Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side after the opening bell at SPX 5488 as was expected but the damage has been done. The bears are in control with the algo number 32 points below the signal line. King Donnie started the Trump Trade and Tariff War today calling it a liberation day because you are liberated from your money.
Banks, the NYA index and commodities took the pipe at the opening bell. Commodities had remained buoyant for many weeks supporting the bull case but that support has crumbled. Watch the GTX 3728 bull/bear line in the sand with price starting tomorrow at 3714. Bulls need GTX above 3728 to stabilize the stock market. If price remains below, the beatings will continue.
Copper is back in play for the first time in a long time. Bears need CPER below 29.65 and another ugly leg lower will occur for stocks. This represents about a -1.4% drop in copper futures so you can watch that overnight.
Tomorrow is the US Jobs Report so it will create drama. The robot is tracking commodities and copper with top interest. It is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit. Bulls win with GTX above 3728. Bears win with CPER below 29.65. If the battle continues, stocks will stutter sideways until the victor raises his fist.
On the last trade that only ran for a few hours, the algo program loses -3% and the actual trading loses -5%. The drop would have been worse if Keybot would have been in a different index ETF but the Dow was the least dirty shirt in the laundry today (lucky it was in the que). For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is getting slapped silly down almost -7% in Q1. The quant program is up +1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the robot is up about +6% taking it on the chin overnight because of the orange head's protectionism games but still outperforming the SPX benchmark by 13 percentage-points. Keybot exited DDM and entered SH dropping down into the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer was triggered. The robot will remain in the single ETF's for 30 days since it senses choppy whipsaw slop ahead.
4/6/25;
7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25;
9:00 AM EST =
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488
(Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo
for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 =
+6.4%)
4/2/25; 11:27 AM EST = -3; signal line is -13; go long 5656;
(Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo
for 2025 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 =
+11.5%)
