Saturday, March 12, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back into the bull camp at SPX 2008 after Friday's opening bell as was somewhat anticipated. Stocks gapped-up which triggers a timer to delay the move to the long side, however, commodities turned bullish and the algo flipped long immediately. GTX gapped higher way above 2150 at the opening bell so you knew the fix was in for the bulls immediately. In addition, banks catapult higher verifying the bullish joy.

Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side again. Markets are very erratic. The SPX is up to 2022 only 7 points from the critical 2029 level (which is the 12-month MA a critical cyclical market signal). It is a game-changer if the SPX moves above 2029 since stocks are back in a cyclical bull market and should remain buoyant for weeks and months ahead. Market bears must prevent 2029 from occurring; it is for all the marbles.

GTX 2150 and SPX 2029 are currently the key focus of the model and indicate that these two parameters have the greatest impact on market direction currently. The exact numbers can be identified once  the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

In a matter of hours, the last trade wiped out the prior three-week gain. The SPX benchmark remains negative on the year by a couple percent. The SPX began the year at 2044 (currently -1.1% lower on the year using the 2022 Friday close). Keybot exited DXD with the loss and entered SPY. The algo drops down into single ETF mode since the stock market has become too erratic to use leveraged ETF's; this lowers risk. The model will stay in single ETF mode for 35 days then revert back to double ETF's unless the algo whipsaws again. The algorithm program lost two percent on the last trade and the actual trading gave back -3.4% in the whipsaw. The beat goes on.

3/13/16; 7:00 PM EST =
3/11/16; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +46; go long 2008; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = -1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.8%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +8.1%)(Actual results this trade = -3.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +14.1%)
3/10/16; 3:54 PM EST = +51; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
3/10/16; 2:46 PM EST = +65; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
3/10/16; 2:45 PM EST = +49; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
3/10/16; 2:15 PM EST = +35; signal line is +41
3/10/16; 1:27 PM EST = +49; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains short
3/10/16; 12:39 PM EST = +35; signal line is +40; go short 1973; (Benchmark SPX for 2016 = -3.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +9.9%)(Actual results this trade = +3.8%; Actual results for 2016 = +17.5%)

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