STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after last week's bull/bear battle. Stocks stumble sideways with a slight upward bias because the VIX will not give up the 14.71 line in the sand. The bulls teased a couple times taking the VIX sub 15 but could not achieve the goal of dropping below 14.71 which would firmly verify the upside move in stocks and its continuation. Stocks were bullish the last two trading days into the 3-day holiday weekend as is typically the case.

The bulls remain in charge but the algo number is only 4 points above the signal line. Flip a coin. Volatility is a key mover of stocks currently, as mentioned, and also copper, commodities and the semiconductors.

The bulls need VIX below 14.71, CPER above 26.55 and/or GTX above 3607. Any 1 of the 3 flipping into the bull camp will create another leg higher for the US stock market. A VIX below 14.71 will create an upside buying orgy so obscene it would make Caligula blush. So the bulls are praying for lower vol and higher copper and commodities to boost stocks higher. Commodities made a run higher last week but that petered out.

The bears need SOX below 5132 to reintroduce stock market weakness and selling. The chip battle was a knock-down drag-out fight last week as the quant printout shows. The semiconductors are running the stock market show currently and created last weeks buoyancy in the stock market.

US markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The uber important US Monthly Jobs Report is on tap Friday morning and will be the Superbowl of economic data. The US unemployment rate is 4.3%. If it jumps higher to 4.4% and more, Pope Powell is probably late with the rate cuts and may go 50-bips this month. If the rate stays around this 4.1% to 4.3% range and lower, a 25-bip cut is likely on the table for 9/18/24. 

The stage is set for Tuesday. It looked like the bears were taking control last week and both copper and semiconductors failed into the bear camp creating negativity, but by the end of the week, the chips recovered to steady the stock market ship. This battle continues.

Keeping it simple, bulls win big with either VIX below 14.71 and/or CPER above 26.55. If both turn bullish, the euphoric SPX 6,000 calls for this year may actually become a reality.

However, if the VIX remains elevated, and copper weak, and the SOX loses 5132, there will be blood flowing on Wall and Broad. Watch the futures to know what is going on with volatility and copper. Bulls need a +0.9% rise in copper futures to turn on the afterburners and send stocks to the moon. Bears need a -0.5% drop in semiconductors to reintroduce stock market weakness and selling. Volatility, copper and chips are all that matter to the stock market currently.

If the SOX loses 5132, and the SPX drops below 5582 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short so the imminent turn notation is in the title line for now. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Two-thirds of 2024 is toast with only one-third remaining. Happy Labor Day. Lightning Crashes during labor.

9/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 11:02 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +14
8/30/24; 10:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
8/30/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +15
8/30/24; 9:47 AM EST = +18; signal line is +16
8/29/24; 2:16 PM EST = +2; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 1:58 PM EST = +18; signal line is +17
8/29/24; 1:17 PM EST = +2; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:43 AM EST = +18; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 11:26 AM EST = +2; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:49 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:21 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/29/24; 10:02 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:53 AM EST = +2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/27/24; 12:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +18