Monday, March 1, 2021


Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild snap-back rally to begin the week. Volatility drops so stocks pop. VIX fell through the key 24.21 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls throw confetti.

Utilities are jammed higher but bulls are unable to push UTIL back up through the trap-door at 824.20. Also, the bull party was in full swing but retail stocks decided to stay in the bear camp with RTH remaining under 158.80.

So the stage remains set. If either UTIL or RTH turn bullish, either one would do, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be in play and if SPX then runs above 3915 heading higher, Keybot will likely flip long. Tuesday is a huge day.

Bears need VIX above 24.21 or they got nothing. Bears must wrestle the Fed's jackboot from Uncle Vix's throat and allow VIX to jump up which would send stocks lower.

Thus, the bears path to victory is higher volatility and VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. The bulls need higher utilities and/or retail stocks (think AMZN) to carry the stock market to victory and flip the model to the long side.

Volatility, retail stocks and utilities are all that matter; they alone dictate stock market direction for Tuesday.

3/7/21; 7:00 PM EST =
3/5/21; 9:00 AM EST =
3/1/21; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +51
2/28/21; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +51

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