Tuesday, July 5, 2011

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish, idling along quietly after the early morning number registered. Financials are the key item to watch tomorrow via the XLF, now at 15.49.  If the XLF loses 15.43, the market bears will be pushing the indexes south. If the XLF remains above 15.43, then more sideways slop is likely ahead of the more important days this week; ECB Thursday, and Jobs Friday.

Watch the semi's as well, SOX, now at 414.94 is bearish as perceived by the algorithm that is currently using 416.40 as a bull-bear line.  Thus, if the markets look like they want to run higher, watch the SOX, if it does not regain the 416.40 figure, then the bulls got nothing, if the bulls get the SOX above 416.40, the move higher will be real and have legs.

For the SPX today, note that the market bears stopped the bears from touching a 1341 handle.  SPX came up to 1340.89 but the market bulls did not have a measly 11 more cents of oomph to get it there which would have accelerated the indexes upwards again. So tomorrow, you will see if the bears can establish a further beach head, or not.

For the SPX for tomorrow, the market bulls need three points of upside after the opening bell, thus, watch for green futures, if they can touch that 1341 handle that they could not touch today, the bulls will be off to the races, testing 1345, then perhaps 1349. If the market bears start out with red futures and move three points lower after the open, to move down to lose the 1334 handle, the selling will come in force, and drive the indexes south a few handles.  In fact, if the SPX ventures down towards 1334 and change tomorrow, its going to fail and the bears will taste some revenge.

There is a tight sideways range available from 1335-1339 tomorrow but the narrowness of this range hints that one side or the other will win, and that will be determined by the 1341 handle or 1334 handle.

7/31/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/11; 10:00 AM EST =
7/26/11; 10:00 AM EST =
7/24/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/11; 9:00 AM EST =
7/17/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/11; 10:00 AM EST =
7/10/11; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/11; 9:00 AM EST =
7/5/11; 9:49 AM EST = +34; signal line is -7
7/3/11; 7:00 PM EST = +50
7/1/11; 10:03 AM EST = +50
7/1/11; 10:00 AM EST = +34
7/1/11; 9:35 AM EST = +34
6/30/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1= +18
6/30/11; 1:16 PM EST = +18
6/30/11; 12:08 PM EST = +34
6/29/11; 10:41 AM EST = +18
6/29/11; 9:30 AM EST = +4
6/28/11; 10:30 AM EST = -12
6/28/11; 10:00 AM EST = -28; signal line is -30
6/28/11; 9:36 AM EST = -28; signal line is -30; go long 1285; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=+2.2%)(Keybot this trade=-0.6%; Keybot for 2011=+4.8%)(Actual this trade via DOG=-0.8%; Actual for 2011=-0.9%)

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