STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market drama continues. The bulls are in charge but only by a measly 5-point advantage that can easily flip back to the bear side at anytime.

Banks and copper continue running the show. Copper is bearish creating negativity in the stock market but a +2% rise in copper futures will signal that there is more upside ahead for stocks. Any negativity in copper futures will add nails to the bull coffin.

XLF 41.02 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for the banksters and is uber important. XLF begins the week at 41.11. You can watch it in the pre-market tomorrow morning to see what the story is but a failure through 41.02 spells big trouble for stocks.

If XLF loses 41.02, and the SPX drops below 5451 heading lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If XLF remains above 41.02, the stock market will remain elevated, floating along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If XLF 41.02 fails, watch commodities, retail stocks and volatility. Bears need GTX below 3670, RTH below 203.60 and/or VIX above 13.86, respectively. All three are bullish now but if stocks turn sour, you can use these three parameters to see how deep the selling may be. If XLF fails, and GTX, RTH and VIX fail, stocks will be dropping bigtime and a -10% correction would be reasonable for starters with more to follow.

For Monday morning, focus on XLF 41.02 and the copper futures to gauge how the day will go. The week ahead is goofy with the July 4th holiday on Thursday and markets closed. The Jobs Report is on tap for Friday morning.

7/7/24; 7:00 PM EST =
7/5/24; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +45; signal line is +40
6/28/24; 3:56 PM EST = +45; signal line is +41
6/28/24; 3:06 PM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/28/24; 10:00 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/28/24; 9:37 AM EST = +45; signal line is +42
6/27/24; 9:36 AM EST = +29; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
6/26/24; 3:58 PM EST = +45; signal line is +42