Sunday, February 1, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the new week of trading. Markets remain very erratic and unstable jumping wildly higher and lower intraday and day to day. If you blink, seconds later the markets are moving in the reverse direction several handles. The bulls need to push volatility lower, under 16.10, and/or NYA above 10811 and/or SOX above 673.82. The bears need to push RTH under 70.50 and/or SPX  under 1962 to gather more downside momentum. Interestingly, all these sectors and price levels are difficult targets for both bulls and bears to attain, however, one of them will flinch.

Until then, the choppy sideways action likely continues. If the SPX moves above 2023 on Monday, Keybot will likely go long, however, if stocks rally but the bulls do not achieve one of the VIX, NYA or SOX targets above, stocks will weaken and roll over to the downside again.

For the SPX starting at 1995, the bulls need to push above 2023 to accelerate the upside and the bears need to push under 1993.50 to accelerate the downside. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if the bears can muster up a couple points of negativity to keep the downside party going. A move through 1994-2022 is sideways action for Monday. Watch semiconductors closely, SOX and SMH, early in the week since the chips contributed much of the market weakness last week. Equities will likely move in concert with semi's.

2/8/15; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/15; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +10; signal line is +24
1/30/15; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24

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