Wednesday, April 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today. Once the financials, XLF 21.77, joined the bull camp, the algo latched across all parameters and flips long at SPX 1859. The markets are whipsawing sideways. Note that the prior move was 1859 to 1848, now 1848 back to 1859. These moves will wreak havoc on a timing model but Keybot is smart enough to drop down into single ETF's to ride the turbulence out minimizing the damage. Keybot cycled out of SH and into SPY. The algorithm program lost -0.6% on the last trade and also the actual trading. After 3-1/2 months roll by this year, the broad market is flat on the year.

SOX moves above 563.10. VIX drops under 14.77. Then XLF moves above 21.77 creating the late-day orgy into the closing bell. A triumphant of bullishness. Bears got nothing unless they regain one of these critical bull-bear levels. XLF is 21.82 only a nickel away so pay attention to that one after the opening bell. Tomorrow is the last day of trading this week due to the Good Friday holiday. Bulls will receive additional fuel by goosing copper and/or the retail sector.

For the SPX, the power thrust late-day is strong since price closed at the exact high at 1862.31. Therefore, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidgen of green overnight and it will be off to the races with an acceleration higher into the weekend. The bears will try to prevent any positive number in the overnight futures with all their might. In addition, bears must weaken financials and semiconductors and raise volatility. Bears will also try to push the SPX under 1846 to regain their mojo, a formidable task since the holiday weekend is nigh and traders are in a happy mood content with lining the markets out sideways so the barbecue can be fired up.

A move through SPX 1847-1861 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising. If two of the three parameters in the middle paragraph turn bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in play. The caution flag remains out since the bears may stage a comeback tomorrow. The whipsaw sideways market behavior may continue.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

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