STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short navigating the circus that is called the stock market. Last week was set up for craziness and it did not disappoint. Another King Donnie Chumpski stick save rescues the stock market at least for the near-term. Stocks rally on news that the Iran War situation is resolved, or is it? Retail stocks, banks and copper jump higher sending stocks higher. Interesting, in the smoke and haze, no one noticed that commodities failed. The bulls then pumped utilities higher late in the session on Friday to guarantee the happy ending. Avril and My Happy Ending.

Despite the wild ride, and Keybot spitting out 7 numbers on Friday including the prescheduled number, and the algo number 10 points above the signal line, the robot remains short. The stock market is hanging on news about Donnie's Iran War fiasco. Is there a deal? No deal? A lousy deal? Futures begin trading at 6 PM EST so watch for the rhetoric to heat up this afternoon as Donnie, and Iran, make statements to sway markets and global opinion.

Baby Trump insists that Iran sign an agreement today, on his 80th birthday since symbolism is all that matters to the fool, but Iran says they will definitely not sign the agreement today. Huh? It is all pure jackass stuff. The Middle East is 7 hours ahead so at 5 PM EST (US East Coast time), it will already be Monday in Iran. Thus, the so-called agreement needs to be signed within 12 hours from this message to make the Sunday deadline.

The Fed meeting is Wednesday and Chairman Warsh's debut performance in the top job. Obviously, that will impact markets in the week ahead depending on if he is wearing the black feathered wings for a hawkish position or the white feathered wings, borrowed from the Victoria's Secret show, for a dovish position. The crosscurrents remain a tangled mess. Stocks typically rally into the Fed meeting but today is the peak of the new moon for the month and equities are typically weak moving through the new moon.

Putting all the drama aside, the robot only sees 1's and 0's, and is fixated on utilities, volatility and commodities as the key metrics that will impact stocks out of the gate tomorrow.

Utes and volatility are in the bull camp creating a lift in stocks while commodities are in the bear camp creating negativity. Bears need UTIL below 1115 pronto to prove they got game. Price begins the week at 1116. The quant has told you many days that 1115 is key and you saw price continuing to come up, and get spanked down from that level, until Friday when it poked up through albeit by a hair. Utilities are key because they tell you if the pullback in stocks will be a run of the mill selloff followed by a recovery, or if stocks will go into a crash or semi-crash profile. It is fun stuff.

Bears also need VIX above 20.70 or they got nothing. Equities may sell off but if the VIX remains below 20.70, the bears got buptkis, and stocks will recover and rally.

The bulls want to flip the model short right now and need to show up Monday loaded for bear if they want to take control of the stock market. The bulls need the SPX to move above 7456 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The S&P 500 begins at 7431 so watch the futures overnight to see if +25 points are there for the bulls.

Bulls also need stronger commodities if they want to make a run higher again. Bulls need GTX above 5236 with price starting at 5224. Friday's action was wild because commodities failed before munch time and the quant was finally ready to flip long with the internals latching properly, but the algo number was not above the signal line, and then when utilities won the day late in the session placing the algo number back above the signal line, the internal parameters would not fully latch again to permit the move to the long side. It is wild and crazy stuff. Two Wild and Crazy Guys.

Simplifying, bulls need SPX 7456 to flip the model long. GTX above 5236 will then create a stronger rally for stocks. Bears simply need to push UTIL, or DJU, below 1115, only a point away, to keep the stock market ball firmly in their hands. Bears will create a new leg lower in the stock market if the VIX pops above 20.70 so keep an eye on that overnight.

If you have a limited platform, you can keep track of the commodities price at stockcharts.com with the $GTX symbol. The world awaits more Donnie comments on the Iran War debacle. Trumpski should have listened to Edwin. War. Good God y'all.

6/21/26; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/26; 9:00 AM EST =
6/14/26; 7:00 PM EST = 39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 3:59 PM EST = 39; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 3:39 PM EST = 23; signal line is +28
6/12/26; 2:37 PM EST = 39; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 11:01 AM EST = 23; signal line is +26
6/12/26; 10:42 AM EST = 37; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 10:09 AM EST = 53; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/12/26; 10:00 AM EST = 37; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
6/11/26; 1:38 PM EST = 37; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short