Monday, August 16, 2021

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips short this morning at the opening bell at SPX 4454 but is already champing at the bit to whipsaw back to the long side. The internal parameters will not fully latch so for now at least, the bears are in charge. The SPX is up 6.66 points to 4475 the HOD with about a half hour left in the Monday trade.

On the last trade, that ran a little over a week, the quant program and actual trading each gain about a percent. On the year, the SPX is up +19%. The bulls cheer the generous Federal Reserve. The algo program is up +17% on the year thus far and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +24%. Keybot exits SH and enters SDS returning to the 2x ETF's because the whipsaw timer expired.

VIX 17.17 is the rudder that is steering the stock market ship. VIX is at 16.17 so the SPX is buoyant. Trouble occurs if VIX moves above 17.17. If VIX remains below 17.17, stocks will float higher and Keybot will probably whipsaw long tomorrow.

8/22/21; 7:00 PM EST =
8/18/21; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/21; 11:19 AM EST = +72; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
8/16/21; 9:30 AM EST = +58; signal line is +63; go short 4454; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +18.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +16.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.9%; Actual results for 2021 = +24.1%)
8/16/21; 8:07 AM EST = +58; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
8/16/21; 6:35 AM EST = +72; signal line is +61
8/16/21; 6:05 AM EST = +58; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
8/15/21; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +61
8/13/21; 2:08 PM EST = +72; signal line is +60
8/13/21; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +59
8/13/21; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +58
8/10/21; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +58
8/9/21; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +57
8/8/21; 7:00 PM EST = +72; signal line is +58
8/6/21; 9:00 AM EST = +72; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:54 PM EST = +72; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:19 PM EST = +58; signal line is +57
8/5/21; 3:07 PM EST = +72; signal line is +56
8/5/21; 2:49 PM EST = +58; signal line is +56
8/5/21; 1:33 PM EST = +72; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 11:48 AM EST = +58; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 10:51 AM EST = +72; signal line is +55
8/5/21; 10:01 AM EST = +58; signal line is +53; go long 4419; (Benchmark SPX for 2021 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2021 = +15.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2021 = +23.2%)

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