STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long as the new week of trading begins but the algo is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number is 14 points under the signal line to create the move to the short side but the program has not latched all parameters properly as yet to allow the move.

The retail sector remains key. Watch RTH 58.98 as the main market directional rudder for Monday. Price is 58.93 only a nickel in the bear camp creating market negativity. Bears need to keep sending RTH lower and at the same time pushing volatility higher. The algo identifies VIX 14.05 as the level that would lock in sustainable market selling. The bulls need to push RTH above 58.98 and they will be in relaxation mode with equities floating along sideways with an upward bias with the fears for the short side eliminated. The rise in equities on Friday is surprising considering the weaker retail stocks.

For the SPX starting at 1936, the bulls only need one-point of upside, to push up through 1937, and the upside acceleration party begins the week with the SPX moving above 1940 quickly. So watch to see if the overnight futures are positive, or not. The bears need to push under 1928 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1929-1936 is sideways action. If the SPX drops under 1928, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If equities gap-down at the open, Keybot will likely not flip short at the opening bell since a timer will kick in that prevents the move for about 90 minutes. RTH 58.98 will tell you the market story. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week at 9 AM EST on Tuesday morning.

6/22/14; 7:00 PM EST =

6/17/14; 9:00 AM EST =

6/15/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long

6/13/14; 12:27 PM EST = +47; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long