Sunday, September 25, 2011


Keybot is short to start the new trading week. After Thursday's open, the SPX travels sideways thru 1119 and 1142. The lower boundary was tested in conjuntion with the utilities, UTIL, testing a specific price level that is dictated by the quant. Last week that level was 423.83, this week the level is 426.79. Note that this is three points higher than last week, thus, favoring the market bears more, since now the threshold to cross under it and to push the markets lower is easier.

As the SPX moved up to test the top side of the range at 1142, the retail sector was causing this lift trying to pull the entire market up. But, RTH went up to try and punch thru the 103.75 (another number dictated by the quant) three times on Friday and could not seal the deal. Thus the SPX moves thru the overall range sideways; the utes unable to signal the downside rupture and retail unable to signal the top side thrust.

So, for Monday's trade, watch the 1119-1142 range, any move outside of these boundaries is important. Watch UTIL 426.79. UTIL starts at 431.55 only four and one-half points higher. If UTIL loses the 426.79, that will cause the broad markets to fall, the SPX 1119 level would give way and the trip downward to test 1101 would begin. For the bulls, they need to see RTH move above 103.85, now at 103.49. Any bit of positive retail news would push the RTH above that level and take the broad markets higher.

For the SPX, starting at 1136, market bulls need to punch up thru 1142 to ignite large block buying. SPX should move to 1155 if 1142 is broken. For the bears, they need to lose the 1121 support, if they can see an 1120 handle, the sell side should open up wide and 1119 would probably fail immediately, then the trek towards testing 1101 would begin. A move thru 1122-1140 is sideways mumbo jumbo. The tell for each side is described above. For bulls, watch to see if RTH moves above 103.85, if so, you are in clover.  For bears, watch to see if UTIL loses 426.79, if so, you are in clover.

Equities move in the same direction as the euro (opposite the dollar) so the news flow dictates the markets. The algo prints off two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other Friday. Friday ends the month and quarter; EOM, EOQ3.

10/9/11; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/11; 10:00 AM EST =
10/2/11; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/11; 10:00 AM EST =
9/25/11; 7:00 PM EST = -56; signal line is -51
9/22/11; 9:30 AM EST = -56; signal line is -51; go short 1150; (Benchmark SPX for 2011=-8.6%)(Keybot this trade=-2.5%; Keybot for 2011=+23.9%)(Actual this trade via SPY=-4.3%; Actual for 2011=+35.4%)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.