STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market remains elevated. Go figure. Utilities, chips and retail stocks are in the bear camp creating market negativity while banks, copper and volatility are in the bull camp partying like its 1999 a la Prince. The stock market is erratic and unstable in this crazy chaos.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 19 points below the signal line but you would not know it with the bulls partying everyday buying stocks with both fists. Bears need XLF below 56.00, CPER below 38.90, and/or VIX above 17.18. Any 1 of the 3 turning negative may be enough to finally send stocks south. Carnage occurs in the stock market if all 3 turn bearish.

The bulls need UTIL above 1093, SOX above 12125, and/or XRT above 88.09 to guarantee a path higher for stocks. The bulls likely need 2 of the 3 to turn bullish to place the quant in position to go long. Write all 6 numbers on a post-it note and stick it on your forehead.

Utilities took the pipe on Friday but no one noticed since they were too busy buying stocks. UTIL, or DJU, collapses to 1075. That will get your attention. The bulls desperately need UTIL back above 1093 pronto or there will be Hell to pay going forward. When utilities lead the broad market lower, that spells major trouble and places a potential crash scenario on the table over the coming weeks. Watch utes closely this week.

Donnie Chump will likely comment on the Iran War and perhaps the failed Canada trade talks this afternoon to manipulate the futures market that opens at 6 PM EST. Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning. The month of August ends (EOM) on the following Monday. There is likely more oddball price action ahead this week. It is Sunday morning and people are losing the faith. Losing My Religion. Great electric mandolin action by Peter Buck.

8/31/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/28/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +23
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. It is odd times with odd price action. The bears are in control with the algo number 21 points below the signal line but no one told the bulls that keep rallying stocks.

Watch utes, chips and retail stocks, specifically, UTIL 1112.15, UTIL 1092.72, SOX 12130 and XRT 88.05, respectively. UTIL is at 1096 below 1112.15 creating negativity in the stock market. This number is meaningless at 4 PM EST today and replaced with 1092.72 for all of next week. If price finishes above 1093 today, that is a feather in the bulls cap come Monday. If, however, as price slips away today, UTIL closes below 1093, that sets up for bigtime negativity in the stock market next week. If you have a lot of longs, you should gird your loins and consider lightening up into the weekend if you see utes taking the pipe. One or the other outcomes will occur this afternoon.

Chips and retail stocks are creating negativity so bulls need prices above those lines in the sand. If so, the fix is in and the stock market is fine. If UTIL 1093 is lost today, that means big trouble, and if the VIX pops above 17.22, it is over for the stock market. For now, it is a coin-flip until one of the above metrics flinch. 

At about 10 AM EST, UTIL is 1099, SOX is 11794 and XRT is 87.38. The status is quo, so far. Jane Says she does not know what to do. Dig the steel drum sound.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/26; 12:07 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 11:05 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 10:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +4; signal line is +26
8/19/26; 10:34 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/19/26; 10:16 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 10:09 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/19/26; 9:40 AM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
8/19/26; 9:39 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the circus atmosphere continues. Utilities, chips and retail stocks are running the show and all three are in the bear camp creating the negativity in today's tape.

Bears need weaker copper and higher volatility to confirm the path to carnage. Bulls need stronger utes, chips and retail stocks. More retail stock yearnings are on tap this week.

The bears are in charge, although you would not know it since the stock market has rallied higher, with the algo number 21 points below the signal line. Things can change quickly as evidenced by today's action with the quant spitting out six numbers.

UTIL 1112.15, SOX 12147, XRT 88.10, CPER 38.83 and VIX 17.22 are the bull/bear lines in the sand you can watch the rest of the week. Utes, semi's and  retail stocks are bearish creating negativity in the stock market while copper and volatility remain in the bull camp telling everyone the selling is no biggie.

Bears need CPER below 38.83 and/or VIX above 17.22 to start slashing deeply creating big wounds. If VIX pops above 17.22, it is over for the bulls. Stocks will fall apart.

Bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1112.15, and/or SOX above 12147 and/or XRT above 88.10. If retail earnings are beats, you will know the fix is in and bulls will stage a comeback starting with a rally in XRT. Overnight chip hype will send the semiconductors higher that will create higher stocks. 

The stage is set. Five parameters. Simply gauge stock market direction by the interplay of these five metrics. Pay attention to copper and volatility. If these are lost to the bear camp, the drop in stocks may be quite dramatic and the slashing will begin in earnest. The First Cut Is the Deepest. Sheryl is singing a Cat Stevens tune he wrote back in the 60's. He calls himself Yusuf nowadays. Sheryl Crow has been hanging out in Nashville the last couple decades. She has a scar on her head from early days playing in a routy biker bar when someone threw a beer bottle and it hit her in the face. That's a rough crowd. Sometimes you will see chicken wire fence covering the entire space in front of a stage to stop the projectiles. Her parents were musicians and music teachers; she plays a couple dozen instruments.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 2:24 PM EST = +4; signal line is +25
8/18/26; 12:56 PM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 10:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 11:18 AM EST = +20; signal line is +27
8/17/26; 10:10 AM EST = +36; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading is off and stumbling. UTIL fell below 1112 maintaining negativity for stocks. A few minutes ago, XRT fell below the 88.12 line in the sand ushering in negativity. Those control the stock market. Watch UTIL 1112 and XRT 88.12.

Bears need weaker chips and higher volatility if they want to create downside carnage. Bulls will squash the bears again and place the model in position to go long by bringing XRT back above 88.12. UTIL is at 1105 and XRT is at 88.04. It is a game of pennies and dollars. Life can be a day late and a dollar short. Story of My Life.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/26; 9:49 AM EST = +20; signal line is +29
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. The SPX price, utilities, retail stocks and chips are all that matter.

If the SPX moves above 7810, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a 24-point gain so watch this evening and overnight to see if the S&P futures are up +24 points. As usual, bulls do not want a big gap-up opening for the SPX since that may delay the flip long.

The UTIL 1112.15 line in the sand for all of this week has been previously mentioned. The market makers parked UTIL at 1112.39 to end last week trying to set up a bullish week ahead. The bulls have it by 24 pennies and utilities will create more lift in the stock market if the numbers hold. If UTIL remains above 1112.15 and moving higher towards 1124, the bulls will be celebrating more new highs for stocks. Bears need UTIL back below 1112.15 pronto, preferable out of the gate, to stay in the game.

Bears need XRT below 88.01 and the retail yearnings on tap this week will be sending XRT to and fro. Bears need SOX below 12130 to create downside in stocks. Bears ultimately got nothing unless, or until, they push VIX above 17.63 and it currently has a 14-handle. Donnie Chump should provide some type of commentary or happy talk this afternoon to influence the futures that begin trading at 6 PM EST.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. Bulls will likely flip the model long above SPX 7810 and receive more juice with UTIL above 1112. Bears will stop the bull orgy if they pull UTIL below 1112, XRT below 88.01 and/or SOX below 12130. Yesterday was party day so folks are waking up with headaches. Sunday Morning Coming Down. Kris Kristofferson wrote the tune but it was immediately adopted by Johnny Cash, Kris was always pitching songs to Johnny, and everyone always associated the song with the Man in Black. On a Sunday morning sidewalk, I'm wishing Lord that I was stoned, 'cause there's something in a Sunday, that makes a body feel alone.

8/23/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 3:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
8/11/26; 12:05 PM EST = +20; signal line is +30
8/11/26; 9:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short so the stock market drama continues. Bulls had it on a silver platter but they could not convert. The SOX pukes into the closing bell falling below the 12080 line in the sand creating negativity to end the day.

As semiconductors go, so goes the market. SOX begins tomorrow at 11994 so bulls need 86 points to prove that they still got game and can place the algo in position to go long. Bulls, and the stock market, are in trouble if the SOX continues sinking lower.

Utilities remain bearish creating negativity with UTIL under 1124 at 1088.

Volatility remains tame with a 15 handle and the bears need VIX above 17.68, a couple sticks higher, to create negativity. Bears have buptkis unless they can push VIX above 17.68.

Bears need GTX below 5270 but Trumpflation sends price to 5514 creating bullishness.

Bulls need stronger utes and semiconductors. Bears need higher volatility and weaker commodities. Watch SOX because bulls and bears are battling while balancing on a tightrope; one will win and one will lose. Don't Stop Believin'. Some'll win, some will lose, some are born to sing the blues. Journey had quite a journey. Decades ago, Steve Perry the front man, did not want to sing anymore so the band was toast. What will they do? Then someone said you should check out this Filipino dude on YouTube he sings all the Journey songs. They thought it was a joke but the band was surprised at how good a singer Arnel Pineda was so they called him in for an audition. The rest is history. Arnel deserves to be on stage. He is a fantastic talent and adds a new energy to the band and Journey remains popular to this day. Neil Schon is a helluva guitarist. Watch the chips.

8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/26; 3:57 PM EST = +20; signal line is +32
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long, finally? It has been a strange week of trading with a big orgy rally in stocks brought about by King Donnie's proclamation last week that military action would not continue in Iran and a deal on the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Trumpski kept hyping the Iran War talk on Monday saying the strait may open tomorrow. That did not happen and then Secretary Bessent proclaimed more happy talk so stocks hit the afterburners with a rocket launch rally, then sideways chop the last 3 days as traders await more happy talk. What next?

The Iran War, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, is driving oil prices that are driving stock prices so it is all a crap-shoot. It depends on what side of the bed King Donnie rises on today and tomorrow.

The turn to the long side may be imminent with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. If the SPX rallies 5 or 6 points, to push above 7763, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, the bulls need is a rise of +6 in the futures that will begin trading at 6 PM EST. As usual, a gap-up big move will not be helpful for the bulls; it would be much better if price slowly progressed higher.

Bears must push back and prevent SPX 7763 with all their might, otherwise they will fold like your cheap Men's Warehouse suit. At the same time, bears need weaker chips and commodities, and a higher VIX.

Interestingly, even if the bulls gain control the only way another leg up occurs with stocks is if utilities rally. Watch utes very closely this week they will tell you a lot. UTIL begins the week at 1099 and bulls need price above 1124.50 to receive energy for another solid move higher in the stock market. Bulls will not make much headway higher, if any, if they cannot push utilities higher.

Bulls win with the SPX above 7763 and then drive stocks higher with stronger utes. Bears will continue to hold the bulls at bay if they prevent SPX 7763 and drive semiconductors and commodities lower and volatility higher. It should be another interesting week. We need Blues Traveler to join us as we travel these choppy waters. 

8/16/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/14/26; 10:00 AM EST =
8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains short
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 10:06 AM EST = +36; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains short
8/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +33
8/5/26; 3:59 PM EST = +6; signal line is +34
8/5/26; 12:52 PM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/5/26; 11:55 AM EST = +36; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market rocket launches to the upside to all-time record highs. It is bazaar. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7758.21 and new all-time closing high at 7736.52 on 8/4/26 on Donnie hype.

In 18 years, the model has never displayed this type of behavior. The rally is purely news-driven with King Donnie Chump halting further military action in Iran on the weekend. Trumpski said the Strait of Hormuz may open yesterday. Then Bessent tag-teamed Trump promising an agreement by today. Oil plummets and stocks explode to the upside on the Iran War hype. Overnight, Trump says an agreement on the strait may occur today but Iran plays dumb and the Red Sea is now a problem. Iran is talking to Oman to make an agreement on the strait. What a mess. But the stock market is in party mode. If there was ever a time where everyone is partying with zero fear, it is now.

Utilities remain weak that is surprising since the rally would have been expected to lift all boats but it did not. Commodities weakened, mainly due to oil prices dropping, adding further bearishness to the stock market but the bulls managed to push chips high enough to help keep the bull rally going.

The coming days will tell if the model strayed off the reservation. Something has to give. The quant will have to capitulate and go long, or stocks will reverse to the downside. It likely completely depends on the so-called deal over the Strait of Hormuz that may be detailed today.  Welcome to the Twilight Zone.

The Iran War news is obviously the market driver along with utes, commodities and chips. The lines in the sand are UTIL 1124.50, GTX 5227 and SOX 12040. Utes and commodities create negativity while chips create positivity for stocks. The metrics do not matter when a big orange head is bloviating every 10 minutes to manipulate oil prices.

If UTIL or GTX turn bullish, either one will do, consider the imminent turn to the long side in play, and if the SPX moves above 7758, Keybot the Quant may flip long. The bears need to pull SOX below 12040 to maintain base negativity but, as highlighted above, the stock market is in Iran War hype mode and will live or die on the deal that King Donnie makes this week. It is weird stuff.

8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/4/26; 11:16 AM EST = +22; signal line is +35
8/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +35
8/3/26; 10:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +36
8/3/26; 10:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market continues chopping along. Utilities gave up the ghost late Friday. King Donnie balked at continuing the strikes against Iran claiming that a new round of negotiations will begin today with the radical Islamist terrorists. Oil drops and futures rise. S&P futures are up +40 points.

Utes, vol and chips are impacting stock market direction. UTIL 1155, UTIL 1124, SOX 12.08K and VIX 19.17 are the lines in the sand. The VIX is at 15.98, a 15 handle, liking the bull camp. The chips are negative in the premarket so semi's like the bear camp.

UTIL begins the week at 1121 below both the 1124 and 1155 forecasting doom and gloom ahead. It sure does not look like that with futures happy, however, that occurs due to the King Donnie pump.

Bulls need UTIL above 1124 to place the quant in position to go long. Consider the imminent turn to the long side on tap if UTIL rises back above 1124. This is uber important to the stock market right now. Bad things will happen if utilities remain bearish.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning. Good morning Vietnam. Fortunate Son.

8/9/26; 7:00 PM EST =
8/7/26; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 3:59 PM EST = +20; signal line is +36
7/31/26; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short
7/30/26; 7:37 AM EST = +36; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains short