Keybot the Quant remains short as the markets idle into Fed day today. Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High this afternoon to tell global traders how to trade. The algo number is 33 points below the signal line so the bears are walking around with their chests puffed out.
Bulls need higher copper, chips and retail stocks to regain stock market control. Bulls need CPER above 23.40, RTH above 175.30 and/or SOX above 3558. Any 1 of the 3 will stop the stock market selling and place bulls on steady ground. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, stocks will be rallying higher and likely position the quant to go long. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting to the moon.
Copper futures are up +0.6% and CPER only needs to gain +0.3% to flip bullish so it looks like copper will jump into the bull camp after the opening bell. This activity likely places the stock market on hold until Chairman Powell walks onto the stage with his jelly-stained necktie in a few hours.
Bears need higher volatility and weaker banks. Bears need VIX above 14.80 and XLF below 34.28 to create stock market carnage. Of course, Powell's presser will move the banks. Yesterday, the VIX teased 14.80 but then pulled back down waiting on the Fed. VIX is now trading at 13.91 in real-time so the bears have to jam it a stick higher if they want to growl.
Volatility is the key. Bulls win today if they keep Uncle Vix below 14.80. If VIX pops above 14.80, there will be blood on Wall Street. Powell is getting ready for the big day at home asking his wife if she can help him find two socks that match.
9/24/23;
7:00 PM EST =
9/19/23;
9:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +28
9/18/23;
12:20 PM EST = -5; signal line is +29
9/18/23;
9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is +29
9/17/23;
7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +30
9/15/23;
11:21 AM EST = +27; signal line is +29
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