Thursday, January 19, 2012


Keybot the Quant remains long after another interesting day of trading.  The bullishness in the markets is quite remarkable and highlighted below. The CRB fell thru 311.50 today but recovered in the afternoon to help maintain broad market buoyancy.  The CRB 311.50 is the key item to watch as the Friday trade begins. Above and the bulls will float the indexes higher into the weekend.  If you see 311.50 fail first thing in the morning, the bears will push the broad markets lower.

For the SPX for Friday, starting at 1314.50, the bulls need one measley point higher, to move above 1315.50, and the upside orgy will continue with bulls looking for lamp shades to don, partying hardy into the weekend. If the bears can start the day with the CRB under 311.50, with a stronger dollar, and push the SPX lower to lose the 1308 handle, the bears will growl into the weekend and the bull party will come to a fast end.  A move thru 1309-1314 is sideways action. The 1314, 1316 and 1318 levels are very strong resistance levels, price pierced the 1314 level to close above today (so 1314 is now support). This 1314-1318 is a resistance gauntlet that should not succumb easy to the bull onslaught.

These markets continue to confound the short sellers.  The SPX has moved from 1200, in late November, to 1315, 115 points, in 36 trading days, or +9.6%.  Traders must have found bullish strength in that Thanksgiving Day turkey feast! The SPX is climbing about three points a day on average, each trading day, since late November!

These markets remain highly unstable and prone for an erratic move at anytime.  Stay on guard. The weakness in the utilities is cause for major concern if bullish since a move down in utes (UTIL topped in December) typically foretells extended and substantial broad market downside ahead. Watch CRB 311.50 and SPX 1315.50 and 1308.00 tomorrow for clues on market direction.  If the bears start to win the game, watch for failures at NYA 7691 (40-week MA) and SPX 1283 (12-month MA) which would signal an end to the bull rally.  For now, the bulls are looking around for lamp shades for Friday, with drink in hand, surely the party will never end, right?

1/22/12; 7:00 PM EST =
1/19/12; 1:13 PM EST = +64; signal line is +35
1/19/12; 12:38 PM EST = +50; signal line is +34
1/19/12; 9:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +32
1/19/12; 8:00 AM EST = +64; signal line is +31
1/18/12; 9:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29

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