Thursday, October 26, 2017

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot flips back to the short side on Wednesday at SPX 2565. The algorithm has not printed any numbers yet today (Thursday). The sideways choppy slop continues. Do not be surprised if Keybot flips back to the long side again in these crazy, erratic and unstable markets.

The key metric controlling stock market direction currently is VIX 10.72. VIX is at 11.00 so the bears are in control. It does not matter if stocks are going up today. If the VIX remains above 10.72, the stock market will roll back over to the downside.

Market bulls win big if the VIX falls below 10.72. This would send equities to new record highs. Watch the VIX 10.72 bull-bear line in the sand very closely the rest of the week.

(Another signal line you can watch, although it is not programmmed into Keybot, is the VIX 200-day MA now at 11.22; this is a key short-term market signal where bulls win below 11.22 and bears win big if the VIX moves above 11.22).

On the last trade, the Keybot algo program lost -0.3% and the actual trading logs a marginal -0.2% loss. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ. The benchmark S&P 500 index, SPX, is up +14.6% this year. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.


VIX 10.72 tells you if the bulls or bears win going forward. If it is bearish, the VIX 11.22 tells you if it will be market carnage, or not.

10/29/17; 7:00 PM EST =
10/27/17; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/17; 9:49 AM EST = +86; signal line is +94; go short 2565; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.0%)
10/24/17; 2:40 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 2:20 PM EST = +100; signal line is +94
10/24/17; 2:07 PM EST = +86; signal line is +94 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 1:43 PM EST = +100; signal line is +93
10/24/17; 9:48 AM EST = +86; signal line is +93 but algorithm remains long
10/24/17; 7:59 AM EST = +100; signal line is +92
10/23/17; 3:42 PM EST = +86; signal line is +92 but algorithm remains long
10/22/17; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +91
10/20/17; 12:23 PM EST = +100; signal line is +90; go long 2572; (Benchmark SPX for 2017 = +14.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2017 = +2.4%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2017 = +3.2%)

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