Sunday, December 11, 2011


Keybot the Quant is long to start the new trading week.  Copper and semiconductors moved from bullish to bearish, then back to bullish last week, which accounted for the moves in the broad market.  Thus, the market bears made a push lower but petered out so the bulls are trying to run with the ball again.  SPX is moving thru the 1235-1268 range for the last seven days so the exit from this range will be telling.

Commodities in general remain weak with the CRB falling 2.3% last week and about to test the 200-day MA at 304.50. CRB under 300 will ignite disinflation fears and verify a global economic slowdown.  For now, however, the bulls remain in control of the indexes.  Watch SOX 371.30 and JJC 45.40 on Monday, both bullish now, but either one failing the level shown will result in broad market weakness.

For the SPX for Monday, the bulls have the wind at their backs and only need three points higher, to get up and over the key resistance at 1258, also the starting year number at 1257.64, and the large block buyers will enter the markets in force, driving the indexes much higher.  The bears will try to stop the upside momo by holding the 1258 resistance while at the same time trying to weaken the copper and semiconductor sectors.  A move thru SPX 1236-1256 is sideways action. There are no pre-scheduled numbers printing this week. The caution flag remains out since the European debt crisis can affect markets at any time.

12/18/11; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/11; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is -7
12/9/11; 11:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is -10
12/9/11; 10:00 AM EST = +6; signal line is -12

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