Tuesday, June 30, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Note how the financials, XLF, came up to kiss the 24.60 level but the bulls did not have the juice to take it higher so the upside stalled for the broad stock market. Is is amazing that the Keybot algorithm can call these levels out before they occur; an astounding feat. In the afternoon, the bulls pushed commodities higher and that kept stocks buoyant through the closing bell.

For Wednesday, the battle is between the NYA Index, XLF (financials) and GTX (commodities). Bulls need either NYA above 10895 and/or XLF above 24.60 to receive upside energy in the stock market. The caution flag is out since either of these two parameters turning bullish will indicate more upside ahead for stocks. If both turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play and Keybot will likely flip to the long side. The bears need to push GTX under 3217 to receive juice to push stocks lower. GTX begins at 3226 only 9 points above.

For the SPX starting at 2063, the bulls need to push above 2074 which will create a strong upside acceleration into the 2080's. The bears need to push under 2056 to accelerate the downside towards 2044. A move through 2057-2073 is sideways action.

7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/15; 7:00 PM EST; EOM; EOQ2; EOH1 = -24; signal line is +7
6/30/15; 2:02 PM EST = -24; signal line is +8
6/30/15; 10:00 AM EST = -38; signal line is +9
6/29/15; 11:07 AM EST = -41; signal line is +10

Monday, June 29, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears came to play today pushing stocks strongly lower. Retail stocks failed as well as financials creating negativity. Also the NYA Index. Bears will receive additional downside fuel if the SPX drops under 2038. The bulls will stop the market selling with either NYA 10895 and/or XLF 24.60. The bears are cruising but anything can happen. The NYA and XLF levels will directly gauge the strength of any relief rally.

For the SPX starting at 2058 on Tuesday, the bears need to push under 2057 to accelerate the downside so watch to see if any negativity appears in the S&P futures. The bulls need to recover today's loss to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will try and push the NYA Index and financials higher to stop the market selling.

7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/15; 7:00 PM EST; EOM; EOQ2; EOH1 =
6/30/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/29/15; 11:07 AM EST = -41; signal line is +10
6/29/15; 10:22 AM EST = -27; signal line is +11
6/29/15; 9:36 AM EST = -11; signal line is +12
6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST = +5; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to begin the new week of trading. Greece fails to reach a bailout agreement so there is downside pressure in stocks. The bears need to push retail stocks lower by pushing RTH under 76.00 to gain more downside juice.  The bulls need to push either VIX under 13.73 or GTX above 3219 to stop the market selling.

For the SPX starting the week at 2101, the bulls need to touch the 2109 handle to accelerate the upside but this is not on tap for the open. The bears need to push under 2095 to accelerate the downside. S&P futures are down about 21 points so the SPX 2095 should fail in the opening minute or two. Price will seek support at 2091, 2086 and then the 2072-2081 zone if the upper levels fail. Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week during a four-day trading week. Markets are closed on Friday for the July 4th holiday.

7/5/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/15; 7:00 PM EST; EOM; EOQ2; EOH1 =
6/30/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST = +5; signal line is +12
6/26/15; 10:00 AM EST = +5; signal line is +12

Saturday, June 27, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side through the weekend. The model flipped short at SPX 2106 on Thursday as the sideways choppy price action continues this year. Markets remain a coin-flip and subject to the Greece bailout negotiations. The PBOC (China's central bank) cut rates today which will pump stocks higher on Monday. Volatility, commodities and retail stocks are key for next week. The areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

On the last trade, the algorithm program gains +0.6% and the actual trading gains +1.1%. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. The benchmark SPX is up a couple percent this year. The algo program and actual trading metrics are flat on the year. Stocks can go either way on Monday; flip a coin.

6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/15; 10:00 AM EST = +5; signal line is +12
6/25/15; 3:44 PM EST = +3; signal line is +12
6/25/15; 3:41 PM EST = +17; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
6/25/15; 3:11 PM EST = +33; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
6/25/15; 3:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
6/25/15; 2:18 PM EST = +3; signal line is +12; go short 2106; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -0.2%)
6/25/15; 2:06 PM EST = +17; signal line is +12
6/24/15; 10:50 AM EST = +33; signal line is +13
6/24/15; 10:16 AM EST = +47; signal line is +12
6/22/15; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +9
6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +8
6/19/15; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7
6/19/15; 3:52 PM EST = +33; signal line is +6
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4
6/18/15; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +3
6/18/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:26 PM EST = -13; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 2:08 PM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 12:12 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:59 AM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 1:20 PM EST = +3; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/15/15; 9:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 2:11 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 1:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +7
6/12/15; 11:49 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 11:31 AM EST = +17; signal line is +8
6/12/15; 10:40 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
6/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
6/10/15; 9:47 AM EST = +28; signal line is +9; go long 2094; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.3%)

Sunday, June 21, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long to begin the new week of trading. The bulls need higher utilities and lower volatility to keep the stock market party moving to the upside. The bears need lower financials to begin growling and turn the tables on the bulls. Bulls need either UTIL above 572.92 (now at 569.68) and/or VIX below 13.90 (now at 13.96). Bears need XLF below 24.54 (now at 24.74). If XLF loses the 24.54 level, and the SPX is under 2109, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 2110, the bulls need to touch the 2122 handle to launch an immediate strong move to 2130. The bears need to push under 2109, only one point lower, to accelerate a downside move for the stock market. Watch the S&P futures to see if the bears can muster up one negative point, or not. A move through 2110-2121 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Watch VIX 13.90 closely since price is only six pennies away in the bear camp. Bulls win big if VIX moves below 13.90 while bears win big if volatility climbs higher.

6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +8
6/19/15; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7

Saturday, June 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. UTIL tags the 570 level and VIX 13.90 level in the final minutes of trading for the week. It is astounding and remarkable that the mathematical algorithm can predict these exact levels before they occur. The information should be appreciated more by the thousands of followers, if not, the site may go dark at anytime. For Monday, the VIX 13.90 and UTIL 572.92 levels will play a key role. The week ahead can be assessed after the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints tomorrow.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/15; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7
6/19/15; 3:52 PM EST = +33; signal line is +6
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4

Friday, June 19, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in full control with the algo number 45 points above the signal line. Bulls can receive further upside juice if GTX moves above 3228 (now at 3203 in the bear camp). The bears can stop the stock market rally if either VIX moves above 13.90 (now at 13.19 in the bull camp) or if UTIL drops under 570 (now at 575 in the bull camp). At the closing bell today, watch UTIL 573 which will be the bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week (572.92 to be exact). If UTIL is under 573 as today's trading ends, that is a heads up that market weakness will be likely on Monday morning. If UTIL ends the day above 573, the bulls will be celebrating all weekend long.

For the SPX starting at 2121, the bulls need to touch the 2127 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate and test the all-time high at 2135 in very quick order. The bears need to push under 2102 to accelerate the downside that will target 2091. A move through 2103-2125 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are flat as this message is typed about one-half hour before the opening bell.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4
6/18/15; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +3

Thursday, June 18, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls send stocks wildly higher the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq at record highs. Utilities and retail stocks jump higher and volatility collapses creating the bull fuel to rocket equities higher. The bulls are cruising.

The market bears can only stop the party if UTIL drops under 570.03 (now at 573) and/or if the VIX moves above 13.90 (now at 13.34). The bulls will receive further upside fuel if GTX (commodities) moves above 3228 (now at 3201).

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4
6/18/15; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +3
6/18/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2

Monday, June 15, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side. The bulls will receive further upside juice with either UTIL above 570.03 (now at 567.03), or VIX under 13.91 (now at 14.50) or RTH above 75.88 (now at 75.66). Bears will steal control if SOX drops under 714.90 (now at 715.20) and if the semi's turn bearish, and if the SPX drops under 2089, both are required, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX on Thursday, 6/18/15, starting at 2100, the bulls need to touch the 2107 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate well above 2110. The bears need to push under 2089 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2090-2099 is sideways action for Thursday.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/17/15; 2:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:26 PM EST = -13; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 2:08 PM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 12:12 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:59 AM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 1:20 PM EST = +3; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/15/15; 9:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long

Sunday, June 14, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. The algorithm is champing at the bit to go short and came within about one minute of flipping short on Friday only to remain long since all the necessary parameters would not latch on Friday to permit the move. Monday appears to be set up for a fight between semiconductors and commodities, in the bear camp, and volatility, in the bull camp. The price action is testing levels called amazingly out by Keybot in advance of when the levels occur; this is astounding and impressive for the mathematical model. The thousands of daily users should appreciate this information far more; otherwise it may disappear at anytime.

The bulls need either SOX above 715.08 (now at 714.13) and/or GTX above 3232 (now at 3206) to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. The bears were knocking on the door during Friday's session to flip the model to the short side and will do that if the SPX drops under 2091. If volatility jumps higher, the VIX above 14.28 (now at 13.78), the algorithm may immediately flip short regardless of where the SPX price is at.

For the SPX starting at 2094, the bulls need to push above 2107 to accelerate the upside well above 2110. The bears need to push under 2091 to accelerate the downside into the mid 2080's. A move through 2092-2106 is sideways action to begin the new week. Monday will be an interesting day of trading. Watch to see if the S&P futures can muster up three points of downside to give the bears the upper hand, or not. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 2:11 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 1:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +7
6/12/15; 11:49 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 11:31 AM EST = +17; signal line is +8
6/12/15; 10:40 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long

Friday, June 12, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number under the signal line. The internal programming rules have not all latched so the move to the short side is not yet permitted. Weakness in commodities and semiconductors creates today's market downside. If the SPX drops under 2093, less than one point away, and remains under for several minutes, Keybot will likely flip short. If the VIX pops above 14.28, then Keybot will likely automatically flip short. If the SOX moves above 715.08, now at 714.42 in the bear camp, then the bulls will recover and stocks will float higher. The bulls are driving the bus but the bears also have their hands on the wheel trying to wrestle back control. The drama continues.

Pay attention to UTIL 570.03 which is a key bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week. Thus, at 4 PM today, this will give you a heads up for next week. If UTIL closes above 570 the bulls are in great shape to begin Monday trading. If UTIL remains under 570, the bears receive a feather in their caps. Pay attention to GTX 3232 since bulls will rally stocks if this level is taken out to the upside.

6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/15; 10:40 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
6/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
6/10/15; 9:47 AM EST = +28; signal line is +9; go long 2094; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.3%)

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side shortly after the opening bell as semi's jump higher and volatility drops creating a double-whammy of joy for market bulls. Bears need either GTX under 3232 and/or VIX above 14.28 to halt the upside in stocks. Higher copper and/or retail stocks will create further market upside.

The benchmark SPX is up +1.7% this year. The Keybot the Quant algorithm computer program gains a hair on the year. The actual trading results, which factors in commissions, mechanical inefficiencies and other real-life trading aspects remains down on the year about one percent. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO using the 2x ETF's since a whipsaw has not occurred in the last couple months. The choppy sideways markets continue in 2015 chewing up bulls and bears alike.

6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/10/15; 9:47 AM EST = +28; signal line is +9; go long 2094; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.3%)
6/10/15; 9:40 AM EST = +28; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
6/9/15; 10:42 AM EST = -2; signal line is +9
6/9/15; 9:48 AM EST = -16; signal line is +10
6/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is +11
6/8/15; 12:46 PM EST = -16; signal line is +11
6/8/15; 12:16 PM EST = +0; signal line is +13
6/8/15; 12:08 PM EST = -16; signal line is +13
6/8/15; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15
6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +16
6/5/15; 3:53 PM EST = +14; signal line is +16
6/5/15; 3:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +16
6/5/15; 2:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is +17
6/5/15; 2:47 PM EST = +0; signal line is +18
6/5/15; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19
6/5/15; 1:50 PM EST = +0; signal line is +19
6/5/15; 1:35 PM EST = +14; signal line is +21
6/5/15; 9:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
6/4/15; 10:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +22
6/4/15; 9:55 AM EST = +14; signal line is +23
6/4/15; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +24
6/3/15; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/3/15; 3:51 PM EST = +14; signal line is +27
6/3/15; 3:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/3/15; 3:24 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
6/3/15; 2:13 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31
6/3/15; 11:54 AM EST = +14; signal line is +32
6/3/15; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
6/3/15; 10:46 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
6/2/15; 10:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
6/2/15; 10:29 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
6/2/15; 10:10 AM EST = +0; signal line is +39
6/2/15; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +41
6/1/15; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
6/1/15; 11:35 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
6/1/15; 11:04 AM EST = +30; signal line is +45
6/1/15; 10:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +46
6/1/15; 10:07 AM EST = +30; signal line is +48
6/1/15; 9:54 AM EST = +16; signal line is +49
5/31/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +51
5/29/15; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +53
5/27/15; 10:17 AM EST = +33; signal line is +54
5/27/15; 9:45 AM EST = +17; signal line is +56
5/26/15; 3:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +58
5/26/15; 10:13 AM EST = +19; signal line is +59
5/26/15; 10:00 AM EST = +35; signal line is +60
5/26/15; 9:31 AM EST = +35; signal line is +62; go short 2121; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Wednesday session. There is only 10 points difference between the algo number and signal line and the bulls are staging a comeback. Yesterday, the NYA came down to the critical 10887 bull-bear line in the sand and bounced preventing substantive market failure. Isn't it amazing that the algorithm highlights these key levels before they occur? There is nothing like it available on the entire internet. The NYA 10887 remains a key level to watch.

The bulls sent GTX (commodities) above 3232 creating upside for stocks so watch this closely today; GTX begins at 3245. Semi's are in the bear camp with SOX at 711.60 but bulls will receive strong upside juice if 714.80 is taken out. VIX 14.28 is another key level with price at 14.47 causing bearishness in equities currently.

If either the VIX drops under 14.28 and/or the SOX moves above 714.80, either will do, and the SPX moves above 2086, and the moves are sustainable, it is likely that Keybot will flip to the long side. Bears will receive downside juice with either GTX under 3232 and/or NYA under 10887.

For the SPX starting at 2080, the bulls need to touch the 2086 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate and Keybot may flip long as per the above notes. S&P futures are +7 about 90 minutes in front of the opening bell. The bears need to push under 2072 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2073-2085 is sideways action. The imminent turn notation is in the title line since stronger chips and lower volatility may cause Keybot to flip long today.

6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/9/15; 10:42 AM EST = -2; signal line is +9
6/9/15; 9:48 AM EST = -16; signal line is +10
6/9/15; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is +11
6/8/15; 12:46 PM EST = -16; signal line is +11

Monday, June 8, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears growl today creating market weakness with lower semiconductors and higher volatility. For Tuesday, bulls need either SOX above 714.80 and/or VIX under 14.30 to stop the market selling. Bears need to push either NYA under 10887 and/or XLF under 24.54 to create further market selling.

For the SPX starting at 2079, any red in the S&P futures will create a downside acceleration after the opening bell. The bulls must fight to keep the futures positive. The bulls must push the SPX above 2093 to accelerate the upside. A move through 2080-2092 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus and receive more fuel with a weaker NYA Index and/or financials. Bulls will begin a recovery rally if semiconductors move higher or volatility lower.

6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/8/15; 12:46 PM EST = -16; signal line is +11
6/8/15; 12:16 PM EST = +0; signal line is +13
6/8/15; 12:08 PM EST = -16; signal line is +13
6/8/15; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15
6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +16

Sunday, June 7, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short going into the new week of trading. The bulls need to push retail and utility stocks higher to stop the market selling. Watch RTH 76.22 with price now at 74.99 helping the bears. The bears need either NYA under 10890 and/or the VIX above 14.41 to create downside broad market selling. If all three parameters remain status quo with RTH bearish and NYA and VIX bullish, stocks will float along sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 2093, the bulls need to push above 2101 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2086 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2087-2100 is sideways action to begin the week. The bears are in control but as seen by the two-point difference between the algo number and signal line, the bulls and bears are in an intense battle currently.

6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST = +14; signal line is +16
6/5/15; 3:53 PM EST = +14; signal line is +16

Saturday, June 6, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side and the algo prints another active day on Friday. Financials ran higher helping the bulls and in the afternoon volatility dropped so bears were unable to gain any downside traction. The bears will need to push either the NYA Index lower or volatility higher on Monday to create selling pressure, otherwise the bulls will keep gunning for a recovery rally. There is only a two-point difference between the algo number and signal line verifying the ongoing bull-bear struggle.

6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/15; 3:53 PM EST = +14; signal line is +16
6/5/15; 3:44 PM EST = +0; signal line is +16
6/5/15; 2:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is +17
6/5/15; 2:47 PM EST = +0; signal line is +18
6/5/15; 2:18 PM EST = +14; signal line is +19
6/5/15; 1:50 PM EST = +0; signal line is +19
6/5/15; 1:35 PM EST = +14; signal line is +21
6/5/15; 9:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +21
6/4/15; 10:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +22

Thursday, June 4, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The market bears came to play pushing retail stocks lower and volatility higher creating market negativity. Friday will be a fight between financials and volatility. Bulls will stop the market selling if VIX drops under 14.42 now at 14.71. Market bears will create further market mayhem if XLF drops under 24.50 now at 24.65.

For the SPX starting at 2096, the bulls need to touch the 2113 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 2118-2122 very quickly. The bears need to push under 2093 which will immediately test 2091 and then collapse stocks down into the 2080's. A move through 2094-2112 is sideways action to end the week. The bears are driving the bus. Watch financials and volatility since these two parameters are most greatly impacting market direction currently.

6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/4/15; 10:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +22
6/4/15; 9:55 AM EST = +14; signal line is +23
6/4/15; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +24
6/3/15; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a very active day for the algorithm printing eight numbers. Keybot is champing at the bit to go long right now but several internal programming rules will not yet latch to permit the flip to the long side. If the SPX moves above 2122 in Thursday's trade and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long. If a gap-up open occurs, Keybot will ikely not flip long and instead a timer may prevent the move for about 90 minutes. If copper and commodities are hugely strong in early trading, Keybot may flip long quicker.

The bears will come ready to play as well and need to send retail stocks lower to place a lid on the broad market upside. Watch RTH 76.25 as the line in the sand with price now at 76.59 which created bullish lift in stocks today. Bears need RTH under 76.25 pronto or they will be punched in the face. Bears can also create market negativity by pushing VIX above 14.42.

To keep it simple, watch RTH 76.25 and SPX 2122 as key pivots that dictate broad market direction forward. For the SPX starting at 2114, the bulls need to touch the 2122 handle and bingo price will seek 2130 quickly. The bears need to push under 2110 to accelerate the downside that will target 2100 quickly. A move through 2111-2121 is sideways action for Thursday. The bears remain in control but are only holding on by a thread.

6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/3/15; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/3/15; 3:51 PM EST = +14; signal line is +27
6/3/15; 3:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/3/15; 3:24 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
6/3/15; 2:13 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31
6/3/15; 11:54 AM EST = +14; signal line is +32
6/3/15; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
6/3/15; 10:46 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
6/2/15; 10:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the week is well underway with Wednesday trading ahead. UTIL lost its critical 50-week MA at 584.66 which ushers in market weakness but the bulls boost commodities and financials, and push volatility lower, to save the day. Broad market direction is currently a fight between utilities and retail stocks, supporting the bears, and financials and volatility, supporting the bulls.

Bears need either VIX above 14.42 (now at 14.24) and/or XLF under 24.50 (now at 24.66) to create downside market mayhem. The market bulls need to push either UTIL above 584.66 (now at 580.12) and/or RTH above 76.23 (now at 75.73). One of these four characters will flinch and dictate the stock market direction. If all four stay in their respective camps, markets stagger sideways with a slight upward bias. If UTIL or RTH turn bullish, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2118, Keybot will likely flip long.

For the SPX starting at 2110, the bulls need to touch the 2118 handle and bingo, price will quickly run up into the 2120's. The bears need to push under 2099 to accelerate the downside to 2091 in a heartbeat. A move through 2100-2117 is sideways action for Wednesday.

6/7/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/5/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/2/15; 10:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
6/2/15; 10:29 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
6/2/15; 10:10 AM EST = +0; signal line is +39
6/2/15; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +41
6/1/15; 12:08 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
6/1/15; 11:35 AM EST = +16; signal line is +43
6/1/15; 11:04 AM EST = +30; signal line is +45
6/1/15; 10:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +46
6/1/15; 10:07 AM EST = +30; signal line is +48
6/1/15; 9:54 AM EST = +16; signal line is +49
5/31/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +51