Thursday, July 12, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as another active day occurs for the algo.  The quant is now fixated on three items; financials, volatility and retail.  Watch XLF 14.41, now under this level creating market bearishness. Watch VIX 18.75, now under creating market bullishness. Watch RTH 41.65, now over creating market bullishness.  Any change with these three parameters will cause the broad indexes to move in that respective direction.

For the SPX starting at 1335 for the final trading day of the week, the bulls need to touch 1341 to accelerate the upside.  The bears need to break thru 1325 to ignite a downside acceleration.  A move thru 1326-1340 is sideways action. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time.

7/15/12; 7:00 PM EST =
7/13/12; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/12; 11:49 AM EST = +0 signal line is +13
7/12/12; 11:25 AM EST = -14; signal line is +14
7/12/12; 10:00 AM EST = -30; signal line is +17
7/12/12; 9:30 AM EST = -14; signal line is +20
7/11/12; 3:02 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21

Note Added 7/13/12 at 5:57 AM:  China GDP is 7.6% remaining above their target for this year at 7.5%.  The global markets are bouncing copper believing that further China stimulus may be on tap.  The algo is tracking copper now, use JJC 44.15 as a proxy. If it stays below the markets will experience continuinig negativity but if JJC moves above 44.15, the bulls will be running strong. The more important event this morning is the bank earnings, JPM and WFC. JPM hits the fan in about one hour.  Referencing the XLF 14.41 number listed above, and considering how close the algo number is to the signal line, if the bank earnings are positive, bouncing the XLF above 14.41, there is a high liklihood that Keybot will flip to the long side.

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