Tuesday, September 25, 2018

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears continue battling. Utilities failed today at lunchtime so the door was wide open for the bears but they did not have the strength to follow through. The algo number fell below the signal line but the internal parameters would not completely latch to permit Keybot to flip to the short side.

Bears need UTIL under 710.80 (now at 712) to create stock market negativity. If UTIL falls below 711 and remains below, this spells serious trouble for the stock market over the intermediate term (weeks and months ahead). In the very near term, any day, if the UTIL 711 fails, remain alert for a sharp flush lower in the S&P 500. UTIL failed today at 711 but then recovered before any carnage could occur.

Bears also need VIX above 12.97 (now at 12.42). If either UTIL goes sub 711, or VIX pops above 12.97, either one would do, and the SPX drops under 2914, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need strong chips. Bulls need SOX above 1370.50 (now at 1365) pronto. The semiconductors are the only thing that can pull the bulls out of the quagmire. Bears need weaker chips, weaker utes and higher volatility. These three parameters currently dictate stock market direction.

9/28/18; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/18; 1:32 PM EST = +84; signal line is +79
9/25/18; 12:28 PM EST = +68; signal line is +79 but algorithm remains long
9/25/18; 10:13 AM EST = +84; signal line is +78

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