Tuesday, September 4, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long after the market round trip today. The algorithm flipped to the short side at SPX 1399 and then whipsawed back to the long side at SPX 1402.  The sideways channel thru 1399-1413 continues.  By now, you know what to watch; VIX 18.40, UTIL 467.35, SOX 391 and JJC 43.70. Those four characters are of greatest interest to the quant. All four are bullish. If they stay bullish the markets move sideways to sideways up. If any of the four violate the level shown (remember VIX moves inversely), the broad indexes will sell off. If two of the four are negative substantial selling will appear with the SPX likely rupturing the 1397 level.

For the SPX on Wednesday, starting at 1405, the bulls need to push up over 1409 to launch an upside move to tag 1413 very quickly, then on to 1419.  The bears need to push below 1397 and a downside acceleration will occur to 1391 in short order. A move thru 1398-1408 is sideways action. Stay alert, watch the four parameters listed above, Keybot may easily flip back to the short side tomorrow.

9/9/12; 7:00 PM EST =
9/7/12; 9:00 AM EST =
9/4/12; 2:13 PM EST = +76; signal line is +63; go long 1402; (Benchmark SPX for 2012 = +11.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.6%)(Actual this trade = -0.3%; Actual for 2012 = +3.5%)

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