Tuesday, August 2, 2011

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algorithm idled along yesterday without printing any numbers. The semiconductors and financials, although bearish, have positive divergence set ups so they may trigger an upward move in the indexes.  The utilities and copper remain elevated as well helping the bull case.

The SPX closed at 1287.  The key test yesterday was not so much the 200 day MA at 1285 but rather the critical 12 month MA which is currently 1276. A failure of 1276 has dire consequences for the broad markets, but, if the bulls stay above 1276, they remain in the game, especially considering the comments above.

For today, the market bulls need to push the SPX up above 1307.38, if so, the buying will accelerate and a recovery rally will begin with price moving to 1312, 1314 and 1316. The futures are currently red indicating about an eight point drop to fill the 1280-1281 gap.  The market bears will need to get below 1274.73 if they want to see an accelerated selling event.  The key level is that 12 month MA at 1276, thus, the support to watch is 1275-1276, if it is lost, the broad markets are in big trouble fast and lots more selling is on tap. If the 1275-76 holds, then this two day negativity should subside and markets will float back upwards.  A move thru 1277-1306 is sideways slop.

8/21/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/11; 9:00 AM EST =
8/14/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/12/11; 10:00 AM EST =
8/7/11; 7:00 PM EST =
8/5/11; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -26; signal line is +9
7/29/11; 10:00 AM EST = -26
7/28/11; 3:21 PM EST = -26

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