Tuesday, November 7, 2017

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot remains on the long side with the algo pegged at the maximum +100 level. The last move from short to long was about a week and one-half ago. Volatility remains the key parameter impacting market direction. VIX 10.62 is the bull-bear line in the sand. Bulls are on easy street below while above will usher in serious market selling.

The +100 prints are epic and historic. The initial +100 prints occurred about 11 months ago. It is amazing that almost a year later the algo keeps drifting back up to +100 without any serious pull back in the stock market occurring. You would think a rolling stock market top would take place over a 3 to 6 month period, maybe more, however, the US stock market is joyous for one year straight. It is truly historic and something that many of us may never see again in our lifetimes once the party ends. The +95 number on the signal line is al;so at a record high. It is astounding.

On the last trade, the algo program loses -0.4% and the actual trading -1.4%. Unfortunately, the PSQ ETF was short tech stocks which rallied big. Keybot exited PSQ and entered DIA. The S&P 500 is up a bigtime +15.1% this year. The power of the central bankers is amazing.

Lower copper and retail stocks will help the market bears but the key is volatility currently. Bears need VIX above 10.62 or they got nothing. An imminent turn to the downside will be in play if VIX moves above 10.62. World stock indexes continue printing record highs. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

11/12/17; 7:00 PM EST =
11/10/17; 10:00 AM EST =
11/5/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +95
11/3/17; 9:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +95
10/31/17; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +100; signal line is +94
10/31/17; 10:00 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:36 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/30/17; 12:24 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/27/17; 11:09 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94; go long 2576; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +15.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual results for 2017 = +1.6%)
10/27/17; 10:07 AM EST = +100; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains short
10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94
10/25/17; 9:49 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94; go short 2565; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.0%)

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