Friday, September 2, 2011


Keybot the Quant remains on the short side after the pre-scheduled number prints no change. The jobs report number a short time ago was terrible and futures weakened about 10 additional spoo's. The commodities,as measured by CRB, continue to fall from grace after the peaks at 343-ish over the last couple days, now falling under 340, and testing 339. As the CRB moves lower towards 300, that will be one of the signals for Chairman Bernanke to announce QE3.

Sticking to the technicals, the market bears obviously have the wind at their backs to start the Friday session. Commodities, copper and retail, the three sectors that were providing the broad market recovery rally its gusto this week, have all retreated now. If you remember from a couple weeks ago, the algo was watching the utilities and specifically, the UTIL 50 week MA, which represents a trap door for the markets. This is now on the table again and Keybot is scanning this with great interest currently.  Watch UTIL, now at 432.47 to start the day, if the 415.42 level is lost, this will open a trap door in the broad markets and a significant selling event will occur for the indexes. If UTIL can stay above 415.42 today, then the market bulls can minimize todays damage.

For the SPX today, a move to 1203 will usher in accelerated selling, and, considering the poor jobs data and futures, this is a done deal for the open. Market bulls need to move to 1229 to reestablish the recovery rally but at least for today, that appears unreasonable. Thus, the market bears are coming to play today; key SPX support exists at 1197, 1193, 1192, 1188, 1184, 1183, 1181, 1179, 1178, 1177 and 1173.  The key item to watch is UTIL 415.42, if lost, the broad markets will go into free fall, if this level holds, then the bulls can keep the bleeding to a minimum today.

10/7/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
9/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/11; 9:00 AM EST =
9/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/11; 7:00 PM EST =
9/2/11; 9:00 AM EST = -72
9/1/11; 2:02 PM EST = -72; signal line is -51; go short 1207; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-4.1%)(Keybot this trade=+5.3%; Keybot for 2011=+26.5%)(Actual this trade via SSO=+12.1%; Actual for 2011=+40.5%)

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