Monday, July 23, 2012

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short. The algo printed a couple more numbers in the afternoon.  The bull-bear struggle continues and tomorrow's market direction will be decided by the VIX, volatility, at the opening bell.  The VIX closed at 18.62. If the VIX stays under 18.68, the bulls will continue the upward buoyancy. If the VIX moves above 18.68, the bears will reignite the market downside. Watch RTH 41.90 (now bullish) and NYA 7754 (now bearish). Any change to these two parameters will send the markets in that respective direction.

For the SPX starting at 1351, the bears need to drop under 1338 to accelerate the downside while the bulls need 1362 to accelerate the upside.  Each side requires a 12 handle move. A move thru 1339-1361 is sideways action. Caution is required since Keybot may whipsaw. Use VIX 18.68 as an instantaneous read on the broad indexes at the opening bell. If RTH drop under 41.90, the bears will move markets lower. If the NYA moves above 7754, the markets will be moving much higher.

7/29/12; 7:00 PM EST =
7/27/12; 10:00 AM EST =
7/23/12; 3:25 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31
7/23/12; 3:07 PM EST = +0; signal line is +31
7/23/12; 1:32 PM EST = +14; signal line is +31

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