Friday, July 28, 2023

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo number is only a measly 5 points above the signal line so the bulls keep trying to hang on day after day. The drama with utilities and copper continue. Add volatility to the mix and these three parameters are dictating the direction of the US stock market currently.

UTIL (DJU) is at 934 falling back yesterday from the key 945.03 (this parameter fluctuates slightly since it is continually recalculated) and 956.47 lines in the sand. This is a major failure that points to serious trouble for the stock market ahead. However, the utes have made this threat 2 or 3 other times in recent weeks only for the Fed and others to pump utes higher to take away the threat. Perhaps they may not be able to save the utilities going forward.

For today, bulls need to push UTIL above 945.03 to prove they still got game. In addition, a move above 956.47 would prove that the stock market rally has more legs. For next week, the 956.47 is meaningless and replaced with 969.34 a harder comparable for the bulls to achieve.

For next week, the two key bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 945.03 and 969.34. Therefore, pay close attention to where UTIL ends the week today. If UTIL ends above 969, that tells you a huge rally in stocks is on tap next week. If UTIL finishes today above 945 but below 969, it is more same-o, same-o, choppy confusing slop going forward. If UTIL finishes today below 945, the US stock market is in trouble going forward.

Copper is another big influencer of stock market direction currently like utes. Bears must push CPER below 23.60, price is now at 23.76, to create market mayhem. That is only 16 pennies away or -0.7%. Copper futures are currently up +0.5% in real-time so the bears have work to do.

Volatility is coming back into play as well. The robot identifies VIX 16.44 as an increasingly important parameter impacting stock market direction. VIX is at the 14.41 palindrome at the end of the day yesterday and is currently trading at 13.92 below 14. You will know that the stock market is in real trouble and falling apart when VIX moves above 16.44. Until then, the bears can growl, but their bark does not have much bite.

The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction. If the bears can keep utes negative, and at the same time pull CPER below 23.60, and pull the SPX below 4529, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If VIX pops above 16.44, the stock market will be in free fall. The fun continues. All the girls and lovely ladies just want to have fun.

7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/25/23; 10:25 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/25/23; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/24/23; 11:24 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
7/24/23; 10:37 AM EST = +44 signal line is +33
7/24/23; 10:20 AM EST = +28; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32

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