Wednesday, April 10, 2019


Keybot the Quant remains long. The algorithm is idling along this week without printing any numbers as yet. The quant continues tracking banks and copper as the two key parameters controlling market direction. You can see that the bears are having a hard time gathering up downside steam since oil and copper remain elevated.

Interestingly, the Q1 earnings season is about to kick off with the...... wait for it...... banks. So the stakes are high. As the banks go, so goes the stock market. Bears need XLF below 26.00 (now at 26.41). Bulls are fine above XLF 26. Bears need a drop of about -1.6% in the banks.

Bears need copper to drop to create market sickness. Bears need CPER under 18.00 (now at 18.39). Bulls are fine above CPER 18. Copper futures are up +0.2% on Wednesday morning. Bears need a drop of about -2.2% in copper to create market mayhem.

Keybot likely needs to see both banks and copper to fail to flip itself short. However, especially with the banks about to report yearnings, a failure in financials may create the initial push lower for the stock market on their own. XLF would have to fail at 26-ish, and remain below for a few minutes or so, then recover back above to the bull side for a while, then fail again (jogging above and below the bull-bear line in the sand at 26-ish). On that second failure, that may be enough to flip Keybot short, if this scenario occurs. Time will tell. Watch the banks and copper.

4/14/19; 7:00 PM EST =
4/12/19; 10:00 AM EST =
4/7/19; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +81

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