Thursday, March 8, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to start the Thursday session. The quant printed nine numbers yesterday.  The semiconductors rejoined the bulls while copper languished sideways ending in the bear camp. CRB came down towards 313 but remains above favoring bulls.  Markets rallied yesterday as the Fed leaked news concerning a new sterilized quantitative easing program under consideration which sent markets higher and futures are higher overnight.  The junkie (markets) needs its crack cocaine (stimulus, quantitative easing).

Keybot did not whipsaw yesterday but with the hype around the Fed liquidity bump now goosing markets, the algorithm may move back to the long side after the opening bell.  If JJC, copper, moves above 48.43, now at 48.31, and if the SPX touches the 1355 handle, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.  The futures currently show the move to the long side on tap, but the BOE and ECB rate decisions are ahead, as well as the Greece debt drama, and considering the erratic and unstable nature of markets, expect anything.

If the opening gaps up, watch to see if the markets then move sideways with a slight upward bias, or, if markets drift lower. If SPX 1355 is held for 7 to 10 minutes, chances are that Keybot will probably flip long.  The 20-day MA is 1358.39 so pay close attention here; see if price comes up and hits its head and is knocked back down, or, if price slices up thru like a hot knife thru butter.  The ECB decision and press conference occurring shortly is important.

3/11/12; 7:00 PM EST =
3/9/12; 9:00 AM EST =
3/7/12; 3:53 PM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/7/12; 3:29 PM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short
3/7/12; 11:55 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/7/12; 11:40 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short
3/7/12; 11:17 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/7/12; 11:10 AM EST = +76; signal line is +66 but algorithm says stay short
3/7/12; 10:59 AM EST = +60; signal line is +66
3/7/12; 10:44 AM EST = +44; signal line is +66
3/7/12; 10:28 AM EST = +60; signal line is +67
3/6/12; 12:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +67; go short 1343; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +6.8%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2012 = +4.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.8%; Actual for 2012 = +7.4%)

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