STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the SPX printing a new all-time record high at 6187.68 and new all-time closing high at 6173.07. Some of the upside is due to window dressing for the quarter-end and end of the first half of 2025. Financial managers want to show that they own the hot stocks on the client statements so they buy them in the final days creating uplift in the stock market. The algo number is only a measly 7 points above the signal line so the bulls are in charge but walking a tightrope.

The robot remains most interested in commodities and utilities as the main drivers of stock market direction currently. Both are creating bullishness for stocks with prices above the GTX 3712 and UTIL 1020 bull/bear lines in the sand. If either fails, and the SPX drops below 6132 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short. If UTIL 1009 then fails, it will be lights-out for stocks going forward.

The robot also continues tracking banks, copper and volatility as the next tier of parameters impacting stock market direction. Watch VIX 22.69 because if price remains below, the bears got nothing. If VIX moves above 22.69, stocks will fall apart.

The month, quarter and first half of the year ends on Monday so the quant prints a prescheduled number Monday evening. The US Jobs Monthly Report is pulled forward to Thursday due to the Independence Day July 4th holiday on Friday when US markets are closed for fun, frolic and fireworks. The goal is to still have the same number of fingers next week at this time. The Roman Candles are ready to go.

The stock market typically rallies the day or two in front of a 3-day holiday weekend. Also, new money comes into the market the first few days of July as the new quarter and second half of the year begins usually creating buoyancy in stocks. With these erratic and unstable markets, do not have any expectations. King Donnie or Pope Powell may say something sending stocks wildly in one direction or the other.

Watch commodities and utilities closely and keep a hairy eyeball on banks, copper and volatility. This week you will hear a lot of patriotic songs as it should be. America the Beautiful.

7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = 
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49