STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after Pope Powell pumps the stock market higher with promises of rate cuts as far as the eye can see. Powell, after a long bender listening to Midnight Oil tunes, proclaims that 'the time has come' to goose the markets further into the stratosphere making the rich richer. It is fun to watch the corrupt crony American casino. The algo number is only 14 points above the signal line but it is plenty for the bulls to remain in control of the stock market. Caution, however, is warranted.

The VIX 14.82 bull/bear line in the sand identified by the quant, the stock market rudder, remains dominant and the key metric impacting stock market direction. VIX will begin the new week at 15.86 in the bear camp causing market negativity. Bulls will celebrate if VIX drops below 14.82.

Bulls need copper and commodities to rally for the stock market to further rally. First, bulls need the VIX below 14.82, then CPER (copper) above 26.59, then GTX (commodities) above 3615. These positive developments will send stocks to the moon with bulls dancing on tabletops and more Wall Street analysts calling for SPX 6,000 within the next 17 weeks.

Conversely, bears need to maintain the higher volatility and send the VIX higher over 20, while pulling the chips back into their camp. Semiconductors stuck a shiv into the bears ribs last week allowing the bulls to run stocks higher. Bears need the SOX to drop below 5125 which will usher-in stock market negativity. The quant will likely want to flip short if the chips collapse but on Monday the robot likely needs the SPX to drop below 5585 heading lower to flip short. The S&P 500 starts the week at 5635 so that would be 50 points of downside. This would occur if the VIX spikes higher.

Easy-peasy. Bulls need lower vol and stronger copper and commodities and the futures markets overnight will hint at this direction forward. Bears need weaker chips to create a new round of stock market carnage so watch SOX, XSD, SMH, NVDA, INTC, AMD, etc... VIX 14.82 remains the key metric right now and is currently steering the stock market ship into Troubled Waters.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other on Friday. The month of trading (EOM) ends on Friday and September trading begins next Tuesday after the Labor Day holiday on Monday. Stocks tend to be bullish the two days in front of a holiday weekend (this Thursday and Friday).

9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
8/25/24; 7:00 PM EST = +17; signal line is +3
8/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +17; signal line is +2
8/22/24; 3:28 PM EST = +1; signal line is +1 but algorithm remains long
8/20/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -1
8/19/24; 10:51 AM EST = +31; signal line is -2
8/19/24; 3:06 AM EST = +17; signal line is -4
8/18/24; 7:00 PM EST = +31; signal line is -5