Wednesday, May 18, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short.  The bull-bear fight continues with retail and utilities supporting the bull case; semi's, commodities, copper and financials all supporting the bear case.

Volatilty dropped back down to favor the bulls in the final half hour of trading yesterday. Continue to monitor VIX 17.65 level.  If below, the market bulls refuse to give up and will continue creating buoyancy in the indexes.  If above, the indexes will be selling off.

For today, all the market bulls need to do is to push the SPX above 1330.42, only a point or two up after the open, and the markets will remain buoyant and float upwards.  If, however, the SPX cannot get above 1330.42 today, then the bears will push the markets lower with a negative bias. Market bears cannot push markets substantially lower unless they would push under the 1319 handle today. If 1319 is lost, then the selling in the indexes will accelerate. Possible pivot point at 2 PM EST today with the FOMC Minutes.

6/5/11; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/11; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/11; 10:00 AM EST =
5/29/11; 7:00 PM EST =
5/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =
5/22/11; 7:00 PM EST =
5/17/11; 3:34 PM EST = +2
5/17/11; 9:00 AM EST = -12
5/16/11; 3:27 PM EST = 0
5/16/11; 2:49 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20
5/16/11; 2:34 PM EST = 0
5/16/11; 12:06 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20
5/16/11; 10:19 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short
5/16/11; 9:42 AM EST = +14; signal line is +20
5/15/11; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short
5/13/11; 1:44 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short
5/13/11; 1:35 PM EST = +14
5/13/11; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm says stay short
5/12/11; 10:09 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm says stay short
5/12/11; 9:51 AM EST = +16; signal line is +22
5/12/11; 9:44 AM EST = 0
5/12/11; 9:30 AM EST = +14
5/11/11; 3:54 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short
5/11/11; 1:13 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23
5/11/11; 12:37 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm says stay short
5/11/11; 12:16 PM EST = +14; signal line is +24; go short 1342; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+6.7%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+3.1%)(Actual this trade via DDM=-1.1%; Actual for 2011=-0.3%)
5/11/11; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line is +25

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