STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and has not printed any numbers since the pre-scheduled number last Wednesday. The bulls are in charge of the stock market with the algo number 14 points above the signal line.

Utilities ended the week at the lows. Be very afraid going forward. UTIL collapses to 771. The quant is tracking UTIL 762.60 as the bull-bear line in the sand for this week. Thus, if the 771 holds, it will actually help the bulls maintain an elevated stock market. However, if the 763 level fails, the stock market may crash. Watch it closely.

The bears need weaker utes and banks and higher volatility to create market mayhem. Note that the VIX ended the week at the highs at 35.12. As volatility climbs, the intraday and day to day moves in the stock market will become larger and more erratic. The stock market will sell off if the VIX moves above 36.45 so it is very much in play and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Bears also need XLF below 23.49 to create selling pressure. XLF came down to about 20 cents away from this bull-bear line in the sand in Friday's trade. Banks are releasing stress test information on Thursday so the bulls may try to keep the XLF afloat until that data is released.

The bulls need stronger commodities and GTX is on the verge of a breakout higher. GTX is at 1662 and printed a high at 1677 on Friday only 10 points from the 1687 bull-bear line in the sand that will add upside juice to the stock market. A weaker US dollar will send commodities higher while a stronger dollar will tend to stifle commodities.

Summing up to provide some simple things yinz can watch, bulls are happy and will maintain elevated stocks if UTIL remains above 763 this week and if GTX moves above 1687. The bears will growl if UTIL loses 763, XLF loses 23.49 and/or if VIX moves above 36.45. If any of these 3 parameters flip to the bear camp, and if the SPX drops below 3083, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. If UTIL loses the 763 level, the stock market may crash at the least the S&P 500 would be expected to flush lower from 20 to 30 points within a half hour after the UTIL 763 is breached, if it is breached.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning one-half hour after the opening bell. The VIX will provide a heads-up for the Monday session in the States after it begins trading overnight. Watch those utilities. The stock market may experience epic times this week.

Global traders are expecting the PBOC (China's central bank) to lower the triple R's (reserve requirement ratios for banks) this weekend which will provide more easy money to keep the sick financial circus afloat. The Chinese may announce the cuts at 5 PM EST before US futures begin trading this evening at 6 PM EST. If so, it will likely buoy the market and provide encouragement to utilities and banks and send volatility lower. If China remains quiet, and traders are looking under the bed for triple R cuts and do not find any, that may open the door to substantive trouble for equities this week. Traders are like junkies; they need that central banker easy money fix every few days or they go into withdrawal. The PBOC cut the triple R's at the July 4 US holiday two years ago.

There are lots of moving parts and noise in markets right now. Focus on the utes, banks, volatility and commodities. These four parameters are dictating stock market direction currently. The bulls do not want to stop believing in the perpetual, central banker-driven stock market ongoing for over 11 years.

6/28/20; 7:00 PM EST =

6/26/20; 10:00 AM EST =

6/21/20; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is -7

6/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +7; signal line is -7