Friday, December 30, 2011


Keybot the Quant remains long as the last trading day of the year is set to begin.  The algo is idling along and has not printed a number since Tuesday afternoon.  The XLF remains above 12.80 so this keeps broad markets buoyant.  The semiconductors, SOX, are under 368.60 keeping the bears happy and preventing any substantial broad market move up. The retail sector, RTH, requires watching moving forward.  RTH is now at 112.48 firmly supporting the market bulls, but the negative divergence in place points to a downfall for retail as 2012 begins.

For now, XLF and SOX dictate broad market direction.  The bears will not make any headway down unless XLF fails at 12.80.  The bulls will not make any headway up unless the SOX moves above 368.60.  Whichever of these two flinches first will tell you the path of the broad markets.

For the SPX today, starting at 1263, if the market bulls can push higher by only a half a buck, and get up and over 1263.50, the day will go the bulls way and the broad indexes will finish on an up note.  The market bears need to take back yesterday's gains to regain momo which is a formidable task. The bulls, however, managed to retrace Wednesday's down move yesterday. Markets will float along sideways to end the year unless the XLF or SOX make a committment.  The SPX will probably dance around the starting year number of 1258 today as the last trading day plays out and determines whether the S&P finishes positive or negative on the year.

Keybot enjoys another highly successful year, navigating a prosperous path thru the 2011 mess.  The model will be closed out for 2011 after today's session and the results tallied for the record books.  The 2012 tallies will begin when trading starts for the new year on Tuesday, 1/2/12. Keybot wishes all a Happy and Healthy New Year, and a prosperous one as well.  With Keybot at the helm the prosperous part appears highly likely. Stay on guard. Markets remain unstable.

1/1/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2011 =
12/27/11; 3:37 PM EST = -10; signal line is -21
12/27/11; 11:09 AM EST = +6; signal line is -21
12/27/11; 10:52 AM EST = -10; signal line is -22

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