Keybot did not whipsaw after the move to the long side at Tuesday's opening bell. This is interesting since a multi-day timer is expiring and the next flip to the downside that Keybot performs will likely start to use double ETF's again. For now, the bulls are driving the bus. Markets remain highly unstable and erratic. Watch VIX 14.15 as the key metric. Bulls will continue to march markets higher with the VIX under 14.15 but the market bears will shine if VIX moves above 14.15.
4/26/13;
10:00 AM EST =
4/23/13;
9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +32; go long 1569; (Benchmark SPX for
2013 = +10.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2013 = +0.9%)(Actual this
trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2013 = +0.5%)
Could you explain what a "multi-day timer" is? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAl, the algo uses double-ETF's, such as SDS and SSO, but when a whipsaw occurs after a flip to the long side or flip to the short side (within 48 hours time), that whipsaw forces the algo to then use single-ETF's, such as SPY or SH, for 35 days time. The single-ETF's lower the risk. The algo does this since the whipsaw indicates that markets are stumbling along somewhat directionless, so until the markets begin trending again, further flattish action is expected, so if more turns occur quickly, it is better to operate using single-ETF's to minimize any losses.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, the last whipsaw was 3/20/13, so the flip to the bull side this week was at about the 34th day so Keybot stays with single ETF's. But the 35-day period is now expired, so Keybot has the go signal to use a double-leveraged ETF for the mext move to the bear side, which would be an ETF like SDS.