Friday, May 4, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning. XLF is under 15.18 (the numbers continuously change slightly as they are recalculated) and VIX is over 18.14 and the resulting market damage is obvious.  Continue watching these levels today.  The program was flat thru the last trade but the actual trading gave back a percent. As always, watch for a whipsaw, this would manifest if XLF and VIX revert back to the bull camp. The caution flag remains out.

5/6/12; 7:00 PM EST =
5/4/12; 10:05 AM EST = +0; signal line +26
5/4/12; 9:55 AM EST = +14; signal line is +27; go short 1382; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.9%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2012 = +1.6%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2012 = +2.0%)
5/4/12; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line +28
5/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +30; signal line +27
5/2/12; 10:40 AM EST = +46; signal line +27
5/2/12; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line +26
4/30/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +46; signal line +25
4/29/12; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line +24
4/27/12; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line +22
4/26/12; 10:33 AM EST = +46; signal line +21
4/25/12; 11:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +21; go long 1387; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +10.3%)(Keybot this trade = -1.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +2.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.1%; Actual for 2012 = +3.0%)

2 comments:

  1. At the time of your post SPX is 1373. Why did you wait?

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  2. Alex, posting the turns is not a priority, there is no reason for it to be a priority, do not foget this information is a courtesy to you and the other dedicated readership. If the turns can be posted quickly, they will, if not, they will not. Typically they are posted within an hour or two of occurring.

    Be careful what you wish for since, as you see with the daily operation of Keybot if you follow it for a while, next week the SPX may easily travel back above the 1382 entry, while the algo remains short, so that would actually provide a better entry than the algorithm. Then again, the markets may tumble lower in earnest.

    The markets have traveled sideways for the last four months as a rolling top occurs, that is why the algo is meandering along. This is similar to last year then as we went into summer the markets trended lower. Many quants and algorithms remain unplugged in this environment due to the low volatilty and low volume. As volatility increases again, witness today, the machines can rock and roll again.

    If you follow the site, it was plainly stated, to the point of repetition, that if the XLF 15.18 and/or VIX 18.14 levels went bearish, then Keybot would flip short. (the numbers in the morning ahead of trading were 15.20 and 18.20, respectively; Keybot constantly recalculates these trigger levels) Thus, at 10 AM, you knew the story, XLF failed and VIX failed shortly thereafter. Easy as pie.

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