy in the equity markets. If price drops under UTIL 506.22, the broad indexes will weaken. Copper is the key to begin the week. JJC is in the bear camp under 40.19 right now causing market bearishness. For the SPX to continue higher, the bulls need JJC above 40.19. Even if the broad indexes move higher to begin the session, if JJC does not move above 40.19, markets will retreat and leak lower. Bears must keep JJC under 40.19 and move UTIL under 506.22 to gain downside juice.

For the SPX starting at a new all-time high at 1760, the bulls only need a sliver of green in the overnight S&P futures and the upside party will continue at the opening bell moving price well up into the 1760's. The bears need to keep the futures negative overnight and push SPX under 1753 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1754-1759 is sideways action for Monday. Watch copper overnight. Up copper means the market bulls will be running but if copper is negative, the market bears may finally initiate more substantive downside. Markets remain erratic and unstable. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week; EOM is Thursday. The imminent turn status is not displayed currently but if JJC moves above 40.19, and the SPX moves above 1760, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.

11/3/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/31/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +58
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +58

Saturday, October 26, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. JJC stays under 40.19 during the Friday session so the bulls had trouble pushing markets higher, but equities were goosed in the final minutes with stronger utes. To prepare for Monday, the bulls needed UTIL above 506.22, and alas, in the final few minutes the utilities close 35 cents above at 506.57. Isn't it amazing to see Keybot identify these areas and levels of interest before they occur? Thus, despite the late-day push higher for equities, the algo remains short and did not print any numbers after the morning's pre-scheduled number. Copper and utilities are key for Monday and the areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The copper trading overnight Sunday will likely dictate market direction Monday morning. The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 1759.82 and new all-time closing high at 1759.77 and Keybot remains short. 

10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +58
10/23/13; 11:29 AM EST = +48; signal line is +59

Friday, October 25, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Friday session is underway. The pre-scheduled number results in a one-point change for the signal line. The parameters dictating market direction are unchanged. UTIL is above 498 causing bullishness (watch the UTIL 506.22 number at 4 PM), SOX is above 489 causing bullishness, VIX under 14.79 causing bullishness and JJC is 40.00 under the 40.19 causing bearishness. The SPX touched the 1754 handle so price pushed higher to test the all-time high at 1758-1759. Copper is key. Watch 40.19.  If JJC moves above 40.19, and the SPX moves above 1759, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip long. If JJC moves towards 40.19, consider that to signal that an imminent turn to the long side may be on tap.

10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +58
10/23/13; 11:29 AM EST = +48; signal line is +59

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short moving into the Friday session. Thursday was uneventful with UTIL remaining above 498, SOX above 488.95 and JJC under 40.19; status quo so equity markets staggered sideways. Late-day, the bulls pushed copper higher which created market lift into the closing bell. For Friday, the same 3 parameters dictate market direction. Of great interest today will be the closing print for UTIL since it must move above 506.22 by 4 PM EST, otherwise, equities will be set for a weaker opening come Monday morning. The UTIL 506.22 is a firm number that remains in effect for all of next week. Bulls must move above UTIL 506.22 to keep equities moving higher. If UTIL drops below 500 and heads lower, this is a troubling signal for markets moving forward. UTIL must stay above 503 for the next solid month, otherwise, a ceiling will be placed on the market upside.

For the SPX today starting at 1752, the bulls need to touch the 1754 handle and price will leap higher quickly to test the all-time high at 1759. The bears need to push below 1746 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1747-1753 is sideways action. Watch UTIL 506.22 and JJC 40.19 today. Copper is weak in early trading. Bulls need JJC 40.19 and then UTIL 506.22 to signal continuing upside party time. Bears can initiate the downside with UTIL under 506.22 and SOX dropping under 488.95. If JJC moves above 40.19 while UTIL stays above 498 and SOX above 488.95, and the SPX moves above 1754, and all remain above, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. Copper is key. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning. S&P futures are flat to a hair negative at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell.

10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/13; 11:29 AM EST = +48; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 10:20 AM EST = +32; signal line is +59

Thursday, October 24, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is bearish moving into the Thursday session. UTIL 498 (now at 502 causing market bullishness), SOX 488.95 (now at 490.11 causing bullishness) and JJC 40.19 (now at 39.99 causing bearishness) are dictating market direction. The bulls need to send copper higher (JJC above 40.19). The bears need to push utilities and semiconductors lower (UTIL under 498.03 and SOX under 488.95, respectively). The movement of these 3 parameters will send markets in the same respective direction.

For the SPX starting at 1746, the bulls need to move above 1752 to ignite an upside acceleration to test the all-time high at 1759. S&P futures are +7 at this writing about 6 hours before the U.S. open which teases at this outcome currently. The bears need to push under 1741 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1742-1751 is sideways action. If JJC pushes above 40.19, and the SPX moves above 1752, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side. Markets remain very unstable.

10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/13; 11:29 AM EST = +48; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 10:20 AM EST = +32; signal line is +59

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the session moves along. Semiconductors recover with SOX above 488.95 which prevents the markets from sliding lower. SPX is at 1746. Watch JJC 40.21 and SOX 488.95.

10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/13; 11:29 AM EST = +48; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 10:20 AM EST = +32; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 9:51 AM EST = +48; signal line is +60; go short 1746; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +22.4%)(Keybot this trade = +3.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +18.0%)(Actual this trade = +7.8%; Actual for 2013 = +15.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 1746. JJC is under 40.21 which creates market negativity. Ditto the collapse in semiconductors today with SOX under 488.95. Both of these parameters are on the ragged edge so stay on guard for a whipsaw move today or tomorrow. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS. The last trade gains about 4% for the algorithm program itself and about 8% for the actual trade. Bears need JJC to stay under 40.21 and SOX under 488.95, otherwise, the bulls will wrestle back control. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls still have their hands on the steering wheel trying to wrestle back control.

10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/13; 10:20 AM EST = +32; signal line is +59
10/23/13; 9:51 AM EST = +48; signal line is +60; go short 1746; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +22.4%)(Keybot this trade = +3.9%; Keybot for 2013 = +18.0%)(Actual this trade = +7.8%; Actual for 2013 = +15.1%)
10/23/13; 9:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
10/22/13; 10:45 AM EST = +64; signal line is +60
10/22/13; 9:50 AM EST = +78; signal line is +59
10/22/13; 9:48 AM EST = +62; signal line is +58
10/22/13; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
10/21/13; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
10/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +57
10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST = +78; signal line is +56
10/18/13; 12:40 PM EST = +78; signal line is +55
10/18/13; 9:57 AM EST = +64; signal line is +54
10/18/13; 9:30 AM EST = +78; signal line is +52
10/17/13; 10:06 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST = +78; signal line is +48
10/16/13; 3:48 PM EST = +78; signal line is +46
10/16/13; 3:13 PM EST = +64; signal line is +44
10/16/13; 2:46 PM EST = +48; signal line is +41
10/16/13; 9:48 AM EST = +64; signal line is +39
10/16/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +37
10/15/13; 2:32 PM EST = +34; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/15/13; 2:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +32
10/15/13; 2:01 PM EST = +64; signal line is +30
10/15/13; 1:56 PM EST = +50; signal line is +28
10/15/13; 1:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +26
10/15/13; 1:26 PM EST = +48; signal line is +23
10/15/13; 10:17 AM EST = +64; signal line is +21
10/15/13; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +18
10/14/13; 12:04 PM EST = +64; signal line is +16
10/14/13; 11:08 AM EST = +50; signal line is +13
10/14/13; 10:18 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
10/14/13; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +9
10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +7
10/11/13; 2:22 PM EST = +48; signal line is +6
10/11/13; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +5
10/11/13; 11:43 AM EST = +48; signal line is +5
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +4
10/11/13; 9:30 AM EST = +34; signal line is +3
10/10/13; 1:42 PM EST = +48; signal line is +3
10/10/13; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 11:33 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 11:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
10/10/13; 10:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2; go long 1681; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +17.9%)(Keybot this trade = +0.5%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.1%)(Actual this trade = +0.5%; Actual for 2013 = +7.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Wednesday session. The bulls were running yesterday again with the SPX printing new all-time highs. GTX drops under 4890 which helped the bears maintain a 1759.33 all-time high ceiling. UTIL is breaking out to the upside which will help the bulls moving forward. If UTIL stays above 500 over the next month this will help maintain elevated equity markets. If UTIL drops under 500, and under 498 for the remainder of this week, this will signal trouble ahead for the broad indexes. Watch JJC 40.19 and VIX 14.79, both causing market bullishness. Copper is weak in early trading. Elevated copper prices over the last couple weeks are instrumental in moving equities higher.

For the SPX starting at 1755, the bulls need to touch the 1760 handle and another multi-handle upside orgy will result. The bears need to push under 1747 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1748-1759 is sideways action. S&P futures are -11 at this writing about 5 hours before the opening bell which would test the lower bear goal for today. If UTIL 498, JJC 40.19 and/or VIX 14.79 turn bearish, any 1 of the 3, and the SPX drops under 1747, and stays under, Keybot will likely flip short. Remain cautious. Markets are erratic, unstable and not to be trusted.

10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/22/13; 10:45 AM EST = +64; signal line is +60
10/22/13; 9:50 AM EST = +78; signal line is +59

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Tuesday session is underway. GTX pops above 4890 (use this number instead of 4888) and UTIL above 498 so it is party time for bulls again. The SPX touches the 1748 handle so it accelerates to a HOD at 1756.56 so far today. The algo is overbot again at near 78-80% but bears got nothing unless they move GTX under 4890 or UTIL under 498. JJC is over 41 well above the 40.19 the bears need. The bulls are cruising again. The imminent turn notation is removed, for now, but will return if GTX or UTIL turns bearish. Markets are very unstable and erratic and not to be trusted.

10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/22/13; 9:50 AM EST = +78; signal line is +59
10/22/13; 9:48 AM EST = +62; signal line is +58
10/22/13; 9:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
10/21/13; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo wants to flip to the short side. Algorithm programming rules prevent the move yesterday since all the ducks are not lined up properly. If the SPX drops under 1741, and stays under, Keybot will likely flip short. S&P futures are flat at this writing about 5 hours before the U.S. opening bell. UTIL is under 498 and GTX is under 4888 creating a cap in the market upside as evidenced by the flat price action yesterday. Copper is key. Watch JJC 40.19, now at 40.48 causing broad market bullishness. If JJC fails at 40.19, it is highly likely that Keybot will be flipping short. The bulls need to keep JJC above 40.19 and move UTIL above 498 and/or GTX above 4888 and the upside equity party will continue.

For the SPX starting at new all-time highs at 1745, the bulls need to touch the 1748 to trigger an upside acceleration well into the 1750's. The bears need to push under 1741 to accelerate the downside likely targeting 1733 support. A move through 1742-1747 is sideways action for the Tuesday session. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell today. Markets remain unstable. Bears should take control sub 1741 so this 1740-1741 area may be a battleground for the Tuesday session.

10/22/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/21/13; 10:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
10/21/13; 9:30 AM EST = +62; signal line is +57
10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST = +78; signal line is +56

Sunday, October 20, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. UTIL 498.03 is key this week and is set to cause bearishness at the opening bell, unless the bulls can push utilities higher. The market bulls must keep UTIL above 498 this week and then above 500 starting next week for one month forward, otherwise, the upside for the broad indexes will be capped at current levels. GTX 4888, JJC 40.19 and VIX 14.92 are all key areas and levels to begin the week. All three are bullish so bears need to reverse one or all three and will gain bear fuel depending on how many of the parameters turn negative, if any.

For the SPX at new all-time highs starting at 1745, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures and it is an upside party to begin the week with price hitting the 1750 handle. Bears need to keep the futures red and push the SPX under 1736 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1737-1744 is sideways action to begin the week. The bulls are in control but the algo is overbot. UTIL 498, GTX 4888, JJC 40.19 and VIX 14.92 dictate market direction. If any one of the parameters turn bearish, the algo will be in imminent turn status. If 2 of the 4 parameters turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 1736, and stays below, Keybot will likely flip short. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week, one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. Stay alert. Markets are very erratic, indecisive and unstable. The current price action has potential of printing a significant longer-duration market top in the coming days.

10/27/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/22/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST = +78; signal line is +56
10/18/13; 12:40 PM EST = +78; signal line is +55

Saturday, October 19, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The bulls are taking no prisoners. Note the collapse in the VIX during the last 15 minutes of trading yesterday that catapults the SPX to close at 1745. GTX (commodities) tried to help the bears dropping under 4888 but the bulls pushed this higher to create more upside fuel. The algo is at the lofty 78% area again which is overbot. The bear killer last week was lower volatility that provided the bulk of the upside juice in the back half of the week.  UTIL 498.03 is a key number for all of next week. UTIL begins at 496.05 so immediately at the opening bell on Monday the bears will be thrown a life line. However, if UTIL jumps above 498, the bears are in for more pain. If Treasury yields fall, utilities move higher. If yields move higher, utes will likely move lower. The bulls are cruising. Next week's areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/18/13; 12:40 PM EST = +78; signal line is +55
10/18/13; 9:57 AM EST = +64; signal line is +54
10/18/13; 9:30 AM EST = +78; signal line is +52
10/17/13; 10:06 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50

Thursday, October 17, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the SPX prints new all-time highs today. GTX fell under 4888 to help the bears but the drastic drop in the VIX, now down to 13.48, well under the 14.94 bull-bear line in the sand, provided the upside rocket fuel today. Copper is weak but not weak enough to join the bear camp. Utilities UTIL jumps to 495. Remember, the UTIL 498 level is key for each day next week, so at 4 PM tomorrow, to end this week, monitor the final UTIL print. If UTIL ends this week above 498, the bulls are going to take equities higher early next week. The market bears must send UTIL lower tomorrow back into the 480's and lower, otherwise, further whippings will continue.

Friday will be a battle of copper and commodities. If GTX (commodities) moves above 4888, more bull fuel is provided and the SPX contnues higher. If JJC (copper) drops under 40.19, the bears send the SPX lower. If JJC drops under 40.19, and the SPX drops under 1714, a formidable task but not impossible, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. For the SPX, starting at the new all-time highs at 1733, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures and the high 1730's, perhaps a touch of 1740, are on the way in quick order. The bears will try to keep the futures negative and at the same time make sure copper and commodities head lower (higher dollar). If SPX drops under 1714, the downside will accelerate to 1710, 1708 and perhaps 1706 in short order. A move through 1715-1733 is sideways action to end the week. Watch GTX 4888, JJC 40.19, UTIL 498 and VIX 14.94 to determine market direction. The bulls are in control.

10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/13; 10:06 AM EST = +64; signal line is +50
10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST = +78; signal line is +48
10/16/13; 3:48 PM EST = +78; signal line is +46

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long as the bulls push markets higher into the closing bell today receiving fuel from the VIX collapsing under 14.94. The algo is at the highest levels since, wait for it, the market top at 9/18/13 when the algo printed +79.  The Keybot algo at its heart is an oscillator so by definition for an oscillator (such as RSI or stochastics), the +70% to +80% level and higher is overbot conditions where a potential market correction is needed to relieve the uber bullishness, and, the -70% to -80% level and lower is oversold conditions where a potential bull rally is needed to relieve the negative pressure. The algo number is +78 which is +78%, on the overbot side. All sectors and nearly all other parameters across the board are bullish; there is simply very little additional upside fuel available for markets.

Watch VIX 14.94 since it holds the key. Bears desperately need to push the VIX back above 14.94 to stop the market upside. Otherwise, markets continue floating higher. Bears also need UTIL under 484.08 which would stop the upside. With two days remaining this week, it is time to watch UTIL more closely as described last weekend (scroll back to read that message). The important comparison numbers for next week for UTIL are 498.03 and 484.08. Equity markets can receive more bull juice if utilities start moving higher tomorrow and through Friday and end the week at or near UTIL 498. This action will virtually guarantee new all-time highs for the SPX and Dow. Conversely, if UTIL remains lackluster in the 480's to finish the week, this will provide a feather in the bear's cap to begin next week's trading.

For the SPX in Thursday trading, beginning at the strong 1722 resistance, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the overnight futures and the all-time closing high at 1726 will be tested in quick order then perhaps the all-time high at 1730. The bears are simply trying to send volatility higher (VIX above 14.94) to stop the bleeding. If bears are lucky they will send UTIL under 484.08 and receive further fuel for the market downside. The bulls are cruising with their feet up on the dash. Judging from the September behavior, the markets may be at or near a top. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning but it should only tweak the numbers by a point or two. Watch volatility and utilities.

10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/13; 3:48 PM EST = +78; signal line is +46
10/16/13; 3:13 PM EST = +64; signal line is +44
10/16/13; 2:46 PM EST = +48; signal line is +41
10/16/13; 9:48 AM EST = +64; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls show up in a big way today. UTIL, GTX and JJC are all in the bull camp creating market upside. The SPX punches thorugh 1711.50, then 1715 resistance, then 1720, then 1722 holds, for now. The bulls are in full control again with the algo number 25 points above the signal line. The caution flag remains out due to the current instability of markets. Watch UTIL 484.08 and GTX 4888 for clues today.

10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/13; 9:48 AM EST = +64; signal line is +39
10/16/13; 9:30 AM EST = +48; signal line is +37
10/15/13; 2:32 PM EST = +34; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market roller coaster rolls along. The algo wants to go short right now but internal programming rules continue to prevent the move. Utilities, commodities and copper are dictating market direction with financials and retail creating a second-level affect. UTIL begins at 482.57 causing bearishness under 484.03, but at the same time causing bullishness above 476.94. Bulls will push equities higher if they regain 484.03. Markets would be in huge trouble if the UTIL 477 level would fail. Watch GTX 4888.34, now at 4881, creating market negativity, since its move at the bell will likely send markets in the same direction. Bulls need to move GTX above 4888 to take markets higher. Watch JJC 40.19, now at 40.53, causing market positivity. Market bears need to push JJC under 40.19 to lock in further equity downside. If UTIL stays under 484 and above 477, and GTX under 4888, and JJC above 40.19, status quo, the broad indexes will stagger sideways. If JJC drops under 40.19 and/or UTIL under 477, and the SPX drops under 1696, and stays under, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn status is displayed. Interestingly, copper is down in early trading which would send JJC lower for a test of 40.19, however, copper is bouncing around like a ping-pong ball these days and things may change by the open about 4 hours away. S&P futures are +7 pointing to a higher start.

For the SPX today starting at 1698, the bulls need to push above 1711.50 to create an upside acceleration which will tag 1715 in a flash and then perhaps 1720 and then the very strong 1722 resistance. The bears need to push under 1696 and a downside acceleration will occur to the strong 1691-1692 support in quick order. A move through 1697-1711 is sideways action. Watch UTIL 484, GTX 4888 and JJC 40.19.

10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/15/13; 2:32 PM EST = +34; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/15/13; 2:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +32

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long but the algo is wildly printing numbers today sending the algo number under the signal line. Other internal programming rules are prohibiting the algo from flipping short. Watch UTIL 484.08 and GTX 4888. Both are now on the bear side causing today's market weakness. UTIL is teasing at 484-ish as this is typed. Bears need JJC 40.19 to gain more downside mojo. Bulls need UTIL 484.08 or GTX 4888 and equities will recover into the closing bell. The bulls are driving the bus but the bears are starting to grab the steering wheel.

10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/15/13; 2:32 PM EST = +34; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/15/13; 2:18 PM EST = +48; signal line is +32
10/15/13; 2:01 PM EST = +64; signal line is +30
10/15/13; 1:56 PM EST = +50; signal line is +28
10/15/13; 1:45 PM EST = +64; signal line is +26
10/15/13; 1:26 PM EST = +48; signal line is +23
10/15/13; 10:17 AM EST = +64; signal line is +21
10/15/13; 9:36 AM EST = +50; signal line is +18
10/14/13; 12:04 PM EST = +64; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the Tuesday session. The bulls are taking no prisoners the last few days pumping markets higher on political happy talk. The algo number is nearly 50 points above the signal line; the bulls are cruising. Bulls need to push the VIX under 15 to receive the green light to SPX 1722, 1730 and perhaps 1750. Bears must keep volatility high and moving higher while retaking either UTIL 484.03, GTX 4888 and/or JJC 40.19. Any one of these 3 parameters will place a lid on the market upside. If these 3 parameters remain in the bull camp, equities will keep floating higher.

For the SPX starting at the important 1710 level, any smidge of green in the futures will set equities up for an upside acceleration and the SPX making its way to 1722. The bears need to push below the strong 1691-1692 support level to create downside mojo. A move through 1693-1709 is sideways action. S&P futures are +3 at this writing about 4 hours before the opening bell.

10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/14/13; 12:04 PM EST = +64; signal line is +16
10/14/13; 11:08 AM EST = +50; signal line is +13

Monday, October 14, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls retake GTX 4888 and UTIL 484. The SPX travels higher since the parameters add bull fuel. Price moves up through 1706 resistance, then 1708 and then test the important 1710 R. Bulls are cruising without care or worry.

10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/14/13; 12:04 PM EST = +64; signal line is +16
10/14/13; 11:08 AM EST = +50; signal line is +13
10/14/13; 10:18 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
10/14/13; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is underway. The algo prints a number at the bell as the sneaky markets flip-flop copper and commodities. JJC leaps above 40.19 creating bull fuel but GTX falls under 4888 creating bear fuel, thus, no real net change. Utilities weaken today with UTIL at a 485 handle. The critical 50-week MA is 484-ish right now and if that level fails, markets will take another leg lower (reference UTIL weekly chart and technical analysis at Keybot's sister site, The Keystone Speculator). JJC 40.19, GTX 4888 and UTIL 484 are driving the market directional ship today. SPX tests the 1691-1692 support and bounces. Market bears cannot gain mojo until a sub 1689 print occurs.

10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/14/13; 9:30 AM EST = +50; signal line is +9
10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +7

Sunday, October 13, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The current markets are a fight between financials and commodities in the bull camp against copper and volatility in the bear camp. Bulls need JJC 40.19 and VIX 15.00 to create upside strength taking the SPX far higher. Bears need GTX 4888 and XLF 20.02 to create market negativity sending the SPX back under 1700 and lower.

For the SPX starting at 1703, the bulls only need a tiny smidge of green in the overnight futures to create an upside acceleration that will likely take out the strong 1706 support and test 1708 and/or 1710. The bears need to push under 1689 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1690-1702 is sideways action for Monday. Watch copper in overnight trading since JJC is at 40.15 basically on top of the 40.19 pivot, thus, as copper goes, so goes the markets. Copper and commodities in general are key and GTX is very near its 4888 pivot as well. China economic data and dollar direction will affect copper and commodities. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Thursday morning. The bulls are in control. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

10/20/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/17/13; 9:00 AM EST =
10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST = +48; signal line is +7
10/11/13; 2:22 PM EST = +48; signal line is +6

Friday, October 11, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the weekend. GTX moves to and fro along 4888 which pushes the broad indexes the same way. GTX 4888 and JJC 40.19, commodities and copper, respectively, are key. The moves away from these pivot points sends markets in the same direction. GTX is helping the bulls right now while JJC is helping the bears. Bears need to push GTX under 4888 to stop the market upside. Bulls need to push JJC above 40.19 to send the SPX far higher.

10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/13; 2:22 PM EST = +48; signal line is +6
10/11/13; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +5
10/11/13; 11:43 AM EST = +48; signal line is +5
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long as the bulls squeeze out some additional upside juice. The SPX prints green so price moves higher to test the 1697-1698 resistance, and is rejected on the first try. There will likely be additional tries. GTX drops under 4888 which will help the bears place a lid on the market upside. JJC stays under 40.19. XLF is above 20.02 continuing to help the bulls. Bulls are trying to push VIX under 15 which would create further market upside sending the SPX above 1700. Market bears need to push the XLF under 20.02.

10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +4
10/11/13; 9:30 AM EST = +34; signal line is +3
10/10/13; 1:42 PM EST = +48; signal line is +3

Thursday, October 10, 2013

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long after a wild up day on Wall Street. The markets are news-driven and the Washington, D.C., political negotiations affecting markets continue into this evening. For Friday, bears need UTIL under 485.90, XLF under 20.02 and/or GTX 4888. Any one of these three parameters will place a ceiling on the market upside. Bank earnings before the bell will directly move the XLF which in turn will directly move equities. The bulls need to keep utes, financials and commodities bullish, and push JJC (copper) above 40.19 to receive additional upside fuel. 

For the SPX, since it closed at the high at 1692.56, the bulls only need to see one tiny hair of positivity in the futures overnight and it will be a continued rally higher tomorrow to 1697-1698 then 1706. The bears are trying to stop the upside momo and will accomplish that as described above. The bulls are cruising. Things sure did change quickly. Markets remain highly unstable, erratic and indecisive.

10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/10/13; 1:42 PM EST = +48; signal line is +3
10/10/13; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +2

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long. UTIL moves above 483.50 providing more bull fuel. The bulls are not taking any prisoners today with the Dow up 3 hundo. Bulls are cruising. There is no need for the caution flag since the algo number is 45 points above the signal line.

10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/10/13; 1:42 PM EST = +48; signal line is +3
10/10/13; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 11:33 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 11:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
10/10/13; 10:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2; go long 1681; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +17.9%)(Keybot this trade = +0.5%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.1%)(Actual this trade = +0.5%; Actual for 2013 = +7.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today with retail, financials, commodities and utilities leading the charge higher. Watch UTIL 483.63, 485.90 and XLF 20.02. The algo program and the actual trading gained one-half percent on the last trade. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO. The bulls are driving the bus.

10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/10/13; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 11:33 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 11:02 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
10/10/13; 10:45 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2; go long 1681; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +17.9%)(Keybot this trade = +0.5%; Keybot for 2013 = +14.1%)(Actual this trade = +0.5%; Actual for 2013 = +7.3%)
10/10/13; 10:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains short
10/10/13; 10:12 AM EST = +0; signal line is +2
10/10/13; 10:01 AM EST = -14; signal line is +1
10/10/13; 9:37 AM EST = +2; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
10/10/13; 9:36 AM EST = -14; signal line is +3
10/10/13; 9:30 AM EST = -30; signal line is +5
10/9/13; 3:30 PM EST = -14; signal line is +6
10/9/13; 1:54 PM EST = +2; signal line is +8
10/9/13; 1:46 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
10/9/13; 1:34 PM EST = +2; signal line is +9
10/9/13; 1:23 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
10/9/13; 1:00 PM EST = -30; signal line is +10
10/9/13; 11:15 AM EST = -14; signal line is +11
10/9/13; 10:12 AM EST = +2; signal line is +13
10/9/13; 9:51 AM EST = -14; signal line is +13
10/9/13; 9:30 AM EST = -30; signal line is +14
10/8/13; 2:03 PM EST = +0; signal line is +16
10/8/13; 1:41 PM EST = +16; signal line is +18
10/8/13; 12:46 PM EST = +32; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/8/13; 12:31 PM EST = +16; signal line is +19
10/8/13; 12:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
10/8/13; 11:24 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20
10/8/13; 11:14 AM EST = +32; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
10/8/13; 10:57 AM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/8/13; 10:44 AM EST = +32; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/7/13; 2:57 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/7/13; 1:38 PM EST = +2; signal line is +22
10/7/13; 11:43 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/7/13; 11:06 AM EST = +2; signal line is +24
10/7/13; 10:39 AM EST = -14; signal line is +24
10/7/13; 9:30 AM EST = +2; signal line is +25
10/6/13; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/13; 12:42 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/13; 10:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
10/4/13; 9:55 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/13; 9:30 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
10/4/13; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +24
10/3/13; 3:55 PM EST = +2; signal line is +25
10/3/13; 3:22 PM EST = +18; signal line is +27
10/3/13; 2:16 PM EST = +2; signal line is +29
10/3/13; 1:03 PM EST = +18; signal line is +30
10/3/13; 10:28 AM EST = +2; signal line is +32
10/3/13; 10:25 AM EST = +18; signal line is +34
10/3/13; 9:43 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35
10/3/13; 9:37 AM EST = +48; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
10/2/13; 3:58 PM EST = +50; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
10/2/13; 2:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +36
10/2/13; 1:25 PM EST = +50; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
10/2/13; 12:20 PM EST = +34; signal line is +37
10/2/13; 9:30 AM EST = +18; signal line is +38
10/1/13; 3:59 PM EST = +50; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/1/13; 2:24 PM EST = +18; signal line is +40
10/1/13; 2:18 PM EST = +34; signal line is +42
10/1/13; 12:35 PM EST = +50; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
10/1/13; 11:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +43
10/1/13; 9:32 AM EST = +18; signal line is +43
10/1/13; 9:30 AM EST = +2; signal line is +43
9/30/13; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +44
9/30/13; 9:30 AM EST = +18; signal line is +44
9/29/13; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +44
9/27/13; 11:51 AM EST = +18; signal line is +45
9/27/13; 10:37 AM EST = +32; signal line is +46
9/27/13; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +46
9/9/13; 9:59 AM EST = +18; signal line is +47; go short 1689; (Benchmark SPX for 2013 = +18.4%)(Keybot this trade = +1.7%; Keybot for 2013 = +13.6%)(Actual this trade = +1.5%; Actual for 2013 = +6.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the roller coaster ride continues. The algo is tracking many areas currently but it is easiest to boil it down to retail, RTH 54.79, and utilites, UTIL 483.63 and 485.90. The retail sector is creating bullishness but is on the ragged edge at 54.81 only 2 pennies from failure which will usher in market negativity. The utility sector is creating market bearishness but is also on the ragged edge at 483.16, only pennies from causing bullishness at 483.63 and then strong bullishness at 485.90. Thus, bears need to push RTH under 54.79 to create further market downside. Bulls need to push utilities higher to gain upside fuel. If UTIL moves above both the 483.63 and 485.90 levels, and the SPX moves above 1662.50, and all 3 parameters remain above, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is displayed.

For the SPX starting at 1656, the bulls need to push above 1662.50 to create an upside acceleration. The S&P futures are +13 as this message is typed about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell which would handily blow through 1662.50. The bears need to push under 1646.50 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 1647-1662 is sideways action. Markets remain erratic and are news-driven due to the ongoing political turmoil from Washington, D.C. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls may wrestle back control today.

10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/13; 3:30 PM EST = -14; signal line is +6
10/9/13; 1:54 PM EST = +2; signal line is +8

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the algo motors through another active day printing numbers like they are going out of style. RTH moves above 54.79 now helping market bulls. JJC and GTX collapsed into the bear camp at the opening bell. Utilities came out of no where catapulting higher today through the critical UTIL 483.63 and 485.90 levels. This utility bullish activity counteracts the commodity and copper negativity. UTIL is fighting along 483.63 right now. Market bears need RTH below 54.79 and UTIL under 483.63 to receive downside fuel. Market bulls need RTH above 54.79 and UTIL above 483.63 to receive upside fuel, and rocket fuel will be provided if UTIL 485.90 is taken out to the upside.

10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/13; 1:54 PM EST = +2; signal line is +8
10/9/13; 1:46 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
10/9/13; 1:34 PM EST = +2; signal line is +9
10/9/13; 1:23 PM EST = -14; signal line is +9
10/9/13; 1:00 PM EST = -30; signal line is +10
10/9/13; 11:15 AM EST = -14; signal line is +11
10/9/13; 10:12 AM EST = +2; signal line is +13
10/9/13; 9:51 AM EST = -14; signal line is +13
10/9/13; 9:30 AM EST = -30; signal line is +14
10/8/13; 2:03 PM EST = +0; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and markets remain a coin-flip. The retail sector faltered yesterday ushering in significant broad market weakness. Watch RTH 54.79. The algo is tracking seven areas with interest now but market direction can be boiled down to the behavior in retail, commodities and copper.  RTH is causing bearishness as mentioned but GTX 4888 and JJC 40.19 remains bullish. Commodities and copper allow the bulls to prevent an equity whoosh to the downside. If either GTX drops under 4888 and/or JJC under 40.19, there will be serious trouble ahead for markets. Copper is dropping -0.8% in early trading which would send the JJC under 40.19 at the opening bell. If bulls push RTH above 54.79 today, the upside market party will begin.

For the SPX starting at 1655, the bears have the easy road since price closed at the lows yesterday, and only need to drop under 1655 at the opening bell and the SPX will be on its way to test the strong 1652 and 1649 support. The bulls need to recover yesterday's losses and push above 1677, a difficult task. Instead, bulls will focus on pushing the retail, copper and commodity sectors higher which will stop the market downside. A move through 1655-1676 is sideways action. The imminent turn status will return in the title line above if the bulls push RTH over 54.79. If RTH moves above 54.79, and the SPX moves above 1677, and both stay above, it is conceivable that Keybot would flip to the long side. For now, the bears continue to drive the bus.

10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/13; 2:03 PM EST = +0; signal line is +16
10/8/13; 1:41 PM EST = +16; signal line is +18

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as another wild market day continues. Keybot is printing numbers like they are going out of style. Utilities attacked UTIL 483.63 but cannot remain above so this aids the bears. RTH failed 54.79 which creates this afternoons weakness. The retail sector moves into the bear camp so watch this closely moving forward. Bears are cruising but markets remain erratic and indecisive and anything can happen.

10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/13; 2:03 PM EST = +0; signal line is +16
10/8/13; 1:41 PM EST = +16; signal line is +18
10/8/13; 12:46 PM EST = +32; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short
10/8/13; 12:31 PM EST = +16; signal line is +19
10/8/13; 12:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
10/8/13; 11:24 AM EST = +16; signal line is +20
10/8/13; 11:14 AM EST = +32; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
10/8/13; 10:57 AM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/8/13; 10:44 AM EST = +32; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/7/13; 2:57 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short in an erratic and indecisive market. Copper is the bulls best friend with JJC staying above 40.19 causing market positivity. The algo is also tracking GTX 4888, RTH 54.79 and XLF 20.02. Commodities and retail are causing bullishness while financials cause market bearishness, respectively. Bulls need XLF above 20.02 to gain upside fuel. Bears need to push either JJC, GTX and/or RTH under the levels shown to gain downside fuel. GTX starts the day at 4889 one single hair on the bull side so watch this closely.

For the SPX starting at 1676, the bears have the easy road ahead, only needing one negative point, to drop under 1675 and lower, to create a downside acceleration to test the strong 1669 support where price will either bounce, or die. The bulls need to push above 1687 to ignite an upside acceleration to the strong 1691-1692 resistance. A move through 1676-1686 is sideways action. The imminent turn notation is in the title line since the algo number is only 5 points from the signal line. If the XLF moves above 20.02, and the SPX moves above 1687, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. The S&P futures are flat at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell.

10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/7/13; 2:57 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/7/13; 1:38 PM EST = +2; signal line is +22

Monday, October 7, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as another active week begins with the algo printing five numbers thus far today. The algo is tracking UTIL 483.61 and 485.90, XLF 20.02, JJC 40.19 and GTX 4888. All parameters are causing market negativity except for copper with JJC above 40.19. GTX is teasing 4888 currently at 4884 as this message is typed. Bulls can stop the equity downside if they push at least one of the bearish parameters, UTIL, XLF and GTX, to the bull side. The market bears have a hair more breathing room but it is nothing to write home about. Markets remain erratic and indecisive.

10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/7/13; 1:38 PM EST = +2; signal line is +22
10/7/13; 11:43 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/7/13; 11:06 AM EST = +2; signal line is +24
10/7/13; 10:39 AM EST = -14; signal line is +24
10/7/13; 9:30 AM EST = +2; signal line is +25
10/6/13; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short

Sunday, October 6, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new trading week is set to begin. Markets are in a choppy sideways pattern chewing up bulls and bears. Commodities and utilities are causing market bearishness, GTX 4889 and UTIL 483.53 and 485.90, respectively, so the bulls must regain one of these levels to push markets higher. UTIL closed at 480 on Friday so utes will create market weakness at the opening bell. Financials and copper are causing the market upside, XLF 20.01 and JJC 40.13, respectively, so the bears need to push prices under one or both of these levels to gain downside energy.

For the SPX starting at 1691, the bulls have the easy road, only needing to push one-point higher, and touch the 1692 handle, to create an upside acceleration to 1700+, so watch the futures overnight to see if the bulls have the upper hand to begin the week. The bears need to push under 1678 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1679-1691 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The algo wants to flip to the long side as evidenced by the algo number higher than the signal line number, however, the internal programming rules will not yet permit the move to the long side. At the opening bell, the algo number will likely drop lower due to lower utilities. Markets are a crap-shoot right now, very indecisive and erratic. Flip a coin.

10/13/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/13; 10:00 AM EST =
10/6/13; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/13; 12:42 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short

Saturday, October 5, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. Weak utilities and commodities, along with higher volatility, create equity weakness. Higher copper and financials are helping the bulls maintain elevated equities. The algo was very active last week as sideways choppiness chews up bulls and bears each day. Note that UTIL closed at 480 under both the 483.53 and 485.90 key levels for next week creating increased market negativity when the bell rings Monday morning. If the bulls would have pushed the SPX above 1692 late yesterday, Keybot would have likely flipped long. The algo wants to go long right now but the internal programming rules are not lined up properly to flip the trigger. The market choppiness will likely continue. Next weeks areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

10/6/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/13; 12:42 PM EST = +34; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/13; 10:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24

Friday, October 4, 2013

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish but the algo continues on a wild printing spree this week with markets very indecisive on which way to run. Copper is stronger, JJC above 40.13, so equities move higher. GTX punched through 4889, but then retreated. XLF is pennies from 20.01. The GTX 4889 and XLF 20.01 levels will launch broad market upside. If one of them turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 1692, and stays above, the algo will likely flip to the long side. Bears need to keep GTX and XLF bearish and push JJC back under 40.13. Utilities are weak.  Watch UTIL 485.90 at the closing bell today since this number carries clout all next week. If UTIL stays under 485.90 late afternoon, as well as under the 50-week MA at 483.53-ish, this will create equity weakness for Monday morning's opening bell.

10/6/13; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/13; 10:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
10/4/13; 9:55 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/4/13; 9:30 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
10/4/13; 9:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +24
10/3/13; 3:55 PM EST = +2; signal line is +25