STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3337.77 on Wednesday, 1/22/20, and then falls on its sword. The bears, however, once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Bears had the stock market on a silver platter yesterday but simply did not have the juice to get the job done; it must be all that eggnog, and cookies, desserts and the holiday cheer aftermath weighing the fur-bearers down.

The market makers jammed copper higher in the afternoon yesterday to prevent the bears from taking over control of the stock market direction. The fix was in at 1:30 PM EST. The bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 10 points above the signal line.

However, it is not all wine and roses for the bulls. Copper is teetering on the edge of falling back into the bear camp. Bears need CPER below 17.36 to create market gloom which is only 4 pennies lower. This represents about a -0.2% drop in copper and the copper futures are currently down -0.3% so the bears are smiling.

Bears would also benefit from VIX moving above 13.58. VIX is currently trading at 13.20 as this message is typed about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the regular US Thursday trading session. Bears got nothing unless they can pump the VIX another 38 cents higher. The Fed and other central bankers maintain their jackboots on the throat of volatility.

Commodities are in a stealth 3-week collapse. The novel coronavirus is adding to the retreat. Bulls must keep copper and commodities elevated to keep the stock market elevated. Bulls need to keep CPER above 17.36 and must push GTX back above 2512. GTX failed into the bear camp yesterday creating the market sogginess that extends into this morning. S&P futures are down -2.

The sick commodities are casting a pall over the stock market that could do no wrong for the last four months (since stocks are always supported by rich Uncle Fed to protect the wealthy privileged class). Looking at current price conditions, bulls need stronger commodities while bears need weaker copper and higher volatility. For the remainder of the week, as copper goes, so goes the stock market.

Thus, copper is set to fail back into the bear camp at the opening bell if the current copper futures remain weak. This will set the algo up to flip short again, however, the quant likely needs to see the SPX below 3320 and trending lower to flip short. The SPX begins the Thursday session at 3322 so the bears only need 2 down points on the S&P 500 to wreak havoc (as long as copper remains and becomes weaker). The imminent turn notation remains in the title line and Keybot the Quant could potentially flip short after the opening bell. Time will tell. Pay attention to copper.

1/26/20; 7:00 PM EST =

1/22/20; 1:33 PM EST = +86; signal line is +76
1/22/20; 10:50 AM EST = +70; signal line is +76 but algorithm remains long