STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market late-year melt-up continues fueled by US-China trade deal hype. Happy Thanksgiving to all. US markets are closed today as traders lounge around at home eating turkey legs and pumpkin pie. Under the cover of the Turkey Day holiday, President Trump signs the US bill supporting the Hong Kong protesters which will draw the ire of President Xi that told him for the last five months to not meddle in their Chinese domestic affairs. Comically, Trump tells Xi he is doing him a favor. Trump signed the bill because he would have been overruled by Congress anyway due to the bipartisan (majority of democrats and republicans) support for the bill.

S&P futures drop -10 on the news last evening and have remained there so not a big retreat on the negative news. Traders are likely waiting to see how China responds. Of course, signing the Hong Kong bill throws a wrench into the trade talks but it appears that Trump and Xi need political wins so both may desire a trade deal.

The big up in copper creates the new all-time high for the S&P 500 at 3153.63 the highest number in history and a new all-time closing high, the 26th of this year, at 3154.26.

The bears need weaker copper and commodities, CPER below 16.63 and/or GTX below 2452, respectively. This reflects a drop in copper futures of about -1.7% and a drop in commodities of about -1.5%. Copper futures are currently trading down -0.8% so the bears are halfway there.

The bears would also benefit from higher volatility. The stock market will fall apart when the VIX moves above 15 but the bulls are happy and content with the current 11-handle. Weaker utilities would also benefit the bears. Watch UTIL 832-ish through Friday, 12/6/19. If this level fails before then, stocks will be in serious trouble. If UTIL falls below 846 during the week of 12/16/19, stocks will be in serious trouble. UTIL is currently at 853.

The bulls are in charge with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. The caution flag remains out since the markets can turn on a dime due to the trade deal drama. Tomorrow, Friday is the last day of trading for November (EOM). It is surprising to see the stock market continue higher since when a month is up from start to finish, like November, it typically ends in weakness the last 2 or 3 days.

12/1/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

11/26/19; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +82

11/25/19; 3:31 PM EST = +88; signal line is +82; go long 3133; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +25.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +19.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +39.4%)