Friday, July 9, 2021

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side today. Yesterday morning, the quant flips short and this morning long so Monday morning short again? Anything is possible. Volatility has dictated market direction the last 2 days. The Fed kept its jackboots on the throat of volatility all day to provide lift to the stock market and then the banks were pumped after the announcement that more money-printing will continue forever.

On the last trade which only ran for a day, the quant program loses -0.6% and the actual trading loses about -2%. The flip is quantified as a whipsaw by the robot so the program drops into single ETF mode. Stocks are likely going into a sideways choppy slop pattern that will chew-up bulls and bears alike. Chop suey. Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +16%, the quant program is up +15% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +22% in 2021.

For next week, it is copper, banks and volatility controlling market direction. If copper futures are up overnight Sunday, stocks will keep rallying. Flat or lower copper futures will keep the bears in the game and hint that a flat or lower stock market is ahead for Monday. VIX above 18.61 or XLF below 36.58 will create stock market trouble. A leg down occurs in stocks if one parameter fails but if both volatility spikes and banks fail, the stock market will accelerate lower. UTIL must remain above 880 all next week or that spells trouble.

7/18/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/16/21; 10:00 AM EST =
7/11/21; 7:00 PM EST =
7/9/21; 2:12 PM EST = +76; signal line is +51
7/9/21; 9:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50; go long 4345; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.0%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +22.2%)
7/9/21; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 2:13 PM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 11:44 AM EST = +60; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains short
7/8/21; 10:07 AM EST = +46; signal line is +50
7/8/21; 9:38 AM EST = +30; signal line is +51
7/8/21; 9:30 AM EST = +46; signal line is +52; go short 4321; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +15.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.9%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.0%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)

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