STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to flip long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. Bulls need to keep SOX above 7770 and push the SPX above 6637 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That equates to a 31-point gain for the SPX tomorrow so watch the S&P futures overnight to see if it is on the docket.

The bears need to pull SOX below 7770 to create further market pain. Bears need NYA below 21665 and/or SPX 6506 to open the gates to Hell. These two metrics are bigtime longer term parameters so if they fail, or even one of them, it is serious business and if long the stock market, you will need to start panicking.

Bulls win with SPX above 6637. Bears win with SOX below 7770 (weaker chips). It's a cage match. Two will enter but only one will exit and stocks will go in that direction. Bob Dylan and Donovan hanging out

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/26; 1:33 PM EST = +6; signal line is -0 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 1:12 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the odd stock market action continues. The robot is active today and champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line, but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Domo arigato, Mr Roboto. My brain IBM.

The bulls need the SPX above 6705 to flip Keybot the Quant to the long side, unless something wildly bullish happens to make it occur faster. 

The bears continue to run the show even though the model wants to flip long. The battle today is chips. Watch SOX 7767.80 as the key bull/bear line in the sand. As chips go, so goes the stock market. If SOX remains above 7768 moving higher, so will stocks. If SOX collapses below 7768, it is time for equities to slide down the rabbit hole.

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/19/26; 12:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is -1 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 12:26 PM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/19/26; 12:07 PM EST = +6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 11:25 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/19/26; 11:17 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = -10; signal line is -4
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but wants to flip long. The whipsaw coin-flip stock market continues all year long. Stocks did not want to make any big moves ahead of the big Fed decision tomorrow when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells traders how to trade.

Stocks are bullish about 80% of the time going into a Fed decision so traders jumped the gun and were front-running this expectation out of the gate on Monday (yesterday). Interestingly, the Fed meeting sits on the peak of the new moon for the month at 9:23 PM EST tomorrow. Stocks are typically bearish about two-thirds of the time moving through the new moon so that will be interesting to watch as Powell performs his financial tap dance.

The last few days have not changed. Chips and copper are running the show. The algorithm is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 9 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. If the SPX, starting at 6716, rallies tomorrow above 6754, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is +38 SPX points so you can watch the futures overnight. It may seem like a lot but the indexes are making moves far bigger and in only the time it takes to grab a cup of coffee or tea. The bulls have it on a platter if they want it.

The semiconductor and copper lines in the sand are SOX 7772 and CPER 35.50, respectively. SOX price is above creating bullishness in the stock market. Mister Copper is back to lying on the gurney and is below the line in the sand creating stock market bearishness. This is why you see the market indecision. The weakness today occurred when SOX dropped to test the line in the sand and then stocks rallied as chips ran higher into the close.

Bulls win big and will likely flip the quant long if the SPX moves above 6754. Bears will prove they can still take stocks far lower if they pull SOX below 7772. If the semiconductors weaken tomorrow, the stock market will probably fall apart to the downside.

Watch chips and copper. And of course pretty Venus was her name. She's got it. It is interesting that the Gen Z's and Gen Alpha's are updating a lot of the 60's and 70's culture and words for themselves. Good on them. They are digging the vibe. Vibe and vibration is from decades ago and used again now. Good Vibrations. Before long, young folks will be saying dig again.

3/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 11:02 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:48 AM EST = +22; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/16/26; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains short
3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST = -10; signal line is -2
3/12/26; 2:40 PM EST = -10; signal line is -1
3/12/26; 9:47 AM EST = +6; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short, but wants to go long, as the market turmoil continues. It is all about semiconductors and copper. Bulls came to play on Monday with their chests puffed out but their hopes deflated on Tuesday unable to flip the model long despite the algo number 10 points above the signal line.  The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. Today will be interesting with CPI data on deck in three hours.

CPER 35.68 and SOX 7801 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. Both are above creating stock market bullishness but the bulls are unable to capitalize on the situation, at least not yet.

Copper futures need to drop about a percent to send CPER to the bear camp, and keep the bears in business, and copper is down -1.6% so it looks like the bears want to maintain control of the stock market. S&P futures were positive overnight but are now down -15 points as copper leaks lower.

If bulls send the SPX above 6845 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long but this is a tall ask since the SPX begins at 6781. At the same time, copper is down more than -1% so the bears want to flex their muscles and maintain their grip on the market. In the 1960's, kids in southwestern Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh area, would watch the Ricki & Copper television show; Ricki Wertz and her friendly dog, Copper. 

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 10 points above the signal line. Tomorrow will be a big day. Stocks were down big until King Donnie said the Iran War was near completion. Of course it is a bloviation but the markets did not care. Oil drops like a rock and equities explode higher intraday.

Copper and chips create the big rally today. Copper turned positive and that is when the stock market turned around and started to rally to beat The Band. The Weight. Watch the SOX 7796 and CPER 35.66 lines in the sand. Price is above both creating the positivity in equites.

Bears need to turn 1 of the 2 metrics bearish to breathe easier and resume the dark clouds and negativity. Bulls need the SPX to rise above 6810 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long so a rise of +14 points is needed in the S&P futures. Oh my. Donnie Trumpski was talking a minute ago and S&P futures are down -22 points. This year's sideways whipsaw choppy pig slop continues. Bulls need the SPX to move slowly higher and not gap-up at the opening bell. If a gap-up occurs, the robot will likely delay the move for 90 minutes.

Bears win with weaker chips and copper and win big if both turn bearish again. Bulls win with the SPX above 6810. The beat goes on. Ba-la, ba-la, la-la. Monday Monday. Monday, Monday, can't trust that day.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/9/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains short
3/9/26; 3:26 PM EST = -6; signal line is +0
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama intensifies. Oil futures shoot over one hundo. The clock just fell off the wall in the Oval Office. King Donnie's orange head is turning red worrying about the stock market going down the drain due to the Iran War.

S&P futures are down over 100 points responding to the wild spike higher in oil prices, that will create higher gasoline prices, that will negatively impact consumer sentiment and spending.

The bears have the ball with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. Yinz probably noticed the drama with the red metal. As copper goes, so goes the stock market. The quant identifies CPER 35.65 as the bull/bear line in the sand and price closed for the weekend at...... wait for it ......... wait a bit longer for it ........ 35.63, in the bear camp creating negativity, but only two cents away from the bull camp.

If CPER remains below 35.65 and moving lower, the stock market will deteriorate. If CPER moves above 35.65, the stock market selling will stop and stabilize. Thus, watch copper futures overnight. Whatever direction they go, the stock market will likely follow. Bears benefit from weaker copper, weaker utilities, and weaker commodities. Copper is getting bludgeoned down -2.5%.

Bulls need stronger copper and also higher chips, retail stocks, and banks, and lower volatility. A lot can happen overnight, but it appears that the bears want to come and play tomorrow. Let It Drop.

3/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/13/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/12/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +2
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 6805 not much of a surprise considering the non-stop sideways choppy slop this year. The stock market is controlled by chips and copper right now. Both jump back into the bear camp creating the flip back to the short side.

SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The path ahead remains a coin-flip because both metrics can easily flip bullish tomorrow, especially after the important US Monthly Jobs Report. The drop today and market turmoil is a surprise from the context that a flat boring day would have been expected into the jobs numbers in the morning. King Donnie Trumpski (the president) is given the jobs numbers the day before so did the orange head provide a heads-up to his wealthy friends so they could insider trade today?

SOX is at 7822 recovering late-day only 35 points away from the line in the sand so the semiconductors can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. CPER is at the 35.58 only 7 cents from the line in the sand so copper can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. Bulls need 1 of the 2 to turn bullish to stop the market selling and both are likely needed to flip the model long. If both parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6870, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw long. The whipsaw slop this year is getting old.

Watch chips and copper because they tell you the direction of the stock market. 

On the last trade that ran for about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses -1.7%. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down almost a percent. The quant program is down -5% and the actual trading is down -4%. Choppy whipsaw slop is Kryptonite against algorithms. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the single ETF's again due to the whipsaw. The model will remain in single ETF's until early April to reduce risk.

This week, the bears had the ball and choked. The bulls took the ball and they fumbled. The bears have the ball back, running down field, but their shoes are untied and may trip up the furry critters. It is a coin-flip stock market. Jobs report on deck. Everyone's Working for the Weekend. Loverboy. This song would play non-stop on the Friday's during the 1980's into the 90's, even into the 00's. It was the end of the work week anthem that begins with some cowbell. Two days of freedom ahead for the working stiffs.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/5/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 6866 about an hour after the opening bell. It is more choppy, whipsaw slop. The whole year is sideways chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. It is the worst markets for algorithms to operate in and some houses will pull the plug on their models since they get whipsawed too much. The quant does not care which direction the stock market goes in but it is important to at least have a short trend in that direction.

Today reverses yesterday's weakness in chips and copper so stocks bounce. SOX 7860 and CPER 35.65 are the two lines in the sand. Bulls need to keep these on their side and at the same time boost retail stocks and banks, and lower volatility.

Bears need to push SOX below 7860 and/or CPER below 35.65 and they are back in business. Any 1 of the 2 would do and the quant would be back in position to flip short. Thus, the stock market remains a sloppy sideways coin-flip this year and we are already into March.

Semiconductors and copper tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised to see another whipsaw back to the short side.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading are flat or a marginal loss. The benchmark SPX is flatter than a newlywed's souffle this year while the quant program is down about -4% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent in 2026. Keybot the Quant exits DOG and enters SSO now back into the 2x ETF's since the internal whipsaw timer expires. This may not be good because stocks remain whipsaw slop and it is better to be in the single ETF's now to reduce risk, however, Keybot is smarter than humans so we will see what the 1's and 0's say.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)
3/4/26; 10:12 AM EST = +10; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
3/4/26; 9:44 AM EST = -6; signal line is +7
3/4/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
3/3/26; 3:53 PM EST = -22; signal line is +8
3/3/26; 2:42 PM EST = -6; signal line is +9
3/3/26; 2:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is +10
3/3/26; 1:12 PM EST = -6; signal line is +11
3/3/26; 12:06 PM EST = -22; signal line is +12
3/3/26; 11:07 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 2:38 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 11:28 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 10:55 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/26/26; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is +15
2/26/26; 9:40 AM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 2:13 PM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/24/26; 1:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +14
2/23/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6828 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears come to play today. Bears whack chips and copper lower dragging them into the bear camp creating a bloody day on Wall and Broad. The bears are cruising with the algo number 35 points below the signal line.

Bears need to keep semiconductors and copper weak to continue the downside decay in the stock market. Bulls need one of the metrics to turn bullish to stop the selling pressure. The lines in the sand identified by the robot are SOX 7867 and CPER 35.64, respectively. The current prices creating the stock market negativity are below each line in the sand.

If SOX remains below 7867 and CPER below 35.64, the selling in the stock market will continue. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

Bulls need either metric to turn bullish and that will be enough to stop the selling and equities will muddle along sideways. Bulls likely need both metrics to turn bullish to stage a relief rally but even that may not be enough to position the quant to flip long. Let's see what the bears got over the coming days.

Neil Sedaka croaked. That dude wrote a lot of hit songs. Humorously, with that high voice (instead of a soprano he would be called a 'boyish tenor'), he did not reach puberty until he was 30. At high school dances in the 60's and 70's, the boys would muster up courage to ask that pretty classmate to dance, and there would be a Neil Sedaka song playing in the background. Breakin' Up Is Hard to Do.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/3/26; 9:40 AM EST = -22; signal line is +13
3/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +14
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. As everyone talks about chips and utilities, and banks, and of course the new war in the Middle East that King Donnie started, retail stocks are the main parameter impacting stock market direction currently.

Oil will likely pop higher as bombs are dropped on Iran. Futures will trade this evening at 6 PM EST so that will provide the first gauge of the war along with Asia trading overnight. Trumpski will probably provide positive talking points between 3 PM and 6 PM today to try and goose the futures knowing that they will take a hit.

The retail line in the sand is the XRT 87.78 palindrome. As retail stocks go, so goes the stock market. XRT begins the week at 86.98, in the bear camp, creating market negativity. If XRT remains bearish, the stock market will weaken in proportion to the weakness in copper, chips and utes.

If the bulls can push XRT back above 87.78, they are back in biz. This was the struggle on Thursday and each time the bulls achieved this goal, they were punched in the face and fell back below. If the bulls turn XRT positive, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX rallies above 6879 heading higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This scenario may not even be possible due to the new war that King Trump started this weekend but you have to wait and see how the numbers play out overnight.

The bulls also need lower volatility to prove they can send stocks higher especially to the SPX 8K+ targets most on Wall Street are touting for this year, with less than 10 months remaining already. Thus, the Wall Street analysts and strategists believe the SPX will gain over 100 points per month for every month for the remainder of the year. What are they smoking? It must be some really good stuff.

Bulls have no hope at taking stocks higher unless they push XRT above 87.78 and VIX below 17.35. Even if stocks would rally, and retail stocks rally, and the quant flips long, if the VIX does not drop below 17.35 it will not matter. Stocks will reverse and fall apart. Bulls desperately need lower volatility and it will likely spike overnight due to the new war.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. Eve of Destruction. The pounding of the drums, the pride and disgrace.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +14
2/26/26; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15