STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear camp yesterday morning at the opening bell at SPX 7618 as stocks fell apart. Copper and utilities are running the show. Copper failed out of the gate causing the robot to flip short and one minute later it already wanted to flip long again. The market action is a circus nowadays. Indexes are going off in all directions and things that should be correlated are not.

The CPER 39.53 and UTIL 1112.80 lines in the sand will tell you the story on Monday. A closer look can be given tomorrow once the Sunday and EOM prints. November trading starts on Monday. Both metrics are creating negativity and selling pressure for equities but both can easily revert back to the bull camp. It is all a coin-flip.

On the last trade that ran for 8 trading days, the quant program loses a couple percent but the actual trading gains +4.7% because of small caps bucking the trend and rallying for 9 days until yesterday. As mentioned above, indexes are all over the map. Tech stocks collapsed yesterday. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up +11%, the quant program is down -9% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down -8%. The actual trading continues underperforming the benchmark by 19 percentage points. Keybot the Quant exited UWM and entered QID. Happy Halloween. The party heats up when the band plays Goo Goo Muck.

11/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/26; 3:38 PM EST = -10; signal line is -8
10/30/26; 11:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains short
10/30/26; 10:41 AM EST = -10; signal line is -9
10/30/26; 9:37 AM EST = +6; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
10/30/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10; go short 7618 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +11.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -9.0%)(Actual results this trade = +4.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -7.6%)
10/29/26; 10:39 AM EST = +6; signal line is -10
10/29/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -10
10/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10
10/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/21/26; 9:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/20/26; 11:46 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10
10/20/26; 11:34 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/20/26; 10:29 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10; go long 7740 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +13.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -7.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the never-ending whipsaw slop continues slapping and tossing the bulls and bears around like ragdolls. Today was more baby games with Dr Copper falling faint again but Nurse Goodbody ran up and shot morphine into his butt and he is back to dancing a jig of joy.

The battle remains banks and copper in the bull camp keeping stocks elevated versus volatility and utilities in the bear camp creating negativity in the stock market. One of the four metrics will flinch and that tells you the direction forward.

The lines in the sand are XLF 55.70, CPER 39.59, VIX 16.21, and UTIL 1113. Copper and utilities are near their lines in the sand.

If UTIL pops above 1113, the bulls will drive equities strongly higher and the afterburners will be firing if the VIX falls below 16.21. Note that today the VIX came down to test this line in the sand but bounced back to 17.20. Bulls must have lower volatility or their control of the stock market is meaningless (stocks will fail going forward).

If CPER drops below 39.59, like today, the quant will be in position to flip short so consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 7691, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Watch copper closely.

Tomorrow is the last day of October trading and the month of November begins on Monday. Bulls win with stronger utilities while bears win with weaker copper.

The stock market travels along the Middle of the Road inches away from the ditch. Great guitar work. Chrissie is fantastic a sweet, but tough, voice. The Learning to Crawl album had a fistful of hit songs a bigtime rock 'n roll record. Back then it was all about enjoying music and each other's company and the smartphone garbage did not exist.

11/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/26; 10:39 AM EST = +6; signal line is -10
10/29/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as copper turns bullish. Every time that Doctor Copper is lying on the gurney asking for Last Rights, a doctor shoots him up with morphine so he jumps off the sick bed and dances a jig of joy. The bulls are firmly in charge with the algo number 16 points above the signal line after the prescheduled number prints this week.

It just got harder for the bears since they have to flip a parameter bearish, and maybe two, or at least flip one bearish and let it jog above and below the line in the sand a time or two to place the quant in the position to go short.

Wednesday, tomorrow, is Fed rate decision day. Stocks are usually higher leading into a Fed meeting, like now, and also higher through the full moon, so the bulls have the wind at their backs to begin the new week of trading. Will Wizard Warsh provide a trick or a treat? There are also important AI earnings reports on tap that will move markets.

Hump day is a dual cage match with banks and copper against vol and utes. XLF 55.60, CPER 39.59, VIX 16.23 and UTIL 1113 tell the stock market story ahead. Banks and copper are in the bull camp pumping stocks higher. Volatility and utilities are in the bear camp creating negativity.

Bulls need VIX below 16.23 and/or UTIL above 1113. It is meaningless that bulls are rallying the stock market unless the VIX loses 16.23. If the bulls cannot push VIX below 16.23, US stocks will fold like your cheap suit. A lower VIX below 16.23 gives its blessing to the bulls to take stocks way higher. Bulls will also receive upside strength for equities if UTIL moves above 1113. Utes have not been in play for a few weeks, until now.

Bears need to pull XLF below 55.60 and/or CPER below 39.59. The banks are a much easier target for bears but, as stated above, price will likely need to jog above and below 55.60 a couple of times to set-up the robot to try and go short. If XLF or CPER turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play for Keybot the Quant. The SPX likely needs to lose 7677 for the quant to flip short.

EOM is Friday for trading in October and November trading begins on Monday. Halloween is Saturday so hopefully all of you will get a lot of candy. Clocks also fall back one hour this weekend.

Pittsburgh musician and singer Donnie Iris croaks at 83. He had an interesting career with a #1 hit decades ago with The Jaggerz called The Rapper. Yinz may recognize other hits like the song Ah! Leah! Donnie was doing great rock 'n roll screams before anybody knew what they were. He was music royalty in Da Burgh. RIP King Cool and in Heaven, don't forget to Play that Funky Music white boy. He had that hit with Wild Cherry. He was singing at an event last month. Donnie sang all the way until bladder cancer finally cut him down.

11/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -10
10/27/26; 9:36 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10
10/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bullish but is champing at the bit to go short since Wednesday morning. The bulls and bears battle through the daily erratic sideways slop. The robot wants to flip short because the algo number is 3 points below the signal line, but the internal parmeters have not fully latched to permit the move.

If the SPX drops below 7612, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX begins the week at 7624 so you can check to see if there are 12 negative points in the S&P futures this evening.

The stock market is a fight between banks and retail stocks versus copper, utilities, and volatility. Utes have been a bad omen for stocks but the pullback is in individual names rather than at the index level. Utilities are important again.

Bears need the SPX below 7612 to flip the model short. XLF below 55.56 and/or XRT below 85.55 will create stock market carnage.

Bulls need CPER above 39.63, UTIL above 1113, and/or VIX below 16.23. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will place the bulls firmly back in the drivers seat and any upside in stocks can be gauged by these three metrics.

Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning and the trading month ends on Friday. Copper and banks are important and it just so happens that copper is key for the buildout of the AI era and data centers and banks are key because they are providing the funding, or at least the funding so far. It's In the Stars, it's our destiny. The Stones continue churning out quality rock 'n roll.

11/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/21/26; 9:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/20/26; 11:46 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 7740. The banks and copper were pumped higher to create lift in the stock market. Copper faltered but closed the session in the bull camp.

The choppy whipsaw slop continues the nemesis of algorithms. The meat-grinder continues today with banks copper and volatility running the show. XLF 55.52, CPER 39.69 and VIX 16.13 are the lines in the sand and can easily flip camps in a heartbeat. Banks and copper are creating bullishness while volatility creates bearishness.

The VIX is trading at 17.47 over a stick higher than the line in the sand creating negativity. Overall, going forward, the bulls have buptkis if they cannot push the VIX below 16.13. This would have to happen to produce any sustainable upside rally.

CPER is trading at 39.30 in the premarket that would be a failure after the opening bell. If CPER loses 39.69, and the SPX sells off dropping below 7668, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side. S&P futures are up marginally in the early going.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program was flat and the actual trading gained almost +3%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is up +13%, the quant program is down -7% and the actual trading is down -12%. Keybot the Quant exits QID and enters UWM. Thriller is a Halloween song.

10/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/26; 11:46 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10
10/20/26; 11:34 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
10/20/26; 10:29 AM EST = +3; signal line is -10; go long 7740 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +13.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -7.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.3%)
10/20/26; 10:21 AM EST = +3; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
10/20/26; 9:44 AM EST = -13; signal line is -12
10/20/26; 9:00 AM EST = -29; signal line is -12
10/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is -12
10/16/26; 12:34 PM EST = -29; signal line is -11
10/16/26; 11:27 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10
10/16/26; 11:16 AM EST = +1; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 10:29 AM EST = +17; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 10:09 AM EST = +1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 3:21 AM EST = -29; signal line is -13
10/15/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -13
10/14/26; 2:55 PM EST = -45; signal line is -13
10/14/26; 12:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -11
10/14/26; 11:44 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11; go short 7732 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -7.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -15.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after a crazy Friday morning. The choppy pig slop continues. Copper, volatility and the banks are running the show as evidenced by the Friday circus. With the bigtime bullishness out of the gate on Friday morning, you would think the quant would flip long but it did not mainly because the SPX was negative.

As the morning played out, copper failed, then volatility spiked placing the bears back on an even keel. At munch time, the banks threw in the towel guaranteeing a bad day on Wall and Broad.

The bears are leading the circus parade with the algo number 17 points below the signal line. Retail stocks ran higher last week led by Walmart and its army of ignorant incompetent shelf-stockers that will run you over with one of those big awkward carts. Bears need XRT below 85.00 to produce more downside negativity for stocks. NYA below 23425 will also create significant negativity and equity carnage but price remains buoyant at 24K.

Bulls need to do what they did out of the gate on Friday. That starts with sending the VIX below 16.17 preferably in the early hours US East Coast time to indicate that up is the path ahead for stocks. Bulls are screwed if the VIX remains above 16.17.

Bulls need CPER above 39.75 and XLF above 55.52. Check out the price of XLF. Yes, it is 55.52. The banks ended the week smack-dab on top of the bull/bear line in the sand called out by the robot. Obviously, as banks go, so goes the stock market.

Bulls are trying to pump utilities higher it is really a flight to perceived safety the last few days. UTIL is at 1082 and needs to move above 1114 to provide bull strength for the stock market.

The stage is set. Bears need weaker retail stocks so check Walmart to see what it is doing. Bulls need lower volatility and stronger copper and banks. Bulls likely need for 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish to be able to flip the model long, or, one parameter may turn bullish but it will need to jog above and below its line in the sand a couple times before it would be in position to set the quant up to go long.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday before the opening bell and the other on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Saturday and Sunday are good days to hang out in the blues clubs. Everybody's Jugglin'. The blues masters. Some great harp players. If you cannot feel a groove from that you're dead inside. Get up and move around.

10/25/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/23/26; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/26; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/26; 7:00 PM EST = -29; signal line is -12
10/16/26; 12:34 PM EST = -29; signal line is -11
10/16/26; 11:27 AM EST = -13; signal line is -10
10/16/26; 11:16 AM EST = +1; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 10:29 AM EST = +17; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 10:09 AM EST = +1; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
10/16/26; 3:21 AM EST = -15; signal line is -13
10/15/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market prints a relief rally today. The fix was in for retail stocks at the end of the prior session when they goosed XRT, and this morning they shot it into the stratosphere. All the Wall Street crooks were on board. Don't you love corrupt crony capitalism filth? It's fun.

With retail stocks back into the bull camp with the orgy rally, the algo number is now only 16 points below the signal line. Banks, copper and volatility will dictate the path ahead.

The lines in the sand are XLF 55.54, CPER 39.75 and VIX 16.17. All 3 are in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. Any of the three could easily flip bullish tomorrow creating further legs higher for the relief rally. If XLF or CPER regain their lines in the sand, either one would do, and if the SPX is above 7754 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Interestingly, lower volatility would likely not flip the model long. However, if vol is the parameter that is seeing action, look for it to jog above and below the VIX 16.17. If this behavior occurs, it is like jogging the quant to where lower volatility will be able to flip the robot long, if the SPX is above 7754 and moving higher. Is that clear as mud?

You can check copper and volatility futures overnight to see what the path ahead looks like. Check XLF in the premarket. If all 3 remain in the bear camp, the bears will likely begin extracting bull flesh again. Tomorrow is National Boss Day. Could anyone think up a more asinine day? You do not owe your boss anything except an honest day's work. Screw your boss. Tell them Keybot said so. Instead, stay home today and serenade your Country Girl. Tell her she makes sunshine from the rain. The 60's, 70's and into the early 80's were the best times. What fun it was.

10/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/15/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -13
10/14/26; 2:55 PM EST = -45; signal line is -13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 7732. Retail stocks, volatility and copper all jump into the bear camp creating stock market negativity. It was surprising to see copper give up the ghost since it has been strong and serves as a proxy for AI. The bears are in charge going forward with the algo number 32 points below the signal line.  Any other time that would be the bears cruising but in these markets it is best to leave the caution flag out.

The stock market selling will continue unless CPER rises above 39.75 (watch the copper futures overnight), VIX drops below 16.18 (check the VIX in the early morning East Coast time), and/or XRT moves above 84.79. The metrics are dancing on the head of a pin. 

VIX was forced lower during the last hour of trading today to provide lift to stocks. XRT was goosed bigtime into the closing bell. Walmart must have had a blue-light special on Halloween candy. Watch XRT closely since it is only pennies from turning bullish and this would likely stop the bear slide in the stock market.

Bears need to keep the three parameters above negative while also pulling the NYA index lower. If NYA loses 23415, all hope will be lost for the stock market and the future holds nothing but pain and misery.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program is flat and the actual trading gains a couple percent. For the year, with only 2-1/2 months remaining, the benchmark SPX is up +13% while the quant program is down -7% and the actual trading is down -15% underperforming the benchmark by 28 percentage points. Keybot the Quant exits DDM and enters QID.

Retail stocks, copper and volatility are the three key drivers of stock market direction currently. Expect anything in these choppy sloppy markets. The drama continues with both sides trying to read each other's Poker Face.

10/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/26; 2:55 PM EST = -45; signal line is -13
10/14/26; 12:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -11
10/14/26; 11:44 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11; go short 7732 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -7.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -15.0%)
10/13/26; 9:59 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains long
10/13/26; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/12/26; 12:18 PM EST = -15; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains long
10/12/26; 12:09 PM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/12/26; 10:10 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains long
10/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/8/26; 11:16 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains long
10/5/26; 12:36 PM EST = +1; signal line is -11; go long 7766 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -16.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line that is not saying much. Markets came alive to end the week and the bears were puffing their chests, even managing to send the VIX above 16 for a few minutes, only to fold like a cheap suit.

There are 7 major metrics impacting the stock market now but taking the top 4, this week will be a tag-team cage match between copper and chips, creating bullishness, versus retail stocks and banks that are creating bearishness.

Bulls need XRT above 84.86 and/or XLF above 55.60. There will likely be new record highs for the SPX if either one of the metrics turn bullish. It will be off to the races higher for the stock market if both turn bullish.

Utilities rallied last week but remain very negative and ominous. Utes are wearing black robes warning that the end is nigh. They need to tell that to the stock market that runs higher especially on Donnie Chump's rosy happy talk.

Bears need CPER below 39.65 and/or SOX below 12290. If either one turns negative, and the SPX drops below 7779, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Watch copper futures to see if they are giving up -1.6% or more, or, if they are rallying. Semiconductors experience wild moves and the bears need a -2.2% loss in the SOX so watch the chips, and XSD, and SMH, in the premarket.

The stage is set. Bulls and bears play hot potato all year long. The stock market keeps juking and jiving setting up bull and bear traps snaring traders. The AI hype is the whole ball of wax. Oil, fuel and food prices also impact markets.

Who will flinch first and broadcast the direction forward for stocks; XRT, XLF, CPER or SOX?  The sideways slop continues. History Repeats Itself by American Aquarium. BJ Barham is the frontman. The opening riff of that tune is the same as a Pixies song.

10/18/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/26; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/9/26; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/9/26; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/8/26; 11:16 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains long
10/5/26; 12:36 PM EST = +1; signal line is -11; go long 7766 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -16.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 7766 the sideways choppy slop is relentless. The early battle yesterday for volatility ends in the bull's favor and then copper runs higher sealing the deal for upside fun. The sideways slop chews up bulls and bears alike. Oil remains key and prices relaxing downwards provides lift for equities.

Nothing's changed. Copper, volatility, and the NYA index remain the key battlegrounds. All 3 are bullish causing the quant to flip to the long side. Do not be surprised if the robot flips short again due to the ongoing sideways pig slop.

The bulls are cruising and cracks will not form in the stock market until CPER loses 39.63, VIX moves above 16.24, and/or NYA drops below 23341. The VIX tells you the path ahead. A VIX under 16.24 will take the bulls into the holidays. A VIX above 16.24 will begin inflicting pain and misery on stocks.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program and actual trading lose another couple percent. Humorously, the algo is doing a better job of going in the wrong direction. It is the nature of choppy sideways markets. For the year, now in Q4, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +13%. The quant program is down -7% and the actual trading is off -17% on the year thus far underperforming the benchmark by 30 percentage-points. This wide spread has never occurred in the 18-year history of the algorithm; not even close. Interesting stuff. It makes you wonder what will happen next. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered DDM (10/5).

The VIX is trading at 15.47 with the bulls puffing their chests out wanting to take stocks higher. Copper needs to drop -0.6% to turn CPER bearish but copper futures are up +0.4% currently. Simply watch the three metrics above, especially copper and volatility that are running the show right now. The bulls do not want to let go. Don't Let Go by Johnny Blue Skies and the Dark Clouds. Sturgill has one helluva voice. Great sax and slide solos.

10/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/9/26; 10:00 AM EST =
10/5/26; 12:36 PM EST = +1; signal line is -11; go long 7766 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -6.9%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -16.8%)
10/5/26; 9:36 AM EST = +1; signal line is -11
10/5/26; 7:15 AM EST = -15; signal line is -11
10/5/26; 5:54 AM EST = -29; signal line is -10
10/5/26; 4:08 AM EST = -15; signal line is -9
10/5/26; 3:25 AM EST = -29; signal line is -9
10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -8
10/2/26; 10:12 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
10/2/26; 9:52 AM EST = +1; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
10/2/26; 3:21 AM EST = -15; signal line is -6
10/1/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -6
10/1/26; 7:28 AM EST = -15; signal line is -5
10/1/26; 6:53 AM EST = +1; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -13; signal line is -4
9/30/26; 3:59 PM EST = -13; signal line is -4; go short 7653 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +11.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -5.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -14.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short after Friday jobs day. The Fed held its jackboot on the throat of volatility out of the gate in the early hours to boost stocks. Interestingly, copper remains soggy preventing the bulls from taking the stock market ball away.

To start the week, it is copper versus volatility and the NYA index. Bears need VIX above 16.26 and NYA below 23341 to guarantee downside trouble ahead and weak semiconductors will crush stocks.

The bulls need CPER above 39.66 with price only pennies below. You can check how volatility trades in the early hours but in general, as copper goes so goes stocks. If copper turns bullish, and the SPX runs above 7755, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. Copper and volatility are running the show right now and the NYA 23341 level represents where very bad things will start to happen to stocks. Utilities remain deeply in the bear camp, an ominous warning going forward, but stocks remain resilient. The Laurel Lowlifes.

10/11/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/9/26; 10:00 AM EST =
10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST = -15; signal line is -8
10/2/26; 10:12 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
10/2/26; 9:52 AM EST = +1; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST = -15; signal line is -7
10/2/26; 3:21 AM EST = -15; signal line is -6
10/1/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 7653 at the end of the Wednesday session. The algo number is 23 points below the signal line. Copper and volatility failed into the bear camp creating the negativity. Stocks should have sold off but did not so traders must be waiting for the US Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST. Despite the recovery move intraday in the S&P 500, Doctor Copper and Uncle Vix remain sick.

The CPER line in the sand for copper is 39.66 and price is only 15 cents away at 39.51 creating bearishness. Obviously, this can change with a blink of an eye.

The VIX line in the sand for volatility is 16.26 and price is only 13 cents away at 16.39 creating bearishness. Obviously, this can change on a dime.

There is a third metric at play the NYA index. It has been sneaking around in the bushes but decided to show its ugly face today. NYA 23341 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 23527 on the bull side helping to maintain stock market buoyancy today. The NYA 23341 is a critical level for the US stock market since it represents a transition from a long-term cyclical bull market to a long-term cyclical bear market.

NYA collapsed today down to 23333 piercing the critical 23341 support. The bears tried to stab down through at 10 AM EST, then 11 AM then 11:30 AM, and then stocks recovered with the bears folding like a cheap suit. This action is why bears could not achieve more downside today.

There will probably be more chop suey ahead. Friday is the jobs report and a battle between the bearish copper and volatility against the bullish NYA two against one. Bears need NYA below 23431 and it is over for the stock market that will begin falling in earnest.

Bulls need both CPER above 39.66 and VIX below 16.26 to place the quant in position to go long. If these two metrics turn bullish, and the SPX pops above 7685, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Markets are erratic and unstable so anything can happen.

On the last trade that ran for 9 days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. The choppy slop price action is brutal. For the year, the benchmark SPX is cruising along up +12% while the quant program is down -5% and the actual trading down -14% on the year underperforming the benchmark by 26 percentage-points not a shining year for Keybot. Can it redeem itself in 3 months? The robot exited SSO and entered SDS.

Watch copper, volatility and the NYA index. Who will be the Better Man? Eddie Vedder brings the house down with one of the best performances ever. He has trouble with a guitar string and keeps on going. Spectacular talent. Bigtime. It's fun that he is playing with the house band. The drama tomorrow begins at 8:30 AM EST.

10/4/26; 7:00 PM EST =
10/2/26; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/26; 9:36 AM EST = -29; signal line is -6
10/1/26; 7:28 AM EST = -15; signal line is -5
10/1/26; 6:53 AM EST = +1; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
9/30/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -13; signal line is -4
9/30/26; 3:59 PM EST = -13; signal line is -4; go short 7653 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +11.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -5.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2026 = -14.4%)
9/29/26; 1:30 PM EST = +1; signal line is -5
9/29/26; 1:19 PM EST = -15; signal line is -6 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 1:02 PM EST = -29; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:57 PM EST = -13; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 12:41 PM EST = +1; signal line is -8
9/29/26; 12:01 PM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:39 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/29/26; 10:29 AM EST = -13; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/29/26; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is -9
9/28/26; 12:02 PM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/28/26; 10:51 AM EST = -10; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 7:29 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/28/26; 5:10 AM EST = -10; signal line is -13
9/27/26; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/25/26; 10:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:21 PM EST = +4; signal line is -12
9/24/26; 12:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:58 AM EST = +4; signal line is -11
9/24/26; 10:35 AM EST = -10; signal line is -10 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 8:13 AM EST = +4; signal line is -10
9/24/26; 7:44 AM EST = -10; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains long
9/24/26; 7:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is -8
9/24/26; 4:17 AM EST = -10; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains long
9/21/26; 11:15 AM EST = +4; signal line is -7; go long 7728 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -4.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.4%)(Actual results this trade = -8.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -12.6%)