Monday, March 31, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains bearish but the algo number is dead tied with the signal line verifying the knock-down drag-out bull-bear struggle. Flip a coin to see who wins. Volatility collapsed today providing upside market rocket fuel. RTH teased its bull-bear level at 59.52-59.54 but failed. This is key. Bulls will head higher and not look back if the RTH 59.53 level and higher is achieved. If RTH turns bullish, and the SPX prints above 1875, and both remain bullish, Keybot will likely flip long. This may happen after the opening bell if the bulls mean business. Bears need to smack the retail stocks with all their might if they want to stay in the game. So tomorrow either provides the confirmation for the algo to flip long, or, the bears show up to fight. Bears are back in business if they can send VIX above 14.50.

For the SPX starting at 1872, the bulls need less than three points higher, above 1875, and an upside acceleration will occur that slices through 1878 resistance in a heartbeat and onward to the 1880's and the all-time highs. The bears must push under 1859 to regain their mojo. A move through 1860-1874 is sideways action for Tuesday. The bears have hung on for three weeks but cannot develop any sustainable downside action. Therefore the bulls are trying to run with the ball. The bulls had it on a silver platter today with RTH above 59.53 but interestingly, they could not hold it. Watch RTH 59.53, VIX 14.50 and SPX 1875 to determine market direction. RTH 59.53 is the battle ground and will tell the market story.

4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +47; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
3/31/14; 10:15 AM EST = +47; signal line is +48
3/31/14; 9:58 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
3/31/14; 9:36 AM EST = +47; signal line is +48
3/30/14; 7:00 PM EST = +33; signal line is +48

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.