Friday, August 3, 2012

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at the open today at SPX 1377. The whipsaw trade results in a one percent loss for the program and a three percent loss in the actual trading. Note that the benchmark SPX is up almost 10% in 2012. The gap-up and gap-down opening moves in the markets are a nuisance. The quant will now trade the single ETF's for the next 45 days to reduce risk since the markets whipsawed and have proven to be too erratic and indecisive.  Keybot moved into SPY today. Exercise continued caution, it would not be unreasonable to see a whipsaw back to the short side late today or early next week. Copper, which typically leads the markets, remains weak and continues to support the bear side. All other major sectors are on board with the bulls. SPX 1391 is strong overhead resistance. Watch XLF 14.50 and NYA 7760, handily in bull territory now.

8/5/12; 7:00 PM EST =
8/3/12; 9:30 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41; go long 1377; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +9.5%)(Keybot this trade = -1.2%; Keybot for 2012 = +9.2%)(Actual this trade = -3.3%; Actual for 2012 = +2.5%)
8/3/12; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm says stay short
8/2/12; 3:54 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm says stay short
8/2/12; 2:18 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/2/12; 2:03 PM EST = +16; signal line is +39
8/2/12; 12:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/2/12; 11:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +38; go short 1360; (Benchmark SPX for 2012  = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +0.8%; Keybot for 2012 = +10.4%)(Actual this trade = +0.4%; Actual for 2012 = +5.8%)

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