Thursday, August 30, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a day of teetering towards the bear side.  Copper was weak as the day moved along which helped maintain market weakness.  The bears, however, were unable to move the SOX under 390 to kick in serious broad market selling. Keybot will likely flip short if JJC stays under 43.70 and the SOX falls under 390.  SOX fell to a LOD of 390.33, only 33 pennies away from flushing the markets.  Chairman Bernanke speaks tomorrow at 10 AM EST when the market story will be written.

The areas of interest to the quant right now are JJC 43.70, SOX 390, VIX 18.35, UTIL 464 and NYA 7835.  UTIL closed at 468.45 which will provide excitement tomorrow since price is only four points away from 464. In addition, the UTIL 50-week MA is 460, a trap door for the broad indexes; markets will drop into free fall if UTIL 460 is lost and it is only eight points away. Also of interest for the utilities sector is the UTIL 467.35 number for every day next week. Thus, the close tomorrow at 4 PM is very important since the 467.35 will be the comparison number as soon as the bell rings on Tuesday (markets are closed on Monday). If UTIL closes tomorrow under 467.35 at 4 PM consider that to be an all systems go signal for bears for Tuesday morning.

For the SPX, starting at 1399 support, the bulls need to touch 1410 and an upside acceleration to 1419 will occur in short order.  The bears need to push only two measley points lower, to drop under 1397, and a downside acceleration will occur to 1391 in quick order.  A move thru 1398-1409 is sideways action. Tomorrow will be a circus. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number at 10 AM so the market action can be updated at that time. In a nutshell, if JJC stays under 43.70, and one of the other four parameters listed above turn bearish, Keybot will likely flip short. A turn may be imminent tomorrow. If you see JJC move above 43.70, the market bulls will float the markets higher into the weekend.

9/2/12; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/31/12; 10:00 AM EST =
8/30/12; 10:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +52
8/30/12; 9:31 AM EST = +76; signal line is +52

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